Neb00rs Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 (edited) On 4/11/2016 at 2:00 PM, Daniel said: Not sure what the odds are that it's second or third, but I imagine it's a better than remote chance, maybe 15%? Our chances of winning the 2nd pick depends on who wins the first pick, and then our chances of winning the 3rd pick depend on who wins the second (and first) pick. Obviously, all teams benefit from teams with better odds (Toronto, Edmonton, etc...) winning the first two picks as this increases the odds the most for us (and everyone else) of winning the lottery at all. Let's look at two scenarios: The Devils have at best a 3% of winning the first pick. Let's say Toronto and Edmonton (the two bottom teams) win the first two picks: If Toronto wins the first pick the Devils increase to a 3.75% chance of winning the second pick. This is our best chance of winning the second pick, if we don't win the first. Then, if Edmonton wins the second pick, the Devils chances of winning the 3rd pick increase to 4.51%. However, with that order, the chances that we would have won the lottery BY the 3rd pick are 10.85%, which happens to be our best chance of winning the lottery in any of the three rounds. Now, let's look at another scenario, when the bottom two teams don't win the first two picks: Let's say the Sabres (8th pick as of now) win the first pick. Then the Devils chances of winning the second pick increase to only 3.19%. If the Canucks (3rd pick as of now) then win the 2nd pick in the lottery, the Devils chances of winning the 3rd pick increase to 3.64%. In this scenario, the chances that we would have won the lottery by the 3rd pick are 9.51%. This is a decrease of 1.34% from the first scenario. Either way, we have to get pretty lucky to win the lottery, but as you can see, it's not improbable at all. Edited April 28, 2016 by Neb00rs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonDreads Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Between Keller and Jost, I prefer Jost, he's shredded every level he's played at this year and his shot is one of the best in the draft, but I'd be thrilled with either at #11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Eco Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I got Devils in 3rd draft spot 2 times out of 10, running the http://nhllotterysimulator.com So there's that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HellOnICE Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Rub your lucky whatever, pray to whomever - tonight's the night! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 I'd give my first born to get into a top 3 spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarpathianForest Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 1 hour ago, HellOnICE said: Rub your lucky whatever, pray to whomever - tonight's the night! I tend to rub it every Saturday regardless of a special event or not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nessus Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 I'm not fully aware of the rules of the NHL lottery w.r.t. how probability is broken down for each of the lottery picks after the first. Does anyone know how likely it is that the Devils get selected for pick 1, 2, or 3? I would assume close to 10% assuming it's around 3% for each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunninWithTheDevil Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Ran the sim 100 times, got in the Top 3 nine times, 1 first pick, 3 second picks, and 5 third picks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said: Scroll up a few posts Honestly, I'd like to make a revision, Edmonton has a 100% chance of winning the first pick when I factor in horsesh1t. Edited April 30, 2016 by Neb00rs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derlique Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 This could be a huge night in out franchise's history. LGD! Let's hope for some luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neb00rs Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/nhl-draft-lottery-preview--who-deserves-2016-top-pick-the-most-173728497.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ghdi Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 On 4/24/2016 at 7:39 PM, CommonDreads said: EDIT: Also, I don't understand the disdain for Julien Gauthier. I agree, Devils need a playmaking forward, but what's the huge issue with a 6'4", 212 lb pure goal scorer? 41 goals in 54 games isn't really anything to scoff at. Its where he's coming from. He's got numbers in a lesser league. He's a good player and could be a good NHL'er, but there's likely to be someone better where we're picking. If we get bumped to say 13 or 14, then maybe he becomes an option. At 11, there are assuredly better players on the board at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevilMinder Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Poop! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nessus Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Damn, didn't win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffleFries Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Edmonton didn't win and the devs pick didn't move down. I guess there is some justice. Really was hoping the yotes would get Matthews if the Devs weren't gonna get him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Toronto wins. fvck them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nessus Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 1 - Toronto 2 - Winnipeg 3 - Columbus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaffleFries Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 fvck the Canadian Rangers. I guess tanking really is the only way to get top pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 I hope Matthews likes the nutbag media up there. They'll be camping out on his front lawn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokar Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 ehh at least we didnt move down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roomtemp Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Just now, sokar said: ehh at least we didnt move down That was worst case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lateralous Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 17 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said: Toronto wins. fvck them. Dammit, anyone but them. Honestly would have preferred the Oilers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecoffeecake Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 I couldn't find any info about who won the lottery before i came on here, what's the deal with no news coming out of NHL.com? But i agree that Toronto was the worst choice, but at least it will be fun to watch another top prospect waste away in Canada. Too bad this one's American. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DevilMinder Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 instant news is all twitter is good for these days. Even if you only look during news events Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadDog2020 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Toronto wins. fvck them. Dammit, anyone but them. Honestly would have preferred the Oilers Me too. I detest the fvcking Leafs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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