Official 2013 New York Mets Thread

[nmigliore]

Mets sweep the Phillies. Congrats to Wilfredo Tovar who had his first MLB hit that drove in a couple of runs.

 

Of course, this sudden hotstreak is killing the Mets in the reverse standings, as they now sit tied for the 9th spot with the Phillies and Jays. Since the Mets had a worse record than the Phillies last year but better record than the Jays, they'd pick 10th, the last of the protected picks, if the season ended today. The problem is the season doesn't end today, and in addition to those two teams, the Giants and Padres are also in the hunt only having a better record by 0.5 game and 1 game, respectively. Here is the remaining schedule for all of these teams:

 

Mets (7 GR): 3 @ Reds, 4 vs Brewers

Phillies (7 GR, tied with Mets): 3 @ Marlins, 4 @ Braves

Blue Jays (7 GR, tied with Mets and own tiebreaker): 1 @ White Sox, 3 @ Orioles, 3 vs Rays

Giants (6 GR, 0.5 game "ahead" of Mets): 3 vs Dodgers, 3 vs Padres

Padres (7 GR, 1 game "ahead" of Mets): 4 vs D-Backs, 3 @ Giants

 

 

Edited September 23, 2013 by nmigliore

['7']

The Reds are a nightmare matchup for the Mets. I honestly can't remember the last time we beat Cincy...would be shocked if the Mets won a game here

 

Milwaukee on the other hand will likely just be here to play out the string and enjoy the NYC nightlife. So I can see the Mets taking 3 of 4. That'll put us at 74 wins and right on the border of protected pick status

Edited September 23, 2013 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

The funny thing about all of this protected-pick talk is that the Mets/Sandy clearly didn't care about it...in a perfect world (their view), Harvey would've remained healthy and the Mets would've found a way to challenge for .500...hell, if Harvey hadn't gotten hurt and the Mets were winning, maybe Byrd still would've been here.   

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Wright striking out in a big spot...can't say that that came as any great shock.  He'll never be a guy who makes pitchers nervous with the game on the line. 

 

Doofus is doing about what Doofus does...occasional home run, pretty solid OB%, low batting avg...starting to get a sinking feeling he's going to get one last opportunity here...God I hope not. 

[NJDevs4978]

Choo certainly went off last night...auditioning for a possible future employer lol

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Choo certainly went off last night...auditioning for a possible future employer lol

 

Career-high .423 OB% this season...he's at .389 career.  God knows the Mets can use guys like that, especially since it looks like Murph (.317) will be back.  Admittedly his age scares me a bit...he's 31 and probably nearing the end of his peak.   

[NJDevs4978]

His age worries me in terms of speed but he has played 144+ games in four of the last five years at least.

 

What my bigger concern is with Choo (and I followed him closely this year since he was on my fantasy team lol) is his horrendous splits against lefties.  He may be an every-day player fielding and durability-wise but he sure ain't an every-day hitter.  OTOH his utter lack of production against lefties show just how good he is against righties.  And his RBI total is only bad because they've been using him at leadoff, though we would have to use him there too perhaps.

 

vs. Left ('13) .210-0 HR-8 RBI in 176 AB, ('10-12) .239-4-37 in 507 AB

vs. Right ('13) .320-21 HR-46 RBI in 378 AB, ('10-12) .308-42-156 in 954 AB

[nmigliore]

I don't really worry about the splits because he easily makes up for it by torching righties. It's not like Cincy has shielded him vs lefties this year -- he has over 200 PA against them -- yet he's still 8th in offensive runs above average this season (3rd among outfielders). Check out 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012 and it's the same story (great overall numbers despite his limitations vs LHP). He had a down year in 2011 but he had thumb surgery that season which sapped his power.

 

Choo is probably looking at 5/90ish in this market. Age and defense would be my biggest concern with him; he'll be 32 next July and he's below average anywhere you put him in the outfield (he absolutely belongs in a corner, not CF like Cincy is using him). Still, I think he could be a good addition at the right price.

 

Granderson's market is worth monitoring too; guys like Pence and Choo are better than him, but Granderson is going to get way less because he missed a big chunk of this season and has been pretty mediocre (102 wRC+) when he has played whereas Pence and Choo are having career years. Still, he was a pretty good player from 2010-2012, even topping Pence and Choo in fWAR in that timeframe, so he could make for a much cheaper-if-not-so-much-worse addition.

Edited September 24, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Granderson hit .232 and struck out 195 times in 2012 (160 games) and is hitting .234 this year...only 29 doubles since the start of 2012 (215 GP).  He does draw some walks, but the guy strikes out a ton.  He'll also be 33 by the time the 2014 season starts.  He has hit a whole lot of home runs as a Yankee, but I have a feeling he's not doing that again.  He has potential disaster written all over him...I could see him putting on the Met uniform, missing 40+ games due to injury, then hitting in the .220s and striking out a whole bunch...while hitting 15-20 home runs.  No thanks to that.   

[nmigliore]

Of course he has his flaws, but that's why he might only get a 2 year deal. I think he could be a ~3-win player next season if healthy. Even this season he's managed to be worth close to 2 wins (fWAR) despite 220 PA. Pence and Choo are younger and better but aren't repeating their 2013's; after regression, they might not be so much better, yet will easily cost 5 or more years and a salary approaching $100M.

 

One huge thing on Granderson that is worth pointing out is the Yankees should (and probably will) offer him the Qualifying Offer. If that happens, and the Mets' pick is unprotected, he's an absolute NO for me. At the same time, if the Mets' pick IS protected, a QO can kill the market for a guy like Granderson, making him a decent buy for a team who would just lose their 2nd rounder (that or he'd accept the Yankees' QO).

 

Remember, I said he's a guy whose market is worth monitoring; I'm not saying we should target him. 

Edited September 24, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I understood you nmig...I know the tone of your post wasn't "Let's go out and get this guy, it's a no-brainer."  I just don't want him at all.  It has the feel of a potentially decent signing that won't work out, for a variety of reasons. 

 

It feels like it would be yet another stop-gap kind of signing, and though a stop-gap move like that may make some sense (and might even work out, Byrd-style), I guess I'm getting tired of Sandy spinning his wheels.  If the Sandy is starting to think 2015 will be the "big step forward" year, then I guess I could deal with Granderson on a one-year deal, but I won't want him for any longer than that. 

[nmigliore]

I'm just curious: what would you do about the outfield? Would you pay the market price for any one of Pence, Choo, or Ellsbury? You don't like Granderson but would you take a 1-year flier on PED-clouded Nelson Cruz? Bring back Byrd despite the age concern and out-of-nowhere season? Grab a stop-gap like McLouth or DeJesus? 

 

Personally, I don't know what I want yet. I do think they should stick with Lagares in CF, because his glove alone makes him worth starting. He's probably not going to repeat a +17 UZR and +24 DRS again, but he can offset some of that if his bat shows some progression. I think the Mets should let the market dictate what they do. "Targeting" a specific player is how you end up with a mess of a deal. So in essence, I'm open to just about anything. 

 

I won't make a mistake about it though: I do like Choo the most out of the corner outfielders. If you told me the Mets signed him to a reasonable deal (let's say 5/80) and added a respectable stopgap to play the other OF corner on a short-term deal, I would be pretty happy with that.  

Edited September 24, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

It's not a great FA market, for sure...Pence, Choo, and Ellsbury all make me a little nervous, especially since, like you say, all three will get "market price" (read:  overpaid, as FAs tend to be).  Any one of those guys would feel like a "cross your fingers and hope for the best"-type signing, and I get the feeling the Mets will have to pay an additional premium to get any one of them. 

 

Agree, I would stick with Lagares in CF and hope he improves at the plate...IIRC he wasn't even really in the 2013 plans, but wound up on the Mets when Cowgill crashed and burned, so he probably wasn't 100% ready. 

 

Also agree that the Mets should be open-minded and flexible in their approach.  Unfortunately, with recent trainwrecks like Bay, I think there's always a feeling that the Mets are doomed no matter who they bring aboard.  I just wish I knew if Sandy is targeting 2014 or 2015. 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

I'm still very much looking forward to this offseason and next year (despite my reactionary comments at the time of the Harvey news) but there's no doubt having Harvey would be so huge and get me even more giddy for 2014. I mean, by June, could you imagine this potential rotation?: Harvey-Wheeler-Syndergaard-Niese-Gee ... that doesn't even account for Montero who may get a starting job right out of spring training regardless of what happens with Harvey.

 

I think adding a Pence or Choo would fit no matter which year Sandy has in mind; regardless of which one you choose to sign, you're absolutely going to project them to be quite good in 2015, or else you wouldn't sign them in the first place since they will require 5 or more year commitments.

 

Off topic: Mets are selling standing room only tickets for Sunday, so it looks like there will be a good crowd on hand for Piazza's Met HoF induction. I wish they used this to retire his number too. 

Edited September 24, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I'm looking forward to the offseason too.  I wonder if Syndergaard and/or Montero are candidates to make the team with strong springs, or if they're both going to AAA no matter what for extra seasoning (with a chance to get called up by June).  Only Sandy can answer that one.  Don't forget that Mejia is at least in the picture too. 

 

Niese and Gee could be terrific #4 and #5 types...don't think there are too many teams out there with guys like them pitching at the bottom of their rotations.  Hell, since Niese seems like he's the most fragile, make him the #5 to start 2014.   

 

Yeah, if Sandy goes with Pence, Choo, or Ellsbury, clearly the hope it's not 2014 or bust...I'm guessing the Mets would probably have to pay a "Met Premium" of 6 years for any one of those players...I think if the Mets got good 2014-16 seasons out of whomever they choose, they'd take it, and hope the remaining years aren't terrible.   

[nmigliore]

Niese and Gee could be terrific #4 and #5 types...don't think there are too many teams out there with guys like them pitching at the bottom of their rotations.  Hell, since Niese seems like he's the most fragile, make him the #5 to start 2014.    

 

Speaking of those two:

 

Jon Niese since returning from the DL (August 11th): 53 IP, 21.7 K%, 5.4 BB%, 3.06 ERA, .699 OPS against

Dillon Gee since May 30th (granted this is entirely arbitrary): 143.1 IP, 17.7 K%, 4.8 BB%, 2.57 ERA, .672 OPS against

 

Obviously they won't maintain being THIS good in 2014 but it's so great to see these guys healthy and pitching so well after rough starts. It wasn't long ago where Niese was pitching very un-Niese-like before going down with a sore shoulder while Gee was trying to lick his wounds from the beating he took in the first two months, causing us to panic a bit and begin to wonder if they really were future pieces. 

Edited September 24, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

I agree, can't see either one of them maintaining that pace, but a 2.57 ERA is terrific stuff for a 143.1 IP stretch.   

 

As long as both pitchers can maintain even what they've done overall (with reasonable consistency), I'd happily take it.  We're not asking them to be #1 and #2, just #4 and #5.  Even at #3 and #4, they'd still be solid.  My thing with Niese is to try to limit his innings by cutting back on his expected starts...he seems like a guy who should ideally be making 27 starts or so a season, which is fine for a #5.   

 

But sadly, and maddeningly, as we've seen, getting these damned starting pitchers to finish a season with roughly 33 starts or so seems like a friggin' impossible task.

 

Number of starting pitchers the Mets have used this season?  10

 

Here's the number of starts each one made:

 

Gee:  30 (he gets one more on Thursday...he'll be the only Met starter to possibly crack 200 IP)

Harvey:  26, OFS

Hefner:  23 (remember him?), OFS

Niese:  22, missed time on DL

Wheeler:  17 (+13 minor league starts).  168.2 IP total, shutdown

Marcum:  12, OFS, can't seem to stay healthy

Torres:  8 (+12 minor league).  Only given a chance to start permanently with the Mets due to others being injured

Dice K:  6, and we know why he's here.  He's managed to turn in three respectable starts in a row at least...that's three more than any of us had any right to expect.

Mejia:  5, OFS, can't seem to stay healthy

Harang:  3, (25 overall).  Here because the Mets don't care if he gets hurt.

 

Of course, as much as we all want to fantasize about a Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Gee, and Niese rotation, it would be a miracle if 80% of the starts were made by those guys even if Harvey wasn't trying to avoid Tommy John surgery.  The guess here is whatever rotation the Mets start the season with, at least two of those guys will spend time on the DL.  And guys like the Torreses and deGroms (or guys like them) will have to fill in. 

 

I can sympathize with GMs at times...planning a rotation has got to be a real bitch these days.  There's not one guy the Mets can realistically pencil in for an automatic 200 IP next season. 

 

EDIT:  Forgot about Laffey (two starts) and McHugh (one start).  So that's 12 starting pitchers. 

Edited September 25, 2013 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

3-run homer for Murph!

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Niese actually has a shot at a winning record if he makes his final start (last game of the season).  I know ERA doesn't tell the whole story, but Niese has put up ERAs of 3.40 and 3.74 the past two seasons (the two best seasonal ERAs of his career).  He's got his flaws...he's pretty hittable, and not terribly durable or a great innings guy, but has shown that he can be a pretty good #4 or #5 (I think that was the projection as he came up through the Mets' system).  Last year had the Mets thinking possible #2, which he clearly isn't.  As long as the Mets realize what he is, and provided he stays reasonably healthy, he can be a solid performer for at least a few more years here, maybe even longer (he'll only be 27 years old by the start of 2014). 

 

Murphy has had such a bizarre year.  The classic numbers look good for a second baseman at a quick glance:  .285 BA, 13 HR, 76 RBI.  182 hits.  Even has 20 stolen bases.  Hits doubles (36).  Has somehow turned himself into a decent defensive player.   

 

Then there's the other stuff.  Just 31 walks drawn (.318 OB%).  Unconscious can't-get-him-out streaks followed by extended invisible offensive valleys. 

 

The problem with the above is I have a feeling Eric Young is coming back next season.  EY's slash line as a Met is .255/.323/.660, and that line is buoyed by the hot start he got off to as a Met.  His career slash is .259/.327/.667, so suffice it to say we shouldn't expect any better over the course of a full season than what EY has given the Mets overall. 

 

The top two hitters in the 2014 Mets lineup getting on base at roughly a .320 clip combined (if all remains status quo) is going to be a problem...especially since both players are prone to long slumps.  Something has to be done about it.  I would try to upgrade over Young (a guy like Choo will cost a lot, but he DOES get on base), and if Murph is staying, I'd drop him down to seventh in the order and try to find a better second-place hitter.  If one believes that Ike Davis' sudden ability to get on base via any means possible is for real (who knows), he might be a decent candidate, even if he can't run.   

 

Still wondering aloud if Sandy would even consider bringing Reyes back.  He's not really a great answer to the Mets' top-of-the-lineup OB% woes (.342 career OB%), and he's missed a ton of games over the last five seasons (262 of them), and I can't say the idea of a Reyes-Wright reunion thrills me.  But the Mets don't really have a shortstop, and the fact that Reyes still has a lot of coin coming to him (4 more years left on his current deal, with a 2018 team option) means he might not cost much, in terms of players going back the other way.  I'm not saying I would do it - he's just too damned injury-prone now, and I don't see that improving as he gets older - but I wonder if the Mets are even thinking about it.  I thought he was maddening quite often, but he was a popular player with many Mets fans while he was here.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Eric Young is an easy guy to root for but yeah, he's not good. He's been an excellent baserunner (+9.4 BsR, leads the NL) but even that hasn't nearly been enough to make him very useful despite getting tons of playing time. I have little doubt he'll be on next year's team, unfortunately, but hopefully it's just in a utility role. Sandy would have to be a moron to enter the season with him as a starter anywhere. Even if he has to scrap heap in LF he could do way better than that.

 

I think a big part of your negative perspective on Murphy is something out of his control -- batting high in the order. Not that TC has much to work with anyway, but he's the one putting Murphy's biggest offensive flaw in the spotlight. If he were batting like 7th, I think you'd view him in a more optimistic light ("hey, THIS guy is our 7th hitter?"), but again, that's totally out of Murph's control. He's a solid regular, something the 2014 Mets don't have many of right now behind David Wright. 

 

It doesn't hurt to gauge trade interest in a player, it's due diligence really, but I don't think you'd get fair value for Murph because of his skillset.

 

re: Reyes - I'd love to bring him back. He's still one of the best SS when healthy. I know it's easy to knock his health, but even a ~500 PA/year Reyes is a massive upgrade over the crap we've thrown out there the last two years. I don't see any indication Toronto will move him though.

Edited September 25, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

That's why I keep saying Murph should be batting 7th...if that was the case in 2014, I think the Mets could definitely live with him at second base.  The only way the Mets should be batting him second next season is if he finds a way to hit .320+, or draw about twice as many walks over the course of a full season.  I don't see either of those things happening, but I have a strong feeling that the he is already penciled in as the second place hitter for 2014.  I have always been a fan of putting players where they are best able to succeed...like you said, Collins and the Mets stubbornly sticking Murph in the second spot in the order is doing him a disservice.  So don't hit him there...drop him to seventh (he hits enough that, if the Mets have a decent middle-of-the-order, he should be able to get his share of runs home) and find someone better equipped to handle the second-place job...like I said, the solution may actually be in house in Ike Davis, though I'm not definitely going to put all of my eggs in THAT basket.     

[nmigliore]

One thing you can kill TC for: Eric Young batting leadoff is so much more egregious than Murphy batting 2nd. At least with Murphy, despite his on-base flaws, he's an above average MLB hitter by wRC+ and OPS+ (doesn't make it ideal, but you get the idea). Young just flat out stinks at the plate, from both sides. Managers are obsessed with the "speed at the top" fallacy. With the caveat that lineup construction isn't nearly as important as it's perceived to be, the idea is to get your best hitters at the top, not construct a lineup based on hitter types. If the Mets hypothetically signed Choo next year they should really bat he and Wright #1 and #2 but we all know that has no chance of happening. Wright will forever be #3 or down.

Edited September 25, 2013 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

As much as it's nice to have "speed at the top", it can't come at the expense of everything else, I agree.  It doesn't mean much if you're speedy, but can't get on base...and EY hasn't been doing that for a solid two months now. 

 

Part of the problem with EY is that it seems like everyone associated with the Mets has been very slow to realize that he's been pretty bad at the plate since 7/19:  .232 BA, .292 OB%...from their leadoff guy no less!  This is Omar Quintanilla-type performance.  It feels like he's been living off that June 19-July 19 burst he enjoyed when he first got here for waaaaaaaaaay too long. 

['7']

I say all in for Choo. Last year the Mets lost their man (Bourn) but lucked out with Byrd and flipped Byrd for some pretty decent pieces. Give him the 5 years at 31, the guy still has some power, speed, and is just a pain in the ass to get out. Sort of reminds me of Abreu. Choo is one of those "rising tides lifts all hitters" type of guys due to the amount of time he will spend on base. Wright will get more AB's with runners on.

 

1b, make the decision. Ike or Duda. Basically we know what we can get from both at this point. Ike probably has a slightly higher HR ceiling, but he is also capable of falling into a black hole and hitting .160 well into July. That's unacceptable and CANNOT happen again. At least with Duda. Over a full season I think he would probably bottom out at .235, maybe top out at .260, and hit his share of dingers. 

 

I would like to perhaps bring in Paul Konerko to platoon at 1b with Duda (if he doesn't retire) Konerko still crushes lefties.

 

Granderson would be such a wild card...very worried about him turning into the lefty Bay here. Another option would be just bringing back Marlon Byrd...part of me believes the handshake agreement is already in place.

 

Lagares. As good as he's been in the outfield (and he's been great) I'm not sold on him as an everyday hitter. Right now he's sort of Andrelton Simmons without as much pop. But I'd like Lagares to have an obp of at least .315 or so.

Edited September 25, 2013 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

No to Duda.  He sucks.  These are the kinds of guys I want the Mets to make a clean break from.  He's hitting .208 since his recall (70 AB), with 28 K.  1-for-his-last-22.  He had yet another opportunity to show "I can be an everyday player", and he's failed.  I'm so done with him. 

 

I agree that Davis is a risk, and I'm afraid of another .160-in-mid-June trainwreck too, but if I have to choose between them, I'm going with Davis at this point.