Is Phil Kessel the answer?

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Speaking of the Leafs...it's not getting any better for David Clarkson.  He now has one goal and one assist in his last 20 GP (he was actually off to a pretty good start this season...8 goals through 27 GP). 

 

Clarkson's Leaf numbers:  107 GP, 14 G, 10 A, -22.  Of course everyone knew he would probably never have another 2011-12-type season in him, but it wasn't crazy for the Leafs to hope for 15-20 goals along with some of the other things Clarkson can bring. 

 

re:  Phil...man, he's got a lot of money coming to him...$8 mil per year through 2021-22.  Still only 27 years old, but contracts like that always scare me. 

[redruM]

What would you be willing to give up to acquire him?

 

I would part with Gelinas, Boucher, 1st, and Ryder. Not sure if that gets it done, but we need a dynamic RW, and Kessel certainly fits that billing. 

 

 

I'd do this in a second... I'd be shocked if Toronto would do it...

 

Kessel is the sniper we have not had in forever, but I'd have Gomez as his center not Elias...

[DJ Eco]

Yeah, totally agree, and Lou knows that we need an identity of our own, not a juxtaposition of other team's identities, which, quite evidently in cases like the Leafs, Rangers etc. doesn't work. 

 

Can't compare Leafs and Rangers. Rangers were in the Finals last year and could very well be back there again this year; hell, they have a chance at winning the Cup. You know why? Because Rick Nash is on a PPG this season and already has 28 goals. More often than not, Phil Kessel is producing at that pace. The Leafs problems are all over the ice and organization around Phil Kessel. 

 

You have to pay to play, and it costs $7-8m now to have these kinds of players. No team that will contend this year will NOT have these players, most teams in the playoffs will have 3 or 4 of them. We have none.

 

Now, on the topic of WHAT IT WOULD TAKE to get him, that's another story. I can't see them wanting all that much of what we have, if it doesn't include a combination of at least Henrique/Larsson/Severson and/or this year's 1st round. Not sure I want to go that route.

 

 

 

re:  Phil...man, he's got a lot of money coming to him...$8 mil per year through 2021-22.  Still only 27 years old, but contracts like that always scare me. 

 

That's unfortunately where the league's headed. Kovalchuk's $6.66m was a drop in the bucket in the long run compared to what elite players are costing. He gets a lot of heat, but even Zajac's $5.75m is par for the course nowadays for a top 2 Center. Gotta pay to play nowadays, or we'll be stuck with more rosters where Bernier and Gomez are on our first line for a few more years.

Edited January 20, 2015 by DJ Eco

[Daniel]

So was listening to Bill Watters on NHL radio who said he would dump Kessell for a fifth rounder. I assume the guy is a blowhard, and he was exaggerating, but I think the ability of home town media to drive someone's price down is real. And Toronto media is already rumbling about tanking. Obviously you can't give up nothing to get him, but a much shrewder team got hosed for Seguin.

Is Gelinas and a second totally crazy?

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[Triumph]

So was listening to Bill Watters on NHL radio who said he would dump Kessell for a fifth rounder. I assume the guy is a blowhard, and he was exaggerating, but I think the ability of home town media to drive someone's price down is real. And Toronto media is already rumbling about tanking. Obviously you can't give up nothing to get him, but a much shrewder team got hosed for Seguin.

Is Gelinas and a second totally crazy?

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Yes.  Bill Watters is a blowhard - it's hard to believe an NHL team employed him, but then again it's not at all - and Loui Eriksson + shedding Peverley's salary is still way better than Gelinas + 2nd.  The Devils should not be interested in Phil Kessel, and I don't see this Toronto management group entertaining trading him for at least another year.

[CarpathianForest]

I would rather see Gelinas for Hudler.

[William D'Aquila]

You know how I feel. Ideal deal is Gelinas, Boucher, Ryder, and our 1st for Kessel and their first.

[Daniel]

Yes. Bill Watters is a blowhard - it's hard to believe an NHL team employed him, but then again it's not at all - and Loui Eriksson + shedding Peverley's salary is still way better than Gelinas + 2nd. The Devils should not be interested in Phil Kessel, and I don't see this Toronto management group entertaining trading him for at least another year.

If the Leafs are selling low, I'd be interested. A right wing that can score goals, exactly what this team does not have. The other thing is that I imagine the buyers will be limited, given the contract.

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[Triumph]

If the Leafs are selling low, I'd be interested. A right wing that can score goals, exactly what this team does not have. The other thing is that I imagine the buyers will be limited, given the contract.

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Toronto's management group are not morons anymore.  They know that you cannot give away Phil Kessels for free because they don't just appear in your lap.  Furthermore, the Devils aren't going to be good next year either, and Kessel will be on the decline (he already is, but more so) by the time the Devils actually can start to ramp back up again.

[Daniel]

Toronto's management group are not morons anymore. They know that you cannot give away Phil Kessels for free because they don't just appear in your lap. Furthermore, the Devils aren't going to be good next year either, and Kessel will be on the decline (he already is, but more so) by the time the Devils actually can start to ramp back up again.

On the decline? He's 27 with no chronic injuries that I'm aware of. They were saying the same thing about an older Rick Nash, who is now a Hart contender, except perhaps in that world where everything matters but scoring and being involved in scoring goals.

As to how dumb Toronto's management might be . . . I brought it up because Kessel and Phaneuf seem to be public enemies number 1 and 2 in the Toronto press, which doesn't count for nothing, or it might not. (Clarkson might be worse, except he's untradeable unless you're paying someone to take him a la Malakhov, and he's a "character guy".) And the destinations would seem limited, based on his contract, which the Devils are in a position to make work pretty easily. That is, unless you're of the view that Larsson, Merrill and Severson are in line to make enormous raises, which would be the NHL equivalent of first world problems.

As to things that are completely off limits, definitely Severson and this year's first.

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Edited January 23, 2015 by Daniel

[Triumph]

On the decline? He's 27 with no chronic injuries that I'm aware of. They were saying the same thing about an older Rick Nash, who is now a Hart contender, except perhaps in that world where everything matters but scoring and being involved in scoring goals.

As to how dumb Toronto's management might be . . . I brought it up because Kessel and Phaneuf seem to be public enemies number 1 and 2 in the Toronto press, which doesn't count for nothing, or it might not. (Clarkson might be worse, except he's untradeable unless you're paying someone to take him a la Malakhov, and he's a "character guy".) And the destinations would seem limited, based on his contract, which the Devils are in a position to make work pretty easily. That is, unless you're of the view that Larsson, Merrill and Severson are in line to make enormous raises, which would be the NHL equivalent of first world problems.

As to things that are completely off limits, definitely Severson and this year's first.

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Yes, 27 year old scoring forwards are on the decline.  Once again, your whole ONE EXAMPLE which you think disproves stuff doesn't work.  Oh, how's Rick Nash doing this year?  Is he shooting 33% over his career shooting percentage?  Hmm, what are the odds - he is.  So yeah, it's not a steep decline, and it's not always a steady decline, but it's a decline.  Think of a scoring forward, any one you like - his best year was probably before age 27.  And Kessel's signed for 8 more years, so if that decline becomes steeper, there's no getting out of it.  Kessel's a one-dimensional guy, he's really good at that dimension, but I hate to imagine his mid 30s with 1000 games under his belt.

 

You keep talking about the media - the media do not run the team.  The team's management are no longer dumbsh!ts.  Watters was the AGM there once upon a time.  He's a dope.  It's not hard to see how Lou Lamoriello crushed this league in the 90s and early 00s.  I could see them moving Phaneuf, but even that seems unlikely.

Edited January 23, 2015 by Triumph

[Daniel]

Yes, 27 year old scoring forwards are on the decline. Once again, your whole ONE EXAMPLE which you think disproves stuff doesn't work. Oh, how's Rick Nash doing this year? Is he shooting 33% over his career shooting percentage? Hmm, what are the odds - he is. So yeah, it's not a steep decline, but it's a decline. Think of a scoring forward, any one you like - his best year was probably before age 27. And he's signed for 8 more years, so if that decline becomes steeper, there's no getting out of it. Kessel's a one-dimensional guy, he's really good at that dimension, but I hate to imagine his mid 30s with 1000 games under his belt.

You keep talking about the media - the media do not run the team. The team's management are no longer dumbsh!ts. Watters was the AGM there once upon a time. He's a dope. It's not hard to see how Lou Lamoriello crushed this league in the 90s and early 00s. I could see them moving Phaneuf, but even that seems unlikely.

I have no idea if he's declining or not, or more precisely to what extent, to be honest, and frankly I doubt you know whether he is either. He's 27. His contract will be up when he's 35 or 36 when who knows what the cap will be, and there are plenty of players who are good at that age, and plenty who are not. If you want to constantly freak out about what the cap situation will be by then, you'll forever be waiting for Godot, especially with this team that has no one you can count on to score goals with consistency that's under 30, and even there it's slim pickings. Still, the point is taken that he's one dimensional, although our "two way" players -- Zajac and Henrique -- don't look so great compared to that older supposedly one dimensional guy at the moment -- Cammalerri.

And I did not say the media runs the team. I suggested teams are not immune to it, however rational they want to say they are, especially in a place like Toronto. So I understand that Kessell is not getting traded for nothing, as Watters suggests, but that it might be a buyers market, nonetheless. Gelinas and a second, probably won't work either. But if it's next year's first, and one of the defenseman who might be a second pairing type for a 27 year old ppg or close to that type player, that's not something you can dismiss out of hand, even with the contract. Even in the worst case scenario it can't be as bad as what happened to Montreal with Gomez, and they recovered decently enough.

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[Triumph]

I have no idea if he's declining or not, or more precisely to what extent, to be honest, and frankly I doubt you know whether he is either. He's 27. His contract will be up when he's 35 or 36 when who knows what the cap will be, and there are plenty of players who are good at that age, and plenty who are not. If you want to constantly freak out about what the cap situation will be by then, you'll forever be waiting for Godot, especially with this team that has no one you can count on to score goals with consistency that's under 30, and even there it's slim pickings. Still, the point is taken that he's one dimensional, although our "two way" players -- Zajac and Henrique -- don't look so great compared to that older supposedly one dimensional guy at the moment -- Cammalerri.

And I did not say the media runs the team. I suggested teams are not immune to it, however rational they want to say they are, especially in a place like Toronto. So I understand that Kessell is not getting traded for nothing, as Watters suggests, but that it might be a buyers market, nonetheless. Gelinas and a second, probably won't work either. But if it's next year's first, and one of the defenseman who might be a second pairing type for a 27 year old ppg or close to that type player, that's not something you can dismiss out of hand, even with the contract. Even in the worst case scenario it can't be as bad as what happened to Montreal with Gomez, and they recovered decently enough.

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I don't have to know whether or not he is declining.  It is in the nature of things that the average scoring forwards' peak is earlier than 27.  He may buck the trend, but you lose a whole lot more than you win when you bet against probability.  Sure, he could be one of the very few who suffer little decline through age 35, but I'm not counting on that, and it's a fool who does.

 

I'm not worried about the cap.  What I'm worried about is that the Devils, a team which really has nothing going for it at forward, tries to make a big move to make that happen.  In doing so, they're going to have to give up assets, and they don't have many assets.  They can't bet big and get it wrong, because if they do, they're really in for it - they could be in for a decade-long slump.  In fact, it can be argued that Toronto's acquisition of Phil Kessel in the first place worked out this way - they wagered big that their team was going to be good, and it was not, and they lost two top ten picks because of it; even with the huge steal that was JVR for Schenn, they're still looking like a franchise headed neither up nor down.  To me if NJ got Kessel it would be exactly this sort of move - it makes the Devils better in the near-term, but by the time whoever they draft this year is hopefully ready to be a good NHLer, Kessel will be 29 and probably on the unhappy end of his career.  The Devils need to wait - at least a year, and probably 2 or 3, before they can start to think about a move like this.  And indeed, they should think about a move like this then, if things go right.  But for now, they've got to regroup - they can't lose on purpose, because they have too many good young players, but they shouldn't be selling out the future at all - every move should be made with 2017-18 in mind.

Edited January 23, 2015 by Triumph

[HellOnICE]

It's hard for me to NOT want to make a Kessel move. I get that it makes sense to wait. I guess these kinds of moves aren't made until the summer anyway, generally. I guess I make the move if we win the Connor lottery. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Though sometimes it can feel like Tri's posts all amount to some form of "No move is worth making because no one is any good", I can understand where he's coming from on this one, based on where the Devils currently are, how long it will be before they're really ready to contend again, and what kind of player Kessel will be at that time.

 

If the Devils were absolutely overloaded with prospects, or on the cusp of winning a Cup or looking like they have a 2-3 year window to win, then you can make an argument to go for it (though that contract is still scary...you're really banking heavily on Kessel not losing his scoring touch).  But we know the Devils have very little in the way of assets at the moment (and Tri is also right in that the Devils aren't as stacked with young defensive depth as we though...the group as a whole is more of a question mark now, though I remain hopeful).

 

Basically, I think if the Devils somehow got Kessel now, he'd become a "reason to watch the individual leaderboard" player for them.  The team still wouldn't be terribly good and still wouldn't be playoff-bound, but we could look at the scoring leaders and say "Hey look!  Kessel's about to crack the Top 10 goal-scoring list this season!  And Schneider's about to do the same in save%!" 

 

BTW, in case anyone might be wondering why/how Kessel could be available...in his last 9 GP, he has one goal and one assist and is a -10.  Not saying anyone should base anything too heavily on a 9-game sample, or even those stats (we all know about shooting luck, etc), but considering that Toronto simply hasn't been very good lately, they're at least open to the idea of moving a guy who originally was going to be a part of their long-term picture, as long as they're not getting fleeced. 

[SterioDesign]

i mean, the leafs have a similar, same or better overall team than us, they have Kessel now... and well you see how they are doing now. So im pretty sure it would be the same thing really.

 

BUT Kessel have one ability that no Devils players have, he can score goals by himself off the rush, so technically that's "another type" of goal we could be scoring and could be a difference maker in NOT blowing a late lead of have to go to OT. We have absolutely no players who can do it.

 

But i agree that getting him now in his prime wouldnt help much considering were not close to have a contending team.

Edited January 23, 2015 by SterioDesign

[Daniel]

Though sometimes it can feel like Tri's posts all amount to some form of "No move is worth making because no one is any good", I can understand where he's coming from on this one, based on where the Devils currently are, how long it will be before they're really ready to contend again, and what kind of player Kessel will be at that time.

 

If the Devils were absolutely overloaded with prospects, or on the cusp of winning a Cup or looking like they have a 2-3 year window to win, then you can make an argument to go for it (though that contract is still scary...you're really banking heavily on Kessel not losing his scoring touch).  But we know the Devils have very little in the way of assets at the moment (and Tri is also right in that the Devils aren't as stacked with young defensive depth as we though...the group as a whole is more of a question mark now, though I remain hopeful).

 

Basically, I think if the Devils somehow got Kessel now, he'd become a "reason to watch the individual leaderboard" player for them.  The team still wouldn't be terribly good and still wouldn't be playoff-bound, but we could look at the scoring leaders and say "Hey look!  Kessel's about to crack the Top 10 goal-scoring list this season!  And Schneider's about to do the same in save%!" 

 

BTW, in case anyone might be wondering why/how Kessel could be available...in his last 9 GP, he has one goal and one assist and is a -10.  Not saying anyone should base anything too heavily on a 9-game sample, or even those stats (we all know about shooting luck, etc), but considering that Toronto simply hasn't been very good lately, they're at least open to the idea of moving a guy who originally was going to be a part of their long-term picture, as long as they're not getting fleeced. 

 

The premise that I was going on, and which I wanted people's opinion on as to whether it was realistic, was whether the Devils could get Kessel on the relative cheap.  Looking at things from afar, the atmosphere in Toronto seems pretty toxic, which might be a situation that the Devils can take advantage of, no matter how Spock-like the new Leafs brain trust perceives themselves to be. 

 

So as I was saying, barring some historic turn around, this year's first rounder is off-limits, as well as a defenseman like Severson who has a realistic shot at being a first pairing defenseman.  But, are we willing to roll the dice and say we might be a playoff team next year -- with a player like Kessell -- and part with that first rounder before we know for sure, or, say, that defensemen like Merrill or Larsson are what they are at this point.  

Edited January 23, 2015 by Daniel

[William D'Aquila]

LOLOLOLOL.

Where's that "this ain't madden" pic?

 

Do i need to remind you of the Kovy trade. Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, 1st, and 2nd round pick for Kovy, Ansi, and their second. 

[Marshall]

Do i need to remind you of the Kovy trade. Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, 1st, and 2nd round pick for Kovy, Ansi, and their second. 

 

There's a huge difference in trading a guy who is a pending UFA vs a guy who is locked in for years to come. Plus, at the time, Bergfors was averaging half a point in his rookie year, Cormier was...well, regarded in some ways and Oduya was (and is) an OK d-man. 

[William D'Aquila]

There's a huge difference in trading a guy who is a pending UFA vs a guy who is locked in for years to come. Plus, at the time, Bergfors was averaging half a point in his rookie year, Cormier was...well, regarded in some ways and Oduya was (and is) an OK d-man. 

 

That wasn't the point of his post.

 

Forum user mook belittled the idea that big trades involving a large amount of players do not occur.

[Triumph]

Do i need to remind you of the Kovy trade. Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, 1st, and 2nd round pick for Kovy, Ansi, and their second. 

 

The Devils had a situation where they could make that trade.  They don't have that situation now.

[William D'Aquila]

The Devils had a situation where they could make that trade.  They don't have that situation now.

 

At the time of the trade maybe, but even that is debatable.  Devils lost a top 4 defenseman and replaced him with a fringe NHLer, Bergfors is replaced by Kovalchuk, and Cormier is replaced by nothing. The Devils might have had more depth in their system then vs now when it comes to forwards, but it isn't overwhelming. Josefson was projected to be a solid two way center, whilst Teddy was projected to be a top 6 forward. By comparison, Quenneville is projected to be a solid two way center, whilst Matteau is projected to be a top 9 forward. 

 

No one had any expectations that Adam Henrique, would become the player he has, but if you want to factor him into the discussion it does enhance your position further. Top to bottom the Devils farm system is much stronger now then it was in 2010. 

[SterioDesign]

At the time of the trade maybe, but even that is debatable.  Devils lost a top 4 defenseman and replaced him with a fringe NHLer, Bergfors is replaced by Kovalchuk, and Cormier is replaced by nothing. The Devils might have had more depth in their system then vs now when it comes to forwards, but it isn't overwhelming. Josefson was projected to be a solid two way center, whilst Teddy was projected to be a top 6 forward. By comparison, Quenneville is projected to be a solid two way center, whilst Matteau is projected to be a top 9 forward. 

 

No one had any expectations that Adam Henrique, would become the player he has, but if you want to factor him into the discussion it does enhance your position further. Top to bottom the Devils farm system is much stronger now then it was in 2010. 

 

the farm maybe but the NHL roster is a joke compared to what we had back then so were not in better shape

[Neb00rs]

Do i need to remind you of the Kovy trade. Oduya, Bergfors, Cormier, 1st, and 2nd round pick for Kovy, Ansi, and their second. 

 

William I am really starting to appreciate some of your posts on this board. That said, your trade proposal is ridiculous. I even thought it was a joke at first.

[ATLL765]

William I am really starting to appreciate some of your posts on this board. That said, your trade proposal is ridiculous. I even thought it was a joke at first.

Yeah, it's a classic quantity for quality trade. Ryder is near worthless and Gelinas, Boucher and our 2016 1st isn't enough to get Kessel. It's maybe close, but it would need to be something more like Larsson/Merrill, Boucher, 2016 1st and 2015 2nd for Kessel. Even then that probably isn't enough to do it.

 

And the Kovy trade isn't really comparable to what would need to be done for Kessel. Kovy was a pending UFA that made it clear he was not going to re-sign and even then you could make the argument that Atlanta should have gotten more for Kovy, but even with that in mind, Oduya was a top 4 defenseman that had a career year the previous season with 29 points, Bergfors was amongst the top scoring rookies in the league at that time and Cormier was seen as a high quality prospect despite the head hit controversy that year.