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2015 Draft Thread

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I think the Devils witll pick either Pavel Zacha or Mathew Barzal, but if I had to put money on it I am thinking Pavel Zacha. He is 6' 3" and it seems teams like big centers

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i'd believe in BPA if we were a "regular" team in a regular situation. But were so so so soooooooo so so so thin on forwards that you have to take one. i mean you have to start somewhere.

 

And drafts are really a crapshoot. nothing guarantees that the player you're picking will make it and nothing guarantee that he'll really be better than the next guy. So why not just pick what we deeply need?

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Every gm and scout in the league probably has their own bpa ranking. Unless everyone agrees on an exact ranking for bpa it doesn't exist, IMO at least. Draft for need where we are.

Edited by Jerzey Devil

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i'd believe in BPA if we were a "regular" team in a regular situation. But were so so so soooooooo so so so thin on forwards that you have to take one. i mean you have to start somewhere.

 

And drafts are really a crapshoot. nothing guarantees that the player you're picking will make it and nothing guarantee that he'll really be better than the next guy. So why not just pick what we deeply need?

eh, i like his quote of "you can always rearrange the furniture."  maybe you end up with too many all-star defenseman, which can be turned into all-star forwards.  if you just up and take a forward because you need him, he has a lot less chance of being that all-star.

 

i normally always say go BPA.  its just i don't have a preference between Hannifan/Strome/ Marner, so I'd like to see us go forward if those three would somehow be there

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There's some chatter out there that NJ really likes Provorov. I wouldnt be upset if we picked him.

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I just worry about the "rearrange the furniture later" philosophy because you never know what kind of value you'll get back. The trade market could suck and we end up having to sell low.

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quick funny story, i just woke from a dream like an hour ago where i dreamt that Strome and Marner were both available at #6 and i remember i was still VERY nervous NJ was gonna mess it up

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quick funny story, i just woke from a dream like an hour ago where i dreamt that Strome and Marner were both available at #6 and i remember i was still VERY nervous NJ was gonna mess it up

Let's hope not ! Take s nap and finish the dream, who did they take?

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There's some chatter out there that NJ really likes Provorov. I wouldnt be upset if we picked him.

 

only D I'd take would be Hanifin since he was seen as head and shoulders above the other D until like this week. But if he's gone, Barzal or Crouse or Zacha or whoever, I don't know well enough to know who's the best one so any would be fine with me

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eh, i like his quote of "you can always rearrange the furniture."  maybe you end up with too many all-star defenseman, which can be turned into all-star forwards.  if you just up and take a forward because you need him, he has a lot less chance of being that all-star.

 

i normally always say go BPA.  its just i don't have a preference between Hannifan/Strome/ Marner, so I'd like to see us go forward if those three would somehow be there

 

But how would that happen? how long til one of our young dman has enough value to trade for a top 6 guy (IF they do get to that value)? and it would take awhile for us to really see what Hanifin has so we'd have to wait to make sure he's gonna be something before trading another one. Not a great process IMO

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quick funny story, i just woke from a dream like an hour ago where i dreamt that Strome and Marner were both available at #6 and i remember i was still VERY nervous NJ was gonna mess it up

Thats a dream all right...

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as much as this would be a dream dcorp in front of Schneider... we'd still be a terrible terrible team cause we'd have NOTHING up front. absolutely nothing. We have probably one of the worst top 12 in the entire league.

 

Greene Larsson

Severson Merril

Gelinas Hanifin

 

Schneider

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But how would that happen? how long til one of our young dman has enough value to trade for a top 6 guy (IF they do get to that value)? and it would take awhile for us to really see what Hanifin has so we'd have to wait to make sure he's gonna be something before trading another one. Not a great process IMO

well just the logic in general is just that when you label a player BPA, then you are saying that player is going to have the most potential. 

 

teams get in a lot of trouble drafting for need with a lottery pick, in many scenarios it could just be a waste of a pick. 

 

if you're passing on BPA at #6, and reaching for a forward instead, then you might as well just trade back in the draft, and select that foward at a later pick.

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i'd believe in BPA if we were a "regular" team in a regular situation. But were so so so soooooooo so so so thin on forwards that you have to take one. i mean you have to start somewhere.

 

And drafts are really a crapshoot. nothing guarantees that the player you're picking will make it and nothing guarantee that he'll really be better than the next guy. So why not just pick what we deeply need?

 

Drafting for need is a mistake. It's not the NFL where everybody is basically playing right away. You take BPA. It's not a bad thing to have "too many" excellent young defensemen especially when we're talking about the talent level of Hanifin and Provorov, who are the only two guys worth considering over a forward. We also have 2 2nd rounders to work with and can easily find strong forward talent there or package them to move back up into the first. It also depends on who's left on the board. If Marner is there, I think he gets chosen, but if the top 5 falls as its rumored to, it's imperative to take BPA with #6. No matter who we pick could tank, hell McDavid could tank. That's why BPA is the safe move rather than reaching for a guy just because we need a forward. If we took Provorov and he turns out to be as good, if not better, than advertised that opens a lot of doors to making moves for sure thing forwards in trade, not draft picks who are all potential. We're not going to be fixed overnight and with one pick. We're likely to stink again this coming season and will be in the same position give or take a few spots next season where a forward could be BPA in our spot.

 

This could all be smoke blowing anyway. Lets say Barzal is our target. He's going to be there at 6, as is Zacha. If either of these guys are our targets this could all be positioning to get a great deal to move down a couple of spots. At the same time, if Provorov is the target, they're obviously high on him for a reason. His talent is no joke. Be excited if thats the name who's called tomorrow night. He's a Doughty type of player.

 

Look at this sh!t lol

 

No matter who we take is going to be at least a year or two away from contributing on any Devils team anyway. 

Edited by ghdi

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as much as this would be a dream dcorp in front of Schneider... we'd still be a terrible terrible team cause we'd have NOTHING up front. absolutely nothing. We have probably one of the worst top 12 in the entire league.

 

Greene Larsson

Severson Merril

Gelinas Hanifin

 

Schneider

 

The thing is, whatever forward we draft, we're still going to have one of, if not the worst top 12 in the league, at least for another year or two.  I understand that eventually you need to get serious about putting forwards in the system though, as you might hope for, but can't really count on anything beyond the first round being much better than forward you can in a trade where you don't have to give up a lot or in free agency at any particular point in time. 

 

So I agree with the approach that the Devils appear to have taken in the past couple of years is to draft a forward unless the defensive prospect is someone that's too good to pass up at a particular spot.  Based on his reputation, Hanifin at six appears to be that type of player, especially since none of the forwards that will be available at six are truly can't miss.  Of course, if he's available at six, you get Columbus on the phone since it's pretty clear that's who they see as the big prize.  I'd also hope that Shero is gauging interest on trades if Provorov is available at 6, which he likely will be, although it isn't a guarantee. 

 

EDIT:

 

Here's a fairly plausible mock that shows Hannifin falling to 6.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sam-cosentinos-2015-nhl-mock-draft/

Edited by Daniel

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The thing is, whatever forward we draft, we're still going to have one of, if not the worst top 12 in the league, at least for another year or two.  I understand that eventually you need to get serious about putting forwards in the system though, as you might hope for, but can't really count on anything beyond the first round being much better than forward you can in a trade where you don't have to give up a lot or in free agency at any particular point in time. 

 

So I agree with the approach that the Devils appear to have taken in the past couple of years is to draft a forward unless the defensive prospect is someone that's too good to pass up at a particular spot.  Based on his reputation, Hanifin at six appears to be that type of player, especially since none of the forwards that will be available at six are truly can't miss.  Of course, if he's available at six, you get Columbus on the phone since it's pretty clear that's who they see as the big prize.  I'd also hope that Shero is gauging interest on trades if Provorov is available at 6, which he likely will be, although it isn't a guarantee. 

 

EDIT:

 

Here's a fairly plausible mock that shows Hannifin falling to 6.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/sam-cosentinos-2015-nhl-mock-draft/

 

i understand the BPA approach in general. but we're SO bad. How are we possibly gonna get a legitimate top 6 ? would be fair to assume that at the very least half of them have to be drafted. Then sure we can trade but thats taking a step back cause were gonna be sending assets that we should be "adding" rather than trade.

 

Say in a perfect world you can sign a decent UFA or 2 each summer and that one of your youngster makes the team... following that path were like..... 6 years away from been decent. 

 

We have NO ONE to build around on offence, absolutely no one. You want to draft those guys. Like i said i totally understand the mentality but our team is so baddly managed and in bad shape that we requirer a different approach IMO. you trade down or up or something.

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Craig Morgan ‏@cmorganfoxaz 11m11 minutes ago Phoenix, AZ

Coyotes GM Don Maloney says he's up to 4-5 "legitimate offers" for the No. 3 overall pick in the NHL Draft, with 3 to 4 more "tire-kickers."

Wow. This is getting pretty nuts. Also, I believe this is good news seeing how most of those teams are likely targeting Provorov or Hanifin

@SWhyno: #NHLJets have two mid-first round picks. Cheveldayoff told me Tuesday Winnipeg is willing to trade up big time.

@cmorganfoxaz: Coyotes GM Don Maloney said one team offered him a pair of mid-first round picks and a player Wednesday evening for the No. 3 pick. Hmmmm...

Edited by MadDog2020

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Drafting for need is a mistake. It's not the NFL where everybody is basically playing right away. You take BPA. It's not a bad thing to have "too many" excellent young defensemen especially when we're talking about the talent level of Hanifin and Provorov, who are the only two guys worth considering over a forward. We also have 2 2nd rounders to work with and can easily find strong forward talent there or package them to move back up into the first. It also depends on who's left on the board. If Marner is there, I think he gets chosen, but if the top 5 falls as its rumored to, it's imperative to take BPA with #6. No matter who we pick could tank, hell McDavid could tank. That's why BPA is the safe move rather than reaching for a guy just because we need a forward. If we took Provorov and he turns out to be as good, if not better, than advertised that opens a lot of doors to making moves for sure thing forwards in trade, not draft picks who are all potential. We're not going to be fixed overnight and with one pick. We're likely to stink again this coming season and will be in the same position give or take a few spots next season where a forward could be BPA in our spot.

 

This could all be smoke blowing anyway. Lets say Barzal is our target. He's going to be there at 6, as is Zacha. If either of these guys are our targets this could all be positioning to get a great deal to move down a couple of spots. At the same time, if Provorov is the target, they're obviously high on him for a reason. His talent is no joke. Be excited if thats the name who's called tomorrow night. He's a Doughty type of player.

 

Look at this sh!t lol

 

No matter who we take is going to be at least a year or two away from contributing on any Devils team anyway. 

 

First off, even though I know what it means, I hate the term 'best player available', as if that's something knowable.  I know it means 'the player who seems best to us right now'.  

 

Look, 95% of the time I agree with you.  Maybe even a higher percentage.  But the Devils just cannot take a defenseman here unless they are guaranteed that he is going to be top pairing defenseman.  He HAS to be.  Because otherwise his value is slop.  It's easy to look at the supposed pile of assets that the Devils have on D.  Trouble is, here's their value -

 

Gelinas:  almost nothing - draft pick or similar 'high potential' forward

Merrill:  who's giving up a lot for a guy who's shown no offense in 2 years in the NHL?

Larsson:  UFA in 3 years.  Valuable, can certainly get you back a scoreline young forward in a trade, but this won't be true soon.

Severson:  Too valuable to trade.

 

And then there's Greene who is really good but is going to be on the decline soon.

 

D get hard to trade if they don't latch on and succeed immediately.  Occasionally you get an L. Schenn for JVR swap, but teams have a way harder time believing that a D in a league that isn't the NHL is any good.  That's how the Habs came to trade Ryan McDonagh.  You look at what high 1st round D have netted when they move teams in recent years, it's not a ton at forward.  Jack Johnson, Erik Johnson, Cam Barker, Braydon Coburn, Thomas Hickey, Luke Schenn - these are all D that were drafted in the top 10 and who were traded (or worse) early in their career and the returns just are not there.   Yes, Cam Barker netted a lot of value, but he was still traded for a defenseman.  You just don't see a ton of D for F trades, it's hard to do.  Either the guy isn't fitting in, in which case he has to go and his value is too low, or he's quite good and you think he can get better and so why are you trading him?  

 

Then you have to consider the fact that Provorov is Russian and even if he is good he can always jump to the KHL or at least use them as a negotiating partner, thereby lowering his value to NJ by increasing his salary demands.  Even though I want the Devils to get involved with Russians because they are drafted too low in general now these days, they typically don't provide great value contract-wise.  It's something that has to be considered - a very minor consideration - but one that needs to be considered.

 

And I haven't even mentioned NJ's bare cupboard at forward, where the forwards look like this in 3 years:

 

?-?-?

Boucher hopefully - Henrique but probably not - ?

Cammalleri on the decline - Zajac on the decline - ?

A bunch of guys who can do this

 

The D in 3 years to me looks like:

 

Greene-Severson

Hopefully Merrill-Larsson

Who Cares-Who Cares, but hopefully Santini

 

They have to draft a forward.  They can talk a big game about 'BPA', they absolutely must draft a forward.  If they can trade down and still do so, great, do that.  

Edited by Triumph

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i understand the BPA approach in general. but we're SO bad. How are we possibly gonna get a legitimate top 6 ? would be fair to assume that at the very least half of them have to be drafted. Then sure we can trade but thats taking a step back cause were gonna be sending assets that we should be "adding" rather than trade.

 

Say in a perfect world you can sign a decent UFA or 2 each summer and that one of your youngster makes the team... following that path were like..... 6 years away from been decent. 

 

We have NO ONE to build around on offence, absolutely no one. You want to draft those guys. Like i said i totally understand the mentality but our team is so baddly managed and in bad shape that we requirer a different approach IMO. you trade down or up or something..

 

If we take a defenseman at 6 it doesn't mean we're locked in to keeping all of them. Having too many at one position creates trade opportunities. I don't understand your near-sightedness here. It's arguable that a Hanifin or Provorov end up better than Larsson or Severson. One of those guys becomes more expendable as an asset to get that top 6 forward, and rather than a draft pick only having potential it creates an opportunity to get that young impact forward as a sure thing. The draft isn't the only way we can acquire young forwards. Again, we have 2 2nd round picks in this very deep draft. We are minimum a few years away from being a competitive team again as it stands, but there's no reason we can't turn it around in 2 or 3. Lots of things can happen. The Devils are set up well financially going forward, but we need to acquire young assets to continue to add pieces going forward. 

 

Sure, we can take Barzal, Zacha, etc. and they could end up being the impact forward we need, just the same we could take one of them and they end up being a career 3rd liner. There's no guarantees with the draft.  That's why BPA is the optimal choice. You take BPA and you're working from a position of strength provided that guy pans out, but that applies just the same if BPA is a forward. Drafting for need is silly unless the forward is the BPA. I think there's plenty of potential for the BPA to be a forward at #6, but if Ivan Provorov is there, he has to be considered over guys like Barzal and Zacha. That's the type of talent he potentially possesses. If Marner is there (and I think that looks less likely as we get closer to the draft) than it becomes easier to take the forward.

 

I personally think Barzal falls out of the top 10 unless the Devils take him. Zacha probably won't fall that far. If Barzal is the target, I'm supportive of the idea of trading down a few spots to allow someone to take Provorov and keep him out of Philly and we get Barzal at 8-10. I'm more supportive of just drafting Provorov if he's there, but I also won't be surprised if Provorov goes in the top 5. Then that means that someone has fallen to us, whether its Marner or Hanifin or even Strome. There's too many possibilities to stay locked on anyone b/c the potential is there for us to hit a homerun at 6.

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