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Devils Trade Deadline Thread


Derlique

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Semin has what 4 years left? Ehhhh yeah I guess...only if they pick up half, which I can't see them doing. They'd rather take their chances making him so miserable he goes to Russia and they can suspend him. 

He's got 3 left after this year. I'd take him at anything under $5M. Even last season he still had 42 points in 65 games. The only truly concerning thing is that his shot output has gone from 3+ per game to just over 1 shot per game. He had 210 in 65 games last year. He has 41 in 34 this year.

His GF% is 43.6% as opposed to 53.7% last year. That coupled with the the save percentage when he's on the ice dropping to .884 from .928 last year doesn't help him look any better.

However, his FF% is right in line with what it has been in the past at 54.3%.

Edited by ATLL765
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Based on what?

 

Well hell Neb00rs if some of these guys  are that intent on bringing in older over priced guys who's careers have reached new depths I'm sure Vinny Lecavalier is available too.

 

 

there's gotta be a stat somewhere that shows he doesn't suck all that bad all the time.

Edited by titans04
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Honestly, trading Jagr at this point won't affect this team winning or not. He has noticeably slowed down and hasn't done much. I hope Lou reliazes that. Elias has looked a lot better recently than he was at the beginning of the season.

 

My biggest fear may be realized, that other teams have figured that out and no one's interested in Jagr. What does Lou even do at this point if the offers are only 3rd-4th round picks for a guy like Jagr? I guess we'll never know.

 

If the rumor is true (I forgot where I read it, might've been a Canadian channel), that Jagr told Lou he'd be open for a trade back in December/January, but Lou insisted on waiting because we were still in a playoff hunt; then I'll really be pissed.

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Goalies are part of a team. But remove Price from Montreal and...yeah, it'd be ugly.

 

Sorry, but I really don't buy this.  At worst, they're still a top-8 team in the East.  I hate the Habs and their fans as much as the next guy (well, maybe not as much as SD) but I'd take that roster over this one any day of the week.  They have top, young talent at each position.

 

The definitive statement that the number one team in the East is "slightly" better than this bottom-feeder Devils team because of their goalie is absolutely absurd, even by Triumph's standards.  It hurts a person's credibility when they say things like this.

 

He's got 3 left after this year. I'd take him at anything under $5M. Even last season he still had 42 points in 65 games. The only truly concerning thing is that his shot output has gone from 3+ per game to just over 1 shot per game. He had 210 in 65 games last year. He has 41 in 34 this year.

His GF% is 43.6% as opposed to 53.7% last year. That coupled with the the save percentage when he's on the ice dropping to .884 from .928 last year doesn't help him look any better.

However, his FF% is right in line with what it has been in the past at 54.3%.

 

I don't follow advanced statistics, but I'd be curious to know how much Semin "drives play". 

 

Because, to be honest, he looks like a slightly better and slightly younger Micheal Ryder.  A streaky scorer that needs to have a creative center on his line to be effective.  Put Semin on a line with Zajac or.. uh.. whoever else we have playing center at the moment and I wonder if he'd disappear as Ryder has.

 

We're just about to rid ourselves of that useless entity that is Micheal Ryder.. I'd hate to get stuck with another guy like him for three more years.  

 

Then again, the Devils need scoring in the worst way possible.  Meh.

Edited by Devilsfan118
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My biggest fear may be realized, that other teams have figured that out and no one's interested in Jagr. What does Lou even do at this point if the offers are only 3rd-4th round picks for a guy like Jagr? I guess we'll never know.

If the rumor is true (I forgot where I read it, might've been a Canadian channel), that Jagr told Lou he'd be open for a trade back in December/January, but Lou insisted on waiting because we were still in a playoff hunt; then I'll really be pissed.

Well nobody makes trades then, everyone waits till a couple weeks before the deadline. And the Flyers were in the same hole as us in early January, even behind us but now they're more in the race than us.

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My biggest fear may be realized, that other teams have figured that out and no one's interested in Jagr. What does Lou even do at this point if the offers are only 3rd-4th round picks for a guy like Jagr? I guess we'll never know.

 

If the rumor is true (I forgot where I read it, might've been a Canadian channel), that Jagr told Lou he'd be open for a trade back in December/January, but Lou insisted on waiting because we were still in a playoff hunt; then I'll really be pissed.

 

Just another thing Lou would have cost the team because of his stubbornness and denial about the team chances. Nothing new there really.

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Sorry, but I really don't buy this.  At worst, they're still a top-8 team in the East.  I hate the Habs and their fans as much as the next guy (well, maybe not as much as SD) but I'd take that roster over this one any day of the week.  They have top, young talent at each position.

 

The definitive statement that the number one team in the East is "slightly" better than this bottom-feeder Devils team because of their goalie is absolutely absurd, even by Triumph's standards.  It hurts a person's credibility when they say things like this.

 

They're not very good.  I should've actually looked at the numbers before I opened my mouth - I follow 2 people on Twitter who are really negative about Montreal in general, so I thought they were around 46% possesion - I think they may have been earlier in the year - but even so they're a 49% territorial team.  They are getting incredible goaltending.  With average goaltending, they're an NHL .500 team and on the playoff cusp.  I would obviously take their roster over ours and wasn't suggesting otherwise.  But they're really not playing that well, and certainly not like a 1st place team.  The goalie is basically most of the reason for their success this year.

 

I don't follow advanced statistics, but I'd be curious to know how much Semin "drives play". 

 

Because, to be honest, he looks like a slightly better and slightly younger Micheal Ryder.  A streaky scorer that needs to have a creative center on his line to be effective.  Put Semin on a line with Zajac or.. uh.. whoever else we have playing center at the moment and I wonder if he'd disappear as Ryder has.

 

We're just about to rid ourselves of that useless entity that is Micheal Ryder.. I'd hate to get stuck with another guy like him for three more years.  

 

Then again, the Devils need scoring in the worst way possible.  Meh.

 

This is why the stats are good, because he might look that way, but he isn't.  He's been a very good defensive player his whole career.  The one negative is that he takes too many penalties so a lot of that value is canceled out, but a lot of those penalties are in order to regain the puck, so he's like Jagr in that sense.  That said, he really is having an awful year by all measures, so I'd be really wary of taking a chance on him, but he was a very underrated player once upon a time.

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A. Semin might have a good take away ratio. But that means pretty little when you have played 34 games and also have the highest giveaway rate of any forward on the team.

 

B. GVA/TKA are not advanced stats.

 

C. Corsi tells little about Semin. The guy starts in the offensive zone 40% of the time and he is still struggling to score big time. He is performing decently as far as 'driving play goes' but a lot of forwards on that team are performing even better.

 

2 goals in fvcking 34 games when he is being dropped into the offensive zone.

Edited by Neb00rs
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A. Semin might have a good take away ratio. But that means pretty little when you have played 34 games and also have the highest giveaway rate of any forward on the team.

 

B. GVA/TKA are not advanced stats.

 

C. Corsi tells little about Semin. The guy starts in the offensive zone 40% of the time and he is still struggling to score big time. He is performing decently as far as 'driving play goes' but a lot of forwards on that team are performing even better.

 

2 goals in fvcking 34 games when he is being dropped into the offensive zone.

 

The expected impact from his offensive zone starts is ~ 4 goals. And that is on ice, not him personally. 

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The expected impact from his offensive zone starts is ~ 4 goals. And that is on ice, not him personally. 

 

Based on what adjustment? -10 seconds used by puckalytics?

 

Anyway, the basic point stands: Semin's stats this year are terrible.

Edited by Neb00rs
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Based on what adjustment? Please don't tel me the -10 seconds used by puckalytics.

 

No adjustment, my own manual game tracking. Your average faceoff is worth around half a shot attempt. Obviously the rest is quite crude (assuming averages for FO%, how many attempts that go on goal etc) but zone starts don't have a huge effect on possession.

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No adjustment, my own manual game tracking. Your average faceoff is worth around half a shot attempt. Obviously the rest is quite crude (assuming averages for FO%, how many attempts that go on goal etc) but zone starts don't have a huge effect on possession.

 

I can appreciate someone using their own game stats. And zone starts indeed do not have a huge possessional effect BUT...

 

Player zone starts do have at least some correlation with player shot attempts (though some statisticians have argued for a marginal correlation over the past few years) and CF% is what everybody lauds Semin for. But here's the thing, I am not hating on Semin for having a high OFZO% and low a point total. I am hating on him for having a low point total AND along with that having a high OFZO% and a pretty low DFZO%. In other words, I am not saying that the zone starts are a HUGE part of his shot attempts, I am simply saying that they only hurt the fact that he has 2 goals even more. If he wasn't protected pre-faceoff, at least he'd be able to say hey, "I have been put in hard situations."  Btw, Carolina has the 6th best FO% in the league. Which means that Carolina isn't exactly losing control of the puck on FOs more often than other teams in the offensive zone, and Semin has still only scored twice in 34 games. And while, yes, players don't usually score off of faceoff-won possession, it's still just bad. Furthermore, I am not denying the defensive skill he has, but it really is only marginal in effect when you consider his turnovers.

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I can appreciate someone using their own game stats. And zone starts indeed do not have a huge possessional effect BUT...

Player zone starts do have at least some correlation with player shot attempts (though some statisticians have argued for a marginal correlation over the past few years) and CF% is what everybody lauds Semin for. But here's the thing, I am not hating on Semin for having a high OFZO% and low a point total. I am hating on him for having a low point total AND along with that having a high OFZO% and a pretty low DFZO%. In other words, I am not saying that the zone starts are a HUGE part of his shot attempts, I am simply saying that they only hurt the fact that he has 2 goals even more. If he wasn't protected pre-faceoff, at least he'd be able to say hey, "I have been put in hard situations." Btw, Carolina has the 6th best FO% in the league. Which means that Carolina isn't exactly losing control of the puck on FOs more often than other teams in the offensive zone, and Semin has still only scored twice in 34 games. And while, yes, players don't usually score off of faceoff-won possession, it's still just bad. Furthermore, I am not denying the defensive skill he has, but it really is only marginal in effect when you consider his turnovers.

No one's gonna argue that he's having a good year, it's just that seemingly overnight his shot rate plummeted even though his FF%...er sorry, his USAT%? similar to what it has been the rest of his career.

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If Ryder and Jagr are on their way out, I wouldn't mind Semin on the Devils. He may be a good fit for a third line with Josefson and Ruutu.

 

Salary would have to be retained of course, though.

 

The only teams that would want Jagr and /or Ryder are playoff bound or playoff bubble teams needing a short term boost. Unfortunately Carolina is not one of those teams.

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