Official 2014 New York Mets Thread

['7']

RIP Frank Cashen. Former Mets GM. Dead at 88.

['7']

Why the hell is Wheeler starting the 7th with 104 pitches. C'mon Terry. Yea yea it was a short outing last time but you can't do this to young arms

 

 

Just asinine managing. Bethancourt singles (I suppose Lagares could've come up with it but it was a tough catch) and Shafer hits a seed to left that's caught luckily. Now he goes out to get him.

[nmigliore]

Why isn't TC challenging this? Bethancourt didn't retouch 2B. Awful.

Edited July 1, 2014 by nmigliore

['7']

Why isn't TC challenging this? Bethancourt didnt retouch 2B. Awful.

 

that has to be a challenge. And the Mets had so much time to review this as well. gotta at least take a chance. Not 100% sure it would've been overturned since there was a chance he brushed the bag. Don't they have guys in the clubhouse watching that?

Ruben Tejada stinks. Good lord. Tailor made DP and he kicks it around the infield

 

Tejada is just a dolt. Can't wait until he's off this team.

Edited July 1, 2014 by '7'

['7']

This team is so unclutch defensively. How the hell does Familia muff that throw. And of course Tejada can't pick it. And of course Lagares over runs it

 

how can a team be so stupid? Just an abominable performance.

Edited July 1, 2014 by '7'

[nmigliore]

What a disastrous inning. Familia did himself no favors by spiking the throw but Tejada still should've been able to handle it. Rare miscue by Lagares in center brings in the tying run. Damn.

[nmigliore]

Campbell boots it now. Unbelievable. 3 fvcking errors in the INNING.

['7']

This is just typical Mets at Turner Field. No hope. No prayer. Everything that can go wrong does go wrong

 

so many miscues that inning.

 

I would much much rather have Turner/Q over the embarrassment that is Tejada. Tejada is one of the lowest IQ baseball players I've ever seen.

[NJDevs4978]

lol this sounds almost as bad at that 12th inning at Dodger Stadium a few years ago where Church overran the bag trying to score and then they made a zillion errors in the bottom half.

['7']

lol this sounds almost as bad at that 12th inning at Dodger Stadium a few years ago where Church overran the bag trying to score and then they made a zillion errors in the bottom half.

 

and that seems like forever ago. And nothing has changed since. Fundamentally this team has been unsound defensively since. Absent minded on the basepaths as well

 

say what you will about Familia but he had nothing today but still did enough to get out of the inning tied (didn't help his own cause either)

Edited July 1, 2014 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Glad I'm going to Colorado from July 2-6.  I need a break from this loser franchise and its loser ownership, loser GM, loser manager and loser players. 

 

Pretty good game from Zack in that he limited the damage, but it's the same old same old...lots of pitches, and this time they resulted in walks. 

 

nmig, I know you think Zack's made progress, but it's been minimal at best.  Ks are up and his ground ball rate has improved (which may be due to luck more than anything else).  He made 17 starts last season and he's now made 17 this season.  The numbers are roughly the same:

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/31267/zack-wheeler

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/31267/year/2013/zack-wheeler

 

One big difference is his BA against with runners on (.299) and RISP (.345).  Last season it was .208 and .173.  We all suspected that those numbers were due to good fortune last season, and as we're seeing this season, it's gone the other way.  He still throws too many pitches (highest average pitch-per-inning count in the NL I believe), and his WHIP this season (1.38) is almost identical to last season's (1.36). 

 

Long story short, whatever progress he's made has been slight (if you can even call it progress), and now that he's not getting the same luck he was getting last season, we're seeing that he's got a long way to go before we start seeing some consistency.   

Edited July 1, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

Here's a table of what I'm referring to in regards to his progress: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,13,-1,120,121,40,48,-1,45,62,122&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=10310

 

I'm sure you know this by now since you're familiar with how FIP works, but ERA rarely tells the whole story, and there's no reason to limit yourself to that stat or other stats that rely on luck to some degree (such as AVG, WHIP). That's why I can't look at those numbers and declare "nope, no progress."

 

K% and GB% are core pitcher skills, ones that a pitcher has a lot of control over, and ones that even stabilize quicker than any other pitcher stat in a season, so I don't think you're being very fair by saying those increases "may be due to luck more than anything else." The walks still need work, clearly, but the process is there for a pitcher whose ERA should be a lot better than what it currently is this season. Like I said yesterday, maybe with better fortune and better execution from Wheeler himself, he'll turn it around a lot quicker than people think. 

Edited July 1, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Here's a table of what I'm referring to in regards to his progress: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,13,-1,120,121,40,48,-1,45,62,122&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=10310

 

Why would you chalk up an increase in strikeouts and groundballs to luck? Those are core pitcher skills. That just seems like a way to dismiss the numbers because they don't agree with you. 

 

You're more or less doing the same thing...picking out two numbers in particular out of many to say "See, he really is getting better", even though we're not seeing anything appreciable that supports that, in a lot of ways.  You're dismissing a lot of other numbers that DON'T show that he's improving.   

 

If you want to make a big deal out of K% and GB rates (and yes, he's allowed less HR this season), great, but he still throws a lot of pitches, is still prone to control issues (BB% is about the same for the 2013 and 2014 samples), and is still giving up a lot of baserunners.  Don't know how you just ignore all of that, unless you're purely going on "one little thing at a time", and hoping the Ks and GB rate are the first cornerstones in the foundation for improvement.  Maybe they are...I can't say that the uptick in these numbers is a bad thing...but right now they're not translating into anything tangible...most of his other numbers are still the same (the runners-on and RISP numbers are much worse...if anything, that could be showing that he's not getting the big K when he needs it). 

[nmigliore]

You're more or less doing the same thing...picking out two numbers in particular out of many to say "See, he really is getting better", even though we're not seeing anything appreciable that supports that, in a lot of ways.  You're dismissing a lot of other numbers that DON'T show that he's improving.

 

If you want to make a big deal out of K% and GB rates (and yes, he's allowed less HR this season), great, but he still throws a lot of pitches, is still prone to control issues (BB% is about the same for the 2013 and 2014 samples), and is still giving up a lot of baserunners.  Don't know how you just ignore all of that, unless you're purely going on "one little thing at a time", and hoping the Ks and GB rate are the first cornerstones in the foundation for improvement.  Maybe they are...I can't say that the uptick in these numbers is a bad thing...but right now they're not translating into anything tangible...most of his other numbers are still the same (the runners-on and RISP numbers are much worse...if anything, that could be showing that he's not getting the big K when he needs it). 

 

I'm showing numbers that strip out the luck factor and purely focus on what a pitcher controls. ERA, AVG, WHIP, etc. all have varying degrees of luck that can distort the picture. Just look back to Wheeler last season when he was pitching way over his head, or Bartolo Colon, who was a league average-ish pitcher masquerading as one of the AL's best pitchers.

 

I'm not going on one thing at a time, I just think you're just underestimating the power of those K% and GB% increases, probably because the results haven't shown yet; if you don't believe me, then look at what his FIP and xFIP say. Even with those walks, there's a pitcher in there who could be posting a sub-3.50 ERA. I'm not saying bad luck is purely to blame and Wheeler himself is blameless, to be clear, but there's a lot of room for "positive" regression there, which is why I keep saying with better luck AND with Wheeler executing better, he could turn this around quickly. If he suddenly finds the plate more (I doubt it), then he could really take-off. 

Edited July 1, 2014 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

This is why I'm glad you're back...seriously.  Back-and-forth spirited debate is good.  Much more fun than me posting on the progress of minor-leaguers and not getting much in the way of responses.

 

I'm still not 100% sold on FIP and xFIP, and posted why a while back (tend to minimize the "hittable" factor of some pitchers over others, defense gets too much blame for base hits, etc).  But I hope the positive regression happens for Wheeler.  I would love to see a solid and consistent second half from him that he can take with him into 2015.  He's still young though, and some guys do take a while...it wouldn't surprise me if he has roughly the same results he's had to date for the rest of this season.   

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Looks like the Dice K show is starting to come to an end.  This is a good thing...Gee is coming back, and deGrom deserves to keep his spot in the rotation.  Dice can always go back into the bullpen or even down to Vegas.  Oh well...Mets expected next-to-nothing from him and actually got a bit more than that. 

['7']

yea he pitched terribly and experienced some wildness tonight. Braves hit some ropes off of him. Luckily he was able to escape the 5th with the Mets still sort of in this game...but I think he belongs in the pen.

 

btw does Travis d'Arnaud think that 2b is somewhere near the batters eye? I think Lagares can probably camp under some of his throws on steal attempts. Good lord is he a disappointment. And yes I know he has a mini hot streak now...but I'm calling it luck. He hacks like a maniac at the plate. He's like Francoeur

 

I guarantee you that if he keeps swinging like this he's going to throw out his shoulder.

Edited July 2, 2014 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Travis has a lot to prove, no question.  And he's had mini hot-streaks before. 

 

BTW '7', Tejada has a .355 OB%.  I hate to say it, but if he keeps that up AND gets his BA into the .260s, I think he may be back here next season.  Yes, I hate the idea of that too.

Edited July 2, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

['7']

The time has come to cut Chris Young.

Now let's see what happens from this point

 

Will they be typical Mets and lose 6 of the next 7 (or even worse)

 

or will they put together a nice 4-3 road trip (heck even 3-4 would not be bad)

 

Not to toot my own horn but this actually happened.

['7']

Matt Reynolds is hitting .368 in Vegas. Small sample, only 38 Ab's...but if he can keep this up for another week or so bring him up. Why not? Just sh!tcan Tejada already. Could Reynolds do any worse?

 

also, bad start for Syndergaard. Hopefully he's just bored down there but it hasn't been pretty.

 

Man are things awful right now. The delusions continue.

 

Terry Collins: Mets not done yet

 

ATLANTA -- It's getting late early for the Mets. After losing to the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night, the Amazin's are now 10 games under .500 for the first time this season as well as a season-high nine games out of first place.

Still, Terry Collins is trying to keep the team upbeat. The manager noted that five of the Mets' next eight games are against division-leading Atlanta, including a four-game series beginning Monday at Citi Field.

"So the idea is to go out and win four of the next five," Collins said after Tuesday's 5-4 loss. ... You've just got to hang in there. We can't tuck our heads between our legs and feel bad for ourselves."

 

5 of the next 8 against Atlanta? Goody...you know how many we'll win. ZERO!

 

Edited July 2, 2014 by '7'

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

'7', I don't think Syndergaard is bored...I think he's just having a very difficult time (he's young for a AAA pitcher).  It's a good thing there's not really a need for a starter with Gee coming back, because he's clearly not ready.

 

Always funny how things work...Montero and Syndergaard were the hope, but now it's deGrom who's taken his chance and run with it (so far, anyway).  Not giving up on Montero or Syndergaard by any stretch, but it looks like it's going to take both of them some time to figure things out.  I'm giving up on them having any immediate impact for sure.

 

And re:  Tejada...he's a singles hitter who doesn't hit for average, but like I said, if he gets his average up into the .260s and his OB% into the .360s, we're going to hear about how he's made tremendous progress, and how he's still very young...all sales pitches as to why the position won't be upgraded in 2015.  I think it's a crock of sh!t too. 

 

And yeah, get Chris Young the fvck out of here already.  It's enough.  The guy is as lousy this season as he was last season.  Stop trying to make Chris Young happen.   

[nmigliore]

Yeah, I didn't expect deGrom to be the one of the Vegas three to be sticking in this rotation in July. Kudos to him for that. At the same time, I'd like to see more separation between his strikeouts and walks. He's having a very 2013 Wheeler-esque season.

 

2014 deGrom: 19.5 K%, 10.4 BB%, 3.62 ERA, 4.01 FIP, 4.04 xFIP

2013 Wheeler: 19.5 K%, 10.7 BB%, 3.42 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.21 xFIP

 

His K% minus BB% in AAA was 11.8% so it's not that shocking that has fallen to 9.1% against MLB hitters. The biggest surprise for me is that the groundballs have completely vanished for him; he was at 55% (percentage of balls in play that were groundballs) in Vegas, that's way down to 41% in MLB. 

Edited July 2, 2014 by nmigliore

['7']

absolute lifeless corpses. Campbell has to come up with that ball hit by Johnson in the 1st. It gets by him. Game ends

 

11 under (worse than last year somehow) 10 out. Mets have somehow dropped like 5 games in the standings in 5 days

 

On June 28th they were 5.5 out

Edited July 3, 2014 by '7'

[NJDevs4978]

And Sandy's still trying to delude us all into thinking this is a good team...'we're better than our record, look at our run differential!'  Which is laughable because they win the odd blowout and then lose seven straight 3-2, 2-1 games because they can't ****ing hit.  Even the Braves' backup closer had no problem with us lol

Edited July 3, 2014 by NJDevs4978

[nmigliore]

Mets have lost 4 in a row and 7 of their last 8. Jeez. Fangraphs' and Baseball Prospectus' rest of season projections both have them going 36-41, which would put them at 73 wins. Funny that this could be the worst season of the Alderson era when it was supposed to be a step-forward kind of year. Nobody was expecting them to contend, but a .500 team that hung around in the playoff race for awhile, not unlike what the Marlins are doing, wasn't out of the question. 

 

I'll be going to Saturday's game, haven't gone since late April when there were hurricane winds vs the Cardinals . Texas has been such a disaster this season. Injuries have taken a big toll but they've just as bad as the Mets, maybe worse. I really didn't like their Kinsler-for-Fielder swap initially and now it looks downright laughable now, with Kinsler having a big year (4th in the AL in WAR) and Fielder hitting like sh!t (.720 OPS) before landing on the DL for the rest of the season. Shin-Soo Choo, the $130 million dollar man, has heavily regressed and is hovering around replacement level (+0.3 WAR in 338 PA). 

Edited July 3, 2014 by nmigliore