Discuss - Most Likely Trade Deadline Targets

[Sneax]

With the way Jagr has bounced around since coming back, I really think he's been trying to get one last Cup. I don't see why he wouldn't want to move to a contender, especially since it would only be for a handful of months.

 

I think jagr wants to play, his days are numbered despite his current form and I'm sure he's trying to cherish the time he has left. NJ gives him the chance to play major minutes. He won't get that most else where, especially not on a contender.

[Mike Brown]

I'm not being optimi

 

I admire your optimism but I just can't get excited about this team.

 

Right now the Devils are 24th in the league. In the East there are 4 teams not in the playoffs that are ahead of the Devils. 2 of those teams have at least a game in hand on the Devils so the 3 point gap is misleading. The Devils could end up going on a run and still miss the playoffs with all the 3 point games that are bound to happen with these other teams.

Sports Club Stats has the Devils with a 33.1% chance to make the playoffs. Hockey Reference has the Devils odds at 22.6%. Playoff Status has the Devils with a 22% chance to make the playoffs.

 

Has Lou ever sold someones rights? I honestly can't think of it happening off the top of my head. Also, I seriously doubt any team would even bother trading for the rights to any of those guys anyway. Hypothetically, even if some team out there was willing to trade for them, you're not going to get nearly as much for the rights to those 3 players compared to what teams would give up to get a guy like Jagr for the playoff run.

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.

[CarpathianForest]

I'm not being optimi

 

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.

 

Light schedule my foot. We play NYI, SJS, CBJ and DET when we get back from break. We could very well be done after we play those teams.

Edited February 10, 2014 by CarpathianForest

[thefiestygoat]

I think jagr wants to play, his days are numbered despite his current form and I'm sure he's trying to cherish the time he has left. NJ gives him the chance to play major minutes. He won't get that most else where, especially not on a contender.

If it's about playing and cherishing the time he has left then why would he want to stay in NJ where he will probably only get to play 23 more games? He could go to a contender, get those 23 games + playoff games. He averaged 18:55 playing for Boston during their playoff run last year. I'm sure he'd get enough minutes to stay happy. He's averaging 19:12 for NJ right now so even if he did go down to 17-18 minutes a night somewhere else, the ability to play in more games would more than make up for that.

[thefiestygoat]

I'm not being optimi

 

 

It has nothing to do with optimism.  It has everything to do with facts.

 

1. We play most of our games at home.

2. We have a light schedule.

3. We're currently 3 points out.

4. Zidlicky and Brodeur have NTC's, and Jagr might as well have one.

5. It's a weak draft.

Please don't take offense to this because I don't mean this is a negative way or as an insult, but I think you are being blindly optimistic. You're a great fan for believing in them but I think you are drinking Lou's kool-aid.

 

Devils are still 3 points back and other teams have games in hand on them. That's huge. I don't think this draft is as weak as you are making it seem. The Devils don't have a lot of draft picks over the next 2 years. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Adding more picks and or prospects in trades certainly can't hurt.

 

NTC's mean nothing if Lou decides to sell and approaches the players about a move elsewhere. In Brodeur's case it seems he may actually request a move.

[Devil Dan 56]

We're not gonna get a 1st.  I doubt even Lou can pull that off.  Maybe a conditional first, but not a regular 1st for Jagr.  If we make a trade, we're improving the team.  Hence it gives us a better chance at achieving that 15-6-2 record.

 

Regarding those 3, you can always trade the negotiating rights of those players.

 

If it's a weak draft, a team may be willing to give up a first. 

 

And if you make a trade as a buyer, you are ATTEMPTING to improve the team. There's no guarantee that it works. It's going to take more than a rental LW to make this team start winning. 

 

As for negotiating rights, you'd rather get a 6th for negotiating rights (which rarely happens) then get a better pick in early March in a hope-and-prayer attempt at suddenly winning and jumping 5 teams? You have to realize how improbable that all is.

[Mike Brown]

Please don't take offense to this because I don't mean this is a negative way or as an insult, but I think you are being blindly optimistic. You're a great fan for believing in them but I think you are drinking Lou's kool-aid.

 

Devils are still 3 points back and other teams have games in hand on them. That's huge. I don't think this draft is as weak as you are making it seem. The Devils don't have a lot of draft picks over the next 2 years. They have one of the worst prospect pools in the NHL. Adding more picks and or prospects in trades certainly can't hurt.

 

NTC's mean nothing if Lou decides to sell and approaches the players about a move elsewhere. In Brodeur's case it seems he may actually request a move.

 

I personally don't think this team is going to be in the playoffs.  If that's being optimistic, I'd seriously hate what being pessimistic is like.

 

I'm simply stating my case why selling isn't worth doing since we are very much in the race.

 

The games in hand thing is irrelevant.  Every team plays 82 games.  The jumping over teams thing is also irrelevant.  It only takes one win to jump over two them right now.  By the end of March, only 2 or 3 of those teams will still be contending if that.  Those teams all play each other at some point, and the logjam will break apart.

Light schedule my foot. We play NYI, SJS, CBJ and DET when we get back from break. We could very well be done after we play those teams.

 

The Islanders suck.  The Blue Jackets are like us.  Detroit is also like us.  San Jose is the only good team in that bunch right there.

[thefiestygoat]

I personally don't think this team is going to be in the playoffs.  If that's being optimistic, I'd seriously hate what being pessimistic is like.

 

I'm simply stating my case why selling isn't worth doing since we are very much in the race.

 

The games in hand thing is irrelevant.  Every team plays 82 games.  The jumping over teams thing is also irrelevant.  It only takes one win to jump over two them right now.  By the end of March, only 2 or 3 of those teams will still be contending if that.  Those teams all play each other at some point, and the logjam will break apart.

 

The Islanders suck.  The Blue Jackets are like us.  Detroit is also like us.  San Jose is the only good team in that bunch right there.

I guess I misunderstood then. I guess then as long as this team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, you wouldn't want to sell then?

[Mike Brown]

I guess I misunderstood then. I guess then as long as this team has a 1% chance of making the playoffs, you wouldn't want to sell then?

 

I don't want to sell if we're only 2 wins away from being in.  A 43% chance at getting in is too high for me to want to sell.  That's for sure.

[Muevelos]

It's not 43% chance of getting in, its down to 33%

I don't want to sell if we're only 2 wins away from being in. A 43% chance at getting in is too high for me to want to sell. That's for sure.

Edited February 10, 2014 by CarterforPresident

[Mike Brown]

It's not 43% chance of getting in, its down to 33%

 

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

[Devil Dan 56]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

That says 33%.

[Mike Brown]

That says 33%.

 

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?

Edited February 10, 2014 by Mike Brown

[Devil Dan 56]

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?

 

We are. That's not really the issue. The issue is that Columbus, Ottawa, and Washington are one point back, and Carolina is also 3 points back with 2 games in hand on us. Every one of those teams is winning more than the Devils going into the break. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

EDIT: nvm you're right.

 

Despite that, are we not still only 3 points back?

 

Everytime you do that, you're only telling part of the story.  Stop ignoring all of the other teams that are a part of this, or anything else that doesn't paint as rosy of a picture as you'd like.  The % to get in is 33 for a reason, and the number of teams involved and the fact that other teams do have games ahead of them play a factor in that percentage.     

 

We'll know by the deadline what the Devils should do.  Originally I said the Devils needed to go 4-1-1 in the six games before the trade deadline.  So far they're 1-1 in those games.  I'll back off a little on that prediction...maybe 3-1-0 or 2-0-2 (4-2-0 or 3-1-2) would be OK.  But I'm not sure how much of a buying endorsement I can give them if they don't come away with at least 6 points over the next four games. 

 

I've said the Devils need to go 12-6-6 to have a good shot to get in (basically repeat what they did in the last 25 games before the loss against the Caps).  Now it's 12-5-6 to close out the season.

 

If they go 3-1-0 in the next four, that's 9-4-6 to close out the year to get to 91 points.  It's 10-5-4 if they go 2-0-2.  Based on the Devils' record in Cory's last 14 starts (7-3-4), that's doable, but it's all predicated on Cory continuing to provide the best puck-stopping in the league, and either Marty or whoever will back up Cory approximating what Cory's doing when he has to be rested (I'm guessing at this point, PDB might just start Cory every game until he has the kind of game that shows he's temporarily spent).  I do believe that the scoring will get better, but I don't know by how much.

 

2-2-0 in their next 4 pre deadline, that means 10-3-6, 11-4-4, or 12-5-2 to close out for 91.  That also means they would have gone 6-6-3 in the 15 games leading up to the deadline.  There has to be a top-end somewhere, and I can't make a case for the Devils doing any better some combo that gives them 24 points over the season's final 19 games.  I hate to bail on a potential playoff berth, especially with Cory's situation being what it is, but if the Devils aren't in reasonable position to get to 91 points, with 24 points in 19 games after the deadline being the most I can ask for, then they should sell.          

Edited February 10, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[SterioDesign]

I personally don't think this team is going to be in the playoffs.  If that's being optimistic, I'd seriously hate what being pessimistic is like.

 

I'm simply stating my case why selling isn't worth doing since we are very much in the race.

 

The games in hand thing is irrelevant.  Every team plays 82 games.  The jumping over teams thing is also irrelevant.  It only takes one win to jump over two them right now.  By the end of March, only 2 or 3 of those teams will still be contending if that.  Those teams all play each other at some point, and the logjam will break apart.

 

The Islanders suck.  The Blue Jackets are like us.  Detroit is also like us.  San Jose is the only good team in that bunch right there.

 

I'd just point out that the Sharks we're in the race last year and still traded Clowe who didnt score a goal in ages and got 2 2nd round picks and still made the playoffs. 

 

It's allllllllll a gamble, you could hold on to a guy and he could get hurt 2 days after the deadline. Or he could take a slapper and get our best player between the eyes or he could fall off a roller coaster that weekend. Nothing is sure but in our situation and for our future, its a lot more safe to bet on getting picks and go down that road.

[Marshall]

I'd just point out that the Sharks we're in the race last year and still traded Clowe who didnt score a goal in ages and got 2 2nd round picks and still made the playoffs. 

 

 

 

Context: I think Clowe is a lot more important to this team than he was to that Sharks team.

[SterioDesign]

Context: I think Clowe is a lot more important to this team than he was to that Sharks team.

 

my point is simply that it's not impossible that a team is in the race and still sell, you have to look at all the options and whats best for you short term and long term. Not as black and white like Brown Buddy is saying.

[dmann422]

I'm not opposed to selling for the right price, but IMO what we are likely to get back for jagr isn't going to be worth it. I mean at best it's a late first. I just went through the last 6 drafts and the only guy who's made any sort of an impact from the 25-30 pick range is Kyle palmeiri. So one guy out of 30 in the past 6 years has become an legit nhler.

Of course there is still time for some guys to develop but are we really waiting 5 years for a prospect to maybe develop into an nhl player, personally if rather just hang onto jagr and enjoy watching him play the rest of the way. Unless of course he asks to be moved.

Zidlicky is another story because I want Larsson to play so id be willing to move zid to make room for him.

Edited February 10, 2014 by dmann422

[ThreeCups]

I'm not opposed to selling for the right price, but IMO what we are likely to get back for jagr or zidlicky isn't going to be worth it. I mean at best it's a late first. I just went through the last 6 drafts and the only guy who's made any sort of an impact from the 25-30 pick range is Kyle palmeiri. So one guy out of 30 in the past 6 years has become an Lego nhler.

Of course there is still time for some guys to develop but are we really waiting 5 years for a prospect to maybe develop into an nhl player, personally if rather just hang onto jagr and enjoy watching him play the rest of the way. Unless of course he asks I be moved.

Zidlicky is another story because I want Larsson to play so is be willing to move zid to make room for him.

 

My thoughts exactly.  If we deal Jagr, we are sunk for this year.  Moving him is a surrender on this season.  I would prefer to keep Jagr and make a push for the playoffs.  Hopefully we get in.   I would love to resign Jagr regardless of how this season ends.  I hope he wants to come back...

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

my point is simply that it's not impossible that a team is in the race and still sell, you have to look at all the options and whats best for you short term and long term. Not as black and white like Brown Buddy is saying.

 

I think they could def sell a defenseman and not wave the white flag.  I also think they could do a bodies-for-bodies move that could help them and another team.  But like I said, if the Devils don't have at least 67 points by the deadline, I think Lou has to make some tough sell moves that may have a bit of a "surrender" feel to them.   

Edited February 10, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Marshall]

I'm not opposed to selling for the right price, but IMO what we are likely to get back for jagr or zidlicky isn't going to be worth it. I mean at best it's a late first. I just went through the last 6 drafts and the only guy who's made any sort of an impact from the 25-30 pick range is Kyle palmeiri. So one guy out of 30 in the past 6 years has become an Lego nhler.

 

 

You can't add the past two drafts into that, not enough time has passed for those kids. Go back another year and you have John Carlson and Tyler Ennis. Another and you've got Brendan Smith and David Perron.

[HellOnICE]

You never know. You can deal Jagr to a team who could get upset and the next thing you know that pick could move in the high teens or low 20s - you never know.

 

I still come from the school that if you can make the playoffs, you try to do it.  I think we can get a first for Zid from someone looking for puck-mover. If we can get one first, I'd be fine with that going with this moving forward if they bump Larsson and possibly Gelinas into the lineup.

 

 

Greene-Fayne

Sal-Larsson

Volch-Merrill

 

If that's possible.

[dmann422]

You can't add the past two drafts into that, not enough time has passed for those kids. Go back another year and you have John Carlson and Tyler Ennis. Another and you've got Brendan Smith and David Perron.

that's part of my point- if we even do get lucky and draft a guy who turns into an nhl player (which is unlikely in and of itself), odds are it will be at least 5 or 6 years from now. I certainly hope Lou finds a way to answer our scoring problems before that.

[coldply123]

There's no pressing reason or rationale for keeping Jagr and Zidlicky considering its a sellers market where the trade deadline gets you a solid return for top notch playoff veterans with little contract commitment as rentals.

You can even resign them again in the offseason if you are so inclined although I would prefer spending money on youth and speed.