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Summer 2013 UFA/RFA Thread


Derlique

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I wouldn't be surprised if Ponikarovsky got no NHL offers, or if he did get them, they were under seven figures.  He's 33 and had his worst NHL season.  He's a third-liner at best right now.  There's a lot of other attractive FAs still available.  Who's signing Alexei Ponikarovsky?

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Poni overachieved during the finals run and came back to earth last season. Oh well. Off topic, I tend to avoid Hovkeybuzz because of all the speculative rumors that they spread, but anyone have any info on how legit the Mussa guy is?

 

Not legit at all. He only seems to pop in with a blog article when there's something really obvious and noteworthy to report (like opening day roster, or new mega-signing). Otherwise, not sure what he would know that's from the inside.

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Schneider will get more than Crawford

 

o'rly?

 

for that to happen, he will at least have to mirror his career numbers as a starter for the next two years and probably win at least two playoff rounds.

 

crawford has been a full starter for 3 years. schneider, i suppose was this past year - sort of. oh, crawford also won a cup and was pretty awesome in doing so.

 

i hope he's in line for that kind of contract, but can't say for sure now.

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Schneider will get more than Crawford

o'rly?

for that to happen, he will at least have to mirror his career numbers as a starter for the next two years and probably win at least two playoff rounds.

crawford has been a full starter for 3 years. schneider, i suppose was this past year - sort of. oh, crawford also won a cup and was pretty awesome in doing so.

i hope he's in line for that kind of contract, but can't say for sure now.

There are two scenarios, 1. he gets signed at the end of this year, which means he had a good year, and will get AAV of at least $6.5 million, 2. he has a bad year, which means no contract going into 2014-2015, and is likely traded to recoup some value.

I was going to say he could have a good year and try to test the marke anyway, but he would really have to hate NJ to take that kind of chance.

Ultimately, I think he's getting more than Crawford. He's better than Crawford, and the Devils need Schneider a lot more than the Hawks need Crawford.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

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There are two scenarios, 1. he gets signed at the end of this year, which means he had a good year, and will get AAV of at least $6.5 million, 2. he has a bad year, which means no contract going into 2014-2015, and is likely traded to recoup some value. I was going to say he could have a good year and try to test the marke anyway, but he would really have to hate NJ to take that kind of chance. Ultimately, I think he's getting more than Crawford. He's better than Crawford, and the Devils need Schneider a lot more than the Hawks need Crawford. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

Why speculate he is going to have a good year both seasons, I know it summer and that's what is done in the summer.

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There are two scenarios, 1. he gets signed at the end of this year, which means he had a good year, and will get AAV of at least $6.5 million, 2. he has a bad year, which means no contract going into 2014-2015, and is likely traded to recoup some value. I was going to say he could have a good year and try to test the marke anyway, but he would really have to hate NJ to take that kind of chance. Ultimately, I think he's getting more than Crawford. He's better than Crawford, and the Devils need Schneider a lot more than the Hawks need Crawford. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

 

It's incredibly unlikely that the Devils deal Schneider.  As for Schneider getting more than Crawford, remember - the goalie market is an odd place.  Here are the teams with a goalie signed for starter money for at least the next 3 years:

 

Boston, Chicago, LA, Phoenix, Dallas, Vancouver, Columbus, Nashville, Detroit, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Montreal, Carolina

 

Then you've got teams like the Rangers who have goalies they're going to lock up.

 

Then you've got teams like Toronto and Ottawa and Washington who have impressive young goalies.

 

When you go hunting for places for Schneider to land, there just aren't very many likely destinations, especially if he wants to stay East.  Philadelphia?  They actually do have a lot of money coming free on their cap, but I bet they end up with Ryan Miller.  Pittsburgh?  That's an awful lot of money to invest in the top of your roster.

 

I think Schneider will end up with a comparable contract to Crawford - I doubt it's substantially more or less.  If it's substantially more it's because he's done what's expected of him here.

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Less than 2 weeks until training camp, its hard to believe brunner wont be signed somewhere this year. Capgeek says we're 3.8 under the cap, idk if lou is willing sign him anymore and have no wiggle room with the cap.

 

Lou recently said that we are done barring something unforeseen (trade, injury, etc.).  Therefore, I doubt they will make any offer to Brunner.  Can't believe nobody picked him up. 

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It's incredibly unlikely that the Devils deal Schneider.  As for Schneider getting more than Crawford, remember - the goalie market is an odd place.  Here are the teams with a goalie signed for starter money for at least the next 3 years:

 

Boston, Chicago, LA, Phoenix, Dallas, Vancouver, Columbus, Nashville, Detroit, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Montreal, Carolina

 

Then you've got teams like the Rangers who have goalies they're going to lock up.

 

Then you've got teams like Toronto and Ottawa and Washington who have impressive young goalies.

 

When you go hunting for places for Schneider to land, there just aren't very many likely destinations, especially if he wants to stay East.  Philadelphia?  They actually do have a lot of money coming free on their cap, but I bet they end up with Ryan Miller.  Pittsburgh?  That's an awful lot of money to invest in the top of your roster.

 

I think Schneider will end up with a comparable contract to Crawford - I doubt it's substantially more or less.  If it's substantially more it's because he's done what's expected of him here.

 

I would include Buffalo as a potential landing spot as well. 

 

I see Schneider getting more of premium from the Devils based on what the Devils had to give up to get him.  What the exact number is, depends on what you mean by "substantially more".  If I had to guess, if the Devils make the playoffs, he has a save percentage of better than .925 and a GAA of 2.05 or less, he'll get an AAV of $7.5 million. 

 

And I think there is a better chance he gets dealt if there's no extension by the middle of next summer.  The new CBA being what it is, and the Devils being out of the woods financially speaking, he can't expect to get more money from another team, or at least not significantly more, to make it worth his while to take a chance of going another year without an extension.  If he goes that route, it's a pretty clear sign that he wants to play somewhere else.  I think Lou is done losing top players that could otherwise get you a good return for nothing. 

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I would include Buffalo as a potential landing spot as well. 

 

I see Schneider getting more of premium from the Devils based on what the Devils had to give up to get him.  What the exact number is, depends on what you mean by "substantially more".  If I had to guess, if the Devils make the playoffs, he has a save percentage of better than .925 and a GAA of 2.05 or less, he'll get an AAV of $7.5 million. 

 

And I think there is a better chance he gets dealt if there's no extension by the middle of next summer.  The new CBA being what it is, and the Devils being out of the woods financially speaking, he can't expect to get more money from another team, or at least not significantly more, to make it worth his while to take a chance of going another year without an extension.  If he goes that route, it's a pretty clear sign that he wants to play somewhere else.  I think Lou is done losing top players that could otherwise get you a good return for nothing. 

 

I think we, as a fanbase, need to drop the 'nobody wants to play here' thing. He has no reason to leave. He's as close as he's going to get to home, and the Devils will have the money to pay him. He knows he will be set here as the starter for as long as the contract lasts, unless Wedgewood really comes out of nowhere.

 

As for the money, he will tout those numbers if he has them, but Crawford has been a starter for a few years and just won a cup. In the end it should even out. They can start talking contract with him in January, and he can sign in July. Hopefully it doesn't even get to his UFA year.

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I think we, as a fanbase, need to drop the 'nobody wants to play here' thing. He has no reason to leave. He's as close as he's going to get to home, and the Devils will have the money to pay him. He knows he will be set here as the starter for as long as the contract lasts, unless Wedgewood really comes out of nowhere.

 

As for the money, he will tout those numbers if he has them, but Crawford has been a starter for a few years and just won a cup. In the end it should even out. They can start talking contract with him in January, and he can sign in July. Hopefully it doesn't even get to his UFA year.

 

Just to be clear, I've never bought into the "no one wants to play here" thing, and I have no idea what Schneider's thoughts are, at least not right now. 

 

What I'm saying is that money is not really an issue to the point that, theoretically anyway, the Devils could make him the highest paid goalie in hockey.  Barring an injury or a really crappy season, Lou will begin extension discussions as soon as possible, if he hasn't done so already (I think they can discuss an extension at any time), and will look to have a deal done as a early as possible.  If something isn't done by then, it's a sign that Schneider, for whatever reason, wants to play somewhere else. 

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I would include Buffalo as a potential landing spot as well. 

 

I see Schneider getting more of premium from the Devils based on what the Devils had to give up to get him.  What the exact number is, depends on what you mean by "substantially more".  If I had to guess, if the Devils make the playoffs, he has a save percentage of better than .925 and a GAA of 2.05 or less, he'll get an AAV of $7.5 million. 

 

And I think there is a better chance he gets dealt if there's no extension by the middle of next summer.  The new CBA being what it is, and the Devils being out of the woods financially speaking, he can't expect to get more money from another team, or at least not significantly more, to make it worth his while to take a chance of going another year without an extension.  If he goes that route, it's a pretty clear sign that he wants to play somewhere else.  I think Lou is done losing top players that could otherwise get you a good return for nothing. 

 

Both of these points are ridiculous.  One, you don't have any idea how long his contract will be.  8 years 7.5M would be nuts.  Second, you don't know what the market for him would be - I've suggested it won't be that great, but what if someone like the Islanders wanted to make a splash in Brooklyn?  Unlikely, but not impossible.  8 year contracts for goalies are officially batsh!t.

 

Second, the Devils would get a limited return back for Schneider if they dealt him next summer.  Who out there has goalie as their missing piece and has the room for a $4M one at that point?  And he's lost a year off his deal, which is a large part of his value.  I expect NJ to make a competitive offer but they haven't been afraid of losing top players to free agency, and Schneider is giving up some risk by signing a year early, which usually means the player gives something up as well (namely, a shot at the 'best offer').

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Both of these points are ridiculous.  One, you don't have any idea how long his contract will be.  8 years 7.5M would be nuts.  Second, you don't know what the market for him would be - I've suggested it won't be that great, but what if someone like the Islanders wanted to make a splash in Brooklyn?  Unlikely, but not impossible.  8 year contracts for goalies are officially batsh!t.

 

Second, the Devils would get a limited return back for Schneider if they dealt him next summer.  Who out there has goalie as their missing piece and has the room for a $4M one at that point?  And he's lost a year off his deal, which is a large part of his value.  I expect NJ to make a competitive offer but they haven't been afraid of losing top players to free agency, and Schneider is giving up some risk by signing a year early, which usually means the player gives something up as well (namely, a shot at the 'best offer').

 

You're right I have no idea how long the deal would be, and that's not what I was even talking about.  We're using the Crawford contract as a measuring stick.  And I think if Schneider puts up the same numbers that he did in Vancouver, he could expect to get more, probably an AAV of $1 more per year than Crawford.  So if it makes you feel better, assuming Schneider puts up the stats I mentioned above, and that the Devils make the playoffs, six years, $45 million.  As I said, he's a better goalie than Crawford, and the Devils need Schneider a lot more than the Hawks need Crawford. 

 

And in a trade before or around the start of next year, Schneider could easily get you a first round pick from a good team or a second line forward prospect, especially from a team that got bad goal tending in the playoffs.  Whether you consider that a limited return, I can't tell you. 

 

ADDENDUM:  A $7.5 million cap hit for Schneider will also make things a wash so far as total goalie cap hit, which is now $8.5 million. 

Edited by Daniel
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