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Schneids Getting some Love from NHL.com


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I wonder what Schendier's save percentage would be if you took into account the notorious undercounting of shots against at home games, especially relative to overcounting of shots that other goalies get the benefit of.

 

Relatedly, it's something that I wish the talking heads will take into account when Marty finally retires and we're told he was overrated based on save percentage.  If you figure his shots against per home game over the course of his career have been undercounted by only one relative to the other goalies that will be in great goalies conversation, by my rough math it could add another .015 to his save percentage over the course of his career and in any particular season. I'm not holding my breath though.

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i think there was something like this done. .913 because .915, I believe. I'll see if I can find it

 

There was some kind of mathematical analysis that estimated how much his home shots against were undercounted.  But then there was the obviously small sampling that Mehta did that showed his shots against being undercounted by at least four or five in a particular game. 

 

I suppose that in the end you don't get as many shutouts and wins that Marty had with all sorts of turnover over the course of a 20 year career and have a below average save percentage even if he played behind a trapping/defense first kind of team. 

 

EDIT:  Well, perhaps not with the second paragraph.  I just looked at Chris Osgood who put up some very good win and decent shut out numbers with absolutely putrid save percentage.  In 2008-09 he was 26-9-8 despite a .887 save percentage.  Still, that was definitely reflected in his GAA which was 3.02.   Even at his worst, Marty's GAA got above 2.5 only a couple of times in his entire career.

Edited by Daniel
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I'd take Rask and Price this season over Lundqvist. That Lundqvist is the main reason for any of the Rangers' measure of success in the past 3-4 years doesn't translate to me as being the best goalie in the world right now, over some other guys out there. New York's defense is no slouch either, and his personal numbers are on the downswing; his numbers a couple years ago were better and around those several years was when I would say he was the best goaltender in the world. I'd take Rask or Price above Lundqvist any day of the week, and not only do their numbers tell the story why, but their role on the team (most notably Price's, on an "okay" defense) tells more.

 

I'd say Lundqvist and Schneider would round out as 3rd and 4th, with Schneider maybe pushing to 5th with Bobrovsky ahead of him, for reasons of less games played (not as proven as Sergei, if you're inclined to see it that way). Quick is on the downswing this year, like I always thought he would be as he neared the age of 30. His play in the playoffs is evidence of that, as he was mostly outplayed by Henrik Lundqvist, but had the better team around him. His super aggressive style of play allowed a short window of opportunity the past few years, but it's grueling and takes its toll on the body. He'll be very good this year, but I just see him getting slightly worse and worse as the years go by, not peaking around 30/early 30s like some other goalies.

 

But hot damn, does the East have some amazing goaltending, better (as a whole) than we've seen in a long time.

 

On a side note, I hope Pekka Rinne has a bounce-back year. To me, he was on pace to eventually be the best goaltender in the league before his team's roster was turned further into sh!t a couple years ago and especially before the injury this season. I regard him as having one of the best techniques and goaltending skills in the league, hope it translates in the numbers and wins department this season.

Edited by DJ Eco
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Relatedly, it's something that I wish the talking heads will take into account when Marty finally retires and we're told he was overrated based on save percentage.  If you figure his shots against per home game over the course of his career have been undercounted by only one relative to the other goalies that will be in great goalies conversation, by my rough math it could add another .015 to his save percentage over the course of his career and in any particular season. I'm not holding my breath though.

 

.015 is insane.  You would need to add more than 6000 shots to Marty's career total to get a career increase of .015.  That would be like ten shots every home game since not all Marty's games get played at home.  Over a season that's more than 500 shots (if you randomly added 500 shots to his 48-win season in 2006-07 his save percentage jumps from .922 to .936).  Which again would be over ten per game since realistically only the home games get lumped into the undercounting column. 

Edited by NJDevs26
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.015 is insane.  You would need to add more than 6000 shots to Marty's career total to get a career increase of .015.  That would be like ten shots every home game since not all Marty's games get played at home.  Over a season that's more than 500 shots (if you randomly added 500 shots to his 48-win season in 2006-07 his save percentage jumps from .922 to .936).  Which again would be over ten per game since realistically only the home games get lumped into the undercounting column. 

 

Yup, you are correct.  Guess I went to law school, because there would be no math. 

 

ADDENDUM:  My original screwy math, which I did off the top of my head, just added another save without increasing the number of shots.  In other words, I added to the numerator, but not the denominator.  So if you figure, in a typical 70+ start season he got one less shot and save per home game, roughly 35 more shots and 35 more saves, SMantzas is correct.  

Edited by Daniel
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Is there a site that has save % filtered by home and away starts? I would think that if you just looked at Marty's save % in road games that you'd get a more accurate number as that would avoid the issue of our home scorer undercounting shots.

And if you added the estimated 4-5 shots per home game that weren't counted, it would add about .007 to his career save % then, right?

Edited by ATLL765
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Is there a site that has save % filtered by home and away starts? I would think that if you just looked at Marty's save % in road games that you'd get a more accurate number as that would avoid the issue of our home scorer undercounting shots.

And if you added the estimated 4-5 shots per home game that weren't counted, it would add about .007 to his career save % then, right?

Hockey-Reference has home/away splits for goaltenders. Here is Brodeur's page. He has a career Away SV% of .914 in 618 GP, and a Home SV% of .910 in 641 GP.

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I wonder what Schendier's save percentage would be if you took into account the notorious undercounting of shots against at home games, especially relative to overcounting of shots that other goalies get the benefit of.

 

Relatedly, it's something that I wish the talking heads will take into account when Marty finally retires and we're told he was overrated based on save percentage.  If you figure his shots against per home game over the course of his career have been undercounted by only one relative to the other goalies that will be in great goalies conversation, by my rough math it could add another .015 to his save percentage over the course of his career and in any particular season. I'm not holding my breath though.

 

You've already noted that your back of the envelope math is incorrect, but I think the scorer thing is offset by how disciplined Devils teams were.  That means facing fewer 5 on 4 PP shots, which tend to go in at a higher rate, and it especially means facing fewer 5 on 3 shots, which go in at a substantially higher rate.  So let's look at how many minor penalties that resulted in an opposition PP that the Devils took relative to league average by year:

 

93-94:  -31

94-95:  -60

95-96:  -94

96-97:  -101

97-98:  -71

98-99:  -24

99-00:  -18

00-01:  -56

01-02:  -73

02-03:  -99

03-04:  -82

05-06:  -131

06-07:  -127

07-08:  -37

08-09:  -17

09-10:  -64

10-11:  -50

11-12:  -12

12-13:  +9

13-14:  -5

 

That's staggering.  The Brodeur-era Devils have taken 1143 fewer penalties than league average.  Imagine what a team like the Flyers was giving up over that time.  Assuming 1.5 shots per power play, that's 1714 shots that Brodeur did not face.  Granted, in the 1700 or so minutes that he missed out on playing on the PK relative to league average during that time, he probably faced around 680 shots, but still.  That's a lot of missing 12% shots.

 

I'm willing to grant that Brodeur's puckhandling may have saved some penalties, too.  Still, that's an average of 50 penalties per season - insane.

 

EDIT:  Forgot to correct this for the time that backup goalies or 1B goalies played in NJ over Brodeur's career.  Still, just chop 15% off all the numbers.

Edited by Triumph
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