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New York Mets 2016 Season Thread


Colorado Rockies 1976
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2 minutes ago, '7' said:

Wright swinging through 92 mph fastballs down the middle, and then stares at another one on the corner

I mean is Wright going to have a Mark Reynolds K year without the home runs?

 

I can't take him anymore.  And by all means, bat Loser third in the lineup Terry.  Because he wasn't killing the team enough from the second spot.

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Wow...thank god the Reds manager was a complete dope just then...leaving a tiring lefty in to face Cespedes.  

It really is home runs or bust for this offense.

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2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Wow...thank god the Reds manager was a complete dope just then...leaving a tiring lefty in to face Cespedes.  

It really is home runs or bust for this offense.

No exaggeration, they have the worst avg in all of baseball with RISP

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Holy sh!t...Loser finally does SOMETHING.  Miraculous.

Guess he had to make up for it by getting picked off.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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9 minutes ago, '7' said:

No exaggeration, they have the worst avg in all of baseball with RISP

Yeah, this is SO not an offense built for the playoffs.  

Reed really seemed jacked up that inning.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Ynoa with another good start for Vegas...6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. Doesn't seem like this will last (only 12 K in 24.2 IP), as a lot of other numbers don't favor him.

Herrera and Nimmo (1-for-9 with 7 K combined last night) really struggling so far.  It's still early, and Herrera has plenty of time to find his game...but I wonder if there's even a smidgen of a chance that Sandy would consider paying up to keep Walker if Herrera has a lousy year in AAA.  I don't think Walker has become this mega-power threat...maybe he sets a career-high in HR this year, but I think if the Mets were to bring him back, he'd be what he's been for most of his career for at least two more seasons.  

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10 hours ago, '7' said:

No exaggeration, they have the worst avg in all of baseball with RISP

It's now .194 after last night's game.  Even though they're scoring more lately (we know why...the home run barrage), they are just SO bad at situational hitting/coming up with the big hit.  It seems like they either strike out or hit dingers with runners on...but usually it's Ks. 

Wright hitting .111 with RISP and .097 with runners on (to no one's surprise), with OB% of .273 and .243 in those situations.  Granderson hitting .133 with RISP and .207 with runners on, but the fact that he has gotten on base a little (.316 and .324) make it feel like he hasn't been as bad as the BA numbers suggest.  

Conforto and Cespedes have actually been quite beastly with runners on and with RISP...which gives you an idea of how badly everyone else has done. 

I have no idea how the Mets are supposed to handle Wright given the contract, but they gotta do something.  At the very least, he can't keep hitting at the top of the lineup...he had some surprisingly good batting numbers early on, in spite of the guys-on-base follies, but they're all starting to sink very quickly, and as we've also seen, he's a complete wild-card in the field.  In his last 6 games, he's 5-for-34 (four of the five hits were actually doubles), with 1 BB, 15 K, and a slash line of .147/.171/.265.  He's actually driven in three runs in those six games, including the big game-winner last night.  Last night was a nice moment, but we see what's been happening between the moments, and it's been beyond ugly.

No, he probably won't continue to be THIS bad, though if he were, he'd have to seriously consider early retirement...if this was the 1965-68 Yankees, the Mets could afford to carry a depleted, overpaid (but still popular) Wright the way that those Yankees fielded a depleted, overpaid Mickey Mantle, but this team is obviously looking at contending for a while.  This is scary...at the rate he's going, even 2014 Wright is going to look good compared to what we're seeing.  I know Flores has done almost nothing to warrant more playing time, but based on what I'm watching, I think the Mets are going to have to find a permanent solution at third base very soon.  It really seems like David's spinal stenosis has sapped away most of whatever remaining ability he had left, and with the stakes as high as they are, the Mets can't keep giving him opportunity after opportunity to try to show he can somehow beat this...especially when everything is suggesting that he can't.   

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Very sloggy early part of the game for Harvey but I'll take 6 IP, 2 ER and 7 K's.  He might not get away with it against a better team though.  Conforto making it near impossible for Terry to 'platoon' him at this point.  Hard not to be happy with the pen at this point, they've if anything exceeded expectations in spite of Familia being a bit shaky at times.

At least the Phillies proved to be equal opportunity pests taking a bite out of the Nats too.

Edited by NJDevs4978
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And FWIW Michael Fulmer's making his ML debut Friday at Minnesota, and another guy the Mets traded at the deadline last year (Jon Gant) also got a callup.  Amazing the Mets were able to trade these guys and still have a guy like Verrett hanging around to do whatever.

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Harvey clearly doesn't seem like Harvey, but he's at least starting to head in the right direction.  Feels like he has a ways to go though.  Admittedly I feel like the Dark Knight is a thing of the past.  

Excellent job for the Mets to completely negate their 2-5 start.  They've obviously faced some weaker teams, but can't complain about beating them (that's what they should be doing, right?)..and though TC definitely remains a head-scratching kind of manager, he deserves some serious credit for waking his team up and treating the final game of that Marlin series like it was a playoff game.  The Mets still have their flaws, but they've gone 11-2 since, and have been playing with the energy and urgency that seemed to have been missing since the start of spring training.

Phillies have quietly gone 11-10 to start their season...hard to say if they'll finish .500, but they look like they're going to make you earn their wins against them.  

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Regardless of how each player performed in 2016, for reasons gone over in detail many times, the Niese-for-Walker deal was a no-brainer (especially from the Mets' side).  Walker getting off to this crazy HR start has been a nice bonus, but it wasn't imperative for him to go on this tear for the deal to be justified.  Somehow, the Pirates have won every one of Niese's games (5-0, with three of those wins credited to Niese), despite the fact that he really hasn't been terribly good outside of one start (7 scoreless innings of 3-hit ball in his third start of the year).  His numbers over his last two starts have been particularly shaky:

11.1 IP, 20 H, 9 ER, 4 HR, 4 BB, 7 K, 2.32 WHIP, 7.15 ERA (in fairness, these were road starts in Arizona and Colorado, where the final scores were 8-7 and 9-8)

His overall season numbers obviously aren't as bad as the above, but they're not far from what you'd expect from Niese:

5 GP, 28.1 IP, 33 H, 18 R, 16 ER, 7 HR (ouch), 9 BB, 22 K, 1.48 WHIP, 5.08 ERA

If you want to bring some sabes into it, well, like Niese can be from game to game, they're kind of all over the place.  His FIP says he's been lucky (5.83...allowing 7 HR in 28.1 IP is going to kill that number), but his xFIP suggests the opposite (4.34...it makes sense that this is considerably lower, as xFIP accounts for home runs allowed based on the league HR/Fly ball% and the number of fly balls a pitcher allows, as opposed to simple actual HR allowed (FIP uses HR allowed as part of its formula, the main difference between FIP and xFIP).  xFIP basically assumes that pitchers will be lucky with their HR/Fly ball% some years, and less lucky in others, so the league HR/Fly ball% is used as an attempt for some normalization).  His BABIP is about what it should be (.302; .300 is considered "normal"), and his HR/Fly ball% is 21.9% (well above his career 11.4% rate, hence the relatively low xFIP...at the very least, I'd expect Niese' 2016 HR/Fly Ball% to come down to last year's 14.3%). 

Basically, Niese has been about what you'd expect Niese to be, with a dash of not-great luck thrown in.  One thing he HAS shown that he can do is get on a one-to-two month run just when you think you can't count on him, but he's not giving the Pirates much reason to pick up his 2016 option ($10 million)...that being said, even with the not-great start, there are signs that point to him improving...he's always been pretty good at getting ground balls (49.9% career rate), and it's not like he's constantly having to pitch in places like Colorado and Arizona, so he won't keep seeing one out of every five fly balls leave the park.  But as we know, there's no traditional numbers or sabes to measure above the neck...and that definitely isn't Niese's strong suit to date. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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I don't know about .500, but yeah, I think there is a clear gap between the Phillies and Braves (I didn't think there would be one, initially). JP Crawford, one of the top prospects in baseball, will come up at some point this year too and make Philly better. Odubel Herrera was a heck of a Rule V find for them.

 

Very nice run for the Mets after the poor start. Harvey's average velocity has ticked up ever so slightly in each of his last two starts where he's whiffed 12 batters and walked just 2 over 11 innings. Not exactly facing much competition with the Braves and Reds -- who rank 30th and 28th in park/league-adjusted offense, respectively (and frankly, saying the Braves rank 30th isn't even doing justice to how HORRIBLE they've been at the plate) -- but I'll take any kind of silver linings I can out of Matt right now.

Edited by nmigliore
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Just to highlight how bad the Braves have been - they've hit a total of 4 homeruns this season.... 4!! That's obviously the lowest total in baseball; the next lowest is the Marlins at 13, more than 3 times the Braves' amount of dingers. They have a team slash line of .224/.297/.282, which is like the equivalent of a lineup full of Brendan Ryans (or worse). Their team ERA is over 5 and ranks 4th worst in baseball. Yikes.

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44 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

Just to highlight how bad the Braves have been - they've hit a total of 4 homeruns this season.... 4!! That's obviously the lowest total in baseball; the next lowest is the Marlins at 13, more than 3 times the Braves' amount of dingers. They have a team slash line of .224/.297/.282, which is like the equivalent of a lineup full of Brendan Ryans (or worse). Their team ERA is over 5 and ranks 4th worst in baseball. Yikes.

When you're employing guys like Jeff Francoeur and Eric O'Flaherty, yeah, never gonna be pretty. 

The Reds might be even worse, since their 5-1 start.  They're 4-12 in their last 16 and have been outscored 113-54 (-59 run differential)...by comparison, with their 4-17 record, the Braves have been outscored 69-113 (-44).  The Pirates get the Reds in their next series...I'm sure they'd love to get back at the Reds for taking two of three from them earlier.  This could get even uglier...

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Nats get swept at home by the Phillies (so much for soft scheduling). They were shut out for the second straight game...and the end of this one got to be a little interesting.  Papelbon came into the game in the top of the ninth with the score 0-0 and the bases loaded, with no one out.  He got the first hitter (no one scored), then gave up a deep fly ball that Harper appeared to misplay, which allowed all three runners to score.  Papelbon clearly seemed to show Harper up with a pretty obvious display of frustration as a result...sh!t happens, sure, but interesting given their history.  First notable stumble for the Nationals...and will get people wondering if their clubhouse still has issues. Murph went 0-for-4 but is still hitting .370...he's been stuck on 2 HR and 9 RBI for what seems like a while now.

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19 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

And in something else that's kind of relevant in-division, Dee Gordon (yes the slap-hitting speed guy) gets popped 80 games for PED's.  Sheesh.

Can't ever be surprised by any of this, but at least guys are getting caught. 

It does make you realize that some guys simply don't trust their ability, and are willing to take the chance of getting busted...even if it happens two or three years into a big contract, they still made plenty of money during that time...it's not like they have to give any of it back.

I won't ever condone it, but the fact that these guys have to know that there's a good chance they'll get popped eventually really shows just how desperate they are to try to get one more contract...not even to just take care of themselves, but their families, parents, etc...for some of these guys, they might be the only real source of income in both their immediate and extended families.  Not to imply there's always some misplaced nobility behind PED use...I'm sure some guys simply think they're never going to get caught, or get bad advice from people who tell them how to beat these tests. 

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Phillies are definitely the early surprise story of 2016...after allowing 26 runs on the way to an 0-4 start, they're 12-6 in their last 18, and have allowed just 65 runs in those games...with five shutouts (that leads the NL).  That staff has also struck out 222 hitters in 196.1 IP, and allowed only 170 hits (.230 BAA).  They've been pretty good at not walking people too (2.89 per 9 IP)...by comparison, the Mets have struck out 194 and allowed 179 hits in 179.2 IP (.261 BAA)...of course, the Mets as a team don't walk many at all (just 2.15 per 9 IP, lowest in the NL).  Phillies pitchers have a OB%-Against of .292, Mets are at .304. 

Not saying that I'm convinced that the Phillies are going to turn the NL East into a three-team race (their offense is dreadful...just 72 runs scored in 22 games...the pitching staff is going to have to keep this up for the Phillies to have any shot to win 80 games)...but they are definitely exceeding expectations (the pitching is, anyway), and I'm sure they're feeling some extra confidence after sweeping the Nats on their home turf. 

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38 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

Not sure if it's been mentioned here but Michael Fulmer, who was dealt to Detroit for Cespedes last July, is making his MLB debut tonight vs the Twins.

Has mentioned it.  I've mentioned this before, but opinions on him vary...some see him starting, others relieving.  At the time I was sorry to see him go, but like we've all said many times, you can only hoard so many young arms for so long...especially if you need areas of your team addressed.  If he winds up having a solid major-league career, so be it. 

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10 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Phillies are definitely the early surprise story of 2016...after allowing 26 runs on the way to an 0-4 start, they're 12-6 in their last 18, and have allowed just 65 runs in those games...with five shutouts (that leads the NL).  That staff has also struck out 222 hitters in 196.1 IP, and allowed only 170 hits (.230 BAA).  They've been pretty good at not walking people too (2.89 per 9 IP)...by comparison, the Mets have struck out 194 and allowed 179 hits in 179.2 IP (.261 BAA)...of course, the Mets as a team don't walk many at all (just 2.15 per 9 IP, lowest in the NL).  Phillies pitchers have a OB%-Against of .292, Mets are at .304. 

Not saying that I'm convinced that the Phillies are going to turn the NL East into a three-team race (their offense is dreadful...just 72 runs scored in 22 games...the pitching staff is going to have to keep this up for the Phillies to have any shot to win 80 games)...but they are definitely exceeding expectations (the pitching is, anyway), and I'm sure they're feeling some extra confidence after sweeping the Nats on their home turf. 

True, they are a bit of a surprise but it's still so damn early...we're still in April. I can remember plenty of Mets teams that surprised and overachieved into May and then just turned into a raging dumpster fire in June and ended up losing 90+.

Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez are nice little scrappy hitters but guys that can be gotten out, and Maikel Franco is a solid middle of the lineup hitter, but Ryan Howard is just a mess at this point and the rest of the lineup is filled with nobody's like David Lough, Darin Ruf, and Pete Bourjos.

Maybe they have something with Nola and Velasquez but it's too early to tell. I think Velasquez good be a bulldog and I like his stuff.

 

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