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Devils trade #9 pick in 2013 Draft to Vancouver for Cory Schneider


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It doesn't help when you ignore the substance of the argument. 

 

But in any event, if you're right, I'll freely admit it.  Somehow I don't think you will.

 

The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

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No it won't.  It will just be another single instance to go along with many other instances.

 

Exactly what I was thinking, but Daniel take a look at some cases around the NHL like I did when Tri originally brought this point up. Check out Osgood's entire career where his numbers in NY and St Louis were right on par with the numbers he had with the great Detroit Red Wings. Look at goalies who played on expansion teams like Dunham, Tugnutt, Denis and Fernandez, and compare their numbers before, after and during. Look at some of the best goalies to play the game like Hasek, Belfour and  Joseph, and see that none of them had better save percentages when they were on the better teams.

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The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

 

Like I said, there's the issue of shots being undercounted at Devils home games.  There are also attributes that Brodeur has -- puck handling -- that might result in fewer shots against, but a higher ratio of quality shots against versus total shots.

 

We will see.

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The substance is that changing teams doesn't drastically effect a goalies save percentage, correct?

 

If so, there are tons of goalies that have changed teams, Schneider is just another in a long line of those.  Why is his change more telling than all the other goalies?

 

The only thing this will show is how good Schneider is since he hasn't played extensively. Theoretically he could've been playing above his talent or NJ's undercounting of shots will hurt him a lot, but worst case he's something like a .915-20 goalie I guess. He's not gonna turn into Brodeur's .901 or whatever barring something ridiculous

Edited by DH26
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Tri has discussed this quite a bit (and posted this link: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/7/3/shot-quality-matters-but-how-much), but I don't think you can expect Schneider's numbers to jump at all. 

 

The Devils gave up fewer shots than every team in the league last year, but probably gave up the same amount of scoring chances in proportion to total shots as most other teams.  And as Tri also mentioned the other day, we have hundreds of examples that show save percentage doesn't change much when a goalie changes teams.

 

I should add that the Devils system is a perfect match for a great goalie like Schneider. The Devils should be one of the top defensive teams next season in GA, and Schneider should be blanking a lot of teams.

 

well let's hope so cause we're certainly not gonna score a lot of goals.

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Exactly what I was thinking, but Daniel take a look at some cases around the NHL like I did when Tri originally brought this point up. Check out Osgood's entire career where his numbers in NY and St Louis were right on par with the numbers he had with the great Detroit Red Wings. Look at goalies who played on expansion teams like Dunham, Tugnutt, Denis and Fernandez, and compare their numbers before, after and during. Look at some of the best goalies to play the game like Hasek, Belfour and  Joseph, and see that none of them had better save percentages when they were on the better teams.

 

And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

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Like I said, there's the issue of shots being undercounted at Devils home games.  There are also attributes that Brodeur has -- puck handling -- that might result in fewer shots against, but a higher ratio of quality shots against versus total shots.

 

We will see.

 

I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

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I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

 

Do we know if Vancouver's arena over or undercounted shots? I'd imagine if anything it's overcounting since he had the best SV% in the league or whatever over the last couple years so maybe that was artificially inflated a little though Luongo's was only above .920 two times I think in VAN

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I doubt they're so severely undercounted that Brodeur's .901 would have been THAT much better with another team's shot counters.

 

Look, I've always been and always will be a Brodeur defender and not a detractor, but his GAA was definitely propped up by the Devils' ability to keep shots and chances down. 

 

I'll go ahead and predict that Schneider will probably be .015-.020 or better than Brodeur next season...admittedly not a bold prediction, but this is a way of saying that if Schneider is at all hurt by Devils' shot-counters undercounting like Brodeur might be, the save% differential between the two goalies will remain intact.

 

I'm not a reflexive Marty defender or detractor and don't consider myself reflexively anti-save percentage, although I suppose I come off that way sometimes, which I shouldn't do. 

 

There's this tendency though to look for magic formulas that will tell you all about how good or bad a particular player is.  Those things can be useful indicators of performance.  But useful does not mean the end all be all. 

 

Also, re Schneider's save percentage.  He's clearly a better goalie now than Marty is, or anyone would be shocked if their save percentages were the same, when they're playing for the same team.  The interesting stats will be, the difference between Schneider's save percentage in Vancouver versus in NJ, and the difference between Marty and Schneider's goals against, assuming they play roughly equal time.  The first will show whether there is something unique to playing for the Devils that results in lower save percentages, and the second might show whether there's something unique about Marty that results in a lower save percentage, but a solid goals against average.

 

The thing about polarization that Marty tends to bring out in people is the fact that he's played for the same team his entire career and, except for the end of his career, there hasn't been a backup that you can really compare him to, maybe in 2008-2009, but that's about it. 

Edited by Daniel
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And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

 

There are goalies whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly without changing teams.  Like Giguere, Theodore, and so forth.  The trouble is you are counting this player's best year as representative when they have had lots of subpar years for the very teams you're claiming might've boosted their percentage.  Year to year save percentage fluctuations are much greater than team effects (barring enormous jumps in PKs against, etc.).

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Do we know if Vancouver's arena over or undercounted shots? I'd imagine if anything it's overcounting since he had the best SV% in the league or whatever over the last couple years so maybe that was artificially inflated a little though Luongo's was only above .920 two times I think in VAN

 

As of 2010, this guy claims that Vancouver undercounts, but not as much as NJ

 

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/03/shot-recording-bias-part-n.html

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There are goalies whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly without changing teams.  Like Giguere, Theodore, and so forth.  The trouble is you are counting this player's best year as representative when they have had lots of subpar years for the very teams you're claiming might've boosted their percentage.  Year to year save percentage fluctuations are much greater than team effects (barring enormous jumps in PKs against, etc.).

 

You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that. 

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And for all of those goalies, I'll give you a bunch whose save percentages have fluctuated significantly between teams.  Theodore; Giguere; Bryzgalov; Mike Smith; Ray Emery; Irbe and that's just a few that come to mind.

 

You should count the misses as much as you do your hits.

 

How has Giguere's fluctuated significantly? He has posted almost identical save percentage numbers with bad Leafs and Avalanche teams as he had with the 2006-2007 Cup team with the Ducks that had two HOF defensemen. Ray Emery has put up better save percentage numbers with the Flyers, Ducks and Blackhawks then he did in 2/3 seasons he had with the (class of the East) Senators.

 

As Tri just mentioned, goalies like Bryzgalov and Theodore have had incredible highs and lows with the same team. Theodore went from .917 save percentage in 2012 with the Panthers to an .893 save percentage in 2013 and even worse swings on Montreal.

 

You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that. 

 

Not true at all. His numbers collapsed in Montreal and got better each season in Colorado.

Edited by devilsrule33
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How has Giguere's fluctuated significantly? He has posted almost identical save percentage numbers with bad Leafs and Avalanche teams as he had with the 2006-2007 Cup team with the Ducks that had two HOF defensemen. Ray Emery has put up better save percentage numbers with the Flyers, Ducks and Blackhawks then he did in 2/3 seasons he had with the (class of the East) Senators.

 

As Tri just mentioned, goalies like Bryzgalov and Theodore have had incredible highs and lows with the same team. Theodore went from .917 save percentage in 2012 with the Panthers to an .893 save percentage in 2013 and even worse swings on Montreal.

 

Theodore played 15 games this year as opposed to 53 the previous year, and Florida was just awful this year. 

 

Bryz was .920 in 3/4 years with Phoenix, and .900 and .909 with the Flyers and .907 and .911 in his two years in Anaheim when he played a significant amount of games.   

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You can't say that about Mike Smith or Bryzgalov, especially Brzygalov.

 

Mike Smith has one year of above-average goaltending to his name.  Why are we ascribing this to the team and not to random fluctuations?   

 

Bryzgalov might just be getting old.  Save percentages in general should be lower on the Flyers because of the number of power plays they give up.

 

 

 

Jose Theodore is another one, at least from the eyeball test.  His save percentage got worse when he went from Monreal to Colorado, and then improved after that.

 

Theodore got dealt when save percentages league-wide were in the toilet because of all the power plays.  Nabokov has a similar valley and he didn't go anywhere.

 

EDIT:  oh lord, you're comparing save percentages straight up from 2005-06 to ones in 2012-13?  good luck with that.

Edited by Triumph
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And btw, why is save percentage between years with the same team and save percentage between different teams a distinction with a difference?  Often the only difference is the laundry.

 

I can't see any way to read this except as exactly what me and 731 are arguing.

 

Schneider isn't a test case.  He's almost certainly gotten some luck in his NHL career to date.  I expect him to post around a .920 SV% next year, but he could easily be +/- .1 or even .2 of that.

Edited by Triumph
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I can't see any way to read this except as exactly what me and 731 are arguing.

 

Schneider isn't a test case.  He's almost certainly gotten some luck in his NHL career to date.  I expect him to post around a .920 SV% next year, but he could easily be +/- .1 or even .2 of that.

 

I'll grant you that powerplays against ought to significantly affect save percentage.  I don't know if someone's done an even strength save percentage analysis between goalies across different teams.

 

Re Schneider, if it turns out he and Marty play roughly the same number of games this year -- i.e. the sample sizes for both are large enough -- I'm more curious to see what the goals against differential between he and Marty turns out to be. 

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I'll grant you that powerplays against ought to significantly affect save percentage.  I don't know if someone's done an even strength save percentage analysis between goalies across different teams.

 

Re Schneider, if it turns out he and Marty play roughly the same number of games this year -- i.e. the sample sizes for both are large enough -- I'm more curious to see what the goals against differential between he and Marty turns out to be. 

 

We have enough data on Brodeur's backups to know how much he suppresses shots against.  

 

This article is actually not very good, I'd be curious to run the numbers for the last 5 years, as the Devils have used a lot of backups:  http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2008/10/estimating-brodeurs-shot-prevention.html

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We have enough data on Brodeur's backups to know how much he suppresses shots against.

This article is actually not very good, I'd be curious to run the numbers for the last 5 years, as the Devils have used a lot of backups: http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2008/10/estimating-brodeurs-shot-prevention.html

What's the good data you have, because the article you linked to said more analysis is needed. (Probably why you said it isn't very good).

A comparison to Hedberg to show shot suppression won't tell a guy like me very much since Hedberg is a good puck handler in his own right.

I guess what everyone seems to be saying here is that goaltending was the biggest factor in the poor results this season. Next year ought to be a decent test of this theory since, if you believe save percentage is most important, Schneider is the better goalie. (You can use goals against if you want).

Of course, and to be as respectful as I can about this, if goals against/wins does not reflect this, you'll say it was just luck or Schneider isn't very good ir Broduer was unusually lucky. Chickens/eggs.

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A comparison to Hedberg to show shot suppression won't tell a guy like me very much since Hedberg is a good puck handler in his own right.

 

Got years with Weekes and Clemmensen, and the data will be easy to winnow out.  Hell, we can sort it by even strength.

 

I guess what everyone seems to be saying here is that goaltending was the biggest factor in the poor results this season. Next year ought to be a decent test of this theory since, if you believe save percentage is most important, Schneider is the better goalie. (You can use goals against if you want).

 

Offense was probably a bigger factor, but goaltending was right there.

Of course, and to be as respectful as I can about this, if goals against/wins does not reflect this, you'll say it was just luck or Schneider isn't very good ir Broduer was unusually lucky. Chickens/eggs.

 

A sample size of one doesn't really prove much either way, something which I can tell it's an uphill battle to fight you on.  The Devils' SV% has been mostly rotten for 3 years now.  If they lose Elias, they will also lose one of their best shots against suppressors.  But yeah, if the save percentage is bad, I'll conclude Schneider had a bad season, not that he's necessarily bad - even the greats can have them (like Brodeur from 1999-2002).

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Got years with Weekes and Clemmensen, and the data will be easy to winnow out. Hell, we can sort it by even strength.

Offense was probably a bigger factor, but goaltending was right there.

A sample size of one doesn't really prove much either way, something which I can tell it's an uphill battle to fight you on. The Devils' SV% has been mostly rotten for 3 years now. If they lose Elias, they will also lose one of their best shots against suppressors. But yeah, if the save percentage is bad, I'll conclude Schneider had a bad season, not that he's necessarily bad - even the greats can have them (like Brodeur from 1999-2002).

You've got one year with Clemmensen. Weekes played what 7 games that year?

I can be convinced, but I doubt shot suppression is ever going to be something you can quantify.

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You've got one year with Clemmensen. Weekes played what 7 games that year?

I can be convinced, but I doubt shot suppression is ever going to be something you can quantify.

 

Weekes played 16 games in 2008-09.

 

The question wouldn't be how much Brodeur suppresses shots, it would be if he does.  I doubt it's a very large effect.

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A sample size of one doesn't really prove much either way, something which I can tell it's an uphill battle to fight you on.  The Devils' SV% has been mostly rotten for 3 years now.  If they lose Elias, they will also lose one of their best shots against suppressors.  But yeah, if the save percentage is bad, I'll conclude Schneider had a bad season, not that he's necessarily bad - even the greats can have them (like Brodeur from 1999-2002).

 

I don't agree with that assessment.  I think he was weak in 2000-2001 (reg season and playoffs) and was not good in the '99 playoffs.  He was hardly bad in 1999-2000 (.927 playoff save% during the playoffs).  Just going strictly by memory, even though the save%s in those four seasons were .906, .910., .906 and .906, I don't think it's accurate to call that whole stretch bad.  I think he was better overall than the raw %s of those seasons might indicate.  No one was calling him a bad goalie...that's for damned sure. 

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