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Mets 2015-16 Offseason Thread


'7'
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Upton draws more walks (considerably higher OB% lifetime...Upton is at .352, Cespedes at .319) and has the higher OB+SLG (.825 to .805).  Both guys strike out a plenty. 

I do think Cespedes' value is hurt a little bit by moneyball/sabermetic embracers...I think the fact that he doesn't get on base a lot hurts.  And I think people definitely have concerns about his make-up. 

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Boomer and Carton chiding Sandy for basically saying that he's still in contact with Cespedes' agent and getting Met fans' hopes up in the process.

It IS annoying from the standpoint that we know the Mets aren't signing him, barring a miracle.  Some (like me) are OK with that, but a lot of Met fans do want him back.  Don't jerk the fanbase around, with the "square peg/round hole" quote, but then saying you're still in contact with Cespedes' agent...it's going to be that much more aggravating for many Met fans when Cespedes signs elsewhere.  Let the fans move on. 

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The Mets just never learn, they'll never learn that fans don't care about 'we tried' or actually believe that they really are trying in the first place.

Evan Roverts Tweeted the STH meeting was more contentious this year than last year, coming off a WS appearance.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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Sandy will be never be warm and fuzzy, and can come off as beyond condescending.  He also has to know that the "but we ARE spending money" mantra he's put out there is going to ring hollow with most of the fanbase.  Said it before, but there was no way the payroll was going to stay somewhere in the $80-$90 million range...the Met payroll is still very low for a larger-market team...not saying that they HAVE to spend recklessly or should be expected to just because they're a NY team, but don't make it sound like the coffers have been opened up.  This is still a team that penny-pinches constantly, and I still think it's because they just don't have much to spend.

Sometimes honesty (or something at least approaching it) is the best policy.  We all know Sandy is 100% full of sh!t when he's intimating that the Mets are still on the outskirts of the hunt for Cespedes.  EVERYONE knows there's a 1% chance that he's going to be a Met...nothing has changed, even with sound on-the-field reasons for not bringing him back, they're not bringing him back due to finances.  They don't want to pay him, they never have, and the only way they will is if the market just completely collapses for him (it may shrink, but I doubt it collapses to the "what the hell" price the Mets have in mind).  Just stick with the "square peg/round hole" mantra and call it a day.     

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Supposedly the Mets are willing to go 3 years 60 million for Cespedes, which will get them laughed off the table, especially with teams like the White Sox, Angels and Braves (moving into a new ballpark) still sniffing around on him

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I'm shocked they're willing to go that high...that's a lot for them. 

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37 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Sandy will be never be warm and fuzzy, and can come off as beyond condescending.  He also has to know that the "but we ARE spending money" mantra he's put out there is going to ring hollow with most of the fanbase.  Said it before, but there was no way the payroll was going to stay somewhere in the $80-$90 million range...the Met payroll is still very low for a larger-market team...not saying that they HAVE to spend recklessly or should be expected to just because they're a NY team, but don't make it sound like the coffers have been opened up.  This is still a team that penny-pinches constantly, and I still think it's because they just don't have much to spend.

Sometimes honesty (or something at least approaching it) is the best policy.  We all know Sandy is 100% full of sh!t when he's intimating that the Mets are still on the outskirts of the hunt for Cespedes.  EVERYONE knows there's a 1% chance that he's going to be a Met...nothing has changed, even with sound on-the-field reasons for not bringing him back, they're not bringing him back due to finances.  They don't want to pay him, they never have, and the only way they will is if the market just completely collapses for him (it may shrink, but I doubt it collapses to the "what the hell" price the Mets have in mind).  Just stick with the "square peg/round hole" mantra and call it a day.     

I think a lot of the positive effect of the 2015 World Series run really won't get felt until AFTER this season, in terms of more $ coming in due to greater media exposure, ad revenue, tix, concessions. For now they'll still be penny pinchingly annoying and yes Sandy in all his condescending glory is tough to take. Met fans are notoriously jumpy so when he leaves the door slightly ajar for weeks saying we're still in on Cespedes it'll just annoy us further when some other team signs him for a contract that we know we were never even close to bidding on. Just say we've moved on to Steve Pearce and Ryan Raburn and be done with it.

I so wish this team could solve some of it's problems by spending like a NY team instead of being forced to trade prospects. 

Edited by '7'
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It is something, but I was never a fan of Bastardo....in typical reliever fashion he alternates good and bad years. Was above average last year for Pitt but nothing special, but his 2014 and 2012 was bad. And we're giving him 2 years at $6 mil per. So I guess any pennies we were scrounging together in the hope of Cespedes falling into our lap are gone now.

But he's a lefty who you can leave in against righties. That's always good.

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On ‎1‎/‎21‎/‎2016 at 11:11 PM, '7' said:

It is something, but I was never a fan of Bastardo....in typical reliever fashion he alternates good and bad years. Was above average last year for Pitt but nothing special, but his 2014 and 2012 was bad. And we're giving him 2 years at $6 mil per. So I guess any pennies we were scrounging together in the hope of Cespedes falling into our lap are gone now.

But he's a lefty who you can leave in against righties. That's always good.

I did some research on the whole "good year, bad year" thing.  I've never been a firm sabes guy (no secret there), but his FIP has been pretty consistent over the past five seasons (between 3.00 and 3.34)...which basically shows that the differences among those seasons had more to do with luck than anything else...some years he had better luck than others, but he's actually been fairly consistent. 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=bastaan01&t=p&year=2014

If you look at his game log from 2014, he had five appearances where he gave up 3+ ER...a total of 19 ER in those games.  He allowed 28 ER on the season and pitched in 66 games, so it's safe to say he was almost Colon-like last season...good most of the time, but some implosion-games blew up his overall season numbers.

2012 was similar...11 of the 25 ER he allowed that year came in three appearances, in a season where he pitched in 65 games.  Safe to say that he's effective most of the time.

He's allowed just 228 hits in 316.1 career IP and has struck out 388.  His control isn't the best (4.3 BB/9 IP), and I think that's the one thing that's a little concerning.  And for a team that doesn't appear to have that much to spend, the contract does seem a little pricey (not too much though).  But the Mets did need a bullpen arm, and they got a guy who doesn't give up a lot of hits but does rack up a lot of Ks, and usually does the job.  Overall, I think it's a pretty good signing. 

 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Good analysis CR, that sort of eases my worry a bit. Perhaps he's more consistent than what my only cursory look at the numbers led me to believe.

Nationals have made an offer to Cespedes, though now word on the years/amount yet.

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Apparently it's 5 years 100 million and they're in negotiations.  With a lot of deferred money too, aye caramba.

THIS is the kind of thing that makes the Mets look amateurish, having basically the two biggest reasons you even made the playoffs and went to the WS last year walk to a division rival.

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If it's 5/100 we're out. Nats are basically in "If we can't beat the Mets, buy them mode" but hey at least they're going all in to win. Spending the money, trying hard to retool that team, and not just pulling things together for 1 big year (Mets 2015) and then letting things decompose and going only halfway thereafter.

Steve Pearce to the Rays. Another guy the Mets were supposedly in on.

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8 minutes ago, '7' said:

If it's 5/100 we're out. Nats are basically in "If we can't beat the Mets, buy them mode" but hey at least they're going all in to win. Spending the money, trying hard to retool that team, and not just pulling things together for 1 big year (Mets 2015) and then letting things decompose and going only halfway thereafter.

Steve Pearce to the Rays. Another guy the Mets were supposedly in on.

And like the Tigers they have an 80+ owner that wants to win now.

Too bad Fred will never be that desperate cause he already has a ring, albeit before he became the real owner.

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7 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

And like the Tigers they have an 80+ owner that wants to win now.

Too bad Fred will never be that desperate cause he already has a ring, albeit before he became the real owner.

The thing is the Nats were actually the team to beat in the NL east last year and sh!t just hit the fan. They have a bad taste in their mouth and are determined. They have a pretty damn good lineup without Cespedes. Including him has to put them right there with the Cubs as favorites. 

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18 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

And like the Tigers they have an 80+ owner that wants to win now.

Too bad Fred will never be that desperate cause he already has a ring, albeit before he became the real owner.

Ted Lerner is 90! Google him. One of the better looking 90 year olds you'll ever see. First glance I thought 75.

Yea that is reminiscent. Though losing Hall was no big deal, he was always extremely erratic and we kept him for far too long ourselves (though of course he beats us with a field goal in week 1)

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If the Nats are willing to make a mistake in paying Cespedes, I don't think the Mets should make a worse mistake by outbidding them.

That being said, the Mets should be prepared for the fact that a lot of goodwill that had been built up is being destroyed in record time.  They can't start sliding backwards next year.  

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http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/cespedes-nationals-double-disaster-mets-article-1.2505462?utm_content=buffere387a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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A source confirmed a report by Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that Cespedes was torn between the offers in part because he preferred to stay with the Mets.

The same source the root of the Cuban defector’s indecision has as much to do with how much he enjoys playing and living in New York for its Latin culture and big-stage showcase as it does with the Mets.

“He’s played in four cities now," said a person close to the situation, “and he’s told friends that he felt more at home in New York than anywhere else by far. It’s a great city for the Latin guys."

To that end, another source said that Cespedes’ agents, the Roc Nation group, reached out to the Yankees on Thursday to tell them of the slugger’s desire to stay in New York, and ask if they’d be willing to jump in with a three-year offer.

All indications are that the Yankees have no such intentions, but the scenario itself is revealing and perhaps encouraging to the Mets.

Oh come on now, if this is even REMOTELY true give him a fourth year vesting player option, a fifth year team option and let's get this done.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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As crazy as it sounds, I'm starting to think the Mets might get this done...mostly on their terms, but on terms they can live with...if they're willing to be creative, which has not been a strong suit at all during the Alderson regime. 

It sounds like Cespedes really wants to be here...and if that's truly the case and he wants it that badly, then he needs to make some sacrifices.  If it's all about money in the end, I won't blame him or judge him for it, but hopefully he understands that not only isn't the best offer coming from the Mets, but that it probably won't be that close to what the Nats offer. 

From a purely on-the-field perspective, I think it's very iffy to bring him back and there's a good chance it won't work out as hoped.  But this is definitely a huge PR move, as most of the fan base wants him back, and it might be smart for this franchise to throw their fans a legitimate bone for once.  It would help sell tickets for sure (and Cespedes jerseys), and I think the fan base would back off the Wilpons and Alderson for a long time if they find a way to get this done.  The relationship between the fans and the franchise really has nowhere to go but up...there's no trust at all, and Met fans in recent seasons have been condescended to time and time again.

Once thing the fans will need to remember is that if this does somehow get done, say goodbye to flexibility for a while.  With the exception of minor tweaks, this will be your team...so if Cespedes is the slightly above-average hitter he was in 2013 and 2014, and Wright is still a massively-overpaid zilch, and Duda still looks like a Little Leaguer against good arms...you get the point.  Cespedes coming back means this is the team the Mets sink-or-swim with for a while (with the exception of Herrera eventually taking over at second base in 2017).  I'm not saying that will necessarily be an awful thing...more that Met fans can't piss and moan if nothing significant or pricey happens for the next few years. 

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30 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

As crazy as it sounds, I'm starting to think the Mets might get this done...mostly on their terms, but on terms they can live with...if they're willing to be creative, which has not been a strong suit at all during the Alderson regime. 

It sounds like Cespedes really wants to be here...and if that's truly the case and he wants it that badly, then he needs to make some sacrifices.  If it's all about money in the end, I won't blame him or judge him for it, but hopefully he understands that not only isn't the best offer coming from the Mets, but that it probably won't be that close to what the Nats offer. 

From a purely on-the-field perspective, I think it's very iffy to bring him back and there's a good chance it won't work out as hoped.  But this is definitely a huge PR move, as most of the fan base wants him back, and it might be smart for this franchise to throw their fans a legitimate bone for once.  It would help sell tickets for sure (and Cespedes jerseys), and I think the fan base would back off the Wilpons and Alderson for a long time if they find a way to get this done.  The relationship between the fans and the franchise really has nowhere to go but up...there's no trust at all, and Met fans in recent seasons have been condescended to time and time again.

Once thing the fans will need to remember is that if this does somehow get done, say goodbye to flexibility for a while.  With the exception of minor tweaks, this will be your team...so if Cespedes is the slightly above-average hitter he was in 2013 and 2014, and Wright is still a massively-overpaid zilch, and Duda still looks like a Little Leaguer against good arms...you get the point.  Cespedes coming back means this is the team the Mets sink-or-swim with for a while (with the exception of Herrera eventually taking over at second base in 2017).  I'm not saying that will necessarily be an awful thing...more that Met fans can't piss and moan if nothing significant or pricey happens for the next few years. 

I'm willing to live with this because he's the best available option without me having to trade the talent I already have.

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It would be very Met-like to STILL bungle this. For the first time in a long while you have a player who is literally just falling over himself wanting to be a Met and they're still probably going to let him walk.

If they don't go the extra mile here the Mets are going to get justifiably slaughtered in the media. And they probably don't even have to exceed the Nats offer, just get close enough.

Plus I think the specter of Jason Bay and perhaps even Mo Vaughn, Robby Alomar, and others are still hanging over the Wilpons heads. We've had a lot of misses. They're gun shy as well as poor.

Anyway, Cespedes agents meet with the Mets today. Why would they meet if it's only for the Mets to say "No dice, enjoy DC" you've got to figure they're going to at least try here. If they were truly done they'd be like Lou was with Mogilny...literally telling him to go sign in Toronto.

Edited by '7'
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I'd be stunned if that gets it done.  Interesting option for Cespedes though. 
 
It's funny...I think it's strictly fan outcry that's gotten the Mets to go even this far.  This is what passes for "See, we're going all out" in this case.  I think they're hoping that 1) Cespedes doesn't accept this and signs elsewhere, and 2) Cespedes signs but opts out after a year.  I don't think the Mets want to be tied to him beyond 2016. 
Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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