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New York Mets 2016 Season Thread


Colorado Rockies 1976

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The best we can hope for this team's collective defense is average at best.  This is a scary bunch.  

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16 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

For once the predictable move happened

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/tejada-added-to-mix-at-shortstop-for-cards/article_7a6c1e7b-b467-5410-ad8a-2059b6b97e07.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

We forget sometimes with Matz he's not actually as proven as the other big three and generally gets put on that level because of potential and he had a handful of fine regular season starts.  Not that there's a reason to worry, I'm just glad he actually is the #4 at the moment.

fwiw the Yankees also offered Tejada a contract. Figures they would try to troll us there...

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1 hour ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Nice moment for Dilson Herrera today in WBC qualifying, hitting a tie-breaking HR in the bottom of the eighth inning to give Colombia a win that got them into the WBC.

Good for Dilson (though the WBC overall can just disappear for all I care) I'll say this about Herrera, the ball jumps off his bat astonishingly well for a guy who's listed at 5'10, 150, which is featherweight status in the MLB. The fact that he's already hit 6 MLB HR's in only 140 something AB's as a baby is pretty impressive. He somehow drives the ball very well and if he ever "gets it", could legit hit double digit home runs every year.

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This is going to be a weird year for Herrera...he'll put up very gaudy AAA numbers, because that's what guys like him do in the PCL.  As we know, trying to evaluate PCL players strictly off their numbers is damned near impossible. 

Just hope he's ready to go in 2017...I think Walker is here for 2016 only (and everything kind of worked out right, as far as Walker fitting into 2016:  Mets didn't want to pay Murph, and they didn't want to pay Niese, and they probably don't think Herrera is quite ready to be the everyday second baseman this year, so they killed a lot of birds with the Niese-for-Walker trade stone).  I don't think the Mets can really afford Herrera struggling to adjust in 2017...they need him to come right up and produce. 

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Don't think I've seen it brought up here, but deGrom has been sitting 91-93 mph this spring (including today). I know he's had some back stiffness issues, which it appeared he was over, but that's a bit concerning for a guy who averaged 95 mph on his fastball last season. Something to watch when the games start to count...

 

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6 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

Don't think I've seen it brought up here, but deGrom has been sitting 91-93 mph this spring (including today). I know he's had some back stiffness issues, which it appeared he was over, but that's a bit concerning for a guy who averaged 95 mph on his fastball last season. Something to watch when the games start to count...

 

Yeah...easy to forget that he's not really a "kid kid"...he'll already be 28 in June...not old by any stretch of course.  But we know how it goes with pitchers...

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9 minutes ago, '7' said:

I would guess deGrom is just holding back a bit because it's spring training. Trying to save the quality bullets for the real games. Don't most pitchers pretty much take it easy and experiment in ST? 

I'm definitely not worried about him...like nmig said, just something to watch when the games count.  It's just never truly easy to feel good about arms these days...

The good thing is that none of these guys came into spring training having to impress to win a job...even Matz, despite not having many major-league innings under his belt, came into spring training with a job to lose.  So yeah, good chance they're not as amped up as they might have been otherwise. 

I know Colon stunk last spring too, but man that guy scares me.  It just always feels like it's going to end so abruptly for him...where those 8-10 ugly outings he has suddenly become the norm, and he's forced to call it quits after six starts where he's 0-5 with an ERA in double-digits.  That wouldn't bother me so much if there was someone else to feel good about if that were to happen...but there isn't, really...no one obvious, anyway.

Matt Bowman has been awful in four appearances for the Cardinals:  6 IP, 13 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 2.50 WHIP.  Can't see him making the Cards unless he somehow turns it around VERY fast.  Now it's just a question of do the Mets want to cough up $25k to get him back if the Cards offer him back to the Mets?  It's a tough call...$25k is chump change (even for this franchise) and the Mets are a little short on arms, but Bowman was so bad for so much of the season last year, and I can't see it getting any better for him if he's in the PCL for another year.  I'm more curious to see how they handle this...it seems inevitable that he's not going to make the Cardinals at this point.

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And one thing the Mets really aren't doing much of this spring:  hitting for any power.  Coming into today's game, they're hitting .276 with a .359 OB%, but are second-to-last in the NL in slugging (.380) and have only hit 9 home runs as a team. 

It's spring and we know how the Mets completely tore it up in Florida last year (before immediately disappearing once they went north), so I don't want to make a huge deal out of it.  But with the general lack of speed and David Wright not likely to contribute much, this team has to hit some dingers if they're going to score a decent amount of runs.

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1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

 

I know Colon stunk last spring too, but man that guy scares me.  It just always feels like it's going to end so abruptly for him...where those 8-10 ugly outings he has suddenly become the norm, and he's forced to call it quits after six starts where he's 0-5 with an ERA in double-digits.  That wouldn't bother me so much if there was someone else to feel good about if that were to happen...but there isn't, really...no one obvious, anyway.

Well, Zack Wheeler immediately comes to mind. Sure, he won't be ready in your hypothetical 6-awful-starts scenario, but he's an option to really look forward to around midseason, especially when we'll be (hopefully) counting on him to be no more than our #5. 

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The only reason my concern isn't zero for deGrom is the back issues he had earlier in the Spring.  But he's claiming there's no problem and it IS still Spring Training so I'll reserve judgement until he finishes April still throwing low 90's

Jacob deGrom said he is unconcerned about velocity. Noted he feels fine, was pitching on short rest and is getting outs.

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Just now, nmigliore said:

Well, Zack Wheeler immediately comes to mind. Sure, he won't be ready in your hypothetical 6-awful-starts scenario, but he's an option to really look forward to around midseason, especially when we'll be (hopefully) counting on him to be no more than our #5. 

Sure, but Wheeler won't be ready until July...and then, who knows, really...even at his best, he had some warts (excessive foul balls against, high pitch counts, concentration issues).  I was talking about someone immediate in case Colon suddenly has nothing left...someone who'd have to bridge the gap from mid-May to July. 

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2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Sure, but Wheeler won't be ready until July...and then, who knows, really...even at his best, he had some warts (excessive foul balls against, high pitch counts, concentration issues).  I was talking about someone immediate in case Colon suddenly has nothing left...someone who'd have to bridge the gap from mid-May to July. 

It's a short sample size late last year but right now I'd be okay with Verrett being that guy.

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Just now, NJDevs4978 said:

It's a short sample size late last year but right now I'd be okay with Verrett being that guy.

I'd probably feel better with him than anyone else currently in the system as a short-term solution.  I've just about given up on Montero. 

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Sure, but Wheeler won't be ready until July...and then, who knows, really...even at his best, he had some warts (excessive foul balls against, high pitch counts, concentration issues).  I was talking about someone immediate in case Colon suddenly has nothing left...someone who'd have to bridge the gap from mid-May to July. 

That sounds like a good description of John Maine back when he was decent. Though Wheeler has incredible stuff, if he's at 110 laborious pitches in the 5th...he's not going to last long at this level. He'll get hurt again and blow out the pen.

Remember some scouts pegged him as a guy who will eventually be a good reliever. His control/wildness is a huge issue.

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He did make progress (he got very lucky after his call-up, as has been discussed many times), and had some impressive stretches in his first full season.  But his performance hasn't measured up to his promise...yet.  He definitely needs to improve his control and efficiency...right now he reminds me of a right-handed Al Leiter.  Leiter obviously had some good seasons, but I'd like to think Wheeler will be better than that.  

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NYP's Mike Vaccaro wrote a pretty good article about deGrom today...basically said that deGrom was a little annoyed about questions regarding his velocity, and deGrom said his job is to collect outs, which he did yesterday.  It reminds me a little of Gooden...he struck out 276 in 218 IP in his rookie year (he never came close to that rate again...as a matter of fact, he never again averaged a strikeout per inning after that, even in '85).  After his first season, he said it didn't matter what he did, even if he pitched a two-hit shutout and got a hit or two (he was a fine hitting pitcher), he'd hear questions from the media like "Great game today, but you only struck out six.  Were you feeling OK out there?" 

Of course, we know that "the" Gooden that everyone remembers fondly was gone early on in the '86 season, after he started that season 5-0 with a 1.04 ERA, when he was just 21 years old...from that point on for the rest of '86 regular season, his ERA was 3.32 and something had clearly changed, and his "Something just doesn't feel right" performances were much more representative of the pitcher that he would become for the rest of his Mets tenure.  He would only make one more All-Star appearance after 1986 (in 88).  From 1987-93, he was still pretty good (and as both he has stated and his FIP show, he was definitely not helped by his fielders at all, as many of his teams from that stretch were horrendous defensively), but that's all he was...pretty good...a bit above average, but definitely no longer the dominator he was in his first two seasons.  Thanks to a lot of run support, he was still putting up terrific won-lost records for the first five years of that 87-93 stretch (74-34) before the God-awful Jeff Torborg seasons killed that aspect of his stats (22-28 in those two years, despite Gooden performing at the about the same level as he did for much of that 7-season sample).

Obviously we need to see deGrom pitch in the regular season before worrying too much about him, and with the spring sample sizes only getting smaller with all of the arm-babying it's really hard to get a read on this stuff...but would it surprise me that much if we start seeing a 90%-of-what-he-was deGrom sooner than later?  Not really.  We just have to remember that a pitcher like that can still be damned good, and can still win a lot of games if properly supported.  I just hope this defense doesn't kill these guys too much...the late 80s-early 90s Mets seemed to treat team defense like it was completely inconsequential (they were all about getting bats in the lineup), and this team seems to have the same mentality. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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18 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

It's a short sample size late last year but right now I'd be okay with Verrett being that guy.

Yeah, he'd definitely be the guy who'd step in, and I think he'd be fine to bridge the gap to Wheeler's return. You're only counting on him as your #5 starter, and for a few months at that; he's not going to make or break our season. An injury to one of the other 4 starters, though, could do serious damage.

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Yeah, the Mets might be able to cover for Colon if he's finished, but if any of the other four get hurt long-term, yeah, they're in serious trouble.  After Verrett, you've got Montero, Lugo, possibly Bowman if he's brought back, maybe Gilmartin...just not much depth at the moment.   

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I agree to a point Has, but I think this team really needs these guys to stay healthy.  I think this team will be about middle-of-the-pack in runs scored (Wright is really going to hurt them this year in that regard when he's in the lineup...more and more I see him being abysmal), say 7th-10th in the NL.  Not saying they can't win being ranked there...but they'll need that rotation to be healthy and effective.  I don't think the offense is built to cover up for pitching injuries or struggles.

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Another not-strong outing for Matz, though he did bounce back after a five-run second inning...against a team that hasn't been hitting at all this spring.  Not panicking with him, but I think we need to remind ourselves that he may not enjoy the same immediate success that Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard all did.  Matz may develop more conventionally...with the growing pains and inconsistency that comes with the territory.  I'm dialing back my expectations for him in 2016...not saying he's going to be lousy, just that he's a work-in-progress who's learning and is bound to have some tough outings.

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2 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

I think I agree, CR. I could see Matz's season being similar to Wheeler's 2014 with less walks at the expense of less strikeouts.

Funny, 2014 Wheeler was actually who I was thinking of.  I could see Matz having a .500ish-type season with an ERA somewhere in the upper-3.00s, for the basics.  We've just gotten so used to young arms (when healthy) coming right up and throwing well that we kind of think that will keep happening...Matz having some success last season in a limited sample at the major-league level fed into that somewhat, but I just have a hunch 2016 is not going to be an easy transition to being a full-season major leaguer for Matz. 

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