Larsson

[DJ Eco]

Kane, Pietrangelo and Backstrom are pretty good NHL players, I'd love it if Larsson was 85% of what Pietrangelo is.

 

Even Pietrangelo's 23 years old. I think my point speaks for itself. Patience, patience, patience. The fact that this kid doesn't look like the worst person on the ice night-in and night-out is enough for me to have trust in him moving forward. He's only 20!

[DJ Eco]

Everyone expected to land Landeskog.  Larsson was a let down.  He's lacking in passion and we made the best of it citing whathisface Red Wing as best case scenario.  He's not the Devils style and he's too young to show his own personal development as of yet.

 

Plenty of players have passion. Stephen Gionta does. Cam Janssen does. What I admire about Larsson is his poise. He won't be a Scott Stevens, but he will be a solid calming presence in the back in a few years when his game matures and I look forward to it.

[Pepperkorn]

Plenty of players have passion. Stephen Gionta does. Cam Janssen does.

I wish the hell even the announcers would fvcking get the difference between passion and desperation.

 

DESPERATE HOCKEY SUCKS!  It's BRAINLESS AND PANICKED.

 

Passion can be fiery, in can have fast motion.  But it can also be cool and calculated and pin point accurate.  Yeah that rreeeaally describes Cam and SGio..

 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Niedermeyer wasn't thought of as a generational talent when he was drafted. In fact, Lou should feel very fortunate that San Jose came into the league that year, otherwise, the Devils woukd have taken Pat Faloon at number 2.

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A lot of GMs would've drafted Falloon with their #2 pick, sure.  Funny thing is I could see Lou STILL taking Niedermayer with the second pick, and a lot of fans at the time saying "WHAT?!  Why the hell did he do THAT?!"   

[SterioDesign]

First off, there was no Scott Niedermayer in that draft. Nieds was a generational talent, and players like him don't come around very often. Larsson was the best player available at #4.

 

Speed can be worked on. Larsson was drafted for his on ice vision, ability to remain calm, and because it was generally felt he had a lot of growing to do. These qualities showed in Sweden, but then he moved halfway around the world, to a faster game on a smaller rink with more contact and bigger players. It's going to take time to adjust to all of that. He's played well in the AHL, and in time that should come to the NHL.

 

Point wise, if he mirrors his AHL production for a whole season in the NHL (who knows if that would be consistent numbers), he'd have about 47 points which is the most of a Devils defenseman since Rafalksi broke 50 in 2006-7. 

 

thats somewhat going around the point i was trying to make. Of course there was no Nieds in that draft, i'll leave off names then. If you can get a good and fast 2 way dman who will produce and bring offence or a guy who will be in your top 4 and not generate much. You want a higher ceiling as much as possible for your top pick

 

and the "speed" can be worked on i don't buy, you may get a little faster but not enough to make a big difference. People who are fast we're always fast, it's in them.

Edited October 15, 2013 by SterioDesign

[Daniel]

A lot of GMs would've drafted Falloon with their #2 pick, sure.  Funny thing is I could see Lou STILL taking Niedermayer with the second pick, and a lot of fans at the time saying "WHAT?!  Why the hell did he do THAT?!"   

 

I think Lou, or someone in the organization, basically admitted that Falloon was the one they wanted, besides Lindros of course. 

 

Nieds, I recall, had a lot of the same knocks as Ryan Murphy.  Had a suspect defensive side to his game and was very physically weak. 

[Devil Dan 56]

thats somewhat going around the point i was trying to make. Of course there was no Nieds in that draft, i'll leave off names then. If you can get a good and fast 2 way dman who will produce and bring offence or a guy who will be in your top 4 and not generate much. You want a higher ceiling as much as possible for your top pick

 

and the "speed" can be worked on i don't buy, you may get a little faster but not enough to make a big difference. People who are fast we're always fast, it's in them.

 

But there was no fast 2 way dman there. Larsson was by far the best defensive prospect in the draft. There were 5 or 6 picks until another was taken. I also don't see whats wrong with someone who can theoretically spend 20 years in your top 4. That kind of consistency is rare. It's not flashy and it won't make highlight reels, but it's an essential piece of a team. And like I said earlier, a point every other game is nothing to sneeze at if he can maintain that AHL level in the NHL in future years. That all comes with time. 

 

First though, Deboer is going to have to start using him in various situations. I'd rather have Larsson working on the point and learning on the PP than have Peter Harrold out there. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

thats somewhat going around the point i was trying to make. Of course there was no Nieds in that draft, i'll leave off names then. If you can get a good and fast 2 way dman who will produce and bring offence or a guy who will be in your top 4 and not generate much. You want a higher ceiling as much as possible for your top pick

 

and the "speed" can be worked on i don't buy, you may get a little faster but not enough to make a big difference. People who are fast we're always fast, it's in them.

 

Why hasn't Lou hired you yet?

 

The NHL Central Scouting Bureau had Larsson ranked as the top European skater, and second overall.  There was talk of him going first in that draft.  Clearly people who know a lot more than you do thought he had a VERY high ceiling, and out of the 11 defensemen taken in the first round of 2011 draft, he was the ONLY one to play in the NHL in 2011-12, and he played 65 games (and 5 playoff games to boot) at that level to boot.  To make it sound like YOU now know 2.5 years after the fact what the Devils should have been looking for...comical, really.  The pick made a lot of sense and was completely understandable.

 

There is still time for him to become what DD56 has said...a multi-decade, Top-4 defenseman.  Think those guys are easy to find?

 

 

I think Lou, or someone in the organization, basically admitted that Falloon was the one they wanted, besides Lindros of course. 

 

Nieds, I recall, had a lot of the same knocks as Ryan Murphy.  Had a suspect defensive side to his game and was very physically weak. 

 

Didn't know that, but I do know that Falloon was pretty much considered THE across-the-board #2 guy in that draft.  It just wouldn't have surprised me much if Lou was bucking that trend.

[Pepperkorn]

why are we discussing Faloon and Neidermayer in a Larsson thread?  I'm gleaning no new insights. We're DECADES out now.  Things change... time to turn the page, youthink?

 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

why are we discussing Faloon and Neidermayer in a Larsson thread?  I'm gleaning no new insights. We're DECADES out now.  Things change... time to turn the page, youthink?

 

Because SD seems to think Lou should've been able to find a Niedermayer-type in the 2011 draft.  Hence the mention.

 

Yes, I mentioned Falloon in response to Daniel, and yes, it was a bit of a digression.  So shoot me.  After all, your posts are always 100% on topic and to the point. 

 

And aren't you a little old to do the teenage "clever video loop" thing? 

[Pepperkorn]

Dude - if I'm to old to gif post, you're to old to post on hockey board PERIOD

[Triumph]

Brodin has clearly leapt ahead of Larsson, but I bet Minnesota had Larsson above Brodin on their board.  I'm still curious what kind of deal was discussed with Minnesota at that draft - guess we'll never know unless Lou retires and someone writes a book about him.  Anyway, Ryan Strome is in the AHL, Zibanjead is in the AHL, Hamilton's in and out of the lineup, Schiefele is a 3rd line center, Couturier is a 3rd line center (and was a 4th line center last year and I think healthy scratched a few times) - drafting is hard.

 

Larsson has a save percentage on of 86.84% which ranks him 155th out of 170th qualified defensemen.  That won't last.  He needs a goal or a good rush up the ice that leads to a goal to help get his confidence back.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Triumph

[Daniel]

Brodin has clearly leapt ahead of Larsson, but I bet Minnesota had Larsson above Brodin on their board. I'm still curious what kind of deal was discussed with Minnesota at that draft - guess we'll never know unless Lou retires and someone writes a book about him. Anyway, Ryan Strome is in the AHL, Zibanjead is in the AHL, Hamilton's in and out of the lineup, Schiefele is a 3rd line center, Couturier is a 3rd line center (and was a 4th line center last year and I think healthy scratched a few times) - drafting is hard.

Larsson has a save percentage on of 86.84% which ranks him 155th out of 170th qualified defensemen. That won't last. He needs a goal or a good rush up the ice that leads to a goal to help get his confidence back.

What deal with Minnesota? Never heard of it.

And just to be clear, I will not blame Lou for the pick even if Larsson is a huge bust. The overwhelming consensus at the time was that the Devils got a steal. Had the Devils drafted Brodin, we would have been calling for Lou's head.

Whether Larsson's development was stunted in part due to Lou is another issue.

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[Colorado Rockies 1976]

drafting is hard.

 

Larsson has a save percentage on of 86.84% which ranks him 155th out of 170th qualified defensemen.  That won't last.  He needs a goal or a good rush up the ice that leads to a goal to help get his confidence back.

 

In bold:  yes, very.  Only sure thing is that there is no such thing as one.  If Adam Larsson ultimately becomes a bust, then a lot of scouts will be shocked I'm sure.  He was a top-5 pick in just about everyone's eyes. 

 

Yeah, save% behind him figures to go up significantly.  That would be a nice start. 

[Triumph]

Larsson can only be a huge bust if he gets hurt.  He's an NHL level defenseman right now.  Maybe a 3rd pairing D, but he's good enough to play in the league, he's not Jack Johnson out there.  Sometimes all you get out of a top pick is an average player - that's disappointing, but does not label him a 'bust' - anyone who thinks that underestimates the randomness inherent in selecting 18 year old players, predicting who among them will be the best 25 year old players.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

What deal with Minnesota? Never heard of it.

And just to be clear, I will not blame Lou for the pick even if Larsson is a huge bust. The overwhelming consensus at the time was that the Devils got a steal. Had the Devils drafted Brodin, we would have been calling for Lou's head.

Whether Larsson's development was stunted in part due to Lou is another issue.

 

I don't think anyone will blame Lou and the Devils for picking Larsson...well, SD will claim Lou should've gotten a sure-thing speed-skating PMD.  But yeah, I remember a lot people thinking "Holy crap, we got a guy that many thought could go #1 overall!  What a win!" 

 

But yeah, sooner or later, I think they've got to throw him out there and live with the mistakes.  Guy should be in every game, either at this level, or at Albany.  But no healthy-scratch crap after 1-2 rough games. 

 

Wonder how well Stevens and him mesh from a teacher/student standpoint.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Larsson can only be a huge bust if he gets hurt.  He's an NHL level defenseman right now.  Maybe a 3rd pairing D, but he's good enough to play in the league, he's not Jack Johnson out there.  Sometimes all you get out of a top pick is an average player - that's disappointing, but does not label him a 'bust' - anyone who thinks that underestimates the randomness inherent in selecting 18 year old players, predicting who among them will be the best 25 year old players.

 

You know how this works.  "Bust" is not only used for guys who fizzle out and either don't make it, or barely make it.  If he ultimately does become nothing more than an average player, or is playing and struggling to become one, you'll hear the "B" word a lot initially...but if he puts together a solid track record of average play (and can be counted on to play in almost all of his team's games), people will eventually put the B word away and appreciate him for what he is. 

[EdgeControl]

based on what we have seen to date, what should Larssons contract look like next year?  length and amount?

[Marshall]

based on what we have seen to date, what should Larssons contract look like next year?  length and amount?

 

Without checking any contracts for reference, I would guess 2y/5m or 5y/18m? I preface this by "counting" on that he'll reach his year 1 point totals (at least). Though the latter might take him straight to UFA? (Help me here Tri...)

[SterioDesign]

Because SD seems to think Lou should've been able to find a Niedermayer-type in the 2011 draft.  Hence the mention.

 

Yes, I mentioned Falloon in response to Daniel, and yes, it was a bit of a digression.  So shoot me.  After all, your posts are always 100% on topic and to the point. 

 

And aren't you a little old to do the teenage "clever video loop" thing? 

 

do you always miss my points on purpose dude? you have to at this point. you seriously misinterpret like 90% of my posts.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

do you always miss my points on purpose dude? you have to at this point. you seriously misinterpret like 90% of my posts.

 

I addressed what you said in post #110.  You implied (or seemed to imply) that with that pick, Lou should've taken someone with a different, flashier skillset on D (like a Nieds).  One that puts up numbers in the glamour categories.  You can re-read the rest of the post.  Larsson was ranked very high and seemed to be a no-brainer-type pick at #4.  You're making it sound like Lou purposely avoided taking a higher-ceiling guy to draft Larsson, when at the time Larsson WAS considered to be a very high-ceiling guy himself.  Like DD56 said, at that slot, Larsson was likely considered to be the best player available...and probably was on a lot of draft boards.   

[devilsrule33]

I addressed what you said in post #110.  You implied (or seemed to imply) that with that pick, Lou should've taken someone with a different, flashier skillset on D (like a Nieds).  One that puts up numbers in the glamour categories.  You can re-read the rest of the post.  Larsson was ranked very high and seemed to be a no-brainer-type pick at #4.  You're making it sound like Lou purposely avoided taking a higher-ceiling guy to draft Larsson, when at the time Larsson WAS considered to be a very high-ceiling guy himself.  Like DD56 said, at that slot, Larsson was likely considered to be the best player available...and probably was on a lot of draft boards.   

 

I think everyone here should be happy winning the lottery didn't mean getting the 1st overall pick, because I believe that the entire scouting staff was ready to take Larsson if they had the 1st pick. Right now you can't make a great case for anyone the Devils should have picked instead of Larsson at the 4-spot. It's very early (just like it is too early to judge Larsson), but you could make the case that everyone from 5-20 should be worried about their top pick. That's how ridiculous it is to give up on Larsson at this point.

Edited October 15, 2013 by devilsrule33

[Triumph]

I think everyone here should be happy winning the lottery didn't mean getting the 1st overall pick, because I believe that the entire scouting staff was ready to take Larsson if they had the 1st pick. Right now you can't even make a case for anyone the Devils should have picked instead of Larsson at the 4-spot. It's very early (just like it is too early to judge Larsson), but you could make the case that everyone from 5-20 should be worried about their top pick. That's how ridiculous it is to give up on Larsson at this point.

 

I think you can make a case for Brodin and Dougie Hamilton.  I think it's very likely that both of these guys turn out better than Larsson.  Not really sold on anyone else.

[LucifersDog]

How many early picks succeed vs failure ? It's a gamble.

[maxpower]

Kane, Pietrangelo and Backstrom are pretty good NHL players, I'd love it if Larsson was 85% of what Pietrangelo is.

 

The problem to me with Larsson is he seems to be getting worse, not better...and he can't skate backwards to save his life at age 20.  It doesn't help that seemingly every mistake he makes winds up in the back of the net.  max is right that Devil fans built him up almost unrealistically beforehand because of thinking about the draft for several months - but the first half of his rookie season he looked well on his way to being all that.  Then he hit a rookie wall, got hurt and then the in-and-out of the lineup shuffling started.  Plus having Larry leave didn't help matters since they worked well together.

 

Pietrangelo is probably the best non "star" on that list.    But he's also older at this point.    He's a very, very good player but he's not a "generational" talent or anything like that.