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Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios For The Rest Of 2014-15


Triumph

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Was interesting though that per an ESPN insider article, a few anonomys GMs or front office types said that Zidlicky is a more valuable trade chip than Jagr.

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I would agree with this.  For all of his stupid penalties and defensive brain farts, Zidlicky brings a skill set in the offensive zone that is tough to find.   There are a lot of top teams would like to add that to their roster, especially on an expiring contract. 

 

IMO, the Devils don't get anywhere near the finals in 2012 if Lou doesn't make that trade for Zid. 

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You can win in overtime without scoring? That's news to me.

I agree there's no reason they can't win shootouts. That doesn't explain why they rarely do.

 

We rarely win shootouts because it is purely a skills competition, and our players have no skill. 

 

Not too long ago we had a good run in the shootout, but that was with Kovy and his lazer 5-hole wrist shot hitting leadoff, Zach and his wicked backhand in the 2 hole, and Elias waiting to go third, which we almost never got to because Kovy and Zach almost always scored and it was over before our 3rd shooter could go.  IMO, this team has nobody near that top end skill, and that's why we struggle with the shootout nowadays.

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We rarely win shootouts because it is purely a skills competition, and our players have no skill. 

 

Not too long ago we had a good run in the shootout, but that was with Kovy and his lazer 5-hole wrist shot hitting leadoff, Zach and his wicked backhand in the 2 hole, and Elias waiting to go third, which we almost never got to because Kovy and Zach almost always scored and it was over before our 3rd shooter could go.  IMO, this team has nobody near that top end skill, and that's why we struggle with the shootout nowadays.

 

Agreed, that was part of my point. Getting to overtime doesn't help this team, unless we are stealing 1 point where there should have been zero. We rarely get the two points. 

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Both of these things aren't true, but whatever.  There's no reason why the Devils can't start winning shootouts.  They've already won 2 this year.

 

How can you win in overtime without scoring? Never saw it happen in my whole life.

 

And there's reasons we cannot win shootouts. It's a skills competition. We don't have enough skills. Its no luck that we were winning all the time with kovy and zach. And its no luck that the Blackhawks are doing really good with kane and toews.

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How can you win in overtime without scoring? Never saw it happen in my whole life.

 

And there's reasons we cannot win shootouts. It's a skills competition. We don't have enough skills. Its no luck that we were winning all the time with kovy and zach. And its no luck that the Blackhawks are doing really good with kane and toews.

Jay Beagle, Ryan Clowe, Tyler Bozak and David Bolland are very good at the shootout. None of these guys would you describe as having a bevy of skill. The shootout is pretty random as results don't often carry over from year to year

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And there's reasons we cannot win shootouts. It's a skills competition. We don't have enough skills. Its no luck that we were winning all the time with kovy and zach. And its no luck that the Blackhawks are doing really good with kane and toews.

 

 

Devils were also winning shootouts at a good rate prior to Kovy's arrival.  Kovy wasn't particularly good in shootouts as a Thrasher. 

 

2011-12 was absurd...Kovy (11-for-14), Parise (8-for-16), and Elias (6-for-12), who took 42 of the Devils' 49 shot attempts that season, went a combined 25-for-42 that year (59.5%).  The following season, Kovy went 2-for-6 and Elias went 2-for-8 (Parise went 3-for-6 with the Wild)...that's a combined 35%.  It was a shortened season obviously, but it stands to reason when your three main shooters are all shooting 50%+ in any given season (one of which was near 80%), that's going to lead to a lot of shootout wins.   Also stands to reason that even with good shootout performers, there's still going to be fluctuation from year to year.  Brodeur (.731) and Hedberg (.650) also combined for a .696 shootout save% in that 2011-12 season, which isn't spectacular, but is definitely good...that didn't hurt.    

 

Yes, Parise (and Elias) being good at them from the get-go helped immensely (guys like Kozlov helped too, and Brodeur was well-above average in them until his last couple of seasons), but again, what makes the shootout frustrating is what SMantzas alludes to...there's not that much rhyme or reason as to who excels in them and who doesn't.  Skill guys don't necessarily light it up in shootouts, and vice-versa (think TJ Oshie-types).  You hope that you have skill guys who happen to be good in shootouts as well (including your goalie...MAF is a beast in these).  Detroit has had plenty of skill players...they're 44-57 all-time in shootouts.   

 

Anyway, yeah, Devils are still a bit screwed from a shootout standpoint in 2014-15, because they don't have any big shootout performers right now...including the goalie.  Marty was at .719 for his career before his big 2012-13/2013-14 dropoff.  Schneider is at .600.  Not many extra points coming from shootouts this season.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Both of these things aren't true, but whatever.  There's no reason why the Devils can't start winning shootouts.  They've already won 2 this year.

And have lost like 6. They will never win shootouts consistently with the team as currently constructed. First off nomatter how good Schneider is in the actual games he is a terrible shootout goalie, and guys like Zajac and Henrique are not going to just overnight remember how to score 1 on 1. Neither have scored shootout goals in years.

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And have lost like 6. They will never win shootouts consistently with the team as currently constructed. First off nomatter how good Schneider is in the actual games he is a terrible shootout goalie, and guys like Zajac and Henrique are not going to just overnight remember how to score 1 on 1. Neither have scored shootout goals in years.

 

Zajac scored one in pre-season.  Schneider hasn't faced enough shootouts to conclude whether he is or is not a good shootout goalie although it doesn't look promising.  The idea that they will 'never' win shootouts consistently with the team as constructed is ignoring the role of chance in shootouts.  They shouldn't win shootouts consistently, but they very well may do so.

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are you guys SERIOUSLY trying to say we have guys good at shootouts and that we should be winning? like seriously? 

 

Who is saying the above?  NO ONE.  Tri just posted that the Devils could start winning shootouts consistently, but that they shouldn't.  I said they're screwed for this season from a shootout standpoint.  SMantzas mentioned that Clowe happens to be good at them (though that doesn't help much right now).   

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Go 15-2-3 in the next 20 games and I'll believe we're going somewhere...

 

..we may not even need to win that many games, the way the rest of the East is playing. If we can feasibly go 12-4-4 over the next 20.. that would leave us @ 65 points, with 20 games still left to play.

 

Let's see what we can accomplish with the 8 remaining games left in January, before we even talk about what needs to be done in February. A victory tonight puts us 7 points back from the final wildcard spot. If the Devils can roll into this weekend with 3 points of a possible 4.. then I think going on a run is completely in the realm of being viable.

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I really hope we can draft top 6. If we don't end up winning the McDavid lottery I'm sure we'd get Marner, Strome, or Zacha. A lot can change by the draft but these guys are all looking good.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/117247/2015-nhl-draft-mcdavid-strome-highlight-potentially-strong-group-ohl/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2015-nhl-draft-mcdavid-strome-highlight-potentially-strong-group-ohl

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I really hope we can draft top 6. If we don't end up winning the McDavid lottery I'm sure we'd get Marner, Strome, or Zacha. A lot can change by the draft but these guys are all looking good.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/117247/2015-nhl-draft-mcdavid-strome-highlight-potentially-strong-group-ohl/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=2015-nhl-draft-mcdavid-strome-highlight-potentially-strong-group-ohl

I'm a little wary of Zacha. He's not played much this year and his numbers aren't nearly as good as some others ranked near him. I get that he may be adjusting to the NA game still, but I'd rather we draft someone who's shown more offense than he has if we're picking in the top 5. I want us to avoid Crouse for the same reason.

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You post a lot of new topics and I usually completely disagree but don't have the energy to sit here and argue. So I just hit the X in the top right and go on with my day.

But I almost had a brain aneurysm when i read this. To say the devils aren't that bad of a team is absolutely INSANE. If they're not the worst team in the league this year they aren't far off. They have ZERO offensive talent outside of Cam and Jagr. None under 25. They have no top talent in the pipeline. Our best player is a 32 year old defenseman. Our goalie is good at best. Not great, but good. What's the bright spot of the team going forward? Merrill, Larsson, Severson, and Gelinas when he learns how to play the position. Santini maybe? Boucher? This team has the bleakest outlook in the league for the next 3 years. No doubt. And that's okay. It sucks. But its okay, it happens. But for the love of god stop fooling yourself by saying this team isn't outright bad.

And then to say they're starting to turn things around? Its the same awful team now as it was with Deboer. They beat 2 bad teams. A blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. This team couldnt make the playoffs if they played every team 5 on 4 the rest of the season. You have to learn to be realistic while being a sports fan. Yes you want your team to not be atrocious, but hey, it happens sometimes.

I know everyone wants to have pride and not be the laughing stock of the league, but the absolute best thing that can happen to this team is to stay this terrible all year and get a top 3 pick. And if there is a heavenly body up there, the first overall pick. Yeah everyone's friends who are Ranger fans will bust your balls everyday, but you sit there, be an adult, take it like a man and realize that you're the fan of a team that needs a major rebuild and go on with your day.

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I'm a little wary of Zacha. He's not played much this year and his numbers aren't nearly as good as some others ranked near him. I get that he may be adjusting to the NA game still, but I'd rather we draft someone who's shown more offense than he has if we're picking in the top 5. I want us to avoid Crouse for the same reason.

Yeah I'd rather we go for Marner or Strome. I like Zacha's size and I'm a little weary of Marner's size. 5-11/160 (Marner) is pretty small but I like his offense. He's young though and has time to bulk up. Strome would be really nice too.

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The real worst case scenario is finishing with the second-worst record and having the Flyers jump us by winning the lottery and push us out of the top two.

 

Honestly it wouldn't shock me if we did finish with the #5 or #6 pick while someone who finished better than us in the standings wins the lottery, it happens all the time in the NBA.  Either way I can't get wrapped up in the difference between 3-14.  And they're not going to be bad enough to finish bottom two.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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The real worst case scenario is finishing with the second-worst record and having the Flyers jump us by winning the lottery and push us out of the top two.

Honestly it wouldn't shock me if we did finish with the #5 or #6 pick while someone who finished better than us in the standings wins the lottery, it happens all the time in the NBA. Either way I can't get wrapped up in the difference between 3-14. And they're not going to be bad enough to finish bottom two.

The interesting thing is that if there's any team that would be really well served to end up with one of the top defenseman in this draft it would be the Flyers.

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The real worst case scenario is finishing with the second-worst record and having the Flyers jump us by winning the lottery and push us out of the top two.

 

Honestly it wouldn't shock me if we did finish with the #5 or #6 pick while someone who finished better than us in the standings wins the lottery, it happens all the time in the NBA.  Either way I can't get wrapped up in the difference between 3-14.  And they're not going to be bad enough to finish bottom two.

 

The odds of this happening are not particularly high (but not particularly low either).  29% it happens if they're picking at #6, 36% if they are picking at #5.  I kinda don't like that they revised the odds upwards for the teams below 10 but so it goes.

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We have to move ahead, no one is scoring now...

 

so you'd stick with the same guys & hope for different results ?

"I don't care where we finish this year, or where we pick." 

I was responding to that statement, I do care where we pick, I want it as high as possible at any cost

everything else Im in full agreement, slash and gash lou!

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Realistically I don't believe that we'll end up in the bottom 2 position BUT do you think that say a team like Edmonton ended up there ... they would be willing to trade the first pick to us if we offered Severson and our 1st ... say we finished 5th or 6th.

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