ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Defensemen are always harder to predict than forwards. Teams have a way better success rate on forwards in the 1st round than defensemen, even at the top of the draft I believe this is true. I just don't buy the idea that either of these guys are 'guaranteed' 1st pairing D, especially not Provorov, who while he had a solid year, he did so on a team that was loaded. The Devils already have their D to build their team around. Now it's time to get some forwards. I don't see having too many good young defensemen as being a problem, but I don't disagree with you that forward should be the priority. All of these potential forwards come from good teams really. Marner with London. Strome with McDavid. If we're going from that perspective than why aren't we championing Lawson Crouse? Edited June 25, 2015 by ghdi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 If we take a defenseman at 6 it doesn't mean we're locked in to keeping all of them. Having too many at one position creates trade opportunities. I don't understand your near-sightedness here. It's arguable that a Hanifin or Provorov end up better than Larsson or Severson. One of those guys becomes more expendable as an asset to get that top 6 forward, and rather than a draft pick only having potential it creates an opportunity to get that young impact forward as a sure thing. The draft isn't the only way we can acquire young forwards. Again, we have 2 2nd round picks in this very deep draft. We are minimum a few years away from being a competitive team again as it stands, but there's no reason we can't turn it around in 2 or 3. Lots of things can happen. The Devils are set up well financially going forward, but we need to acquire young assets to continue to add pieces going forward. Sure, we can take Barzal, Zacha, etc. and they could end up being the impact forward we need, just the same we could take one of them and they end up being a career 3rd liner. There's no guarantees with the draft. That's why BPA is the optimal choice. You take BPA and you're working from a position of strength provided that guy pans out, but that applies just the same if BPA is a forward. Drafting for need is silly unless the forward is the BPA. I think there's plenty of potential for the BPA to be a forward at #6, but if Ivan Provorov is there, he has to be considered over guys like Barzal and Zacha. That's the type of talent he potentially possesses. If Marner is there (and I think that looks less likely as we get closer to the draft) than it becomes easier to take the forward. I personally think Barzal falls out of the top 10 unless the Devils take him. Zacha probably won't fall that far. If Barzal is the target, I'm supportive of the idea of trading down a few spots to allow someone to take Provorov and keep him out of Philly and we get Barzal at 8-10. I'm more supportive of just drafting Provorov if he's there, but I also won't be surprised if Provorov goes in the top 5. Then that means that someone has fallen to us, whether its Marner or Hanifin or even Strome. There's too many possibilities to stay locked on anyone b/c the potential is there for us to hit a homerun at 6. Well there you said it. "there's no guarantees with the draft" so what tells you that the BPA is really the BPA? There's one thing for sure. We need forwards... and a lot of them. Another thing is for sure, the BPA at the draft might not be the BP that was available at that position so we could easily screw ourselves not only not going after an urgent need. but on top of that not having what we need. I'd rather get a forward who might not be the next big thing but solid enough to have a spot on the team for years to come than having a guy who didnt pan out who was also not even what we needed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) Well there you said it. "there's no guarantees with the draft" so what tells you that the BPA is really the BPA? There's one thing for sure. We need forwards... and a lot of them. Another thing is for sure, the BPA at the draft might not be the BP that was available at that position so we could easily screw ourselves not only not going after an urgent need. but on top of that not having what we need. I'd rather get a forward who might not be the next big thing but solid enough to have a spot on the team for years to come than having a guy who didnt pan out who was also not even what we needed Look we all agree that the draft is a crapshoot, it comes down to what our scouting department think. One thing that Conte and company have proven is their knowledge of defensemen. If we draft Provorov or Hanifin, I'm confident that was the right pick. We absolutely need forwards, but I don't think the guys potentially available to us is necessarily the right pick over one of the two defensemen, but again I don't think a Barzal or Zacha is a bad pick, I just think we have more options if that is the guy we're targeting and the defenseman should be considered. This is all moot if Hanifin and Provorov are gone by 6. Edited June 25, 2015 by ghdi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 i seem to have the same mindset going in as you do. just curious, if Marner, Strome, Hannifin, and Provorov are all there at #6... whos your pick? That's more or less an impossible scenario. If either Marner or Strome are available there, it almost necessarily means that Provorov and Hannifin are already gone. On the trade front, apparently it's been confirmed as much as these things can be that Columbus offered 8, Rychel and Anisimov for Number 3, pretty obviously with Hanifin in mind. Assuming Arizona turns that down and they keep the pick, there's a strong likelihood that one of either Provorov or Marner will be available at 6. If Provorov is there, maybe Columbus does 8 and Rychel for Provorov. Coming out of the first day of the draft with Rychel and Barzal, Zacha or even Crouse would be a nice haul. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I don't see having too many good young defensemen as being a problem, but I don't disagree with you that forward should be the priority. All of these potential forwards come from good teams really. Marner with London. Strome with McDavid. If we're going from that perspective than why aren't we championing Lawson Crouse? Marner's numbers are still impressive if you adjust for team. Provorov's less so. Too many young D is a problem when you consider how many D for F trades are made these days. It is just not very many. It is not easy to trade a defenseman. Devils fans have been waiting for a D for F trade for 3 years. Now I see fans saying that the Devils should wait another year to make a trade like this. When will it actually happen? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 That's more or less an impossible scenario. If either Marner or Strome are available there, it almost necessarily means that Provorov and Hannifin are already gone. On the trade front, apparently it's been confirmed as much as these things can be that Columbus offered 8, Rychel and Anisimov for Number 3, pretty obviously with Hanifin in mind. Assuming Arizona turns that down and they keep the pick, there's a strong likelihood that one of either Provorov or Marner will be available at 6. If Provorov is there, maybe Columbus does 8 and Rychel for Provorov. Coming out of the first day of the draft with Rychel and Barzal, Zacha or even Crouse would be a nice haul. I don't think he was asking from a perspective of it being possible. It is impossible all 4 of those guys are there. Id take Marner over those 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Onddeck Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Well there you said it. "there's no guarantees with the draft" so what tells you that the BPA is really the BPA? There's one thing for sure. We need forwards... and a lot of them. Another thing is for sure, the BPA at the draft might not be the BP that was available at that position so we could easily screw ourselves not only not going after an urgent need. but on top of that not having what we need. I'd rather get a forward who might not be the next big thing but solid enough to have a spot on the team for years to come than having a guy who didnt pan out who was also not even what we needed well the thing about the "forward who might not be the next big thing but solid enough to have a spot on the team" is that he can be had later in the draft. Lottery pick needs to be BPA. Im not saying take Provorov over Marner. But if Marner and Strome are off the board, then the pick HAS to be one of those dmen. or trade back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Marner's numbers are still impressive if you adjust for team. Provorov's less so. Too many young D is a problem when you consider how many D for F trades are made these days. It is just not very many. It is not easy to trade a defenseman. Devils fans have been waiting for a D for F trade for 3 years. Now I see fans saying that the Devils should wait another year to make a trade like this. When will it actually happen? It depends on the defenseman obviously. A guy like Larsson is coveted, I think he becomes potentially expendable if Hanifin or Provorov is drafted. And Ive already said if Marner is there, that's who I'd want. It's completely dependent on who is there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) But if Marner and Strome are off the board, then the pick HAS to be one of those dmen. or trade back This is exactly where I stand. If either of those d-men are there, the potential for trading back with a good return for doing so will be there too. If Marner or Strome is there, I'm pretty much locked into them. But I'm perfectly content taking Hanifin or Provorov. Edited June 25, 2015 by ghdi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 As I posted earlier, there are a ton of teams trying to move up to 3 to get Hanifin. There's also a report out there from Flyers beat writer, Tim Pinaccio who says that Flyers are trying to move up to get Provorov. Really think there is a realistic chance Strome or Marner are available for NJ. As Kovy once said, "this is dream" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 As I posted earlier, there are a ton of teams trying to move up to 3 to get Hanifin. There's also a report out there from Flyers beat writer, Tim Pinaccio who says that Flyers are trying to move up to get Provorov. Really think there is a realistic chance Strome or Marner are available for NJ. As Kovy once said, "this is dream"Pretty sure Kovy's quote was 'this is team' lol. Nonetheless, I'd be stoked if Marner or Strome was there for us, but I'm not counting on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Pretty sure Kovy's quote was 'this is team' lol. Nonetheless, I'd be stoked if Marner or Strome was there for us, but I'm not counting on it. hahaha you're right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Pretty sure Kovy's quote was 'this is team' lol. Nonetheless, I'd be stoked if Marner or Strome was there for us, but I'm not counting on it. I'm not either, but the potential remains that one of them falls. If the buzz about potential move ups is true, #6 is going to be very hot in terms of a property if either D-man is still there. And if they're gone that means one of those two (Strome/Marner) have fallen. I really don't want to see Philly get Provorov. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I've thought about this a bit, and this can't be a BPA draft. NJ has to take a forward at 6 or wherever they go. The Devils organization is completely empty at the forward position. They need a forward in the worst way, and my goodness, they need to nail this pick. You can't rely on stocking up on defensemen, and hoping they all look great so you can trade one for an excellent forward down the line. Not sure which teams make the picks, but the top 5 seems clear to me. With a few teams desperately trying to grab Hanifin, that should make the decision very easy anyway for Shero and co. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I've thought about this a bit, and this can't be a BPA draft. NJ has to take a forward at 6 or wherever they go. The Devils organization is completely empty at the forward position. They need a forward in the worst way, and my goodness, they need to nail this pick. You can't rely on stocking up on defensemen, and hoping they all look great so you can trade one for an excellent forward down the line. Not sure which teams make the picks, but the top 5 seems clear to me. With a few teams desperately trying to grab Hanifin, that should make the decision very easy anyway for Shero and co. So you're saying you believe Provorov is in the top 5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Devils731 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Pronman tweeted that's is a minority of scouts, but some believe Hanifin would have been drafted before Ekblad if both were in the same draft. Ekblad is a nice guy to be compared to, draft value wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devilsrule33 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 So you're saying you believe Provorov is in the top 5? I have trouble seeing it anything but McDavid, Eichel then some combination of Strome, Marner, Hanifin. Hope to be wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I have trouble seeing it anything but McDavid, Eichel then some combination of Strome, Marner, Hanifin. Hope to be wrong! Canes are really that wildcard. Top 2 are set You gotta believe #3 will be Hanifin based on all this chatter If Hanifin is 3, Toronto is rumored to like Provorov or Marner Canes wouldnt take Marner if at 4 based on some talk there. Maybe they'd take Provorov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Triumph Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I've thought about this a bit, and this can't be a BPA draft. NJ has to take a forward at 6 or wherever they go. The Devils organization is completely empty at the forward position. They need a forward in the worst way, and my goodness, they need to nail this pick. You can't rely on stocking up on defensemen, and hoping they all look great so you can trade one for an excellent forward down the line. Not sure which teams make the picks, but the top 5 seems clear to me. With a few teams desperately trying to grab Hanifin, that should make the decision very easy anyway for Shero and co. That's something else I forgot to mention - when you have a bad team, literally every player on that team is losing value. Derpy GMs who put a lot of stock in playoff performance don't have any to look at. No one's scoring, so everyone's goals and points are suppressed relative to league average. The idea of boosting anyone's value so that they can be traded for a valuable player on another team is ludicrous. Edmonton has basically squandered anyone who was good on their 2007+ team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SterioDesign Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 this is going to be me all week if we make a bad pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zubie#8 Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Waiting for this day to end....tomorrow will be fun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 (edited) I've thought about this a bit, and this can't be a BPA draft. NJ has to take a forward at 6 or wherever they go. The Devils organization is completely empty at the forward position. They need a forward in the worst way, and my goodness, they need to nail this pick. You can't rely on stocking up on defensemen, and hoping they all look great so you can trade one for an excellent forward down the line. Not sure which teams make the picks, but the top 5 seems clear to me. With a few teams desperately trying to grab Hanifin, that should make the decision very easy anyway for Shero and co. There's a difficult scenario where one of Hannifin or Provorov is there and the next best forwards are let's say Barzal or Zacha. Your scouts feel that there's a good shot that Hanifin will be as good as Pronger and Provorov is Erik Karlsson, while Barzal might turn out to be a little better than Henrique and Zacha may be another second line power forward type. It's very tough to pass up on one of the defenseman even given the organizational needs. Or, to put it another way, if you had the Devils same roster in 2008, and were picking number 4, the right move would still have been to take Pietrangelo over Colin Wilson the next forward selected that wasn't a bust. So while I agree you shouldn't be drafting with the expectation that you'll get a good return for redundant assets, if you feel that the defenseman available is going to be a star, maybe you'd be better off hoping you hit paydirt on a forward in the later rounds. Edited June 25, 2015 by Daniel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lateralous Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I wouldn't have a problem if we end up with one of Provorov/Hanifin at 6. This is too important of a pick to end up with anything but the best possible asset. It's actually pretty exciting that Provorov seems to have moved up enough in the eyes of the scouts that the second drop off in talent now seems to occur after #6 as opposed to what previously appeared to be a clear top 5. if we do end up with one of the high end D-man with our 1st, what could make me lose my mind would be drafting anything but forwards in the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 I wouldn't have a problem if we end up with one of Provorov/Hanifin at 6. This is too important of a pick to end up with anything but the best possible asset. It's actually pretty exciting that Provorov seems to have moved up enough in the eyes of the scouts that the second drop off in talent now seems to occur after #6 as opposed to what previously appeared to be a clear top 5. if we do end up with one of the high end D-man with our 1st, what could make me lose my mind would be drafting anything but forwards in the 2nd. Reading the tea leaves from Shero's latest interview, it seems like they'll be looking to trade down if Marner or Strome is not available at six. Relatedly, if Columbus can't trade up for Hanifin, would it be worth it to play a game of chicken with Columbus and draft Provorov with the hope of trading him shortly before Columbus picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lateralous Posted June 25, 2015 Share Posted June 25, 2015 Reading the tea leaves from Shero's latest interview, it seems like they'll be looking to trade down if Marner or Strome is not available at six. Relatedly, if Columbus can't trade up for Hanifin, would it be worth it to play a game of chicken with Columbus and draft Provorov with the hope of trading him shortly before Columbus picks? If we could squeeze out Rychel to go along with a guy like Barzal at 8, sure. Again, I'm not too worried about leaving the draft with a Hanifin or Provorov, so I personally would be fine playing that game of chicken. Who knows what our scouts are thinking though. I really hope we can land Senyshyn from Sault St Marie in the 2nd. IMO, he's going to absolutely explode next year with increased playing time now that the older Greyhounds will be moving on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.