Off-season Game Plan: It Won't be Lou's

[devilsrule33]

The more and more I watch the playoffs and evaluate the past season and the current roster, the more I believe that next season NEEDS to be a "retooling season". I've posted that opinion over the last few months in a number of threads, but I am going to try and peace it all together here.

 

Plenty of teams have been able to pull a quicker turn-around. The key is immediately understanding when your team is not close to competing, trading players to collect assets, and avoiding using future cap space on band-aids. Granted  don't know Lou's game plan, but I have a feeling that isn't it. Lets recap what Lou has said during the year and after the season ended:

 

"I think that we have to get a couple of offensive forwards, Our role players are outstanding. Our defense, I'm extremely pleased with. Goaltending, I don't think say enough about it the way it's been. So we have to get a couple offensive players.” We certainly will look at somebody within the framework of the system that we play – defense first. But we also have to get some offensive players too to complement that.”

 

 "I still feel good about the team that came into training camp. Things didn't go right for different reasons and I take that responsibility.”

 

“I don't think there is any question there has been progress made. Where the progress has been made is in the people who are our core people – whether it's the Adam Henriques or Travis Zajacs – we have to get them to be at the level they should be. For whatever reasons, they weren't at the level they needed to be and some or our younger defensemen just weren't progressing the way – and I'll put it on me – I thought they should. I'll take that responsibility for that. But, at this point, we're seeing that and we're seeing a sense of confidence and trust in each other in those type of players.”

 

These quotes are ridiculous. These are the kind of quotes from a GM that doesn't have to answer to anyone or doesn't have to answer to anyone with a hockey background. Either Lou is delusional about his own team or he's too damn stubborn to admit that he's wrong. I get it -- fair or unfair, it's tough for a GM to admit that he's overrated his extremely flawed roster, and that the team played to close to its ability and it was never going to be good enough. Most GMs don't get the chance to say, "Things aren't good, I made some mistakes, but I'm confident I can turn it around with a few patient years." Usually you have to be pretty damn tight with someone in ownership to get to rebuild your own problems. Does this ever happen? Rutherford for a bit in Carolina? Instead, if you haven't been fired after 4 missed playoff seasons in 5 years, you are usually left to double down on a flawed roster, or you are kind of oblivious. 

 

I understand not everyone is Lou Lamoriello, and it's clear that his past success is keeping him around for now. Maybe he feels some pressure to make the playoffs (I doubt it), maybe age has a part to do with it -- when you are 72, I bet you don't want to be going into any season with the mindset that we are going to take a step back and not be that competitive, but Lou Lamoriello thinks they're close. Not sure what they are close to, but whatever it is, they are far off.

 

So lets look at the Offense that is needing a couple of forwards...

 

The Devils surely need a few offensive forwards desperately to be competitive, but not the ones you can trade for with Gelinas and a 2nd pick and not the ones you sign a free agent. It's the kind of players you get with the 1st overall draft this year, or by adding the 1st overall draft pick a decade earlier (Crosby) or by adding Seguin and Kane. The forward group sucks. It really really sucks. It's fvcking terrible. It's not just missing a couple of offensive players. It's missing two centers.  It's missing top wingers. It needs an entirely new top 6. Yes, on another team with great lineups, a few guys can be top 6 players, but definitely not with each other. This is the group as of now for next season:

 

Mike Cammalleri - 33

Patrik Elias - 39

Travis Zajac - 30

Adam Henrique - 25

Scott Gomez - 36  (UFA, but I expect him to be back)

Dainius Zubrus - 37 (Maybe he's back)

Tuomo Ruutu - 32 

Jacob Josefson - 24

Stephen Gionta - 32

Steve Bernier - 30 (UFA, Devils probably want him back)

Jordin Tootoo - 32 (UFA, Devils probably want him back)

 

It's old. Like really really old. While team's have made concerted effort's to get younger, the Devils have doubled down on old age...mostly out of necessity.  I bolded two players in-particular -- the "young" guys and the ones Lou mentioned specifically in one of the quotes above. It's tough for a GM to know the league that well. You're gonna swing and miss on free agent signings. But you have to get a good feel for your own personnel. If you overrate your core players, that will lead you down a really ugly path. I'm afraid that's what Lou is doing with Adam Henrique and Travis Zajac. 

 

Just because Adam Henrique is your leading scorer doesn't mean he's that good. Just because he's your only key forward under 30, doesn't mean he should be part of the core. Just because he scored a big OT goal doesn't mean he's some clutch big game player. And even if he had these mythical qualities, there's 82 games of meh play stopping him from unleashing big game Adam. By now, you have an idea what he is, an average forward with limited abilities/awareness that has a good shot, but doesn't shoot enough.

 

Then there's Travis Zajac. He's a useful player, but the man made history when he averaged 19 minutes of ice-time, 2+ minutes of PP time per game and had 25 points. That's absolutely incredibly hard to pull off. The 2008-2010 Travis with Parise is not part of this organization. He's not going to be that player with anyone else on this roster or anyone you bring in. There could be a small offensive resurgence, but I'd refuse to bet on it.

 

THESE ARE YOUR ONLY AVERAGE PLAYERS UNDER 30 ON YOUR ROSTER. Understand what they can and cant do and act accordingly. No Pete Deboer did not get them off track, and Adam Oates sure as hell didn't get them back to the level that they should be. And say he actually did, you were up close to see what that actual level was.

 

A few notes on some other forwards...

 

Mike Cammalleri - A lot of people have said this was a nice win for Lou. Someone said there is no winning in free agency, and there sure as hell isn't any winning after year 1. I have my doubts about Cammalleri moving forward. Triumph discussed a bit about him in another thread, but he isn't going to make others better, and there isn't anyone currently on the team that really helps him get his ridiculous shot off. This is part of the issue with going after any winger. The Devils have no centre to currently play him with, and it's pretty much impossible to get a good centre. The UFA list is miserable. Fisher and Vermette lead the list, and besides both being wayyyyyyyyyyy past their prime with a sh!t ton of miles, between the two of them - there is one single 30 assist season.

 

Patrik Elias - There's gonna be some good from Elias and some bad, but his best days ahead are not coming with this team. I absolutely love Elias, but I see no reason for him to be on this team next year. It's best for his long-term, and the Devils long-term to move him immediately, and acquire assets. I'm taking my chances that his value will be higher now than it is in early March.

 

Steve Bernier and Jordin Tootoo - Do not overpay for role players after a good season. We've all seen enough of that throughout the league, and it never pays off. These players move around from team to team, and they can be replaced easily. Tootoo was in the AHL last season. Bernier to start this year. Now they'll probably get term and more $$$. One of these guys should be back at the right price. But we've seen four years of Steve Bernier, but no one should be wowed about what either did when getting PP time and bigger minutes. That's just how hockey works.

 

These two are just examples I've heard about the Devils bottom 6 being solidified, or Lou saying the role players are outstanding". Look around at the good teams. You'll find better than Gionta, Zubrus, Ruutu, Josefson, Bernier, Tootoo on most of them. This isn't a strictly top 6/bottom 6 league. The top players only play 18-19 min a night. There are fewer PPs than ever. You need depth and scoring throughout your lineup. If the Devils don't have much in the "top 6", they definitely need to make up for it on the "bottom 6", which they most certainly will not looking at the names above.

 

Defense

To even want to believe your team can compete, you need to really like the defense. Without any forward prospects, it's easy to really want to like the future on the back end. There's a lot of potential, but it just potential right now. Gelinas is crap. Merrill had a dreadful season. Larsson was pretty solid with Greene, and hopefully we see the next step, and I have high hopes for Severson. There's a lot of question marks and a few holes to fill -- more if either Gelinas or Merrill is traded. Just a reminder because a lot of people acknowledge the offense is a problem, but seem to think the offense is a few improvements away because of Schneider and the Devils defense from 2003 apparently. Not quite.

 

Anyway, I'm not going to make this a thread where I lay out a potential roster for next season (that's one of the best annual threads, and can be saved for later), but I do have a few suggestions. This really is the most important off-season in franchise history, and it sickens me how fvcked up it could get. There was only one person who could have saved 2015-2016 from being a dreadful one. He's going to Edmonton. There's nothing else out there to save the Devils. That's fine with me. I have no problem rooting for terrible teams as long as there is a big picture goal out there. I'll gladly sign up for a year that Buffalo or Arizona had if it brings us a top 3-4 pick in 2016 and financial flexibility for a much better free agent class. What pains is me is another year like this with the GM saying,  "I still feel good about the team that came into training camp. Things didn't go right for different reasons and I take that responsibility.”

 

 

My off-season wishlist:

- Do not trade the 6th pick for any roster player. Keep it and draft a forward, or trade down for a forward and acquire more picks.

- Do not trade either of the 2nd round picks unless it is to move up into the 1st round to acquire a forward.

- Trade Patrik Elias either before the draft with the main asset being some picks in the 2015 draft, or in the off-season with 1 close to NHL prospect being available (gladly take back a bad contract with only 1yr left on the deal).

- Do not sign any free agent forward for more than 2 yrs and $4 million. Pretty much avoid anyone in the top 15-20 list that is seeking more than 2yrs

- Buy out Zubrus

- Look to trade Gelinas for a forward prospect

- Sign Scott Gomez (if I am going to watch a few games, I need one player that can pass the puck)

 

Expect to struggle, and accept it because the alternative is much worse.

Edited May 5, 2015 by devilsrule33

[Triumph]

Moving Elias is going to be a large challenge because of his cap hit and performance - I don't think it makes any sense to do that in the off-season unless A: Patrik asks for it or B:  the Devils can somehow find a deal where they don't take back a bad contract.  I mean I'd do Elias for Weiss + Larkin but the Wings would never go for something like that, they're doing fine on cap space afaik.  I'd trade him to the Habs for Parenteau and one of their young forwards (Andrighetto/De La Rose/Hudon) and pick up half the contract besides.  Again, not particularly likely.  I think Elias is more likely to move at the deadline in 2016.

 

Actions speak louder than words - if Lou does very little this offseason, he'll say that he thinks the Devils are a good team even if he doesn't think that.

 

Anyway, nice post and summary.

Edited April 28, 2015 by Triumph

[sokar]

The only thing I disagree with is I would not buy out Zubrus other than that I agree with everything you said

[Louismydad]

The only thing I disagree with is I would not buy out Zubrus other than that I agree with everything you said

Seriously, I dont understand when people say we need to buy out zubrus, he can play 4th line and pk minutes. He only has one year left so i dont understand. You are one of the only people here who agree with me.

[HellOnICE]

Buy him out. He's awful awful awful. 

[Louismydad]

Buy him out. He's awful awful awful.

I dont think you understand what a buyout is used for. We are not spending to the cap, he has one year left on that contract, he can be used in a 4th line/pk role. I don't know how much clearer to make it, I've said it too many times.

[Triumph]

I dont think you understand what a buyout is used for. We are not spending to the cap, he has one year left on that contract, he can be used in a 4th line/pk role. I don't know how much clearer to make it, I've said it too many times.

 

He is no longer an NHL player.  He took too many penalties and has zero impact on offense.  If he's on the team next year it's a canary in the coal mine that Lou has lost it, he's jettisoned players he loved for better performances than what Zubrus gave last year.  It's one of the worst seasons a Devils forward has ever had when you consider how many minutes he played.

[Louismydad]

He is no longer an NHL player. He took too many penalties and has zero impact on offense. If he's on the team next year it's a canary in the coal mine that Lou has lost it, he's jettisoned players he loved for better performances than what Zubrus gave last year. It's one of the worst seasons a Devils forward has ever had when you consider how many minutes he played.

I'm not suggesting we keep him him in his current role, he sucks. Just think a buyout is stupid at this point, doesn't really make much sense. If you wanted to buy him out before this season then yes, but in this situation, I don't think so.

[MadDog2020]

And this doesn't even take into account who the new coach will be- another scary element to the entire equation.

Edited April 29, 2015 by MadDog2020

[Triumph]

I'm not suggesting we keep him him in his current role, he sucks. Just think a buyout is stupid at this point, doesn't really make much sense. If you wanted to buy him out before this season then yes, but in this situation, I don't think so.

 

Tell him he can stay home and collect a paycheck for not playing then.  He cannot be on the team next year, not in any role.

[sokar]

If you buy him out half of his cap is going to count against us for the next 2 yrs. If this team was going to be in cap hell next year I would understand buying him out but we are not. Also for all we know the coach may scratch him for most of the season.  Plus does any one here think this team is going to be a playoff team next year cause we dont have Zubrus on this team

[NewarkDevil5]

Tell him he can stay home and collect a paycheck for not playing then.  He cannot be on the team next year, not in any role.

 

I agree that he shouldn't be on the NHL team, but I also agree that buying him out is a waste of money. Send him down to Albany for the year.  

[Derlique]

He is no longer an NHL player. He took too many penalties and has zero impact on offense. If he's on the team next year it's a canary in the coal mine that Lou has lost it, he's jettisoned players he loved for better performances than what Zubrus gave last year. It's one of the worst seasons a Devils forward has ever had when you consider how many minutes he played.

Agreed Zubrus doesn't belong but there is one major difference. When the Rolstons, Pandolfos and Brylins were bought out/moved, it was reasonable to believe the team could make a run. No longer the case

[Daniel]

I see the belly aching about Zubrus the same as with Gionta. He's a fourth line player at this point, albeit an overpaid one on a team that does not have cap issues. If you can manage to fill the roster with enough forwards that he's just taking up a spot for someone better, by all means buy him out. But otherwise you can't really get any worse than the current batch of forwards the team currently has.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Jerzey]

Next year will probably be another rebuild year so it doesn't really matter to me if Zubs is in there or not.

I like just about all of your wishes for the offseason but I wouldn't mind adding one of the 2nds (preferably 41st, not 36th) to Gelinas to see if we could get a better return. I'm just not that confident in Gelinas' value alone.

[fsu1852]

I have a gut feeling that the 6th overall pick will be traded

[Triumph]

I see the belly aching about Zubrus the same as with Gionta. He's a fourth line player at this point, albeit an overpaid one on a team that does not have cap issues. If you can manage to fill the roster with enough forwards that he's just taking up a spot for someone better, by all means buy him out. But otherwise you can't really get any worse than the current batch of forwards the team currently has.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

No, he is not.  He is worse.  He is worse than Gionta and all the other forwards that we currently have.  Gionta draws penalties, he shoots the puck, he plays an adequate 4th line role - he'll never score because he's a terrible shooter, but things happen when he has the puck, at least sometimes.  Dainius Zubrus is a cipher, he's old, and he will only get worse - there's zero reason for him to be on the team, and it's almost impossible to imagine that you can't find 13 forwards better than him, because he is probably lower than replacement level at this point.  And he will only get lower.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Triumph

[StormJosh]

I've been a big Zubrus fan for a long time but the guy is just no longer an AHL player. I'm not sure he's an above-average AHLer at this point. I'd rather use literally anyone in the organization instead of him in this point. I wish him all the best but he's done as an NHL player.

[devilsrule33]

Funny how a throw away line in a big post has garnered all the discussion. But to that point, Tri nailed it. Gionta is a lot better than Zubrus at this stage. I've probably said this 50 times, but the very fact that Ruutu could not jump Zubrus in the depth chart is concerning for me. That's no fault of Ruutu's, but rather idiotic managing from both staffs, but especially Oates' since Zubrus really hit rock bottom during a stretch. Rock bottom being his first 30 games under that group where he had 0 goals, 14 shots and 13 minors. They might be oay with Zubrus being strictly a 4th line player. That surely be a mistale.

 

As for the non Zubrus-talk, I like dealing Elias earlier because the possibility of getting a pick or a prospect now. I'm also expecting the offense to be even more of a disaster during the year, and Elias value plummet at the deadline.

 

I see no reason why the Devils couldn't pick up some salary. In addition to Detroit and Montreal, I'll throw in a trade to Pitt and taking back Dupuis and the last two years of his deal or a deal to Ottawa where the Devils take back Greening and something nice. 

Edited April 29, 2015 by devilsrule33

[Zubie#8]

Im the biggest Zubs guy in history and I even think he should be bought out.

[jagknife]

Can he slip during the offseason and be LTIR so we dont have half his cap hit for two years

[sokar]

I really thought Elias was going to be traded at this year's dead line to a team like islanders or Pens.

[SterioDesign]

Great post, in which you said quite a few things that i've been saying for years but been called out for. Bottom line the management has been a patch up work mess with no real future direction other than "Win now" and this has been hurt the team. 

 

We CAN'T have another season like that, no more secretive bullsh!t insulting fans intelligence. 

 

Plus getting a "competitive roster" is not even enough often, look at St-Louis, who in here wouldnt swap our full roster for the blues roster? Bam out in the first round. LA kings? didnt even make it. So i think its a stretch to say were 2 forwards away from making it. It takes a lot more than that, we don't even have a system at this point with no coaches

Edited April 29, 2015 by SterioDesign

[BostonNala370]

Terrific posts from devilsrule33 and Tri. They have nailed it.

BTW Zubrus has to go.

I don't expect much next season because Lou has the wrong overall team strategy. This is not a team that gets fixed by adding two offensive players, unless fix is making 8th place and out in four of the first round.

Great job dr33.

[mort4345]

For starters, great post. With regard to Zubrus, I agree that he should have no place on the team next year (although I agree a buyout is probably not the best option). One need only needs to look at this entry by Todd Cordell regarding Zubrus' value of the team to recognize that. See the post here:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Todd-Cordell/What-Happened-To-Dainius-Zubrus/159/67428

 

Secondly I'm definitely inclined to keep the 6th overall pick (or trade down a few slots and get assets) rather than trading for a roster player. Now, perhaps Lou pulls a rabbit out of his hat and deals the 6th pick for a true stud, but I think that's fairly doubtful at this point (and no, I'm not putting Kessel in that category). In fact, I'm really worried that this is the route that Lou takes. I also agree with the takes on Zajac and Adam (they're decent players but not necessary a core to build around). I think Elias is pretty much done. Yes he has the occasional flashes of his old self, but far too often he seems to really be showing his age - and hence becomes a liability on too many shifts.

 

The defense does have potential but it's certainly not going to be striking fear in the opposition anytime in the near future. Cory is awesome. Cams is worth the money. But the Devils need a legitimate #1 center and some quality scoring in the top 6 in the worst way if they are even going to start thinking about contending. In addition, Lou needs to stop acquiring aging vets (see Havlat, Ryder, Clowe, etc.) which serve virtually no purpose. But unfortunately it's a mistake the Devils seem to make year in and year out. And while I think the philosophy of keeping Gomez, Bernier, Tootoo and even Gionta are merited to a certain extent (with a reasonable salary - which is key), they're not going to be the difference between the Devils become a playoff contender. 

 

So, in short, there is a lot of work to be done. But going forward, Lou needs to have a way better plan in place than what he's presented so far over the last few seasons.