Let's start a pool of where Brodeur will end up

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

i believe marty has more vezina trophys than anyone? correct

 

Hasek has six under the current voting format (instituted in 1981-82).  Marty's won four. 

[Beezer34]

Hasek has six under the current voting format (instituted in 1981-82).  Marty's won four. 

 

If I'm not mistaken.. Ken Dryden's won 5 in the span of 9 seasons.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

If I'm not mistaken.. Ken Dryden's won 5 in the span of 9 seasons.

 

The rules under which the award was given was different back then...it worked much like the Jennings Trophy.  From 1965-81, the team that allowed the fewest goals was given the award, with the goalie who played 25 games or more for that team getting the award recognition.  That's why I only noted the era from 1981-on.   

[Daniel]

Compilers aren't in multiple Vezina discussions as serious contenders to win. Marty as a compiler is silly, he's a record destroyer, not a guy meekly building up to an arbitrary round number.

 

It's also very hard to be a compiler as an NHL goalie even if that's your end game.  The number of goalies in any given year that can get at least 40 starts are very limited, and you can't bounce around from team to team and hope to start consistently.  It's not like an aging baseball player that, if he wants, can probably catch on as a utility player or a fifth starter somewhere and add an extra 80 hits, 50 strikeouts or 6 wins under the right circumstances.  For example, if Jeter wanted to add another 100 hits to his career total, I'm sure he could bounce around for another year or two somewhere if he wanted to.  An NHL goalie cannot do the equivalent, as  Marty is finding that out right now.

 

It's also debatable whether Marty would have gotten anything more than a one year deal after his last contract expired had the Devils been bounced in the first round in 2012. 

[Triumph]

Average age of retirement for an NHL player was 34-35 in 1977. In the 90's, few players played until 40 or beyond. If a player retired @ 37 or 38, it was considered a long career. (depending what age they started) Now.. players are playing well into their 40's.

1990 doesn't feel like 25 years ago, but it is. I can't predict what the average age of retirement will be in 2030, but I'd imagine the track-record(s) will continue to go up. Players are having longer careers as life-expectancy continues to go up. I'm not saying you'll definitely see a player break the wins record, but it's not impossible. Records were made to be broken.

 

Thing is, we're not seeing other Brodeurs.  You have to go to Roberto Luongo, age 34, to find the oldest goalie who had a better than average year.  When Brodeur was 34 he was arguably having his best years.   The other thing is that you almost certainly have to play more games than Brodeur because Brodeur spent 15 years playing for an excellent team that missed the playoffs once.  That's just not likely to happen.  Goalies don't start 70 games anymore - Lehtonen led the league with 65 games last year.  Let's assume a goalie plays 65 games for 18 years.  That's still fewer games than Brodeur has played.  Now not only does he have to do that, he has to win a large percentage of them - Brodeur's won 54.7%, which is an insanely high number for a career lasting that long.  

 

Life expectancy has nothing to do with longer careers.  Advances in medicine and larger commitments by players towards maintaining their health has done a lot.  I still don't see a lot of good 40 year old goalies out there, and that's what'll have to happen for anyone to beat Brodeur.

[Daniel]

Thing is, we're not seeing other Brodeurs. You have to go to Roberto Luongo, age 34, to find the oldest goalie who had a better than average year. When Brodeur was 34 he was arguably having his best years. The other thing is that you almost certainly have to play more games than Brodeur because Brodeur spent 15 years playing for an excellent team that missed the playoffs once. That's just not likely to happen. Goalies don't start 70 games anymore - Lehtonen led the league with 65 games last year. Let's assume a goalie plays 65 games for 18 years. That's still fewer games than Brodeur has played. Now not only does he have to do that, he has to win a large percentage of them - Brodeur's won 54.7%, which is an insanely high number for a career lasting that long.

Life expectancy has nothing to do with longer careers. Advances in medicine and larger commitments by players towards maintaining their health has done a lot. I still don't see a lot of good 40 year old goalies out there, and that's what'll have to happen for anyone to beat Brodeur.

The formula is a goalie that starts at 21 or 22 and on a very good team. Even without getting 70 starts a year, they have the advantage of no ties. So right now, Gibson is the only goalie in the league right now that you can throw out there just for fun. Vasilevski is perhaps another one.

I'll add that it's not beyond the realm of possibility that you'll see some goalie consistently getting 70 starts a year in the future. If I recall it was unusual even when Marty was doing. So it just might be one of those outliers that repeats itself.

I think it's the shut out record that won't be broken in my life time.

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[Triumph]

The formula is a goalie that starts at 21 or 22 and on a very good team. Even without getting 70 starts a year, they have the advantage of no ties. So right now, Gibson is the only goalie in the league right now that you can throw out there just for fun. Vasilevski is perhaps another one.

I'll add that it's not beyond the realm of possibility that you'll see some goalie consistently getting 70 starts a year in the future. If I recall it was unusual even when Marty was doing. So it just might be one of those outliers that repeats itself.

I think it's the shut out record that won't be broken in my life time.

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You're not realizing how hard it is to do this.  You have to average 33 wins a year for 20 years.  And then you're still not there - you still need 30 more.  You have to start your career by 23, otherwise you're done.  You have to be an NHL starter right away.  You can't get hurt very often.  You have to play 60+ games a year every year.  And you have to be good, and your team has to also be good, and it helps if your team is great.  

[devilsrule33]

You're not realizing how hard it is to do this.  You have to average 33 wins a year for 20 years.  And then you're still not there - you still need 30 more.  You have to start your career by 23, otherwise you're done.  You have to be an NHL starter right away.  You can't get hurt very often.  You have to play 60+ games a year every year.  And you have to be good, and your team has to also be good, and it helps if your team is great.  

 

Everything has to line up perfectly. Even with a very good team, it isn't enough. Pressure from the fans and the media on the players the GM, the coach. I can't prove it, but it just feels like GMs or coaches have more heat on them before. The Devils never had anyone to usurp Brodeur, but look what has happened in Vancouver with Luongo after the 12-year contract, or what happens every year in Philly. A bad season or two and you might be gone.

 

Even with a Cup to his resume before 2000, a different city, a different GM, a goalie prospect waiting and there might have been someone else in nets by the time 2000 came around.

[Daniel]

You're not realizing how hard it is to do this. You have to average 33 wins a year for 20 years. And then you're still not there - you still need 30 more. You have to start your career by 23, otherwise you're done. You have to be an NHL starter right away. You can't get hurt very often. You have to play 60+ games a year every year. And you have to be good, and your team has to also be good, and it helps if your team is great.

Not discounting any of that. And I didn't mean to say that I expect anyone to do it. It's just not an unbreakable record, which I consider those that existed in a completely different era of the game. The only hockey one that comes to mind is Glenn Hall's consecutive starts. Gretzky's goals and points are probably another.

Otherwise, so far as Marty, there's nothing that's changed that fundamentally that you can completely discount someone being as good, fortunate and durable as he's proven to be. If anything, the rules would favor the right goalie under the right circumstances getting more wins, i.e. no ties.

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[Triumph]

Not discounting any of that. And I didn't mean to say that I expect anyone to do it. It's just not an unbreakable record, which I consider those that existed in a completely different era of the game. The only hockey one that comes to mind is Glenn Hall's consecutive starts. Gretzky's goals and points are probably another.

Otherwise, so far as Marty, there's nothing that's changed that fundamentally that you can completely discount someone being as good, fortunate and durable as he's proven to be. If anything, the rules would favor the right goalie under the right circumstances getting more wins, i.e. no ties.

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It's as unbreakable as those records, it just doesn't look like it.  Don't forget the lockouts - like clockwork once every 8 years, it's a half season.

[dmann422]

You're not realizing how hard it is to do this.  You have to average 33 wins a year for 20 years.  And then you're still not there - you still need 30 more.  You have to start your career by 23, otherwise you're done.  You have to be an NHL starter right away.  You can't get hurt very often.  You have to play 60+ games a year every year.  And you have to be good, and your team has to also be good, and it helps if your team is great.

I think the start of the career is key. There aren't many goalies getting full fledged starting duties at 21 or 22 years old, and even then if they are getting 60 games a year it's probably on a team that's rebuilding and going through a youth movement. Part of it is because there are just too many average/quality goaltenders out there.

[Daniel]

It's as unbreakable as those records, it just doesn't look like it. Don't forget the lockouts - like clockwork once every 8 years, it's a half season.

I think lockouts will become less common or less severe. 2005 was one where the half the teams couldn't continue to operate as going concerns without fundamental changes, and this one was largely about getting rid of the long term deals. As it stands now, the main issue going forward will be adjusting the revenue split, perhaps escrow. Differences will arise for sure, but not with the fundamentals.

Again, it's just something where the stas have to align perfectly. It can happen. It's not the same as imagining a scenario where a goalie starts every game for five years in a row, when no goalie does that for even one year, and will never so so again,

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[dmon2010]

I think he'll be headed to Disneyland... just a guess.  Maybe DisneyWorld if he doesn't like the terms.

[BlueSkirt]

of course Brodeur's records can be broken. Specifically because 1.5 seasons were cancelled due to lockouts.  

 

Sure the recipe to break his Wins record has many, many difficult facets to repeat, but it is possible.

 

Until then, he's the GOAT.

 

And he was never a compiler.  He was "in it to win it" every year, every game.

 

At age 50, I'm confident that the Shutout record won't fall in my lifetime, but that's just my opinion.

I also don't expect to see the wins record fall, but its possible

 

I'll certainly enjoy watching other greats fall short of both !!

[SS#4-Life]

of course Brodeur's records can be broken. Specifically because 1.5 seasons were cancelled due to lockouts.  

 

Sure the recipe to break his Wins record has many, many difficult facets to repeat, but it is possible.

 

Until then, he's the GOAT.

 

And he was never a compiler.  He was "in it to win it" every year, every game.

 

At age 50, I'm confident that the Shutout record won't fall in my lifetime, but that's just my opinion.

I also don't expect to see the wins record fall, but its possible

 

I'll certainly enjoy watching other greats fall short of both !!

agree. no one is saying it would be easy, but there are def scenerios where it would happen. especially in the shootout era

[Triumph]

I think lockouts will become less common or less severe. 2005 was one where the half the teams couldn't continue to operate as going concerns without fundamental changes, and this one was largely about getting rid of the long term deals. As it stands now, the main issue going forward will be adjusting the revenue split, perhaps escrow. Differences will arise for sure, but not with the fundamentals.

Again, it's just something where the stas have to align perfectly. It can happen. It's not the same as imagining a scenario where a goalie starts every game for five years in a row, when no goalie does that for even one year, and will never so so again,

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The last 3 CBA expirations have resulted in a lockout.  I do not see what is different about the upcoming one.  The league will say they want 57% of revenues, the players will balk, and they will meet in the middle after canceling part of the season.  Whether it's 15 games or 30 games, something is getting canceled.

[DJ Eco]

Saw a Rangers fan on NHL.com saying Lundqvist was "without a doubt on track to surpass Brodeur's stats". Took something like 40 comments from different people to shut him up. Good trolljob, I guess..

[Daniel]

The last 3 CBA expirations have resulted in a lockout.  I do not see what is different about the upcoming one.  The league will say they want 57% of revenues, the players will balk, and they will meet in the middle after canceling part of the season.  Whether it's 15 games or 30 games, something is getting canceled.

 

The fewer things that are on the negotiating table, the easier it is to come to a deal.  From what I've read and otherwise recall, it took the two sides a long time to come to an agreement over limits on the length of contracts.  (As I recall, Daly said something to the effect that allowing for anything more than what ultimately came to be was a nonstarter, something like that). 

 

But whatever the case may be, it's much less likely that over the next 20 years the NHL is going to lose more games to labor disputes than it did over the past 20 years.  So if we're discussing whether Marty's win record is unbreakable, future labor disputes are not something that would make breaking that record less likely. 

[Triumph]

The fewer things that are on the negotiating table, the easier it is to come to a deal.  From what I've read and otherwise recall, it took the two sides a long time to come to an agreement over limits on the length of contracts.  (As I recall, Daly said something to the effect that allowing for anything more than what ultimately came to be was a nonstarter, something like that). 

 

But whatever the case may be, it's much less likely that over the next 20 years the NHL is going to lose more games to labor disputes than it did over the past 20 years.  So if we're discussing whether Marty's win record is unbreakable, future labor disputes are not something that would make breaking that record less likely. 

 

Length of contracts is a non-issue.  Don't you see that there will always be an issue like this and that as a result, there will be a prolonged stoppage?  It's all about the revenue split - the players have to give up more money every time out.  The owners basically take everything off the table and leave nothing for the players.  Then they start throwing stuff in as the negotiation moves along.  But to get the biggest piece of the pie they can, the owners have to lock the players out for a substantial period of time.  There's just no other way for it to work.

 

I agree that fewer games will be canceled - they won't miss a season again unless the players really drive a hard bargain (insanely) - but there will still be stoppages.  And I think the work stoppage probably helped Brodeur by giving him a full year off after he had basically averaged 70 games a season for a decade.

[Beezer34]

agree. no one is saying it would be easy, but there are def scenerios where it would happen. especially in the shootout era

 

What needs to happen.. is for a young kid to break into the league, and have one or two back-to-back seasons of exceptional goaltending.

 

Example: Say a very young goalie gets a break (due to injury or whatever) and performs well during his rookie season.. like wins 18 games, and he's 19 years old. Then his second season he wins 26 games. But his 3rd and 4th seasons are when he really breaks through.. and wins like 44 & 45 games. (still only 22 years old) At this point, even if he wins 30 games throughout his 5th & 6th season(s).. he's still way above average. (because he started his career so young) Hypothetically, he'd be 24 and would've already won nearly 200 games.

Now even at this point, it's still not in his favor, because; *A. He would need to stay relatively healthy for the majority of his career. --and; *B. He would need to play for a good team. But provided he qualify for both requirements.. do the math. If he played as long as Marty (19 more seasons, from 24 years of age) he would need to average 26 wins per year throughout the rest of his career, by the time he got to Brodeur's age. That would theoretically give him 700 wins.

 

..again.. no one is saying it's going to be easy. But it's hardly "impossible". I look at Brodeurs shutout record as impossible to break.. not the Wins Record.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

If someone gets to 500 wins or so by the age of 36 or so and is showing no signs of slowing down, then I'll start to think about the possibility of someone overtaking Marty.  But not until I see it happen. 

[SS#4-Life]

If someone gets to 500 wins or so by the age of 36 or so and is showing no signs of slowing down, then I'll start to think about the possibility of someone overtaking Marty. But not until I see it happen.

i agree. its not impossible to break per say, but i need 2 see someone get close before believing it. at this point no one is even on track to get to 600 let alone 700. not even hank

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

i agree. its not impossible to break per say, but i need 2 see someone get close before believing it. at this point no one is even on track to get to 600 let alone 700. not even hank

 

MAF is actually on about the same pace that Marty was at this point in his career, though slightly behind.  MAF will be 30 years old on 11/28 this season, and could have his 300th win by then (he currently has 288 in 531 GP).  By comparison, Marty won his 300th in his 548th game played (third-fewest number of games to hit that milestone at that time, behind Jacques Plante and Andy Moog), and was about 4.5 months shy of his 30th birthday when he did it.   

 

Of course, I don't make a whole lot out of the above...for one, he's not even halfway to Marty's win total, and for another MAF could find himself on a new team as soon as next season that isn't as good as the Penguins, he could get injured, he's never started more than 66 games in a season (by comparison, Marty started 70+ 11 times).  No one started more than 64 last season, and if you check out the number of goalies that consistently started 70+ games per season, Mikka Kiprusoff was the only recent one besides Marty to get a consistent 70+ game workload (6 straight seasons of 71+ starts).  You see other guys getting 70+ here and there, some for a few seasons, but nothing approaching Marty's workload...there's a reason why he has SO many more games played than everyone else. 

 

Basically, what was the norm for Marty (70+ starts for just about every season of his prime, with almost no long-term injuries) has very much become the exception for everyone else (and except for Kiprusoff, it pretty much always was the exception for everyone else...Hasek started 70+ in a season once, and Roy never did it).  No one starting more than 64 games last season could be an indication of where the league is headed...the guy who starts 70+ games could soon be a relic, which makes winning 40+ games year in and year out harder; that being said, it won't surprise me much if the Devils give Cory a shot to be a Marty-like exception and made him a consistent 70+ guy if he shows he can handle it without ill-effects.

 

Anyway, all of the above is basically a way of saying that Marty's win record is about as close as impossible to break as it gets, especially with the chance very likely being out of the goaltenders' hands (if their coaches all lean towards 65 GP or less, what can the goalies possibly do about it?).

Edited July 18, 2014 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Devils Pride 26]

Goalies are going the way of NFL running backs. Unless you have a great, durable one teams seem to be relying more on tandems

[Beezer34]

MAF is actually on about the same pace that Marty was at this point in his career, though slightly behind.  MAF will be 30 years old on 11/28 this season, and could have his 300th win by then (he currently has 288 in 531 GP).  By comparison, Marty won his 300th in his 548th game played (third-fewest number of games to hit that milestone at that time, behind Jacques Plante and Andy Moog), and was about 4.5 months shy of his 30th birthday when he did it.

 

NHL on the Fly recently touched on that same notion. By the time Marty turned 29, he had just concluded the 2001 season. At that point, he had won 286 games. Marc Andre Fleury has won nearly 300 games, and is still only 29 years old. Assuming Fleury plays 'till he's Marty's age.. that would leave him with 14 more seasons. If he averages 28 wins per season until his career ends, that would give him nearly 400 more wins. The trick to the whole thing is: Is he part of the long-term plans for Pittsburgh. Coming off a season where he won 39 games, and having posted a Sv% of .915 --I can't see why they wouldn't bring him back.