If the team continues to struggle, does Lou start to feel the heat?

[dmann422]

From the title of the thread, I didn't really take it to mean "Lou feeling the heat from the fans". I think if he's going to be feeling it from anywhere, it will be from ownership. There's always going to fans that will complain about Lou's moves, and won't or can't tolerate a down period or some moves not working out. And the Devils fanbase has its fair share of instant gratification types.

I think if VBK was still the majority owner of the team, Lou would probably have almost Glen Sather-like job security. With this group, I'm not so sure.

you're right, I probably should have prefaced my thoughts with the fact that I don't want to guess what ownership may think or do, rather I want to speak from my perspective as a fan. And it bothers me when other fans declare that Lou's time is up. (Obviously this is not what the op did but others have in this and other threads)

Devils fans have been spoiled for knowing nothing but a winning culture for so long, while you have teams that know nothing but losing and failure for the past two decades.

It bothers me that as soon as we have a bad 2/3 of season (because that's essentially what this ~60 game stretch is), fans are so quick to jump ship and profess doom.

Bottom line: I have no idea what ownership will do if this season ends the way it's beginning, but I know that I will not lose faith in Lou

[DH26]

Yep.  Look where that's landed them...the sixers are an abomination (to say the least).

 

for the record, they're an intentional abomination (riggin for Wiggins 2014!) that doesn't happen/need to happen in the NHL like it does in the NBA

[coldply123]

Sorry, but this is malarkey. The Devils have never had to do this kind of a roster overhaul because they were constantly getting top talent from their drafting. From 1990 to 2004, few teams beat the Devils in terms of quality of players drafted. And this is a positive feedback loop because the more good players you draft, you can trade some away and still have other good players - e.g. the Gilmour trade, which many around here consider a 'bust' but it didn't hurt the Devils' long-term prospects at all, so what was really lost there?

The rest of the league has cottoned to some of Lou's best tricks - that undersized players are often undervalued, that college free agents are worth investigating, etc. Other than that, when the pipeline of prospects stops, you can't then sell off veterans for picks and continue to pick up prospects. In addition, the change in the UFA rules regarding compensatory picks also hurt NJ's drafting - used to be they got some free picks most years that they now do not get.

So what is your point? Preferably without rambling on for two paragraphs on items which most of us already know to be the case and which you fail to tie in to Lamoriello's increasingly poor performance aside from vaguely suggesting he was god like up until 2004 in these areas which is highly circumstantial at best might I add as other teams took the same chances on guys you mention.

You did nothing to deconstruct the poor drafting argument or that Lou has struggled in the area I mentioned other than to use one of my favorite words, malarkey.

[coldply123]

you're right, I probably should have prefaced my thoughts with the fact that I don't want to guess what ownership may think or do, rather I want to speak from my perspective as a fan. And it bothers me when other fans declare that Lou's time is up. (Obviously this is not what the op did but others have in this and other threads)

Devils fans have been spoiled for knowing nothing but a winning culture for so long, while you have teams that know nothing but losing and failure for the past two decades.

It bothers me that as soon as we have a bad 2/3 of season (because that's essentially what this ~60 game stretch is), fans are so quick to jump ship and profess doom.

Bottom line: I have no idea what ownership will do if this season ends the way it's beginning, but I know that I will not lose faith in Lou

You know what, good for you. I sincerely mean that. But this team has been bad three out of four years. Why should fans not have a high standard or be demanding or question the direction of the team? Lou should be held to the same standard he held so many coaches and players to in his tenure.

[dmann422]

You know what, good for you. I sincerely mean that. But this team has been bad three out of four years. Why should fans not have a high standard or be demanding or question the direction of the team? Lou should be held to the same standard he held so many coaches and players to in his tenure.

because the best predictor of future performance is past performance, and there are very few gms in nhl history who have been as good as Lou.

Put it this way: if Lou is let go and he wants a job, he'll have offers in a matter if minutes.

Yes I'm sure your argument against this is maybe it's time for a fresh face and new outlook for the team, but I would say that people were making these same comments after 2011 and next thing you know Lou built an eastern conference champion.

I would agree with you if you could give me one legitimate candidate who has a better possibility if success as Lou. And as a said in my previous post which you dismissed, there are very few who has been as good as Lou.

[coldply123]

because the best predictor of future performance is past performance, and there are very few gms in nhl history who have been as good as Lou.

Put it this way: if Lou is let go and he wants a job, he'll have offers in a matter if minutes.

Yes I'm sure your argument against this is maybe it's time for a fresh face and new outlook for the team, but I would say that people were making these same comments after 2011 and next thing you know Lou built an eastern conference champion.

I would agree with you if you could give me one legitimate candidate who has a better possibility if success as Lou. And as a said in my previous post which you dismissed, there are very few who has been as good as Lou.

Lou is going to be 70 and I disagree on past peformance being a predictor here. Times change and people change. The next great GM has not been hired yet because they have to get the opportunity.

[ATLL765]

Lou is going to be 70 and I disagree on past peformance being a predictor here. Times change and people change. The next great GM has not been hired yet because they have to get the opportunity.

If you can't use past performance as an indicator of future performance, why did you use it to support your position that he needs to be replaced?

[Triumph]

So what is your point? Preferably without rambling on for two paragraphs on items which most of us already know to be the case and which you fail to tie in to Lamoriello's increasingly poor performance aside from vaguely suggesting he was god like up until 2004 in these areas which is highly circumstantial at best might I add as other teams took the same chances on guys you mention.

You did nothing to deconstruct the poor drafting argument or that Lou has struggled in the area I mentioned other than to use one of my favorite words, malarkey.

 

This is a terrible post.  You barely put forth an argument in your last post ('Drafting has been poor to date' - uhhh, since when?  Where's the cutoff?  I doubt it starts with the beginning of Lamoriello's tenure) and now you're taking me to task for 'rambling'?

 

I'd evaluate a GM mostly on trades, free agent signings, choice of coach - drafting less so but it's certainly included.  As for drafts, there are some things I really don't like that the Devils do deep in the draft - Jorg, Nagy, Rodwell, A. Brodeur, these are wasted picks - but in all I think the Devils move up or down reasonably intelligently, and they haven't wasted a high draft pick on a goalie in some time.  They don't seem to privilege one junior league over another, and they don't seem to be obsessed with attributes that don't matter.  The coaching, well that's where I'd have the biggest issue with Lou L, but I like DeBoer and while I didn't approve of Lemaire coming back, he was pretty darn good here.  MacLean was obviously a failure, but so colossally one that he only cost the Devils a season.  Trades, the Devils haven't made a ton of these lately but I almost always like his trades.  As for free agent signings, I generally like the short-term ones and disapprove of the long-term ones, but I don't think there is anything categorically incorrect about how he's gone about doing things in that arena.  I don't like the fact that Brodeur's still here, but hopefully that will be rectified after this season.

[coldply123]

This is a terrible post. You barely put forth an argument in your last post ('Drafting has been poor to date' - uhhh, since when? Where's the cutoff? I doubt it starts with the beginning of Lamoriello's tenure) and now you're taking me to task for 'rambling'?

I'd evaluate a GM mostly on trades, free agent signings, choice of coach - drafting less so but it's certainly included. As for drafts, there are some things I really don't like that the Devils do deep in the draft - Jorg, Nagy, Rodwell, A. Brodeur, these are wasted picks - but in all I think the Devils move up or down reasonably intelligently, and they haven't wasted a high draft pick on a goalie in some time. They don't seem to privilege one junior league over another, and they don't seem to be obsessed with attributes that don't matter. The coaching, well that's where I'd have the biggest issue with Lou L, but I like DeBoer and while I didn't approve of Lemaire coming back, he was pretty darn good here. MacLean was obviously a failure, but so colossally one that he only cost the Devils a season. Trades, the Devils haven't made a ton of these lately but I almost always like his trades. As for free agent signings, I generally like the short-term ones and disapprove of the long-term ones, but I don't think there is anything categorically incorrect about how he's gone about doing things in that arena. I don't like the fact that Brodeur's still here, but hopefully that will be rectified after this season.

Categorically incorrect?

His coaching carousel has been an issue but the free agent signings have been pretty bad too with a lot of excess in terms and yrs. Really the only area under his control he has done well is trading but when your prospect fool falters you are limited in your options on that front. Does Lou not oversee Conte and furthermore the development of these prospects?

[Triumph]

Categorically incorrect?

His coaching carousel has been an issue but the free agent signings have been pretty bad too with a lot of excess in terms and yrs. Really the only area under his control he has done well is trading but when your prospect fool falters you are limited in your options on that front. Does Lou not oversee Conte and furthermore the development of these prospects?

 

'Lou gives free agents too many years and dollars!'

 

unlike all those other GMs who do not do that.  I'd love to hear about this magical organization that is able to sign desirable free agents to short term deals for less money than that player is worth.

[Derlique]

'Lou gives free agents too many years and dollars!'

unlike all those other GMs who do not do that. I'd love to hear about this magical organization that is able to sign desirable free agents to short term deals for less money than that player is worth.

Not to speak for Coldply, but I think he's saying we shouldn't have been in the situation where half our forwards are recent UFAs.

When you're giving up picks for rentals and you pick late every year, these things happen

[Daniel]

The scoring sucks, the goaltending sucks, but you know what hasn't been bad yet? The defense. You just fix one of the other two and you've got a team that's going to win more games than it loses.

The thing about the Devils' UFA signings this year is that one of them lasts more than 3 years. Now it's obviously the worst one and that's too bad, but if these are mistakes, they're theoretically fixable mistakes.

The defense isn't good enough even if with great goaltending to account for the glaring lack of scoring. If Merrill turns into Suter, Gelinas into Keith, Severson into Weber (or two out of the three do that) you can go far, but that's a complete pipe dream. A bunch of Andy Greenes can put an otherwise good team over the top, but that's not what we have.

You're going to lose a lot more games than you win if you can't score more than two goals a game, which is what the Devils offense looks to be for the foreseeable future.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dmann422]

Not to speak for Coldply, but I think he's saying we shouldn't have been in the situation where half our forwards are recent UFAs.

When you're giving up picks for rentals and you pick late every year, these things happen

Lou tries to put a winning team on the ice every year. We've never had an intended transition year since he's been here. Meanwhile most teams have a short legitimate window before they tear it apart and retool or rebuild over a few years.

[Derlique]

Lou tries to put a winning team on the ice every year. We've never had an intended transition year since he's been here. Meanwhile most teams have a short legitimate window before they tear it apart and retool or rebuild over a few years.

Trying and succeeding are two different things. Unless Lou pulls a rabbit out of his hat, the offense will probably stay the same. Looking at the ufa landscape, our best bets are Steen, Grabovski, Moulson, Gaborik or Vanek. Of course, most of these guys will probably be retained

[dmann422]

Trying and succeeding are two different things. Unless Lou pulls a rabbit out of his hat, the offense will probably stay the same. Looking at the ufa landscape, our best bets are Steen, Grabovski, Moulson, Gaborik or Vanek. Of course, most of these guys will probably be retained

my point was that the people who are calling for a rebuild/Lou to leave are the same ones who can't stand any period if losing. I wonder what this board would be like with a 3 year rebuild/bottom feeder period.

[Marv4Life]

The guy is 71. I have yet to hear a valid reason why he should remain should they miss the playoffs AGAIN(3 out of 4 years). The new ownership can talk about Lou's special sauce all they want, but as mentioned they are the same guys who cleaned house with the Sixers and they cannot be happy with the attendance so far, and I doubt it's gonna improve should the team stay on track.

[dmann422]

The guy is 71. I have yet to hear a valid reason why he should remain should they miss the playoffs AGAIN(3 out of 4 years). The new ownership can talk about Lou's special sauce all they want, but as mentioned they are the same guys who cleaned house with the Sixers and they cannot be happy with the attendance so far, and I doubt it's gonna improve should the team stay on track.

funny how you conveniently leave out the fact that the year they made the playoffs, they were a mark fayne empty net miss away from winning the cup. Edited November 5, 2013 by dmann422

[jagknife]

funny how you conveniently leave out the fact that the year they made the playoffs, they were a mark fayne empty net miss away from winning the cup.

 

still woulda had to actually win game 6, and then win game 7.

 

this team has been extremely average since the lockout, its no secret. we had a fluke run in 2012 where the right guys got hot at the exact right time.

 

don't turn a blind eye to their under performing based on the good feeling of the 2012 run.

[dmann422]

still woulda had to actually win game 6, and then win game 7.

this team has been extremely average since the lockout, its no secret. we had a fluke run in 2012 where the right guys got hot at the exact right time.

don't turn a blind eye to their under performing based on the good feeling of the 2012 run.

over the past 4 years the devils are a combined 108-93-25. Not as terrible as many make it out to be.

Most gms and teams would kill for a "fluke run". Don't turn a blind eye to that cup run based in a bad 50 game stretch.

[NJDevs4978]

The guy is 71. I have yet to hear a valid reason why he should remain should they miss the playoffs AGAIN(3 out of 4 years). The new ownership can talk about Lou's special sauce all they want, but as mentioned they are the same guys who cleaned house with the Sixers and they cannot be happy with the attendance so far, and I doubt it's gonna improve should the team stay on track.

 

His best 'defense' for the last four years is the two guys who were supposed to be building blocks of the organization for the next decade both walked away for reasons beyond Lou's control (after having one full season together where they happened to go to the Finals).  How many organizations can survive their two franchise players leaving for nothing?

 

And his worst move had absolutely nothing to do with missing the playoffs three out of four seasons (not giving up the #29 pick).

Edited November 5, 2013 by NJDevs4978

[coldply123]

Not to speak for Coldply, but I think he's saying we shouldn't have been in the situation where half our forwards are recent UFAs.

When you're giving up picks for rentals and you pick late every year, these things happen

 

That's only one aspect but you are also correct.  The terrible deals given out to the defensemen are another and a result of disregard for scouting/developing defensemen.  Now we've gone the opposite direction in terms of forwards and have collected a lot of defensive prospects.

[coldply123]

'Lou gives free agents too many years and dollars!'

 

unlike all those other GMs who do not do that.  I'd love to hear about this magical organization that is able to sign desirable free agents to short term deals for less money than that player is worth.

 

You can't just "categorically" ignore it Triumph or try to play the "well everybody else signs players to long-term contracts that cost money too".  I'm well aware of market fundamentals at play in free agency.

 

Go through the FAs we have signed over the years.  I think the only one that could be argued that has worked out has been Zubrus and that's marginal in that it worked out on the back end moreso the front end where he was largely out of place and inconsistent the first few years, and Lou has decided to erase that good memory by giving him a new 3 year deal.  Even the Kovalchuk re-sign despite us getting to a SCF, will prove to be a negative mark on this organization overall in short-term cost and how Lou handled it since he won't be here for the long-term ramifications to rebound from.

 

Locking guys in for too many years results in having to eat huge portions of cap space as well as potentially tying up a roster spot, reducing flexibility in the management of the roster/lines.  Lou has committed this egregiously several times in the last decade (Mogilny, Malakhov, Matvichuk, Rolston) amongst just a few of the well known ones (there's several more).

[sundstrom]

funny how you conveniently leave out the fact that the year they made the playoffs, they were a mark fayne empty net miss away from winning the cup.

 

let's pump the breaks there - sure, fayne hitting the empty net and/or kovalchuk not hitting the crossbar makes it a more interesting series - but the kings steam rolled the devils. marty was going to have to have a GAA of 1 or under for the devils to win that series.

 

as for getting truly elite talent - for the most part, you have to draft it. its rare that a player like vanek or parise or kovalchuk hit the free agent market. they're either past their true prime years or they've played for a team that has mismanaged the asset. good teams rarely mismanage their top talent to a point where the player leaves for nothing. 

 

in the instances where a great player is on a team that isn't his original, often its circumstances that got him traded and the return was significant. there are those rare occurances where you get something great for very little because the player blossoms (sharp, naslund, moulson).

 

true top end talent is often drafted fairly high. you have to suck to get those picks. the devils have drafted high once in the last 10 years. despite what some think, they got what looks to be an elite defender with an average to slightly above average offensive game. you would hope that if they had opportunities like pittsburgh or chicago with a low period of 3-4 years, they'd find top end offensive talent there.

 

lou's offseason moves this year made a lot of sense.

 

getting a clarkson replacement who theoretically can do more than clarkson all around, but perhaps not as good at the one thing clarkson does well (score) was a good idea. he just made a high risk gamble with clowe. looks like that's DOA.

 

ryder is a guy who is a scorer - that's his strongest skill set - a guy with a steady high s% that, if given guys that will do the work and get him the puck, can put it in the back of the net. we've seen it happen 4 times. not enough but perhaps we've got the "sample size argument"

 

goaltending has not been good so far - average goaltending has this team with 3-4 more points. excellent goaltending has it with 4-5.

 

the design wasn't terribly flawed with what lou had to work with.

 

but again, and it sucks because it can't happen this year, i think this team needs an awful year with a top draft pick to get a dynamic offensive player - i don't see how they get another one in the organization unless they trade one of merrill, gelinas or larsson for it from someone who overvalues them. ales hemsky is not what this team is missing. patrick kane is what this team is missing.

[coldply123]

funny how you conveniently leave out the fact that the year they made the playoffs, they were a mark fayne empty net miss away from winning the cup.

 

This is hilariously untrue.

let's pump the breaks there - sure, fayne hitting the empty net and/or kovalchuk not hitting the crossbar makes it a more interesting series - but the kings steam rolled the devils. marty was going to have to have a GAA of 1 or under for the devils to win that series.

 

as for getting truly elite talent - for the most part, you have to draft it. its rare that a player like vanek or parise or kovalchuk hit the free agent market. they're either past their true prime years or they've played for a team that has mismanaged the asset. good teams rarely mismanage their top talent to a point where the player leaves for nothing. 

 

in the instances where a great player is on a team that isn't his original, often its circumstances that got him traded and the return was significant. there are those rare occurances where you get something great for very little because the player blossoms (sharp, naslund, moulson).

 

true top end talent is often drafted fairly high. you have to suck to get those picks. the devils have drafted high once in the last 10 years. despite what some think, they got what looks to be an elite defender with an average to slightly above average offensive game. you would hope that if they had opportunities like pittsburgh or chicago with a low period of 3-4 years, they'd find top end offensive talent there.

 

lou's offseason moves this year made a lot of sense.

 

getting a clarkson replacement who theoretically can do more than clarkson all around, but perhaps not as good at the one thing clarkson does well (score) was a good idea. he just made a high risk gamble with clowe. looks like that's DOA.

 

ryder is a guy who is a scorer - that's his strongest skill set - a guy with a steady high s% that, if given guys that will do the work and get him the puck, can put it in the back of the net. we've seen it happen 4 times. not enough but perhaps we've got the "sample size argument"

 

goaltending has not been good so far - average goaltending has this team with 3-4 more points. excellent goaltending has it with 4-5.

 

the design wasn't terribly flawed with what lou had to work with.

 

but again, and it sucks because it can't happen this year, i think this team needs an awful year with a top draft pick to get a dynamic offensive player - i don't see how they get another one in the organization unless they trade one of merrill, gelinas or larsson for it from someone who overvalues them. ales hemsky is not what this team is missing. patrick kane is what this team is missing.

 

And that latter part is a big problem for us in that case, because....................

[sundstrom]

 

And that latter part is a big problem for us in that case, because....................

 

we've beaten this horse. not giving up the 29th pick was inexcusable to the point of disgusting arrogance. this was a case of lou having absolute autonomy and using the old doctrine "if you've got time, use it." i wish that JVB actually took the reigns there and just said - this makes zero sense, you have to give it up.

 

lou is far from perfect. he has made poor decisions as far as asset allocation the last several years (poor cap management, too many defensemen, not providing a good track for young players to thrive, re-signing vets to contracts when better alternatives for the future exist). but the real issue is he does not have any true high end talent to cover up these mistakes. and that comes back to not being in a position to draft it and missing (badly it appears) with tedenby and josefson.