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Larsson blossoming


William D'Aquila
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Possibly true. But I am not going to look it up because it doesn't matter. He's making better breakout/first passes lately and whether the shooting % is high or not is irrelevant to that. If you pass better, you will contribute more offense. You are making a fallacious argument when you say "Well, the points he has had off of his passing lately are due to shooting % increase". That is a non-sequitur. Again, better passing will lead to more offense. It doesn't matter why he got a point on goal A, B, or C.

 

His outless passes won't drive the on ice sh% above an average level. He is not Sidney Crosby. 

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His outless passes won't drive the on ice sh% above an average level. He is not Sidney Crosby. 

 

You are missing what I am saying. By your logic, there is no benefit to passing well because if you are not Crosby then you can't increase TMOIshooting%. Larsson passing more fluidly and with more confidence out of the defensive zone = good = more offense. Larsson is also going to play much more next year over the whole season. There is a direct correlation between his increased ice time (16:30 ES mins for the year/20-2 ES mins/g lately) and his in increase points. But I digress: it does not matter what the Devils on-ice shooting% is. He is passing better. That will lead to goals. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year. And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

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You are missing what I am saying. By your logic, there is no benefit to passing well because if you are not Crosby then you can't increase TMOIshooting%. Larsson passing more fluidly and with more confidence out of the defensive zone = good = more offense. Larsson is also going to play much more next year over the whole season. There is a direct correlation between his increased ice time (16:30 ES mins for the year/20-2 ES mins/g lately) and his in increase points. But I digress: it does not matter what the Devils on-ice shooting% is. He is passing better. That will lead to goals. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year. And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

It's not that his outlet passes and passing skill in general won't generate offense. It's that goals aren't scored very often after 1 or 2 passes out of the defensive zone, especially so with this team where scoring off the rush is an extremely rare event. So that skill isn't likely to generate a ton of assists, secondary or otherwise. Due to this, I feel like it's still not likely he'll ever become a truly elite offensive force that consistently produces 40+ point seasons.

 

His outlet passes are definitely a + or even ++ skill, but that's not enough in my opinion to create that kind of offense unless his play on the PP improves dramatically since that's the only way I think he'll have those 40+ point seasons. However, with Severson, Merrill and Gelinas all seemingly trusted more than Larsson as an option for PP QB, it's unlikely that Larsson will ever be a top option on the 1st PP unit. He's improved to the point where he'll probably start getting some PP time on the 2nd unit once Severson comes back, but that's not going to be enough to push his point totals all that much higher.

Edited by ATLL765
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You are missing what I am saying. By your logic, there is no benefit to passing well because if you are not Crosby then you can't increase TMOIshooting%. Larsson passing more fluidly and with more confidence out of the defensive zone = good = more offense. Larsson is also going to play much more next year over the whole season. There is a direct correlation between his increased ice time (16:30 ES mins for the year/20-2 ES mins/g lately) and his in increase points. But I digress: it does not matter what the Devils on-ice shooting% is. He is passing better. That will lead to goals. Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year. And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

 

*sigh*

 

Well, I guess you're the expert then. 

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Even if  OI shooting% mattered here, you are making the same mistake that a lot of advanced stats people casually make (aside from the real expert guys): anything you think is a 'fluke' or luck 'this year' is just as likely to happen next year.

 

Totally missed this the first time I read your post.

So since it was extremely unlikely that his career 41.3% secondary assist rate at ES would be about the same every year outside of last season in the first place, it means it's still extremely unlikely to be just as high once again next year.

This is not the equivalent of the 50/50 chance on any given coin flip, but more like how if you won 5 times in a row on the first 5 scratch off lottery tickets you ever buy, it wouldn't mean you're likely to win on the next one.

 

And that is because what you like to call 'luck' is not a random event, but mathematics evening themselves out.

On this: If it was a skill, you'd be able to consistently do better than the average rather than it being mathematics evening out since that would instead be the very definition of a random event in hockey.

Edited by ATLL765
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*sigh*

 

Well, I guess you're the expert then. 

 

You know this really isn't a good way to argue. If I don't just take your 'expertise' lying down, then you respond with this immature comment accusing me of doing what you are doing and leave the conversation. Fine. Your choice.

 

It's not that his outlet passes and passing skill in general won't generate offense. It's that goals aren't scored very often after 1 or 2 passes out of the defensive zone, especially so with this team where scoring off the rush is an extremely rare event. So that skill isn't likely to generate a ton of assists, secondary or otherwise. Due to this, I feel like it's still not likely he'll ever become a truly elite offensive force that consistently produces 40+ point seasons.

 

His outlet passes are definitely a + or even ++ skill, but that's not enough in my opinion to create that kind of offense unless his play on the PP improves dramatically since that's the only way I think he'll have those 40+ point seasons. However, with Severson, Merrill and Gelinas all seemingly trusted more than Larsson as an option for PP QB, it's unlikely that Larsson will ever be a top option on the 1st PP unit. He's improved to the point where he'll probably start getting some PP time on the 2nd unit once Severson comes back, but that's not going to be enough to push his point totals all that much higher.

 

Basically what you say in the first part is that this current Devils team doesn't score and so Larsson's improved passing won't generate any more points. I agree, if this team is the same team we have for the next 10 seasons, Larsson's ES points will never exceed 20/season. Your second point, well...no one here said he'd become an elite offensive talent, so not sure about what you are saying. Who said he'd be pushing 40+ points?

Edited by Neb00rs
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Basically what you say in the first part is that this current Devils team doesn't score and so Larsson's improved passing won't generate any more points. I agree, if this team is the same team we have for the next 10 seasons, Larsson's ES points will never exceed 20/season. Your second point, well...no one here said he'd become an elite offensive talent, so not sure about what you are saying. Who said he'd be pushing 40+ points?

First of all, I'm not saying that Larsson's improved passing won't generate anymore points JUST because the current team is offensively starved. I'm saying that he creates his offense via his skill in making the first pass out of the defensive zone and that specific skill is not one that where the offense generated from it will be given credit with an assist. I say this because:

A - Throughout the NHL, the first pass out of the defensive zone does not frequently generate a goal where only 1 other pass was made before it was scored because the only way for that to occur is if the goal scored, is scored off the rush. Once a team starts to cycle in the offensive zone, 99% of the time there has been at least 2 passes made after the one a defenseman had made in order to vacate their defensive zone.

and

B - That this current Devils team does not score off the rush very often, so since that is a very rare occurrence, Larsson's outlet passes are EVEN LESS likely to end up on the stat sheet as an assist than if he were to be playing for another NHL team.

As for never topping 20 ES points even if the team sucks, I think he's a bit better than that already. All but 2 of his points have come at ES this season, with the only 2 points not at ES being assists on empty net goals, but of those 16 ES points he has, 12 of them have come in the last 22 games and only 4 of them coming in the 22 games prior to that. 7 of his 14 assists are secondary, so it's impossible to say that he'll have just as many assists next year, but even still, 6 of his primary assists have come in the last 22 games, so prior to that, he only had 1 primary assist. If his primary assist and goals per game at ES continue, he should produce at minimum 20 ES points per season.

However, I think he's progressed quite a bit this year and will continue to do so a bit more next season. Even if his secondary assist rate finally regresses next year, I think that with the way he's produced just over .25 primary assists per game in the last 22 GP, he could still put up 20 primary assists alone. With that, I think ~25-30 ES points will definitely be within reach for him next season. 

Also, you were the one who seemed to disagree with my assessment of Larsson where I said that I didn't believe he'd ever become an elite offensive defenseman who tops ~30 points or so in any one season without ever getting time on the first PP unit. So if you weren't suggesting that he could ever top 40 points, what were you saying? In addition to that, many people were saying at the 2011 draft that he would be an elite defenseman with few, or any, flaws at all.

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As for never topping 20 ES points even if the team sucks, I think he's a bit better than that already. All but 2 of his points have come at ES this season, with the only 2 points not at ES being assists on empty net goals, but of those 16 ES points he has, 12 of them have come in the last 22 games and only 4 of them coming in the 22 games prior to that. 7 of his 14 assists are secondary, so it's impossible to say that he'll have just as many assists next year, but even still, 6 of his primary assists have come in the last 22 games, so prior to that, he only had 1 primary assist. If his primary assist and goals per game at ES continue, he should produce at minimum 20 ES points per season.

However, I think he's progressed quite a bit this year and will continue to do so a bit more next season. Even if his secondary assist rate finally regresses next year, I think that with the way he's produced just over .25 primary assists per game in the last 22 GP, he could still put up 20 primary assists alone. With that, I think ~25-30 ES points will definitely be within reach for him next season

Also, you were the one who seemed to disagree with my assessment of Larsson where I said that I didn't believe he'd ever become an elite offensive defenseman who tops ~30 points or so in any one season without ever getting time on the first PP unit. So if you weren't suggesting that he could ever top 40 points, what were you saying? In addition to that, many people were saying at the 2011 draft that he would be an elite defenseman with few, or any, flaws at all.

 

I don't mean this in ANY sort of flippant way:

 

2nd bolded: Go back and reread the thread, no one ever said anything about him being an 'elite' offensive defensemen. You created that on your own.

 

1st bolded: Again, reread, you just agreed with me.

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