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Forwards for next year


Mike Brown

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Federal or State? Republic or Democratic? House or Senate?

A POS player can be replaced by a POS player through trade. Gionta and Zubrus for example could be replaced by trading for any young player that made it into the NHL last season. Go get Mathis Tedneby he is better than either. Replacing POS isn't that difficult for most GMs just get young ones.

If you throw 100% of $hit on the wall you hope 50% sticks.

 

Now you are just being silly in your quest to take constant jabs at Lou.

 

Replace them with Tedenby?  There is a reason why he is not playing in the NHL right now.  If he is so good then how come 29 other GM's (including GM's on teams in worse shape than the Devils) are not beating down his door to sign him?  He was a bust, plain and simple.  As little as I think Zubrus and Gio are not at this point, they are still better than Tedenby.

 

Also the statement of "Replacing POS isn't that difficult for most GMs just get young ones." is ridiculous.  Edmonton has been replacing players with younger ones, including 3 #1 overalls in a row, for years and how are they doing now?  Yes the Devils have to get younger but that still doesn't guarantee anything.

 

Finally Lou has been throwing sh!t at the wall.  What do you call the signings of Tootoo, Cammy and Gomez?  There has crap in between such as Butler, Sullivan, and others but at this rate I would say Lou has been running at about 50%, just like you say you hope.

 

Just wrap your head around the fact that there are no quick fixes with the issues surrounding this team and that this will be a multi-year process.  I do not expect them to be good next year and even the year after that.  As long as we are heading towards the right direction and start getting building blocks instead of ex-Devils re-treads such as Tedenby and Sullivan and others then we should be in good shape for the future.

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For the remainder of the year, I want the coaching staff to do some experimenting.  Now is the best time to see what we really have in some of these young guys.  Let Josefson get some time in the top 6.  He's too fast and skilled to be stuck on the 4th line.  I think he has 40 point potential, and could possibly be our Frans Nielsen imo.

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Start out by bringing back Mathis Tedneby he is fast and can skate he is offensive better than Gionta and Zubrus. We must rid ourselves of the $hit. Get young players that are just starting through trades how that 50% make it. Do something yo bring some excitement to this $hit show. The current Devils are boring and could be beat by a high school team.

 

You are a lunatic. 

 

If you really believe Stephen Gionta, is the reason the Devils are losing, I question your ability to analyze the sport.

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I'm wondering a couple guys worth pursuing we've all heard in  "rumor mill" (if costs were reasonable);   Mathias (Van)   Belesky (Anaheim)  Purcell (Edm) Condra (Sens) nothing outstanding but better than bringing in Marty St. louis or older goats like him

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For the remainder of the year, I want the coaching staff to do some experimenting.  Now is the best time to see what we really have in some of these young guys.  Let Josefson get some time in the top 6.  He's too fast and skilled to be stuck on the 4th line.  I think he has 40 point potential, and could possibly be our Frans Nielsen imo.

 

This this this this.

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We're not in a big mess. If we get 40 points from Elias next year, I'll be perfectly fine with that.  If you only focus on the top 6 quality, you're gonna overlook the importance of strong 3rd and 4th lines.  A lot of teams don't succeed in the playoffs without a good bottom 6.

 

 

Its great to have a bottom assuming you are a playoff team, you donot make the playoffs w/out a top 6, and right now we have 2 of 6, not good!

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I'm wondering a couple guys worth pursuing we've all heard in "rumor mill" (if costs were reasonable); Mathias (Van) Belesky (Anaheim) Purcell (Edm) Condra (Sens) nothing outstanding but better than bringing in Marty St. louis or older goats like him

I would take a run at Mathias. He's got size and plays C. I don't like the other three at all. We are going to have to trade for at least one decent forward. It's not even a debate there.

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Forum bashes Lou for signing free agents.

 

Forum wants Lou to sign free agents.

 

Frolik, would be a great pick up, otherwise, I don't think it is necessary to go on a big UFA spending spree. 

 

I would rather target players like Semin or Kessel, they have a proven ability to score, and within this environment would probably thrive.

Edited by William D'Aquila
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Here's some interesting data from last year.

 

The top 90 forwards produced at 0.66 points per game or at around 54 points (or greater) over 82 games.  

Forwards ranked 91-180 produced at 0.47 points per game or at around 38 points (or greater) over 82 games.

Forwards ranked 181-270 produced at 0.31 points per game or at around 25 points (or greater) over 82 games.

 

From that data......

 

A 1st line forward is about 50 points or better

A 2nd line forward is about 40 - 49 points.

A 3rd line forward is about 25 - 30 points.

A 4th line forward is about 24 points or fewer.

 

These are all just rough estimates of course.

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  1. Tell Elias he can't win draws to save his life and force him to adapt to yet another new challenge if he wants top 6 minutes: RW

     

  2. Tell Bernier, thanks, but it's time to part ways, despite a strong second half in 2014-2015.

     

  3. Tell Tootoo, you did exactly what we thought you could, so go out now and find an NHL contract somewhere else. You are welcome.

     

  4. Tell Gomez, you go girl - you deserve your second chance.  You were pretty productive at times this past season.  Let's see what you can do in a top line spot since no other true center has vision to save his life on this club.

     

  5. Tell Ruutu, sorry no one gives you proper credit for being a good player and potential top 6 guy, but if you wanna work hard, we'll try you on the PP a bit more.

     

  6. Tell Zajac, you're buying everyone dinner on every road trip, because you're a 3rd line center now making way too much for a 3rd line center.

     

  7. Tell the fans, this is not a particularly strong team yet again, but at least it's more youthful, and maybe it'll springboard us into a competitive 2016-2017 club.  And some junkyard free agent signings this summer wouldn't have helped.
CAMMER - GOMEZ - BOUCHER
HENRIQUE - JOSEFSON - ELIAS
RUUTU - ZAJAC - YOUTH
MATTEAU - GIONTA - MORE YOUTH
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Tell Elias he can't win draws to save his life 

 

This is one aspect in which Elias has indeed been completely dreadful. Of all players in the league who have taken at least 500 draws this year, only Kevin Hayes, who is a rookie, has a worse FO%. Elias has won 38.4% of his draws. Hayes has won 37.1%. The closest player ahead of Elias in FO% (500 draws min.) is Evgeni Malkin who at 41.8% is a whole 3.4 percentage points higher than Elias. On the other hand, below Elias and Hayes there is Ennis at 36.6% who has taken only 183 draws and Granlund at 36% who has taken 445 draws. Beyond that, no one in the league who has even taken at least 100 draws has a lower FO%.  

 

Not that faceoffs are the most important aspect of the game, but to say Elias is bad at faceoffs is plain wrong. Gomez is bad. Elias is fvcking horrible.

Edited by Neb00rs
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  1. Tell Elias he can't win draws to save his life and force him to adapt to yet another new challenge if he wants top 6 minutes: RW

     

  2. Tell Bernier, thanks, but it's time to part ways, despite a strong second half in 2014-2015.

     

  3. Tell Tootoo, you did exactly what we thought you could, so go out now and find an NHL contract somewhere else. You are welcome.

     

  4. Tell Gomez, you go girl - you deserve your second chance.  You were pretty productive at times this past season.  Let's see what you can do in a top line spot since no other true center has vision to save his life on this club.

     

  5. Tell Ruutu, sorry no one gives you proper credit for being a good player and potential top 6 guy, but if you wanna work hard, we'll try you on the PP a bit more.

     

  6. Tell Zajac, you're buying everyone dinner on every road trip, because you're a 3rd line center now making way too much for a 3rd line center.

     

  7. Tell the fans, this is not a particularly strong team yet again, but at least it's more youthful, and maybe it'll springboard us into a competitive 2016-2017 club.  And some junkyard free agent signings this summer wouldn't have helped.
CAMMER - GOMEZ - BOUCHER
HENRIQUE - JOSEFSON - ELIAS
RUUTU - ZAJAC - YOUTH
MATTEAU - GIONTA - MORE YOUTH

 

 

1. Elias is better at C than he is at wing at this point.

2. I'm fine with this, but we better go after one of the better RW's in the UFA market.

3. Same as with Bernier.

4. I agree.

5. I agree.

6. If he's a 3rd line C, he's easily one of the best 3rd line C's in the league.  He just needs to find the right linemates, and he can produce.  He's shown this like he did last year putting up 48 points.

7. We have tons of cap space, and a lot of openings.  Why not go out and spend?  Our defense is improving, and we've shown we can win with this roster.  If we improve it even just a little bit, we can be extremely competitive next year.

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1. Elias is better at C than he is at wing at this point.

2. I'm fine with this, but we better go after one of the better RW's in the UFA market.

7. We have tons of cap space, and a lot of openings.  Why not go out and spend?  Our defense is improving, and we've shown we can win with this roster.  If we improve it even just a little bit, we can be extremely competitive next year.

1. yeh he's better at center, but "roles" need to be relative to the environment and what makes sense, just like it made sense for elias to switch to center several years ago relative to the team makeup at the time. the team makeup right now is one desperate for RWs.

 

2./7. why? the better UFA RWs are gonna want 2 and 3 and 4 year contracts.  why tie ourselves to another clunker for several years?  years of that approach is what gets the devils in trouble.  it's better to wait for real talent on UFA instead of signing overpriced low-mid range clunkers.  throwing money at the problem just because there's money to throw doesn't make sense.  frolik MAYBE.  but i'm tired of signing guys to longer deals than we should.  if history of the UFA market is any guide, it's always best to stay out of it for the first week or so, until prices become more reasonable.  and even longer... when guys are willing to sign 1 year deals.

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1. yeh he's better at center, but "roles" need to be relative to the environment and what makes sense, just like it made sense for elias to switch to center several years ago relative to the team makeup at the time. the team makeup right now is one desperate for RWs.

 

2./7. why? the better UFA RWs are gonna want 2 and 3 and 4 year contracts.  why tie ourselves to another clunker for several years?  years of that approach is what gets the devils in trouble.  it's better to wait for real talent on UFA instead of signing overpriced low-mid range clunkers.  throwing money at the problem just because there's money to throw doesn't make sense.  frolik MAYBE.  but i'm tired of signing guys to longer deals than we should.  if history of the UFA market is any guide, it's always best to stay out of it for the first week or so, until prices become more reasonable.  and even longer... when guys are willing to sign 1 year deals.

 

We have only 9 forwards signed for next year.  That's why.  We can't let Bernier and Tootoo go, and not bring anybody in because otherwise we won't have a full roster.

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Here's some interesting data from last year.

 

The top 90 forwards produced at 0.66 points per game or at around 54 points (or greater) over 82 games.  

Forwards ranked 91-180 produced at 0.47 points per game or at around 38 points (or greater) over 82 games.

Forwards ranked 181-270 produced at 0.31 points per game or at around 25 points (or greater) over 82 games.

 

From that data......

 

A 1st line forward is about 50 points or better

A 2nd line forward is about 40 - 49 points.

A 3rd line forward is about 25 - 30 points.

A 4th line forward is about 24 points or fewer.

 

These are all just rough estimates of course.

ok, Thanks for this .. roughly puts in perspective our situation

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We have only 9 forwards signed for next year.  That's why.  We can't let Bernier and Tootoo go, and not bring anybody in because otherwise we won't have a full roster.

Per my original lines... "youth".  Let the 2015 1st play.  Let another kid play.  NJ is not gonna be a good team next year even if they spend every dime they have on Joel Ward and Anton Vermette.  The quicker we accept that this mess takes more than 1 off season to fix, the quicker the team becomes better.  And I think part of that solution absolutely has to be continuing the youth movement that started on the backend.  Now let's just let as many kids play as possible for another up and down season and hopefully some mature during the year, and then next year hopefully guys like Henrique and Josefson and co can take it to another level to further help out.  But empty roster spots in my lines are only because I don't know who we will draft, and the AHL is not my expertise as to who might come from there or otherwise.  It doesn't mean we need to resign the same clunkers for no reason.  Bernier and Tootoo are not the difference between a fringe playoff team and a sure bet.  So no need to resign as they take up roster spots where we might actually develop home-grown youth.  Still, I know it won't happen and Lou will just sign 2 fighters or something silly.  But I can dream.  At least my dream tho isn't entirely based on the fantasy that NJ will suddenly be great next year, despite our obvious lack of depth, and specifically, positional depth in important places.  Hey, if Joel Ward or someone wants a 1 year deal in NJ, go for it.  But he doesn't.  No one wants to be in NJ.  That's why the Devils have to offer multi-year contracts to mediocre players on the free agent market to attract them.  

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First off - assuming we pick a forward with our 1st pick this year isn't a safe assumption.  But I'm pretty certain it is safe to say he won't be NHL ready next year.

 

Boucher on the first line spells disaster.  Kid has not shown a single thing that indiciates he's ready for prime-time minutes.  Then again, if you're trying to tank (our new favorite word!) it's not a bad idea.

 

Zajac on the 3rd isn't going to happen.  While he might be a 3rd line forward in 2/3 of the teams in this league, the Devils are paying him like a top center so he'll be given 1st line minutes.

 

It says something about how pathetic our forward corps is that we're potentially relying on Scott freakin Gomez to be our top center in 2015-2016.

Edited by Devilsfan118
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First off - assuming we pick a forward with our 1st pick this year isn't a safe assumption.  But I'm pretty certain it is safe to say he won't be NHL ready next year.

 

Boucher on the first line spells disaster.  Kid has not shown a single thing that indiciates he's ready for prime-time minutes.  Then again, if you're trying to tank (our new favorite word!) it's not a bad idea.

 

Zajac on the 3rd isn't going to happen.  While he might be a 3rd line forward in 2/3 of the teams in this league, the Devils are paying him like a top center so he'll be given 1st line minutes.

 

It says something about how pathetic our forward corps is that we're potentially relying on Scott freakin Gomez to be our top center in 2015-2016.

I guess so - but IMO this kind of thinking is dangerous - leads to extended mediocrity without the necessary growing pains.  I have no investment in more and more mediocre teams who flirt with making the playoffs but never do.  We've done that already.  What's the difference if the disaster is we miss by a lot vs we miss by a little?  Especially if the former gets young players more valuable experience? And if NJ wants to play Zajac as a #1 or #2 center, go for it, but his numbers (as someone pointed out not long ago) are almost the worst in the entire league for centers at even strength per minute.  He's been objectively awful [at producing offense].  Better to accept that, accept his albatross contract as a negative value, but at least use him in the correct role where he can succeed, ignoring the dollars--which is 3rd line center who can put up offense against unsuspecting other top lines.  Zajac just isn't going back to the day of 60 points anytime soon.  Not unless NJ finds a cherry-winger for him to make him look good.  He should be their 3rd line center going forward and they should let Josefson show if he has anything more outside of 4th/3rd line production.  I don't fear missing the playoffs again.  I fear almost making them again with yet more retread-mediocre talent.  It's time for something new.  We're not 1 piece away from a great roster.

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