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2015 Draft Thread


thefiestygoat
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Honestly, I think we're better than Philly and Toronto and we may or may not catch Colorado, Ottawa, CBJ and/or Minnesota. I can easily see us picking anywhere from 6-10, which will more than likely have us miss out on McD, Eichel, Marner and Strome. I'd be fine with Barzal, Zacha or Rantanen. I'm actually warming up to Crouse a tad. Kingston doesn't have any PPG players and he seems to be a very good goal scorer. Plus he has a late June birthday I'd rather have the bolded but I wont be angry with LC

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Honestly, I think we're better than Philly and Toronto and we may or may not catch Colorado, Ottawa, CBJ and/or Minnesota. I can easily see us picking anywhere from 6-10, which will more than likely have us miss out on McD, Eichel, Marner and Strome. I'd be fine with Barzal, Zacha or Rantanen. I'm actually warming up to Crouse a tad. Kingston doesn't have any PPG players and he seems to be a very good goal scorer. Plus he has a late June birthday I'd rather have the bolded but I wont be angry with LC

 

Very good goalscorer? Eeeeh. 

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NHL Numbers had an interesting post focusing on size when it comes to drafting. They looked at 3,355 player seasons (from 1987-88 to 2008-09) for CHL forwards in their 17 year old, 1st draft eligible season and sorted them based on points per game and size and found what percentage of those guys ended up playing more than 200 NHL games. Size and points per game obviously isn't everything but it is an interesting piece of the puzzle.

It also gives a size and points per game ranking for this year's CHL forwards available in the draft. A guy like Dylan Strome has an 82% success rate to end up as a NHL player while a guy like Lawson Crouse has a 10% success rate. I was surprised to see Yevgeni Svechnikov at 82%. Though he does play in the QMJHL which is a more offensive league and could inflate his points per game total. Of course there is a lot more to drafting than just these two factors but I found it interesting to read.

I'd wager the team is shooting unlucky

For what it's worth, CHL Stats has Kingston shooting at 8.10% which is the 3rd lowest in the OHL.

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If a team wins the draft lottery do they hold that position for the second round? For example if the Flyers finished 5th place and they won the lottery do they draft 31st or 35th in the second round (trying not to jinx us by using the Devils).

 

They only move up for the first round

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  • 3 weeks later...

Time for some updates...

 

Craig's List Top 100 for February

 

1a. C Connor McDavid (Erie - OHL)

1b. C Jack Eichel (Boston University - NCAA)
3. RW Mitch Marner (London - OHL)
4. C Dylan Strome (Erie - OHL)
5. D Ivan Provorov (Brandon - WHL)
6. D Noah Hanifin (Boston College - NCAA)
7. D Zach Werenski (Michigan - NCAA)
8. D Oliver Kylington (Farjestad - SHL)
9. C Kyle Connor (Youngstown - USHL)
10. C Nick Merkley (Kelowna - WHL)

Surprised that he has Provorov ranked that high but not surprised that player has jumped up in the rankings. He was impressive the few times I've seen him play. Still it seems like Hanifin is the consensus #1 D available and should go #3. Merkley is an interesting prospect, small but put up almost a point per game in his age 16 season last year and now has 75 points in 55 games. He has played for a stacked Kelowna team though. 

 

Bob McKenzie's Midseason Top 60 after surveying 10 NHL scouts.

 

1. C Connor McDavid (Erie - OHL)

2. C Jack Eichel (Boston University - NCAA)
3. D Noah Hanifan (Boston College - NCAA)
4. C Dylan Strome (Erie - OHL)
5. RW Mitch Marner (London - OHL)
6. LW Lawson Crouse (Kingston - OHL)
7. C Pavel Zacha (Sarnia - OHL)
8. D Zach Werenski (Michigan - NCAA)
9. RW Mikko Rantanen (TPS - Liiga)
10. C Mathew Barzal (Seattle - WHL)

Not surprised at that top 5. I'm hoping the Devils can land either Strome or Marner but I have a feeling they won't finish low enough.

 

Interesting article by Travis Yost of TSN looking at the value of draft picks and packages of them in trades to see what type of picks/packages end up becoming NHL players. Good read for Devils fans prior to the deadline imo.

 

ISS Top 30 for February

 

1. C Connor McDavid (Erie - OHL)

2. C Jack Eichel (Boston University - NCAA)
3. LW Lawson Crouse (Kingston - OHL)
4. D Noah Hanifin (Boston College - NCAA)
5. RW Mikko Rantanen (TPS - Liiga)
6. D Zach Werenski (Michigan - NCAA)
7. C Dylan Strome (Erie - OHL)
8. RW Mitchell Marner (London - OHL)
9. D Ivan Provorov (Brandon - WHL)
10. C Mathew Barzal (Seattle - WHL)

As usual, I'm not really a fan of ISS.

Edited by thefiestygoat
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I think Pronman is supposed to have an in depth analysis of Crouse, which will discuss what makes him an intriguing prospect to a lot of people despite his lack of point production for a forward prosect that some have in their top five. Behind the paywall probably.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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Time for some updates...

 

Craig's List Top 100 for February

Surprised that he has Provorov ranked that high but not surprised that player has jumped up in the rankings. He was impressive the few times I've seen him play. Still it seems like Hanifin is the consensus #1 D available and should go #3. Merkley is an interesting prospect, small but put up almost a point per game in his age 16 season last year and now has 75 points in 55 games. He has played for a stacked Kelowna team though. 

 

Bob McKenzie's Midseason Top 60 after surveying 10 NHL scouts.

Not surprised at that top 5. I'm hoping the Devils can land either Strome or Marner but I have a feeling they won't finish low enough.

 

Interesting article by Travis Yost of TSN looking at the value of draft picks and packages of them in trades to see what type of picks/packages end up becoming NHL players. Good read for Devils fans prior to the deadline imo.

 

ISS Top 30 for February

As usual, I'm not really a fan of ISS.

Strome is the guy I really, really, really want to get in this draft, assuming we don't win the lottery. Putting up ~2ppg and has the size you look for in a top center. If I was LL and Strome is slated to be picked somewhere right in front of us, I'd be asking what it would take to get that pick. I'd definitely trade away our at least our 1st and a 2nd rd pick, especially if we acquire an extra 2nd, to move up a few slots to draft Strome. His brother Ryan is very talented and Dylan has put up 33-61-94 in 50 GP already, which is better than the 33-73-106 in 65 GP that Ryan put up in in his draft year.

I know we have a big hole at RW in NJ as well as in the system, but we're ok for LWs right now with Cammalleri, Elias, Henrique and we still have guys like Boucher, Matteau, Black, Quenneville and Kujawinski in the system who all shoot left and have a realistic shot at making the NHL. Because of that I'm 100% convinced that a top center is the most important missing piece on this team.

You need that #1 guy in all 3 positions. We have it in net with Schneider and there's a good chance that Severson could be that guy on defense, plus Larsson has looked very good lately as well, but we just do not have that guy on offense.You can find a decent RW in FA, but it's impossible to acquire a truly elite center that way. I think this year is our best shot at getting that player via the draft and you absolutely need that #1 center in today's NHL.

 

 

Interesting article by Travis Yost of TSN looking at the value of draft picks and packages of them in trades to see what type of picks/packages end up becoming NHL players. Good read for Devils fans prior to the deadline imo.

Read this and it was pretty good. I wish he would have used different cutoffs for the picks though. Maybe something more like 400GP for a 1st rd pick, 300 for a 2nd, 200 for a 3rd and 100 for rounds 4-7. That way it would be more representative of a successful pick rather than just showing which picks became replacement level NHL players when that is considered a bust for picks in the top 100 picks of the draft.

Edited by ATLL765
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Pronman's article on Crouse just came out.  It's behind the paywall, but here's the link anyway.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/post?id=709&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Pronman_CrouseTop10

 

Here's the best snippet if you can't read the whole thing:

 

 

In the case of Crouse, the scouting analysis shows us that we have a winger whose skating and puck skills are good (but not great), is great defensively, has high-end hockey sense and has an elite physical game. That combination of skills projects a reasonable ceiling of that player being an above-average scoring NHLer, who clearly isn’t top-line caliber in scoring, but plays very well versus the opponent’s best forwards, and can be one of a team’s top penalty killers. If that outcome is realized, this is a very valuable asset for any NHL team, and certainly any of the teams looking to be picking in the top 10 of this year's draft.

 

 

Any argument now that Crouse is not a first-round prospect -- or even a top-20 pick -- is entirely unreasonable. I currently have him slotted as the 10th-best prospect in the draft, and there’s a reasonable case to be made for his being taken even earlier than that.

 

This sounds kind of like Bobby Holik, without having the time to think of other comparisons.  Obviously a very good player in his time, but not really what a team that can't score to save its life really needs. 

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Pronman's article on Crouse just came out. It's behind the paywall, but here's the link anyway.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/post?id=709&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Pronman_CrouseTop10

Here's the best snippet if you can't read the whole thing:

This sounds kind of like Bobby Holik, without having the time to think of other comparisons. Obviously a very good player in his time, but not really what a team that can't score to save its life really needs.

The only player i can think of nowadays is maybe David Backes over in STL?
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OHL Prospects Midseason Media/Scout Top 10

 

Canaucks Army has been doing some interesting draft analysis lately...

The NHL Draft: Maybe Size Does Matter

 

Size Does Matter: Defencemen

 

Both divide CHL players into separate categories based on height and points per game data from their first draft eligible year.

 

Draft Theory: Height Matters, But Maybe Due to Bias

 

The NHL Draft: Boys Playing in a Man's League

 

Looks at the success of U18 players playing in men's leagues in Sweden.

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Hockey Prospect Top 30 for February

 

1. C Connor McDavid (Erie)
2. C Jack Eichel (Boston University)
3. D Noah Hanifan (Boston College)
4. C Pavel Zacha (Sarnia)
5. RW Mitchell Marner (London)
6. C Dylan Strome (Erie)
7. D Ivan Provorov (Brandon)
8. LW Lawson Crouse (Kingston)
9. D Zach Werenski (Michigan)
10. D Jeremy Roy (Sherbrooke)

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Those who know what they're talking about (because I obviously and clearly don't) - of the bolded below, who's your pick?  And why?

 

1. C Connor McDavid (Erie)
2. C Jack Eichel (Boston University)
3. D Noah Hanifan (Boston College)
4. C Pavel Zacha (Sarnia)
5. RW Mitchell Marner (London)
6. C Dylan Strome (Erie)
7. D Ivan Provorov (Brandon)
8. LW Lawson Crouse (Kingston)
9. D Zach Werenski (Michigan)
10. D Jeremy Roy (Sherbrooke)

Edited by Devilsfan118
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