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2015 Draft Thread


thefiestygoat

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A lot would depend on if they land one of McDavid or Eichel, which is a pretty good possibility. If that happens they immediately have a first line center that's probably better than RNH right now.

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No, they wouldn't.  You seriously overrate how good young players are (or are drastically underrating RNH, who is a legit first line center).  That said, the Oilers are quite unlikely to end up with Eichel.

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No, they wouldn't. You seriously overrate how good young players are (or are drastically underrating RNH, who is a legit first line center). That said, the Oilers are quite unlikely to end up with Eichel.

They're the third worst team with one more game played and point ahead of the second worst team. That gives pretty good odds at Eichel.

RNH hit 20 goals for the first time in his career, and he's often hurt. I think you might be overrating him a bit. It would be a huge disappointment if McDavid or Eichel did not eclipse his numbers in their rookie years, but maybe that's not what you meant by overrating young players.

So far as overrating Hannifin, admittedly I'm going on the hype, as I say I'm not a scout. A lot of people have said he would be the first pick in a lot of drafts if not for two generational talents in front of him. Although if he fell to seven, something might be missing.

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They're the third worst team with one more game played and point ahead of the second worst team. That gives pretty good odds at Eichel.

RNH hit 20 goals for the first time in his career, and he's often hurt. I think you might be overrating him a bit. It would be a huge disappointment if McDavid or Eichel did not eclipse his numbers in their rookie years, but maybe that's not what you meant by overrating young players.

So far as overrating Hannifin, admittedly I'm going on the hype, as I say I'm not a scout. A lot of people have said he would be the first pick in a lot of drafts if not for two generational talents in front of him. Although if he fell to seven, something might be missing.

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If you finish 2nd you have only a 25% chance at drafting 2nd.  And I think they are clearly better than Arizona or Buffalo, so I don't think it's that likely that they will finish 2nd.

 

You are overrating young players.  RNH is a 1st line center.  It's not likely that either McDavid or Eichel will be right away.  Their offense will be good, sure.  They will be terrible compared to other 1st line centers at defense.

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If you believe in the McDavid-Crosby and Eichel-Modano comparisons, which I think are fair, I think it's a pretty safe bet that both will be 1st line level players next season. For comparison, Crosby had 102 points in his rookie season, Modano had 75, so again, if you believe in those comparisons, those are 1st line numbers.

 

You cannot compare players this way - players aren't reincarnations of one another like some sort of Dalai Lama arrangement.  They're their own thing.  I never said they won't be 1st line players offensively next season - probably McDavid will be, less likely that Eichel will be but it's still possible.  I'd expect 60 points out of McDavid next year which would be 1st line material in the offensive environment of today.  However, young players are typically horrible at defense, and if someone like McDavid is going best on best every night, that's a matchup he is going to lose, most nights.  I would expect Nugent-Hopkins to be a better player than either guy next season, even if I don't think that will be true when McDavid is 19 or any other year going forward.

Edited by Triumph
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is the explanation in this link correct?

 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/draft-lottery-odds/

 

I thought there was one lottery drawing, for the 1st overall pick.  then, the remaining teams go in inverse order.  the link above, though, states that there is a lottery for the first 3 spots...

Top 3 starts next year. This year only the first pick will be determined by lottery.

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is the explanation in this link correct?

 

http://www.mynhldraft.com/2015-draft/draft-lottery-odds/

 

I thought there was one lottery drawing, for the 1st overall pick.  then, the remaining teams go in inverse order.  the link above, though, states that there is a lottery for the first 3 spots...

 

As pointed out, thats for next year.

 

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795

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The NHL.com guys have released their latest mock drafts. Here's Adam Kimelman's list and Mike G. Morreale's list
 
Kimelman has the Devils taking RW Mikko Rantanen (TPS - Finland):

 

The 6-4, 209-pound power forward led all under-21 players in Liiga, Finland's top professional league, in scoring this season. Scouts love his skating, especially for a player of his size. Physical play doesn't bother him, which means he could make a quick adjustment to North American hockey. Was Finland's best player at the WJC with a team-high four goals.

 

Morreale has the Devils taking LW Kyle Connor (Youngstown - USHL):

 

The 6-foot-1, 177-pound University of Michigan recruit leads the United States Hockey League with 69 points; also has 29 goals, 22 power-play assists and seven game-winning goals. He has great quickness in tight spaces. Has elevated his game this season and makes things happen with the puck on his stick.

 

I'd be happy with a Rantanen pick. He's 18 and has already played over 108 games in the SM-Liiga. According to QuantHockey he has been above the 75th percentile in points per game which is fairly impressive given his age. His goals per game is just under the 75th percentile but he has a 5.1 SH% so it's not like he's had luck on his side. With his frame and skillset, it probably wouldn't take him a long time to be NHL ready.
 
I like Connor but I feel like taking him with a top 10 pick may be a little bit of a reach. Seems more like a solid mid-1st round guy imo.
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I agree about both Rantanen and Connor. It seems that Morreale's mock draft is far off from what most others are predicting (Marner going 8th, Edmonton passing on Hanifin, Barzal and Zacha in the second half), though anyway.

 

What's interesting is how far Kylington has fallen in this draft. I recall him being the top D prospect earlier on.

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I looked up Rantanen highlights for the first time today and definitely wouldn't mind having him. Hes big, and can get to the net... kinda reminds me of the way Malkin plays, or similar to the projections Nichushkin received.

No way we take Connor that early, that mock is a little ridiculous all around.

A Strome/ Marner are the only others Id wanna see NJ get that could realistically fall to us

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I looked up Rantanen highlights for the first time today and definitely wouldn't mind having him. Hes big, and can get to the net... kinda reminds me of the way Malkin plays, or similar to the projections Nichushkin received.

No way we take Connor that early, that mock is a little ridiculous all around.

A Strome/ Marner are the only others Id wanna see NJ get that could realistically fall to us

The problem is it's Lou and Conte we're talking about here. Even if we end up dropping and drafting 6th it wouldn't surprise me at all if Lou takes Crouse, Connor, or Werenski. Hell I still won't be too surprised if he trades the pick.

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The problem is it's Lou and Conte we're talking about here. Even if we end up dropping and drafting 6th it wouldn't surprise me at all if Lou takes Crouse, Connor, or Werenski. Hell I still won't be too surprised if he trades the pick.

Man I really hope they dont do that, not at 7

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Man I really hope they dont do that, not at 7

 

Lou has that "All in every year" attitude. He doesn't really think too far ahead into the future. Almost all of us want him to take that high offensive ceiling center or RW but you know he's thinking two way, defensive, system player. I won't be surprised at all if he trades down and takes one of my aforementioned players instead of addressing the need for offense. The fact that he keeps saying you can find offense via trades or free agency is why I say that.

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Lou has that "All in every year" attitude. He doesn't really think too far ahead into the future. Almost all of us want him to take that high offensive ceiling center or RW but you know he's thinking two way, defensive, system player. I won't be surprised at all if he trades down and takes one of my aforementioned players instead of addressing the need for offense. The fact that he keeps saying you can find offense via trades or free agency is why I say that.

 

You have no idea what he's thinking.

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Lou has that "All in every year" attitude. He doesn't really think too far ahead into the future. Almost all of us want him to take that high offensive ceiling center or RW but you know he's thinking two way, defensive, system player. I won't be surprised at all if he trades down and takes one of my aforementioned players instead of addressing the need for offense. The fact that he keeps saying you can find offense via trades or free agency is why I say that.

 

Up until recently, the Devils were picking in the bottom of the draft and were a perennial playoff team.  Those are the types of teams that can usually afford to do a best player available approach.

 

Since at least leading up to the 2013 draft, Lou has consistently said that the team needs younger forwards, and the strategy is to draft a forward unless there's a defenseman they feel is too good to pass up.  The Devils drafting has largely reflected this, except for the trade for Schneider, which you'd do everytime even in hindsight except if you're of the opinion that the Devils need to hit rock bottom.  

 

As I've said before, I think Conte focuses too much on size over skill, but that's really just a layman's viewpoint.   

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Up until recently, the Devils were picking in the bottom of the draft and were a perennial playoff team.  Those are the types of teams that can usually afford to do a best player available approach.

 

Since at least leading up to the 2013 draft, Lou has consistently said that the team needs younger forwards, and the strategy is to draft a forward unless there's a defenseman they feel is too good to pass up.  The Devils drafting has largely reflected this, except for the trade for Schneider, which you'd do everytime even in hindsight except if you're of the opinion that the Devils need to hit rock bottom.  

 

As I've said before, I think Conte focuses too much on size over skill, but that's really just a layman's viewpoint.   

 

The Devils have drafted the following people under 6 feet tall since 1995:  Petr Sykora, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Nicklas Bergfors, Mattias Tedenby.  Matt Corrente isn't overly big either.  And these are just the people I can think of - they also signed Andy Greene, Brian Rafalski, and John Madden over this period (and Taormina and Joe Whitney and so on).   If anything the Devils are one of the most progressive teams with regard to size.

No but I can assume. I've been watching his moves foe 25 years or so.

 

You haven't watched very close if you think that he favors two-way players in the draft and trading down.

Edited by Triumph
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The Devils have drafted the following people under 6 feet tall since 1995: Petr Sykora, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Nicklas Bergfors, Mattias Tedenby. Matt Corrente isn't overly big either. And these are just the people I can think of - they also signed Andy Greene, Brian Rafalski, and John Madden over this period (and Taormina and Joe Whitney and so on). If anything the Devils are one of the most progressive teams with regard to size.

You haven't watched very close if you think that he favors two-way players in the draft and trading down.

Besides Tedenby who was the last forward they took in the first round who wasn't a two way player?

 

 

These are our 1st round picks for the last 15 years:

 

Non two way forwards:

 

Tedenby (2008)

Bergerfors (2005)

 

Two way forwards:

 

Quenneville (2014)

Matteau (2012)

Josefson (2009)

Zajac (2004)

Parise (2003)

Foster (2000) (don't really remember much about him)

 

Defenders:

 

Corrente (2006)

Larsson (2011)

Edited by Jerzey Devil
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The Devils have drafted the following people under 6 feet tall since 1995:  Petr Sykora, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez, Zach Parise, Nicklas Bergfors, Mattias Tedenby.  Matt Corrente isn't overly big either.  And these are just the people I can think of - they also signed Andy Greene, Brian Rafalski, and John Madden over this period (and Taormina and Joe Whitney and so on).   If anything the Devils are one of the most progressive teams with regard to size.

 

 

 

It's hard to say that there isn't a recent trend with the Devils looking for Zubrus types or just big bodies over players that had more offensive upside, notwithstanding the picks you mentioned, the most recent of which was drafted six years ago.  You see it with Matteau, Baddock, Thomson and Chatham.  The former three I'm not sure who was available, but Chatham over Point in the third round does lead me to believe there's something to my hypothesis.  I also think trading out of a spot where they could have drafted someone like Petain might have had something to do with it.

 

Who knows, maybe Conte has gotten on the "we need to find our Milan Lucic" bandwagon. 

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They haven't really been in a position to take a super-skilled but defensively suspect player over a two-way forward in the first round.

 

Personally I don't really think BPA should exist after the top 10 (maybe 15) unless it's an incredibly deep draft. It's mostly luck as to who will turn into something special after that point. Like the Swedish scout for the Red Wings said (as per the other thread) you can find 4th liners anywhere. Might as well swing for the fences. I know he's talking about the later rounds but I think it should pertain to the earlier rounds too. Especially when your options are Quenneville and Matteau. Why not take a chance at that point?

 

Edited by Jerzey Devil
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Besides Tedenby who was the last forward they took in the first round who wasn't a two way player?

 

 

These are our 1st round picks for the last 15 years:

 

Non two way forwards:

 

Tedenby (2008)

Bergerfors (2005)

 

Two way forwards:

 

Quenneville (2014)

Matteau (2012)

Josefson (2009)

Zajac (2004)

Parise (2003)

Foster (2000) (don't really remember much about him)

 

Defenders:

 

Corrente (2006)

Larsson (2011)

 

You aren't comparing this to any other team.  And so that's a problem - no one is drafting all skilled forwards in the 1st round.  The Flyers have a pretty good draft record over the last 15 years and you can do pretty much the same exercise for them, only their hits on skill players are Giroux and Jeff Carter and ours are misses on Bergfors and Tedenby.

 

 

Personally I don't really think BPA should exist after the top 10 (maybe 15) unless it's an incredibly deep draft. It's mostly luck as to who will turn into something special after that point. Like the Swedish scout for the Red Wings said (as per the other thread) you can find 4th liners anywhere. Might as well swing for the fences. I know he's talking about the later rounds but I think it should pertain to the earlier rounds too. Especially when your options are Quenneville and Matteau. Why not take a chance at that point?

 

It's entirely possible that those were the BPA - if you look at the late 1st/2nd round in 2012 already it looks pretty wretched, with a lot of guys having brutal 1st pro seasons.

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Foster was the exact kind of pick that people are kind of begging for, except, in hindisght, it came way too early.  Going into midget he was ranked as highly as Dany Heatly, but had injury issues in junior.  It was a total swing for the fences kind of move by arguably the best Devils' team ever.  The major problem with the pick was that it was pretty obvious that you could have gotten him at least two rounds later. 

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Foster was the exact kind of pick that people are kind of begging for, except, in hindisght, it came way too early.  Going into midget he was ranked as highly as Dany Heatly, but had injury issues in junior.  It was a total swing for the fences kind of move by arguably the best Devils' team ever.  The major problem with the pick was that it was pretty obvious that you could have gotten him at least two rounds later. 

 

You have no idea if this was the case.  Just because CSS didn't rank him doesn't mean this is true.

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