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What NHL forward is currently worth the 6th pick


sundstrom

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Kovalchuk was definitely a rare case. Is there really much NHL level talent over there besides him? Radulov, but wasn't he having discipline problems and contract disputes with Nashville? Anyone else? For the most part, this is where the top players want to be, and I'm not too concerned about it.

 

burmistrov

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What I would offer Toronto is this.

 

 

6th, Merrill, Panthers 2nd, and Boucher for Kessel and Nylander

Leafs laugh and hang up. Too much quantity. Leafs are giving up 2 of the 3 best assets and theres a considerable drop to the 2nd, Merrill, and Boucher.

 

Kessel = 6th (this is up to opinion, personally I'd keep the 6th in a straight trade)

Nylander > Boucher, Merrill, 2nd

 

I think people are going to be upset at what Gelinas returns. Put yourself in the shoes of a team trading for him. What would you realistically give up for the services of Gelinas?

Edited by Mayday
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Guess we shouldn't.  I don't think Severson is lightyears ahead of Larsson, at all.

 

He's going to struggle next year, like Larsson did during his second season - as all sophomores do.  

 

A whole lot of you sure are enamored with the kid after just 51 games.

 

 

 

The idea that 'all sophomores struggle' is so unbelievably wrong.  Some do.  Most don't.  It's just that some have fluky rookie seasons that make their sophomore performance seem disappointing.  Severson is ahead of Larsson now, and he's 2 years younger.  He just didn't get Larsson's insane shooting luck this season.  

 

As for the 6th pick, there aren't any good matches because in order to trade a player for a 6th overall pick you have to be willing to get worse, and most teams are not looking to do that.  I can only think of two trades of top 10 draft picks in the last several drafts - the Schneider deal and the Staal trade.

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The idea that 'all sophomores struggle' is so unbelievably wrong.  Some do.  Most don't.  It's just that some have fluky rookie seasons that make their sophomore performance seem disappointing.  Severson is ahead of Larsson now, and he's 2 years younger.  He just didn't get Larsson's insane shooting luck this season.  

 

There's the standard definitive and biased triumph statement that I've missed as of late.

 

I don't think Severson is already ahead of Larsson, and I'd be interested to read what's convinced you of that.  Care to explain the "insane shooting luck" statement?  Larsson had a S% of 3.3%, while Severson had a 5.4% (3 goals on 91 shots, and 5 goals on 93 shots, respectively).  Severson certainly generated more shots per game, without a doubt.  But going off basic statistics, that's literally the only advantage Severson had over Larsson.  Larsson had a better overall season, a better PPG, was a positive +/- (Severson came in at -13), and regularly logged significantly more minutes than Severson did once the coaching change occurred and he was given a fair shot.

 

I'm obviously not rooting against the kid, but I just don't get this infatuation several of you have with him.

 

And I'm not going to argue semantics with you - the second-season dip in production and/or effectiveness has happened countless times.  Whether that's because the kid overachieved his first season is irrelevant - a dip in production is a dip in production.  That's what I'm saying.  Are you saying that Severson's first season was fluky?

Edited by Devilsfan118
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There's the standard definitive and biased triumph statement that I've missed as of late.

 

I don't think Severson is already ahead of Larsson, and I'd be interested to read what's convinced you of that.  Care to explain the "insane shooting luck" statement?  Larsson had a S% of 3.3%, while Severson had a 5.4% (3 goals on 91 shots, and 5 goals on 93 shots, respectively).  Severson certainly generated more shots per game, without a doubt.  But going off basic statistics, that's literally the only advantage Severson had over Larsson.  Larsson had a better overall season, a better PPG, was a positive +/- (Severson came in at -13), and regularly logged significantly more minutes than Severson did once the coaching change occurred and he was given a fair shot.

 

I'm obviously not rooting against the kid, but I just don't get this infatuation several of you have with him.

 

And I'm not going to argue semantics with you - the second-season dip in production and/or effectiveness has happened countless times.  Whether that's because the kid overachieved his first season is irrelevant - a dip in production is a dip in production.  That's what I'm saying.  Are you saying that Severson's first season was fluky?

 

No, not a lot of Larsson's shots went in, I agree.  So yeah, Larsson didn't have 'insane shooting luck' and I should be more careful about how I use words.  What he did have was an insane IPP.  IPP is the number of points a player gets divided by the total number of goals scored while he is on the ice.  Larsson got points on 61% of the goals the Devils scored while he was on the ice, which sounds not that remarkable, but it's actually the highest of any defenseman this year.  Is that sustainable?  Well, no, it's not - when you zoom out and look at multiple years, it becomes more difficult to do that.  The highest is Karlsson at 51.5%.  I'm not sure that Larsson really controls the offense in the way that it looked this year.  He has excellent breakout passing and his shot has improved and he can find guys in traffic, but I don't think he's an offensive dynamo.  He's above-average.  I just don't think with his skating and shot that he is ever going to be an excellent offensive player.

 

How is it 'semantics'?  Semantics is literally going to be me arguing that you don't know what semantics means.  The idea that every sophomore struggles, or even that most do, is wrong.  It just appears that way because it's much easier to think of 1st year players who didn't live up to that 1st year (basically a ton of players who won the Calder Trophy/were nominated).  There is no 'best 2nd year player' trophy.  How about Steven Stamkos?  Nicklas Backstrom?  Paul Kariya had a fine first season - he exploded in his 2nd year.  Same with Peter Forsberg.  And you know what?  I had to look this up too, because I honestly didn't know.  But compare this list of 1st year forwards to this list of 2nd year forwards and tell me the sophomore slump is common - 19 70 point seasons versus 6 for 1st year players, 38 60 point seasons versus 14 for 1st year players, etc.

 

I don't think Severson's 1st season is fluky at all and I don't think he will have a dip in production - quite the opposite.  Yes, he was eased back into the lineup, and yes his shots on goal dipped a lot when he was moved away from Greene/the power play was changed to Adam Oates's idiocy.  He's got tremendous talent and he's already showed the ability to take over shifts in a way that most rookies cannot.  He's a star in the making, and it sucks if you can't see it.

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No, not a lot of Larsson's shots went in, I agree.  So yeah, Larsson didn't have 'insane shooting luck' and I should be more careful about how I use words.  What he did have was an insane IPP.  IPP is the number of points a player gets divided by the total number of goals scored while he is on the ice.  Larsson got points on 61% of the goals the Devils scored while he was on the ice, which sounds not that remarkable, but it's actually the highest of any defenseman this year.  Is that sustainable?  Well, no, it's not - when you zoom out and look at multiple years, it becomes more difficult to do that.  The highest is Karlsson at 51.5%.  I'm not sure that Larsson really controls the offense in the way that it looked this year.  He has excellent breakout passing and his shot has improved and he can find guys in traffic, but I don't think he's an offensive dynamo.  He's above-average.  I just don't think with his skating and shot that he is ever going to be an excellent offensive player.

 

How is it 'semantics'?  Semantics is literally going to be me arguing that you don't know what semantics means.  The idea that every sophomore struggles, or even that most do, is wrong.  It just appears that way because it's much easier to think of 1st year players who didn't live up to that 1st year (basically a ton of players who won the Calder Trophy/were nominated).  There is no 'best 2nd year player' trophy.  How about Steven Stamkos?  Nicklas Backstrom?  Paul Kariya had a fine first season - he exploded in his 2nd year.  Same with Peter Forsberg.  And you know what?  I had to look this up too, because I honestly didn't know.  But compare this list of 1st year forwards to this list of 2nd year forwards and tell me the sophomore slump is common - 19 70 point seasons versus 6 for 1st year players, 38 60 point seasons versus 14 for 1st year players, etc.

 

I don't think Severson's 1st season is fluky at all and I don't think he will have a dip in production - quite the opposite.  Yes, he was eased back into the lineup, and yes his shots on goal dipped a lot when he was moved away from Greene/the power play was changed to Adam Oates's idiocy.  He's got tremendous talent and he's already showed the ability to take over shifts in a way that most rookies cannot.  He's a star in the making, and it sucks if you can't see it.

 

Nice post. Sophomore slump is horsesh!t. NBA has a most-improved award, which highlights a lot of great players that take a jump from year 1 to year 2 and 2 to 3. 

 

The potential of an Oates PP could hurt Severson there next season. That be a shame.

 

And comparing +/- between the two Devilsfan18...I think we can move on from that stat. 

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As for the 6th pick, there aren't any good matches because in order to trade a player for a 6th overall pick you have to be willing to get worse, and most teams are not looking to do that. I can only think of two trades of top 10 draft picks in the last several drafts - the Schneider deal and the Staal trade.

2 trades of top ten picks in three years doesn't make it seem like such a rarity. And in this case, if maybe not for the sixth pick, Edmonton is a pretty good match to make a trade to be able to draft one of Provorov, Hanifin or Warenski. Unless they want to take a shot and see if Kylington is still around at 16.

Otherwise, Lou's comments about the sixth pick are encouraging. It could be a total bust, but at least it's even more clear that he isn't blind to reality. It'll show in the second and third rounds though if he cuts it out with drafting size over skill, I.e no more Connor Chathams over Brayden Points.

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There was some discussion over Twitter last night about how the Devils would be inclined to trade the 6th pick for a current NHL forward. While I don't believe there is an NHL forward that another team would trade for 6th that makes sense for NJ, I wanted to list any forward that I would consider trading #6 for knowing exactly the shape the Devils are in - namely that they are far from one forward away from being a successful team.

 

Here is a list of forwards that I think you could conceivably link to #6

 

Corey Perry - would. no chance he's traded NMC

Ryan Getzlaf - would. no chance he's traded NMC

Patrice Bergeron -  30 years old. 7 more years on his contract. no thanks.

Milan Lucic - even though this is Neely 2.0 and that's who runs the team and wants more guys like him, i suppose he'd be considered. one more year until UFA so can't even consider it.

David Krejci - intriguing - but gets expensive quickly. basically what the devils were hoping zajac would be.

Johnny Gaudreau - would. no chance. why would calgary do this?

Sean Monahan - would. no chance. why would calgary do this?

Eric Staal - expensive, older, UFA in a year. downward slope of his career - would be a mistake of epic proportions

Jordan Staal - overrated, not offensive enough - makes no sense.

Jeff Skinner - coming off a terrible year - devils don't need LW. not worth the gamble

Marian Hossa - very good player but a lot of miles already on him and wouldn't be enough on his own. also very expensive and has cap recapture on him if that matters.

Patrick Sharp - starting to slow down, older. screams of a team not realizing that they need to rebuild and thinks they're better than they are

Matt Duschene - would. don't know why Colorado would though

Ryan O'Reilly - i like him, but i think 6 is too much. the fact that he is unsigned after next year is also a big time flag.

Gabriel Landeskog - would. no chance Colorado would.

Nathan MacKinnon - would. no chance Colorado would.

Ryan Johansen - would. no chance Columbus would.

Tyler Seguin - would. no chance Dallas would.

Jamie Benn - would. no chance Dallas would.

Val Nichuskin - intriguing but would pass. not enough of a track record to know if it's worth the gamble.

Taylor Hall - probably would. but miles and injuries already on him worry me. i don't think edmonton will deal him.

Ryan Nugent Hopkins - would. who knows how edmonton is going to play this out.

Jordan Eberle - no. way overrated and would be the type of move that someone sees more than is there and gives too much for him.

Sasha Barkov - don't think FL would and I'm not convinced that it makes sense for either team at this point.

Jonathan Huberdeau - would. don't see why FL would.

Anze Kopitar - would. no chance. LA won't move him.

Jeff Carter - would, but wouldn't be happy about it because there's already age there and he's proven that when he's not happy, you don't want him.

Zach Parise. Ha. won't happen and wouldn't want it to.

Max Pachioretty - would. don't love adding another LW to the mix but he's very good and worth #6.

Alex Galchenyuk - not good enough for #6.

Filip Forsberg - would. no reason for Nashville to do this.

James Neal - would not. doesn't advance the ball enough for NJ to part with #6.

John Tavares - would. no chance he's traded

Kyle Okposo - i like him but not enough for #6.

Ryan Strome - would think about it but in the end, probably not enough for #6

Derek Steppan - would but why bother discussing.

Mika Zabinijad - no - hasn't proven that he's the real thing so why gamble #6 on this.

Claude Giroux - would but why bother discussing.

Jakob Voracek - would but why bother discussing.

Gino Malkin - would. will never happen

Sidney Crosby - would. will never happen

Patrick Hornqvist - not remotely enough for #6

Chris Kunitz - absolutely not. this would be a fireable offense.

Joe Thornton - no. too old. devils are too far away for his impact to really help

Patrick Marleau - no. looks like he is on decline.

Logan Couture - would. can't see SJ doing it.

Joe Pavelski - would but age frightens me.

Thomas Hertl - not fooled by rookie campaign. too risky.

Alexander Steen - too old and not fooled by last year's good year

David Backes - no. one more year until UFA. wrong side of 30

TJ Oshie - no. just not enough offense of out him on his own.

Jaden Schwartz - would. don't see why blues would though.

Vlad Tarasendko - would. don't see why blues would though.

Steven Stamkos - would. will never happen.

Jonathan Drouin - probably would but lack of shot totals scares me that he might not be a goal scorer in the NHL.

Phil Kessel - discussed ad nauseum. would not. expensive. would be the type of salary that could stop devils from doing other things eventually. saving grace is he's a RW who scores. Devils #1 priority.

James Van Reimsdyk - would rather it to Kessel but still not sure. borderline if I'd go with this. but he's another LW, the one thing the Devils do not have open roster spots for right now.

Nazim Kadri - not good enough for #6.

Tyler Bozak - see Chris Kunitz only worse.

Bo Horvat - i don't see that this is a move that makes sense at this point. wouldn't even know what to think of it.

Alex Ovechkin - would. will never happen

Nick Backstrom - would. will never happen.

Blake Wheeler - not nearly enough for #6

 

_____

 

In a previous thread, Triumph stated that the Devils should not be trading this pick for a player and I have to agree. If they want to turn 6 into say, 8 and 38 from Columbus, I think you have to do that.

 

if toronto want to go into full tank mode and deal say, kessel (with retained salary) and JVR for #6 and gelinas, ok. but i just don't see it happening.

I think you are greatly over-valuing the 6th overall pick.  Looking quickly through your list, only guy I could see the Devils getting for the 6th is Kessel and a big part of that is because I think Toronto would love to rid themselves of his contract.  

 

Otherwise, unless any of those players are entering the last year of their contract and they are on a fairly bad team, I do not think they could  be had for the 6th pick.  Devils would have increase the package.

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Nice post. Sophomore slump is horsesh!t. NBA has a most-improved award, which highlights a lot of great players that take a jump from year 1 to year 2 and 2 to 3. 

 

The potential of an Oates PP could hurt Severson there next season. That be a shame.

 

And comparing +/- between the two Devilsfan18...I think we can move on from that stat. 

"Potential" of Oates PP? Not sure I get that? How does a coach's pp hurt a player?

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I think you are greatly over-valuing the 6th overall pick.  Looking quickly through your list, only guy I could see the Devils getting for the 6th is Kessel and a big part of that is because I think Toronto would love to rid themselves of his contract.  

 

Otherwise, unless any of those players are entering the last year of their contract and they are on a fairly bad team, I do not think they could  be had for the 6th pick.  Devils would have increase the package.

I think in most cases sundstrom was over-valuing many on that list of all those players. This years draft, (supposedly as strong as '03)? Picking number six is pretty darn big. 

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2 trades of top ten picks in three years doesn't make it seem like such a rarity. And in this case, if maybe not for the sixth pick, Edmonton is a pretty good match to make a trade to be able to draft one of Provorov, Hanifin or Warenski. Unless they want to take a shot and see if Kylington is still around at 16.

Otherwise, Lou's comments about the sixth pick are encouraging. It could be a total bust, but at least it's even more clear that he isn't blind to reality. It'll show in the second and third rounds though if he cuts it out with drafting size over skill, I.e no more Connor Chathams over Brayden Points.

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I don't see Edmonton trading any forwards for a draft pick. I don't see them making any deals that set them back in any way. Edmonton has a whole bunch of really great forwards, but after that, their depth is horrendous. 

 

As Tri said, you need a team that wants to get worse to trade a proven great player for a 6th overall pick.You hear Kessel rumours because Toronto is one of those teams. I'm not sure there are many others. The idea of trading a 6th pick for an older proven scorer is so foreign because teams that draft 6th overall should be using that draft choice. You aren't close to the playoffs generally if you are drafting 6th overall, and the Devils were closer to bottom 3 than the playoffs. Also, the 6th pick is never a sure thing, so that's a lot of risk for the team giving up the proven player.

Edited by devilsrule33
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And comparing +/- between the two Devilsfan18...I think we can move on from that stat. 

eh, in this instance the plus/minus has its merit. both players were used interchangeably. got their fair share of top pairing and 2nd pairings. of course Larsson had scoring luck, but obviously after November Severson didn't.  now with that said, people here think Larsson is the second coming of Larry Robinson and wouldn't move him for a top forward, that I don't agree with

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I think in most cases sundstrom was over-valuing many on that list of all those players. This years draft, (supposedly as strong as '03)? Picking number six is pretty darn big. 

 

I agree with the courteous poster from the wrong side of the river. There is a time value of all things and the time value of a draft pick largely depends on how long before the player picked turns into the equivalent NHL player. A player picked 6th overall even in a strong draft such as this one will likely take at least 2-3 years to hit their stride as a consistent NHLer whereas the players on that list have all already hit that stride. That means there is a gap in the value of the assets that must be made up. There is also the uncertainty factor. Regardless of how highly touted a draft pick is, there is always the possibility of busting until they hit the NHL and prove otherwise. The players on that list are all proven commodities.

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2 trades of top ten picks in three years doesn't make it seem like such a rarity. And in this case, if maybe not for the sixth pick, Edmonton is a pretty good match to make a trade to be able to draft one of Provorov, Hanifin or Warenski. Unless they want to take a shot and see if Kylington is still around at 16.

Otherwise, Lou's comments about the sixth pick are encouraging. It could be a total bust, but at least it's even more clear that he isn't blind to reality. It'll show in the second and third rounds though if he cuts it out with drafting size over skill, I.e no more Connor Chathams over Brayden Points.

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2 out of the last 3 drafts, sure.  When you look at 2 picks moved out of the last I dunno, 15 drafts, it starts to look less common.  I really can't remember it happening much.  Oh, the Rangers traded for the 4th overall in 99, so there's that.  Philadelphia dealt for 4th overall in 2002.  Different era though - bonuses could be an issue back then, now they're not.  It's worth noting that both of those trades happened with Tampa.

Edited by Triumph
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2 out of the last 3 drafts, sure.  When you look at 2 picks moved out of the last I dunno, 15 drafts, it starts to look less common.  I really can't remember it happening much.  Oh, the Rangers traded for the 4th overall in 99, so there's that.  Philadelphia dealt for 4th overall in 2002.  Different era though - bonuses could be an issue back then, now they're not.  It's worth noting that both of those trades happened with Tampa.

 

Burke had to do 100 things in the 1999 draft to get both Sedins if I remember correctly.

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2 out of the last 3 drafts, sure.  When you look at 2 picks moved out of the last I dunno, 15 drafts, it starts to look less common.  I really can't remember it happening much.  Oh, the Rangers traded for the 4th overall in 99, so there's that.  Philadelphia dealt for 4th overall in 2002.  Different era though - bonuses could be an issue back then, now they're not.  It's worth noting that both of those trades happened with Tampa.

 

Mind you, remember when Tampa Bay was considered in much the same way as Edmonton is now to be the beneficiary of too many high draft picks and a wasteland for all the talent that went down there? Not really on topic to this thread, but it seems pertinent given the agita over Edmonton's draft lottery win.

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I don't think we have what it would take... Plus there's no way Pittsburgh would deal him in the division.

 

 

You are so right, it always amazes me what some fans think our players are worth and then to think of trading within the division. We have very little of value to trade. No teams want Salvador, Ruutu, Zubrus, Havlet, Clowe, Frazer, Harrold or Ryder. Bernier, Gionta and Tootoo aren't going to bring much. Gelinas won't bring much. Sevenson and Merrill need to be package to get something.. Larsson, Greene and Schneider can bring a lot but then what do we lose by giving up them. This is a circle jerk that we have gotten into. This leaves us with Elias, Cammalleri, Gomez, Josefson, Henrique, Kinkaid and Zajac. Good luck with the bandaids, Lou.

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