New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

['7']

15 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Eh this guy for the Braves looks like he doesn't belong in the big leagues, it reminds me of the scrub we battered around in the John Maine near no-hitter.  

And they have tweaked the dimensions at Citi multiple times to the point where it's pretty much neutral as opposed to the hitter graveyard it was several years ago.

No he does not, and to be honest after the Braves rubbed our face in the dirt seemingly forever I have no mercy with them. NONE ;-)

Maybe I'm a bit of a conspiracy theorist, but I just think...eyeball test only, that balls are just exploding off the bats a little more than usual. I still remember back in 2009 I think Chipper Jones (who else) murdered a ball to left center...a ball that he claimed was the hardest he hit in years, and it ended up a fly out. And as Jones jogged off the field Wright teased him "nice ballpark eh" or something like that.

[NJDevs4978]

On 5/1/2016 at 3:02 PM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Yet another "not deep" effort from a Mets starting pitcher.  They've gotten away with it for now, but this is getting to be ridiculous.  Stop making the bullpen account for 9+ outs seemingly every game.  They're going to wear down.

Enter Big Bartolo

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

32 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Enter Big Bartolo

Finally...it's funny, I had a feeling it would be him that would finally do it, but I thought something more along the lines of 7-8 innings, 2-4 runs...not 8 scoreless.  

But of course TC then has to being Familia right in, as though it was a save situation.  I would've given Colon at least one batter in the ninth.  And not gone to Familia.  

[NJDevs4978]

6 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Finally...it's funny, I had a feeling it would be him that would finally do it, but I thought something more along the lines of 7-8 innings, 2-4 runs...not 8 scoreless.  

But of course TC then has to being Familia right in, as though it was a save situation.  I would've given Colon at least one batter in the ninth.  And not gone to Familia.  

I get it from the standpoint of his turn came up in the 8th, but by the same token it seemed that they were angling to get him out anyway.  It's not like he's one of these younger guys that need to be monitored, he's got a rubber arm lol

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Another pretty good "by the box score" outing for Ynoa for Vegas last night.  30.2 IP, 22 H, 7 ER, 10 BB and 17 K to go with a 2.05 ERA in 5 starts.  Still seems like a matter of time before it starts to go south with him, based on the sabes. 

Vegas SS Cecchini is suddenly red-hot with the bat...10-for-his-last-17, to propel his BA up to .278 and his OB% to .381.  The issues with him of course remain his fielding (4 errors) and lack of power (unspectacular career minor-league slash line of .274/.342/.381). 

As for the projected Met SS of the future Amed Rosario...so far so good in A+:  24 GP, 100 AB, 11 R, 31 H, 3 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 5-for-7 in stolen base attempts, .310/.343/.530 slash.  He has made four errors, but another 2-3 weeks of this and it's hard to imagine that he'll be in A+ for much longer. 

9 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

I get it from the standpoint of his turn came up in the 8th, but by the same token it seemed that they were angling to get him out anyway.  It's not like he's one of these younger guys that need to be monitored, he's got a rubber arm lol

It's not like guys like him get lots of chances to put the finishing touches on a whole lot of complete-game shutouts, and he was only at 99 relatively stress-free pitches through 8 IP.  Why not give him a shot there? 

As far as Familia goes, you can make the argument that last night wasn't that big of a deal...it was only his second appearance since 4/26, and he hasn't really been throwing too many in-game pitches as of late...in his last six appearances (one inning each), he's thrown 82 pitches (allowed 5 hits and no walks, K-ing 4)...not going to get much lower than that.  Still feels like TC goes the "old faithful" route more than he should. 

And in "Say what?" news...the guy who's currently fourth in OB+SLG at .851 on the Mets is...David Wright.  Better than Granderson (.805), Cabrera (.777) and Duda (.776).  He leads the team in walks, with 15 (in 20 GP).  Of course, as always seems to be the case with Wright, it doesn't FEEL like he's been as good as that number would suggest (partly due to his high K rate)...as one would expect, given the seemingly constant failings in the clutch, he's rocking a 1.218 OB+SLG with no one on (9 out of 10 of his extra-base hits have come with the bases empty, including all three of his home runs).  With runners on, the OB+SLG drops to .477, and with RISP, it's .618 (.581 with RISP and 2 out).  If he could ever start to hit more often in key spots...

Mets have out-homered opponents 34-11 and out-walked them 84-59...two knocks on the pitching staff so far have been the starters mostly pitching like Zack Wheeler (high pitch counts by the 5th-6th innings) and the somewhat high BAA (.258).  It will be interesting to see when things start to even out for the Cubs and Nationals...right now the Cubs have a .199 BAA, and the Nats have a .211 BAA.  Neither is sustainable (though the Cubs did lead the NL with a .233 BAA last season)...over the past five seasons, no one has finished the season with anything lower than .232, and not many teams have managed to be under .240...if anything, I expect the Mets .258 BAA to come down a bit.   

[nmigliore]

Re: Wright - Obviously the strikeouts will need to come down -- Wright has always been a high BABIP hitter, which makes his strikeouts more palatable than your average guy -- but he's not going to sustain his current rate of .391. I also have some doubts that he'll maintain a .200+ ISO. But for a month plus into the season, you have to be pleased with his overall numbers (his OPS sits in the top third of MLB at his position) especially given the preseason expectations. 

The Nats have definitely gotten some breaks, re: their pitching. Their ERA-FIP differential is 2nd highest in MLB, meaning they've outperformed their FIP more than every team in baseball besides the Rangers. Their ERA-xFIP differential is even wider (by 1.32 runs). Strasburg has been fantastic but guys like Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross -- who is rocking a 0.79 ERA despite a 5.56 K/9 -- are due for some regression.

Edited May 3, 2016 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Re:  Wright...I would expect this version to be somewhere right around .800 in OB+SLG (maybe a bit below).  I pointed out his OB+SLG because I find it so surprising, not because I think it will continue.  I could see him hitting around .250-.260 (as much faith as I don't have in him, I can't see it getting <.240 ugly), but he's definitely not going to draw walks at this same rate (his current .383 OB% is obviously pumping up his OB+SLG). 

I don't think it's possible to have a team ERA of 2.21 over a 25-game stretch without getting some good fortune (or having nothing but top-of-the-line arms throughout one's staff)...sure, the stars can align and guys can all be that hot at the same time, but staffs with season ERAs under 3.00 are pretty rare.  So yeah, not surprised that the sabes would bear that out and reaffirm that some staff-wide regression is coming.

Edited May 3, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

Another thing we forget about Wright is he just hasn't played a lot of baseball in the last year. Maybe 130 or so AB's post injury last year and not a lot of Spring Training this year.

[nmigliore]

26 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Re:  Wright...I would expect this version to be somewhere right around .800 in OB+SLG (maybe a bit below).

Which would be fine; among MLB 3B with at least 400 PA last season, only nine had an OPS equal to or greater than .800 and only five did the year prior. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 minute ago, nmigliore said:

Which would be fine; among MLB 3B with at least 400 PA last season, only nine had an OPS equal to or greater than .800 and only five did the year prior. 

I would take that...as long as there are less bad throws in the field and less of a feeling that an almost automatic strikeout is coming with men on base.  I'm probably setting the bar too high for Wright...he could just easily be the .700ish guy he was in 2014. 

['7']

Matt Harvey is expected to get intravenous fluids before his Tuesday start against the Braves. Harvey was dealing with an illness on Monday night. He supposedly has improved since then.

['7']

0 hits through 4 against this scrub Wisler. Bats need to wake up here.

['7']

An opposite field HR to Mallex Smith? Sheesh. Only thing worse is giving one up to Rafael Belliard or Otis Nixon.

['7']

Not the outing we needed from Matt against this bullcrap AA lineup. Though yea...guess he's feeling the effects of the flu or whatever.

[NJDevs4978]

Not that I expected to go 19-0...but it'd be nice if the bats hadn't completely shut down again after the first inning last night.

People wanted Plawecki to take Travis's job, well that noodle bat isn't doing him any favors.

['7']

Mallex Babe DiMaggio Smith ends Harvey's night.

Maybe he's depressed the Rags are elimimated or that the Yankees are in last place.

['7']

We really need a catcher who can throw, because word has gotten around and we're being exploited. 

And Bastardo walks Francoeur. Man is this game some sort of comedy.

Edited May 4, 2016 by '7'

[NJDevs4978]

1 hour ago, '7' said:

Not the outing we needed from Matt against this bullcrap AA lineup. Though yea...guess he's feeling the effects of the flu or whatever.

You're probably right but the carping's getting louder with each mediocre start where he craps out in the middle innings.  At this point it won't be long before Bora$ points the finger at the Mets pitching him 210+ innings last year.

Honestly I'm starting to think he lost some of his swagger after the infamous 9th inning in the WS.

Edited May 4, 2016 by NJDevs4978

[NJDevs4978]

 

['7']

fwiw...would it kill anybody playing the Phillies or Nationals to try? At least a little bit? Or is there an MLB wide conspiracy to make sure the Mets don't win the NL East this year. Nobody playing Wash or Philly has a pulse.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 hours ago, '7' said:

fwiw...would it kill anybody playing the Phillies or Nationals to try? At least a little bit? Or is there an MLB wide conspiracy to make sure the Mets don't win the NL East this year. Nobody playing Wash or Philly has a pulse.

I've given Philly my fair share of kudos for their good early start, but unless their offense improves dramatically, it's only a matter of time before this starts going the other way.  They're averaging just over 3 runs per game, and most of their other offensive numbers are pretty awful.  They have a -22 run differential...that's really hard for a team that's five games over .500 to do...they're also 9-2 in one-run games (more good fortune that seems destined to start going against the Phils in time).  Like I've said, maybe they flirt with 80 wins this season, but I don't think the NL East has become a three-team race by any stretch. 

And the Royals had a nice comeback against the Nats last night, so there's that at least. 

10 hours ago, '7' said:

We really need a catcher who can throw, because word has gotten around and we're being exploited. 

And Bastardo walks Francoeur. Man is this game some sort of comedy.

I get the feeling if Plaw doesn't show himself to be capable of being an everyday catcher (he's getting as good of an opportunity as he's going to get), Sandy might actually consider looking outside the organization.  Seems shocking in that it wasn't so long ago that it seemed like the Mets had killer depth at the position, but TDA can't stay on the damned field (and this has happened too often...as we know with Mike Cammalleri, some guys just aren't durable) and is lousy defensively, and Plaw is just too much of a question mark for a team trying to win a championship.  I'll be the first to admit that I'm not sure who is out there that's available though. 

Edited May 4, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

 

10 hours ago, '7' said:

fwiw...would it kill anybody playing the Phillies or Nationals to try? At least a little bit? Or is there an MLB wide conspiracy to make sure the Mets don't win the NL East this year. Nobody playing Wash or Philly has a pulse.

The Phils don't bother me at all. CR already covered it, but the underlying numbers don't support their record. They're playing more like an 11-16 team but instead sit at 16-11 thanks to fortunate timing of events. No team in baseball has outperformed their run differential as much as the Phils have so far. 

There's definitely some decent young talent there, and their front office finally appears to be in the right hands after years of Rubin Amaro's nonsense, so maybe their long road back to relevance will be shorter than initially anticipated. But it's not going to be in 2016.

Edited May 4, 2016 by nmigliore

[NJDevs4978]

At least they put the hitting shoes on today lol

And another good one for Matz, he's fast proving he does belong with the other big three.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Mets offense is clearly a bit of a bully offense...not surprising, I think we all kind of knew this group would have its share of front-running, fatten-up games.  I still think they'll be very suspect against better staffs.  

I still believe Matz will have ups and downs, but he's really done a hell of a job to complete negate that first-start trainwreck.  And the Mets need it...I think Harvey is in for a long year, which means everyone else is going to have to pick up the slack.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Another just awful outing for Niese yesterday (Darling has been taking some pretty clear shots at Niese, making some snide remarks at Jon's expense). 

Anyway, Niese's last three starts:  15.1 IP, 29 H, 16 ER, 9 BB, 10 K.  He's also hit two batters, and in last night's game he threw two wild pitches.  Hard to be much worse than this.