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New York Yankees 2015-16 Offseason Thread

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When I realize that I'm talking about the Yankees offseason in the Mets thread, it's time to start an offseason thread.

 

Some links to start it off:

MLBTR's top 50 FA predictions - for what it's worth, the Yankees are predicted to get Jason Heyward (10/200), Ben Zobrist (3/51), and resign Chris B. Young (2/12).  

 

MLBTR Yankees Offseason Outlook

 

The top stories from last week's opening of FA per RAB (via fan confidence poll) - the Yankees have 4 FAs now, Young, Stephen Drew, Andrew Bailey, and Chris Capuano.  Also, Brendan Ryan opted into his $1MM option, which is hardly surprising.  I could see the Yankees signing Young...and I suspect Drew is their desperation 2B option...but the rest I'd rather not see back.

 

In my opinion...the Heyward free agency would be the key for the offseason, and depending on how that plays out the rest of the dominos will fall.  If the Yankees sign Heyward, they're gonna have a logjam at the outfield positions that will require a trade OR someone (read: Beltran) is going to have to take a bench role (which will lead to Young signing elsewhere).  Some combination of Gardner/Miller/Refsnyder/Pirela/minor leaguers will probably be traded for SP reinforcements.

 

In this scenario, I'd expect the team to look like this:

 

C: McCann, Murphy

1B: Tex, Bird

2B: 2 of Ackley/Refsnyder/Pirela

3B: Headley

SS: Gregorius, Ryan

OF: Heyward, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran

DH: Rodriguez

 

SP: 

Severino

Tanaka

Pineda

Evoldi

Sabathia/Nova

 

RP: 

Betances

Miller

Warren

Wilson

Sabathia/Nova as long man

Bryan Mitchell

 

If Bird has options, he may be up and down to the Triple A squad if they need bullpen depth.  Ryan could also be outrighted, but I don't think there's anyone else on the major league level that can play short if Gregorius needs a break. 

 

A lot of this depends on CC's rehab as well, and whether he'll be part of the team in 2016 and beyond.  If Sabathia steps away from baseball, then Nova becomes the current starter #5 and Shreve is the last bullpen spot, with Mitchell the long man.  I fully expect Mitchell to also ride the Triple A express if he has options and they need to cycle in bullpen guys.

 

If any minor leaguers are traded, I'd suspect Sanchez might be the first one out of town.

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great write-up, basically everything i would have wanted to touch on.

 

Heyward is the going to be the best hitting FA signing until Harper in three years.  I would love if they threw money at Heyward (he's only 26!).  of course, like you said, we'd then have a logjam.  arguably the only movable player the Yankees have is Garnder, and that is certainly an option.  otherwise, Beltran will have to settle for a PH role.

 

The other big question mark (for the best I guess) is this scenario at first base.  Are we really going to sit Bird the whole year?  At his age, that has to stint his growth.  The better option would be to send him down to play everyday, but that sucks too.  Tex isn't EXTREMELY unmovable, just has that no-trade clause.  Teams may actually pay solid for a great-fielding 1B that can absolutely rake the ball.

 

I still think SP is an area of need (although we have talent, they are inconsistent and wayyyy too often injured)

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great write-up, basically everything i would have wanted to touch on.

 

Heyward is the going to be the best hitting FA signing until Harper in three years.  I would love if they threw money at Heyward (he's only 26!).  of course, like you said, we'd then have a logjam.  arguably the only movable player the Yankees have is Garnder, and that is certainly an option.  otherwise, Beltran will have to settle for a PH role.

 

The other big question mark (for the best I guess) is this scenario at first base.  Are we really going to sit Bird the whole year?  At his age, that has to stint his growth.  The better option would be to send him down to play everyday, but that sucks too.  Tex isn't EXTREMELY unmovable, just has that no-trade clause.  Teams may actually pay solid for a great-fielding 1B that can absolutely rake the ball.

 

I still think SP is an area of need (although we have talent, they are inconsistent and wayyyy too often injured)

 

Agree on SP, you can never have too much SP depth.  

 

I wouldn't let the logjam of playing time hold up a possible Heyward signing if that's where the Yankees are going.  Beltran is off the books at his current deal in 2016, and would have to settle for an expensive bench player contract after that, esp since he struggles to field.  After this deal, he can either retire or try and continue his career like Victor Martinez - DH only in the AL, throw him in right for NL matchups and pray the opponent can't hit it to him.

 

As to Bird, I think the 1B job will be slowly ceded to him, either by force or by nature of Tex's fragility.  Tex can still play, and may hold off the younger Bird in spring training.  But as the season wears on, if either Tex gets hurt, Tex fails to produce, or the Yankees fall out of playoff contention, I expect Bird to be given the opportunity to run with this job.

 

EDIT: Some potential Yankee news - the Hiroshima Carp are finally expected to post Kenta Maeda.  Just because he's only 27, he'd probably jump to the top levels of the FA class of pitchers.  The Yankees had some interest last year (when he was expected to fetch a 6/120 at age 26), and I'd expect them to due their diligence on Maeda again this year too.

Edited by Hi, I'm VALUE!

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Agree on SP, you can never have too much SP depth.  

 

I wouldn't let the logjam of playing time hold up a possible Heyward signing if that's where the Yankees are going.  Beltran is off the books at his current deal in 2016, and would have to settle for an expensive bench player contract after that, esp since he struggles to field.  After this deal, he can either retire or try and continue his career like Victor Martinez - DH only in the AL, throw him in right for NL matchups and pray the opponent can't hit it to him.

 

As to Bird, I think the 1B job will be slowly ceded to him, either by force or by nature of Tex's fragility.  Tex can still play, and may hold off the younger Bird in spring training.  But as the season wears on, if either Tex gets hurt, Tex fails to produce, or the Yankees fall out of playoff contention, I expect Bird to be given the opportunity to run with this job.

 

EDIT: Some potential Yankee news - the Hiroshima Carp are finally expected to post Kenta Maeda.  Just because he's only 27, he'd probably jump to the top levels of the FA class of pitchers.  The Yankees had some interest last year (when he was expected to fetch a 6/120 at age 26), and I'd expect them to due their diligence on Maeda again this year too.

o i definitely agree that i would not let a logjam in the outfield prevent a Heyward signing.. just with how the Yanks have been true about this luxury tax promise, I would be a little surprise if they let Beltran's contract just waste away... and sign a huge contract for Heyward, especially before our other huge contracts come off the books.

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Padres acquire Jose Pirela from Yankees for minor leaguer Ronald Herrera

 

Erm...okay?  

 

Herrera seems to have had a successful age 20 season, going from A+ to AA ball this year even though his ML numbers are not overwhelmingly good.  

 

I guess Pirela lost the 2B job already.  Unless the Yanks get Zobrist or another FA 2B, not much chance of trading Refsnyder now.

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the Pirela trade is whatever, the guy wasn't gonna help this organization.  

 

Dealing away Murphy makes too much sense.  I do like him and think he will be a solid player, but hes obviously blocked my McCann... and you knew Sanchez was going to get an opportunity.  

 

But for Aaron Hicks?  I don't know how to interpret the return.  On one hand, we get a young player who can run the bases and can be an exceptional outfielder... which is where my questions arise- what on earth is our outfield going to look like next year? I am very hopeful we land Heyward this year and, although I do not think adding Hicks will erase that, it does mean that a lot more will have to happen.

 

Is Gardy going to be traded? Beltran is probably just going to sit next year, to be honest.. my bet is that its either going to be

 

Gardner, Ellsbury, Hicks

or.. 

Hicks, Ellsbury, and Heyward.

 

A lot of questions here, but could make for an exciting offseason

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Yankees discussing a Gardner for Castro swap.

 

Apparently Castro would take over 2B full-time with Didi as the SS.  

 

Also important to note that this would save the Yankees $6 million in payroll, as Starlin's contract is 4/38 while Gardner is 3/38.

 

If that happens, that would appear to make the following lineup for 2016 as:

 

C: McCann

1B: Texeira/Bird

2B: Castro

SS: Gregorius

3B: Headley

LF: Hicks

CF: Ellsbury

RF: Beltran
DH: A-Rod

 

Bench: Ackley, Ryan, Romnie/Sanchez, and plus-1.

 

I still think the Yankees should go for Heyward, just because a 7 year deal puts him at 32 at the deal's end, and he will be the youngest good position player to come to free agency for a while.  Hell, I'd be OK with a 7 year deal with a 4th year out clause, so he can get one more big payday if he wants it (and hopefully someone else will pay).  Replace Beltran with Heyward in that lineup, and you have a damn good defensive outfield that may be able to hit.  Additionally, if/when Ellsbury gets hurt, you have a ready-made outfielder in Beltran and can slide Heyward to CF.  

 

EDIT: So apparently the talks are now dead, because a Gardner trade now requires pitching to come back.  Big fat NOPE on this one.

Edited by Hi, I'm VALUE!

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I wouldn't do that. I want to see Refsnyder at 2nd platoon with Ackley. Let's find out about Refsnyder unless they really believe he can convert to RF. Blah. 

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Haven't had the chance to sit down and write down my thoughts yet on this offseason. I'll just ramble for a bit.

 

I expect Gardner's name to be brought up in a ton of rumors, from the silly to plausible. I don't think Cashman trades him unless he gets an offer he can't refuse. Same with Miller.

 

If they do move Gardner, I hope they sign Heyward. A rare 26 year old free agent whose already been producing at well above average levels for years. Just makes too much sense. I get that they don't have money coming off the books until next year, but given that weak free agent class, might as well spend it early on a guy like Heyward.

 

So far I like Cashman's trades. I was never a Pirela fan and Herrera is a decent enough prospect to take a chance on. I loved John Ryan Murphy but with the re-emergence of Gary Sanchez, it was smart to move Muprhy at this point in time. Hicks is a nice, young Chris Young replacement who still may have some upside at age 26.

 

I'm not worried about the playing time situation for Bird. I'm sure Teixeira and A-Rod will miss enough time to fit Bird in.

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Red Sox sign Chris B Young - 2/13.5.  Good for him to get that kind of cash, even if it's from Boston.  We'll miss him for sure unless we sign someone like Heyward.

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Young's Yankee numbers were a quantum leap over what he did with the A's and the Mets...and also a good bit better than his overall D'Backs numbers.  Red Sox better hope he doesn't turn back into the Mets/A's version...that guy was brutal. 

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...and now the Sox sign David Price.  7/217 with an opt-out after 3.  Bad news for the Yankees in the short term, but it's easily possible to see that contract becoming an albatross at the tail end if he opts in.

 

Between this, Kimbrel, and Young, it appears the Sox are swinging for the fences in Big Papi's last season.  Could be a hard-luck year for the Yankees again if they don't make any kind of moves and/or guys like A-Rod and Tex fail to produce.

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Yankees non-tender Domingo German, the throw-in prospect on the Eovaldi trade.  He blew out his elbow last spring so he hasn't pitched for the Yanks all that much.  He may boomerang back 

 

All other arb-eligible players were tendered contracts.

 

In a related note, I wonder if the non-tender of German means that the Yankees are looking at picking someone in this year's Rule 5?  I wonder if guys like 2B TJ Rivera and/or RP Reymin Guduan would make some level of sense for the Yankees?  Rivera (a Mets guy) is a 2B/SS type who could spell innings for Didi or (insert starting 2B here).  His average is probably a bit inflated from the Triple A Mets affiliate in the PCL (lifetime .318, last two years of .338), and he's assuredly not a power hitter, but he can play defense all over the infield and hit for contact and on base.  Guduan is a 100 mph fastball/slider reliever with control issues.

 

Also, I expect the Yankees to be in on this guy from Cuba when he is allowed to sign. 

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I am just gonna wait patiently and see what they do. Take your time Cash.

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Winter meetings coming up, Yankees names keep coming up in rumors, which is to be expected. The consensus is that they're looking for young, cost/year controlled pitching.. Which I'm all for.

Looks like Atl will be asking too much for Shelby Miller,but he would be ideal.

I'd be very surprised if our Miller gets traded, but I think there's a decent shot to trade Gardner.

I would love it if we could get our hands on one of those pitchers from Cleveland..

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Yankees deal Warren and a player to be named (might actually be Brendan Ryan) to the Cubs for Starlin Castro.

I know Warren was a reliable arm out of the bullpen, but I am a fan of this trade.

First of all, Warren has expressed multiple times that he wants to be a starter, and I just don't see how he can do that in NY.

We get a solid young 2B to play next to Didi. I know Castro didn't have a great year but he showed what he can do in 2014 and I think he has a bunch of potential

You gotta expect that Refs is going to get traded. Mgmt does not see something in him.

Next on the list is starting pitching.. And then I'd like to see a move to solidify the bullpen also

Edited by Onddeck

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My initial reaction to this trade was "meh". I'm not really a big believer in Castro given how inconsistent he's been in his career. The highs are good, the lows are abysmal. Plus, I appreciated the versatility and value that Warren was able to bring. While Warren is cheaper and provides similar, if not greater value, I do understand why the Yankees are taking a chance on Castro.

1. He fits into the youth movement as 2016 will be his age 26 season.
2. By all accounts, he seems to have excelled since moving to 2B during last season on both sides of the ball. We'll find out how that plays out over the course of a full season but there may be some upside there.
3. Maybe the change of scenery with some new coaching by Cockrell and Thames can help him get back to his 2010-12 and 2014 offensive production.
4. He's signed thru 2019 at a pretty fair value per year. Option for 2020. If he can be an average 2B during that time, it's an affordable deal.

Edited by thefiestygoat

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IMO, This is a good move, (hate losing Warren but not going to get something for nothing) but I hope it's not "it".  There's still a huge hole for a frontline starter that has yet to be filled (and may not be this offseason, all things considered). There's also the matter of a backup shortstop - I'm guessing Castro will kick over to SS when Didi needs a break with Ackley coming in for 2B, and Ackley straight subs for Castro when he needs a break, but if Castro gets hurt, I'm not sure who takes that spot (Kozma?)

 

One of the best benefits of this, that backup shortstop notwithstanding, is that there's now an empty spot on the 25-man roster for someone to join, and whether it's a 7th bullpen member of another infielder, there's options to be had here.

 

As an aside, I tend to think Nova is a goner the more and more I look at roster construction.  I'd say Sabathia, but CC is practically untradable with 2/50 (assuming the option vests, 1/30 if he somehow ends the year on the DL) left on his deal. 

 

The roster looks something like this for now assuming the trade is officially consummated.

 

C: McCann, one of Romnie/Sanchez

1B: Tex, Bird

2B: Castro, Ackley, and Refsnyder (who is unlikely to stick in the majors methinks).

3B: Headley

SS: Gregorius

OF: Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran

DH: Rodriguez

 

SP: 

Severino

Tanaka

Pineda

Eovaldi

Sabathia/Nova

 

RP: 

Betances

Miller

Wilson

Sabathia/Nova

2 of Mitchell/Shreve/Pazos/Pinder

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IMO, This is a good move, (hate losing Warren but not going to get something for nothing) but I hope it's not "it".  There's still a huge hole for a frontline starter that has yet to be filled (and may not be this offseason, all things considered). There's also the matter of a backup shortstop - I'm guessing Castro will kick over to SS when Didi needs a break with Ackley coming in for 2B, and Ackley straight subs for Castro when he needs a break, but if Castro gets hurt, I'm not sure who takes that spot (Kozma?)

 

One of the best benefits of this, that backup shortstop notwithstanding, is that there's now an empty spot on the 25-man roster for someone to join, and whether it's a 7th bullpen member of another infielder, there's options to be had here.

 

As an aside, I tend to think Nova is a goner the more and more I look at roster construction.  I'd say Sabathia, but CC is practically untradable with 2/50 (assuming the option vests, 1/30 if he somehow ends the year on the DL) left on his deal. 

 

The roster looks something like this for now assuming the trade is officially consummated.

 

C: McCann, one of Romnie/Sanchez

1B: Tex, Bird

2B: Castro, Ackley, and Refsnyder (who is unlikely to stick in the majors methinks).

3B: Headley

SS: Gregorius

OF: Hicks, Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran

DH: Rodriguez

 

SP: 

Severino

Tanaka

Pineda

Eovaldi

Sabathia/Nova

 

RP: 

Betances

Miller

Wilson

Sabathia/Nova

2 of Mitchell/Shreve/Pazos/Pinder

a backup 3B isn't a terrible idea with the last roster spot btw..

 

but i agree, i hope we're not done.. i think we have a huge hole that needs filled as far as SP goes, and would like to add another arm in the bullpen

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Technically Ackley can play 3B, which makes me think he's definitely making the team as of now regardless of anything he's done or not done in Seattle.  But the point may be valid.

 

Humorously the official Yankees site lists Castro as backup and Rodriguez as 2nd backup, but we all know how little Rodriguez will play at 3rd next year.

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Yankees trade Justin Wilson for 2 SP prospects. I like this move since they are selling high on Wilson and relievers are the most volatile year to year. They get back 23 year old Luis Cessa and 24 year old Chad Green. Both guys where in MLB.com's Top 30 Tigers prospects.

Cessa is a former Mets prospect that went over to Detroit in the Cespedes deal. Judging by his stats, he's got some nice K/BB rates at all levels of the minors. He's already had 12 AAA starts and doesn't seem that far off from contributing at the major league level. Seems like a nice young, arm to get in return for a reliever. I like it.

Green has only reached AA but has some decent stats. Doesn't seem to offer as much upside as Cessa but is an interesting arm.

I'm not too worried about losing Wilson. The Yankees have quite a few MLB ready relievers in AAA ready to step up. There seems to be some belief out there that the Yankees may end up flipping Cessa and/or Green. We'll see what happens.

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Technically Ackley can play 3B, which makes me think he's definitely making the team as of now regardless of anything he's done or not done in Seattle. But the point may be valid.

Humorously the official Yankees site lists Castro as backup and Rodriguez as 2nd backup, but we all know how little Rodriguez will play at 3rd next year.

yea but it's been said that Ackleys arm is shot after he had TJS.. He might not be able to play 3B.

I was a fan of the Castro trade, but am slightly confused by the dealing of Wilson. I had said that trading away Warren was fine because we have guys like Wilson.. Now we gotta hope Lindgren, etc can step up

I saw one of those prospects posted like an 8+ ERA last year in the minors... Woof.. The trade just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. My guess is that Cash is going to flip at least one of those guys. I still trust him to send out a solid bullpen in 2016

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