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Colorado Rockies 1976

New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

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8 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Like I said...I'm not sure why I feel the same anticipation as I did with the 1986 team...but it's there for me for sure.

degrom-harvey-syndergaard-e1443516899707

Whatever holes this team does have...the big three plus Matz/Colon/Wheeler can cover or compensate for a lot of them.  It's the kind of formula I'm dying with for the Devils - lockdown defense with an average offense.  That's essentially what the Mets have...lockdown pitching with an average (well more accurately streaky) offense.

And re: Wright yeah I'm pretty much in agreement on those numbers too.  The Mattingly comparison gets thrown around a lot and with merit.  And look at Mattingly's last several years:

1990 - .258 (.309 OBP)-5 HR-42 RBI in 394 AB's

1991 - .288 (.339)-9-68 in 587 AB's

1992 - .288 (.327)-14-86 in 640 AB's

1993 - .291 (.364)-17-86 in 530 AB's

1994 - .304 (.397)-6-51 in 372 AB's

1995 - .288 (.341)-7-49 in 458 AB's

A couple of those seasons the numbers were actually very respectable but the rest he was just a singles hitter without speed.  Wright was never as good at his peak as Mattingly at his peak (nor does he have the RF porch Mattingly did for some cheap HR's) so I'm not expecting something even as good as his '92-93 seasons but the ideal would be something in between that and the other four seasons' worth of production in David's case.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I've actually thought about Mattingly a lot when it comes to Wright....I think 1994-95 is about what we can hope for, only with lower BAs and OB%s.  I remember 1992 and 1993, where Mattingly seemed to have to fight and claw to put up those seasons...it's actually amazing that he had 640 and 530 ABs.  I think Wright will be 450-500 from here on out, tops.

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And though on some levels I can appreciate the tough spot the Mets are in with Wright, I'm REALLY hoping they handle him correctly, for the better of the team.  

What I mean by that is, if Wright is struggling and then winds up missing a month due to his stenosis, and Flores gets the lion's share of playing time at third base and runs with it...then when Wright comes back, keep playing Flores until he suffers through an extended slump.  Don't give Wright the shining white knight treatment.  Don't insult our intelligence by making it sound like Wright returning under those circumstances is somehow a great thing.  We can accept that he's playing on an untradeable contract and that he won't even be the Wright of a few years ago, but don't take us for dummies.

The Mets don't owe Wright anything.  His contract and current abilities are going to do plenty more to hurt the Mets in the years to come that they will to help.  And he's going to be paid handsomely for it.  If Wright can turn in some respectable seasons over the next few years, all the more power to him...that can only be a big-time positive.  But if it's obvious that he's not helping the team, and someone else can, then Wright has to sit and wait for an opportunity. This version of Wright cannot get undeserved preferential treatment at the expense of his teammates.  

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Has, my point re:  1986 is that those Mets had the pitching AND some terrific offensive players (though not many could have seen what Ojeda would provide).  This Met offense is a lot less predictable or reliable.  It should at least be middle-of-the-pack, but I wouldn't feel comfortable saying that's a sure thing...and man is this going to be a strikeout-prone bunch.

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20 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

And though on some levels I can appreciate the tough spot the Mets are in with Wright, I'm REALLY hoping they handle him correctly, for the better of the team.  

What I mean by that is, if Wright is struggling and then winds up missing a month due to his stenosis, and Flores gets the lion's share of playing time at third base and runs with it...then when Wright comes back, keep playing Flores until he suffers through an extended slump.  Don't give Wright the shining white knight treatment.  Don't insult our intelligence by making it sound like Wright returning under those circumstances is somehow a great thing.  We can accept that he's playing on an untradeable contract and that he won't even be the Wright of a few years ago, but don't take us for dummies.

The Mets don't owe Wright anything.  His contract and current abilities are going to do plenty more to hurt the Mets in the years to come that they will to help.  And he's going to be paid handsomely for it.  If Wright can turn in some respectable seasons over the next few years, all the more power to him...that can only be a big-time positive.  But if it's obvious that he's not helping the team, and someone else can, then Wright has to sit and wait for an opportunity. This version of Wright cannot get undeserved preferential treatment at the expense of his teammates.  

Wright supposedly said LAST year  (according to TC) when he came back that he'd do whatever was necessary including sit. I don't think his ego will be a problem, if anything their own respect for David might be what hinders them making a 'tough' choice.  Well that and the contract they're on the hook for.

But I honestly think if we're in August and Flores is batting .280 with pop and above average D while David's hitting .245 with no pop and meh D at that point he'd take himself out IMO. Of course Flores is more likely to bat .245 with meh defense though.

Edited by NJDevs4978

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I don't think Wright's ego is ever going to be the problem.  I worry about the organization a lot more in that regard than I do about David.  

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deGrom following up Harvey's decent first outing with one of his own.  Hard to evaluate these games, really...these guys are becoming vets, and don't have to worry about proving themselves or competing for a spot in the rotation anymore...it's about getting some work in, staying healthy, and getting ready for the season, not trying to impress or blow guys away.

Spring training can't end fast enough. 

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Mets and Yanks end in a 4-4 tie, Mets' spring record now 3-3-2.  Bastardo gave up a pair of solo shots to allow the Yankees to tie. 

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The Young Guns Spring Debut train continues with Syndergaard today.  Former Met Matt Bowman (chewed up and spit out by the PCL...Cards took him in the Rule 5 draft) got in a game with the Cards yesterday and pitched a couple of innings.  Worth still paying attention to because, as we found out with Logan Verrett, losing a guy to Rule 5 doesn't mean he won't find his way back to his original team.  And though Bowman had a brutal time of it in the PCL, the Mets need some arms in the system. 

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Three scoreless IP for Noah, 1 H, 0 BB, 2K.  Nice.  Flores batting .462 in the early going. 

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I really hope Flores pitch selection has improved this year, the ball jumps off his bat quite well but he's also baited quite often to swing at a lot of junk. 

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Flores is going to get a huge opportunity...I think Wright is going to miss at last half the season, I really do (and as we know might not do much when he's actually playing).  Flores HAS to start progressing as a hitter...a slash line of .263/.295/.408 (OB+SLG of .703, OB+ of 95 (100 is average) is not going to be acceptable at third base...and I can see Flores getting 100 games or more there out of necessity.   

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Flores actually did fine last year considering it was his first full ML season.  He wore down at the end like he was a catcher but he should be better prepared to handle the rigors of the season this year (especially since he's not going to start game in and game out).  My only worry is how he handles defense at third base and really all the infield positions.  Ideally he's not the guy you bounce around the infield fielding-wise.

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15 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Flores actually did fine last year considering it was his first full ML season.  He wore down at the end like he was a catcher but he should be better prepared to handle the rigors of the season this year (especially since he's not going to start game in and game out).  My only worry is how he handles defense at third base and really all the infield positions.  Ideally he's not the guy you bounce around the infield fielding-wise.

Wearing down or not, there's obvious holes that Flores needs to work on...having a potential everyday third baseman who's making outs over 70% of the time is hard to cover up.  He's gotta start getting his OB% up.  Hopefully that happens.  And yeah, who knows with his defense...

----------------------------------

Really hard to think that this doesn't turn into something more than it seems to be at the moment...that has a way of happening with Met injuries:

http://nypost.com/2016/03/11/mets-asdrubal-cabrera-hurts-leg-after-slide-goes-wrong/

Ruben Tejada truly has nine lives...

----------------------------------

Didn't even notice that Montero followed Harvey back on 3/8.  He pitched one inning and gave up a run on two hits. 

The last few years have been so bizarre for Montero.  He was an absolute control beast before reaching AAA...and first reached Vegas in 2013, and was mentioned right along with Harvey and deGrom as a guy who would soon be pitching for the Mets.  Considering what the PCL often does to pitchers, Montero's numbers in Vegas have actually been quite good (though his IP per start are very low):

34 starts, 179.2 IP, 162 H, 67 ER*, 60 BB, 165 K, 3.42 ERA 

*also 17 unearned runs on top of that, which could mean he's had some crappy defenses behind him, or might mean that, like Jon Niese, he becomes a little unraveled when mistakes are made behind him. 

I just don't know what the Mets do with him.  It's going to take an injury for him to get a shot with this team in the rotation, though it seems like he's slated for the bullpen in 2016 (if he makes the team at all) and pretty much has been for a while now.  Does he go back to Vegas yet again?  I can't make a case for him not needing to go there based on his solid 2013 and 2014 Vegas numbers...who even knows if he's that guy anymore?  Obviously it's not unheard of for guys to start having injury issues and to never put it all together, even when it seems like they were on a fast track, the Montero was in 2013...but for me there's still a lot of "Man, what the hell happened?" when it comes to this guy. 

 

 

 

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Cabrera has a strained patella tendon and is likely to start the season on the DL, per Adam Rubin. He'll be idle for at least two weeks (beginning now) before resuming baseball activities. 

I certainly don't look forward to the inevitable pairing of Tejada and Flores on the left side of the infield when Wright gets a breather, but so it goes. Hopefully Cabrera won't miss much real action.

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No surprises here.  Not like Cabrera is some defensive beast anyway.

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Matz leaves 'em loaded with no outs in the 3rd for Bastardo (on two BB and a hit)...

and all three score.  Ouch. 

Verrett with two more good innings...he has to be ahead of Montero for a bullpen role at this point (still lots of spring left).

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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Man, Dominic Smith could afford to drop a few pounds. 

One of those days where everyone's getting rocked...of course, that's always a possibility with Colon. 

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Apparently Harvey's slider has regained its bite.  He's walked four in seven spring innings, but has only allowed one run.  Feels like spring is dragging already...

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deGrom being scratched from today's start due to back stiffness.  26-year-old Seth Lugo (AA and AAA last season) will get the start instead.  Argh.

Looking like the Mets might send Plawecki to AAA to get ABs, and try to bring in a veteran backup catcher.  Makes some sense...and when d'Arnaud inevitably gets hurt, Plaw will get another chance with the big club. 

Former Met farmhand Matt Bowman has not impressed much with the Cards in his two outings...4 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, and just 1 K.  The lack of Ks is a trend that continues from last season (he struck out just 77 in 140 IP last season, while allowing 184 hits, though to be fair, his Ks did go up a little as the season went on).  Hard to see him making the Cardinals at this rate, which means there's a very good chance that he could be back here...but one can't help but wonder if the Mets would even be willing to pony up the $25000 it would take to get him back...even with the pitching depth being a little thin at the moment. 

What you would hope for, if the Mets were to get Bowman back, is that he could pitch to something approaching these numbers...for much of June and July he was actually not too bad, by PCL standards:

48.1 IP, 47 H, 15 ER, 2 HR, 16 BB, 27 K, 1.30 WHIP, 2.79 ERA

Of course, he really wasn't good for much of the rest of his season, so not sure that we can really expect an extended stretch of the above. 

 

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Yeah, I could take or leave Bowman; his strikeout rate in the PCL last season was horrendous and his control wasn't especially good either. I'm modestly curious to see if his stuff plays up better in relief, but regardless of where ends up, I'm not going to have any reaction.

I'd be shocked if he makes the Cards' roster, too; their projected bullpen is already pretty decent and they don't really have the innings to waste on a guy like Bowman. He'd be a better fit on a bottom-feeder team that is throwing a bunch of crap at the wall and seeing what sticks.

Seth Lugo was somewhat interesting last season; he's old but he pitched well in AA and put up an incredible K/BB in a brief, 5-start AAA stint.

Edited by nmigliore

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Re: Plawecki:

Not sure why this is suddenly dawning on the Mets now but going with Plawecki was always a poor idea. It's one thing to punt backup catcher if you have an in-his-prime Yadier Molina type whose going to play 130+ games a season, but as much as I like d'Arnaud, we know that's not realistic with him, at least not until he proves it. It's more likely he'll get banged up a few times and between that and normal catcher rest, you're probably going to need your backup to play in 40% or more of games. 

Plawecki has a career AAA OPS (in the PCL) barely above .700 and a career MLB OPS under .600; on a team with World Series aspirations and a starting catcher whose not a lock to play in even 100 games, he's really not a guy to rely on as your backup. 

I don't mean to trash Plaweck either; I do think he has an MLB future, but he needs more seasoning in AAA.
 

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Same on Bowman, as far as take-him-or-leave-him goes...the only reason I wouldn't mind him coming back is that the Mets could use some extra arms. 

Yeah, he should probably be trying out for a bad team that doesn't have much pitching and isn't worried about the standings.  There wouldn't be that much opportunity for him here unless a lot of guys got hurt, and let's face it, if Bowman was ever pitching in the 2016 Met rotation, obviously some catastrophic things would've happened. 

Whatever happened to Tyler Pill?  Not that he was any great hope, but I can't find anything on him.

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16 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

 

Whatever happened to Tyler Pill?  Not that he was any great hope, but I can't find anything on him.

He was a complete disaster in the 51's rotation for most of last season and then was demoted to AA in August. He wasn't invited to MLB camp this year. He was always a fringy back-end starter prospect so at this point he's nothing more than an org arm. 

Edited by nmigliore

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The above I knew, as far as 2015 goes (both Bowman and Pill were beyond God-awful in AAA last season)...I keep close tabs on the Mets' minor leaguers (that's why I was bummed initially when Fulmer went in the Cespedes deal). 

I just didn't know what happened to Pill this season.  So I guess he's at the Mets' minor league camp?

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976

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