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New York Mets 2016 Season Thread


Colorado Rockies 1976
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Well they hung on. Thor went a full 8. Kept his pitch count down all game. Familia let up a double to start the 9th but settled down and earned the save. Needed to get this one with a slumping offense and staring down Kershaw tomorrow.

Also, Flores to the DL...Gilmartin up (who's pitched very well in AAA) Supposedly he hurt it very early in the season and tried to play through it, so hopefully it's the main reason he hasn't performed up to expectation. 

Matz is the guy we're all holding our breath for.

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Guess Noah figured he might as well provide his own run support after his last start. 

Agree that getting last night's win was important...Mets only need one more win to avoid a bad WC trip (5-6).  Obviously we'd like two or three wins to wrap up, but I'll always settle for a WC trip that's not disastrous, and this one was tough, with no dedicated travel off-day, and no off-days at all on this trip.  They haven't had one since April 28, so they could be getting a little tired. 

I could see this being one of those "it all goes wrong" games tonight:  Colon getting rocked, the Mets striking out 12+ times and doing nothing against Kershaw.  The Mets' worst losses have been 10-3 and 6-1, so it's not like they've had too many bad ones (8 out of their 12 have been by two runs or less).  They're probably due for a rough game.  If they manage to pull this one out, I'll consider it a major bonus. 

I'm hoping part of the recent slowing of the offense is due to fatigue, but it's really performing exactly as I thought it would overall.  It's pretty flawed.  As much as I can't believe I'm saying this, losing Wright will hurt a little at the plate...yeah, he's a complete disaster with runners on and in anything resembling a clutch situation, but the guy does get on base (.392 OB%, leads the team) and does score runs (15 RS in 26 GP).  Unfortunately it's starting to look like Granderson's 2015 season was a one-year burst...his OB+SLG has returned to 2013 and 2014 levels.  He needs to starting getting on base a lot more...it's actually kind of miraculous he's scored 20 runs with his only getting on base at a .299 clip. 

And it looks like Matz is going to be one of those "it's always something" guys.  Just hope he can be healthy and effective when needed.

 

Re:  Gilmartin, his traditional numbers at AAA look pretty good, the sabes suggest that he's been a bit lucky (though not absurdly so).     

 

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I have low expectations tonight facing Kershaw; obviously anything can happen in a single game, but Fangraphs' pregame odds put the Dodgers with a near-70% win expectancy. Those are higher odds than the Orioles have in a juicy matchup vs Mike Pelfrey in Camden Yards tonight.

Hopefully they can snag a couple wins in Colorado with Harvey and deGrom on the mound.

Mets really need Granderson and Duda to start turning things around, but I'm optimistic; their core numbers aren't very different than last season and it appears they're mostly being dragged down by low BABIPs.

 

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fwiw Scherzer, who has not been good this year...20k's last night. 

Kershaw I'm actually worried may no hit us. We need to get lucky to win tonight.

The Wright shoulder issue may be a problem since he already has trouble throwing. And in a no DH league, if you can't throw you can't play. I'm actually quite content with what Wright has done so far this season considering what he's been through. Also now with Flores DL'd we're going to see a heck of a lot more Eric Campbell in the lineup.

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

 

 

Re:  Gilmartin, his traditional numbers at AAA look pretty good, the sabes suggest that he's been a bit lucky (though not absurdly so).     

 

Yeah, Gilmartin has been pretty good in AAA. He's been lucky in the sense his ERA doesn't match his FIP, but his FIP is still pretty decent relative to the environment/league, and he's doing that as a starter. He also did a fine job in the Majors last season as a reliever and doesn't have a platoon split. Even though Verrett is our 6th/spot starter, I'm not so sure Gilmartin would be any worse if it came down to needing to DL Matz. I was also surprised to see Gilmartin is only one month older than Verrett.

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Was just looking through some numbers in the minors and it's nice to see Rosario is still raking. Relative to last season his walks are up, strikeouts are down, and he already has 14 XBH in 141 PA (he had 25 in 427 PA last season). He's also stolen 7 bases already, which is more than half of his total from last season.

Wulimer Becerra is the forgotten man in the Dickey trade, and he's still very much a prospect, but it's hard to get too excited over the loud slash line as he's doing that with meh plate discipline and zero power. For every ball he puts in play, he's getting a hit a hair under 50% of the time; that's wild.

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5 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

Was just looking through some numbers in the minors and it's nice to see Rosario is still raking. Relative to last season his walks are up, strikeouts are down, and he already has 14 XBH in 141 PA (he had 25 in 427 PA last season). He's also stolen 7 bases already, which is more than half of his total from last season.

Wulimer Becerra is the forgotten man in the Dickey trade, and he's still very much a prospect, but it's hard to get too excited over the loud slash line as he's doing that with meh plate discipline and zero power. For every ball he puts in play, he's getting a hit a hair under 50% of the time; that's wild.

Rosario is having a big year in A+ for sure.  Seems like a AA promotion is only a matter of time if he keeps this up.   

Hard to hit over .400 and not slug at least .500...but Becerra is doing exactly that. 

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Bad Bart today. Suppose it was due. You could tell from the first at bat. But keep Colon in, let him take his lumps, and save the pen. Have him pitch into the 8th if you can. Even if it's like 10-0 by then

Just don't get no-hit

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There wasn't even a GDT on NYFS tonight...I guess they all figured it was a letdown game too.  Like CR said you could smell this one coming a mile away.

Thank goodness they're still 4-4 on the trip with only the Coors series left.  Although 5-6 wouldn't be a total disaster I'd prefer at least 6-5, if you're a big-time team you find a way to win even most road series against bad teams.  Plus they still may need 95+ wins to ensure staying out of the Wild Card game.

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Yeah, went exactly as I thought it would...in a way that sucks, in that this team can be so predictable at times.  Not like Kershaw isn't having his way with everyone these days though.  And we know Colon's deal...it was only a matter of time before he was going to have a start like this (though his true implosion starts are usually even worse).

Mets haven't lost a series in a while now, so it wouldn't surprise me that much if they dropped two of three to Colorado...but hopefully they take two of three and come home with the 6-5 trip I was hoping for.  I'd be plenty happy with that.  

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I'll take Colon having his blow up on a game like yesterday...

However,  this is very predictable which other good teams know it, too. Which makes it very hard to win a championship.  At this point, I'm not sure what SA can aquire to get us over the hump. We know that we don't need more of the same. 

Edited by capo
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I think we just need good health from the rotation and a starting-caliber MLB catcher. That should be enough to get into the postseason. From there, despite the constant narratives of what works and what doesn't in the playoffs, it's really just about good luck/timing since the difference between the best playoff team and the worst is so minuscule in a short series.

Edit: Actually, I shouldn't say "just get to the postseason" -- avoiding the Wild Card game is pretty significant. But win your division and anything is possible. The baseball Gods (or if you want to be nerdy: randomness!) decide your fate from there.

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48 minutes ago, capo said:

I'll take Colon having his blow up on a game like yesterday...

However,  this is very predictable which other good teams know it, too. Which makes it very hard to win a championship.  At this point, I'm not sure what SA can aquire to get us over the hump. We know that we don't need more of the same. 

Yeah, re:  Colon, it really wouldn't have made that much of a difference if he gave up 2 runs or 5...the only downer is when you're trailing a guy like Kershaw by so many runs right out of the gate, it really takes the wind of your hitters' sails.  Not that Colon keeping them in it would've made that much difference...Kershaw has a WHIP of 0.726 and has walked 4 and struck out 77 (?!) in his 64 IP.  It's actually shocking that his ERA is as "high" as it as at 1.74.  The Marlins managed to plate 5 runs against him, but no one else has done a whole lot. 

re:  the offense and what works/what doesn't come playoff time...sure, in these brief one, five, and seven-game samples (often less in the latter two cases), anything can happen.  A meh offensive team can slash far above their season averages, etc.  That being said, the Met offense has so many flaws...the home run barrage and the mostly terrific pitching has helped to cover up some of them, but it's been years of this, with some of the same culprits being a part of it.  David Wright gets on base, but does almost nothing else.  Duda has his random 2 or 3 HR bursts a year, but is exactly the kind of guy who disappears against better arms, often looking feeble and overmatched...sucks for Conforto, in that these zilches won't pick him up when he slumps.  And unfortunately the Corner Losers are still counted on for production that neither one is capable of supplying.  It gets even worse if Curtis goes back to being 2013-14 Curtis. 

And of course, not only is the entire lineup strikeout-prone and god-awful at situational hitting/productive outs, but they just don't get enough hits, period.  They're batting .237 as a team in 2016, after hitting .244 last season, .239 the year before that, .237 the year before that...it would be nice if Sandy could stop bringing in guys who don't hit much for average but K aplenty. 

They'll get away with it during the regular season, especially if they keep hitting home runs, and the pitching doesn't fall off too much.  And of course Murph suddenly turning to Babe Ruth in the postseason helped out a lot last season.  But I won't be surprised if these guys are flailing badly come postseason time...there's not one guy in this lineup that won't be extremely vulnerable come playoff time, not one...and would anyone be shocked if Wright struck out 10+ times in any given series and left a village on the basepaths?  Not saying the Mets can't go deep into the playoffs if the rotation is reasonably healthy, but I think their pitching is going to have be at the top of its game for that to happen. 

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Gabriel Ynoa continues to pitch with horseshoes firmly planted up his ass:  an 8 IP, 1 ER win for him yesterday, despite allowing 9 hits.  He's now only struck out 22 hitters in his 45.2 IP, and he's enjoying a .236 BABIP and 81.9% strand rate.  His numbers with runners on and RISP are insanely stingy...insanely stingy meaning "not likely sustainable", unless he can continue to hold hitters to a .133 BA with RISP.   

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I probably had higher expectations on him than others, but Lugo has been disappointing, too; ugly ERA aside, while his walks are in fine shape he's not missing many bats. It's starting to look like his big strikeout numbers concluding last season in AAA were a blip. With the exception of Gsellman, whose strikeout rate is more decent than great, there really isn't anybody to be optimistic about in the upper levels, pitching-wise.

I'm still holding out some hope for Montero but he hasn't demonstrated good control in 3 years now and it's clear he's falling (or has already fallen) out of favor with our front office.

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2 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

I probably had higher expectations of him than others, but Lugo has been disappointing, too; ugly ERA aside, while his walks are in fine shape he's not missing many bats. It's starting to look like his big strikeout numbers concluding last season in AAA were a blip. With the exception of Gsellman, whose strikeout rate is more decent than great, there really isn't anybody to be optimistic about in the upper levels, pitching-wise.

I'm still holding out some hope for Montero but he's had a lot of issues throwing strikes against AAA and MLB hitters.

Yeah, we know what the deal is right now with the pitching depth (most definitely NOT a strength).  I've gone into detail about Montero a number of times (including his age...he's hardly old but he ain't no kid anymore)...the control artist that was Montero died after AA.  He'd been pretty good in AAA overall considering the league (it's not like Syndergaard tore it up in the PCL), but he's just never been as impressive above AA. 

At least Lugo is due for some positive regression:  BABIP of .391, FIP of 4.29, and a strand rate of 48.1%.  Hard to imagine that some of his traditional numbers won't improve, even with goofy PCL physics waiting to release their "magic".  Montero's due to have some luck go his way too.  But yeah, no blue-chippers in the next crop. 

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Saw this on Twitter... Nice to see deGrom's velocity perking back up. Pretty significant to go from averaging 92.5 mph in the first start to 94 mph the other night. Hopefully this progression continues, the strikeouts go back up, and we'll all laugh about the concerns we had over the velocity dip in ST and April.

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Regarding deGrom, I think the ordeal with his son weighed heavily on him and the lat injury probably bothered him more than we were let on. That trend is certainly encouraging.

One thing I love about deGrom is that he always battles and limits damage even when he doesnt have his best stuff. That's the sign of a real bulldog. I think he'll be fine.

The real concerns are now Matz and his elbow as well as the news that Thor had his elbow looked at a few weeks ago as well.

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Mediocre Matt

And of course Loser is as Loser does.  You make it so easy to hate you David.  Even with some of the good things you do.

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25 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Normally you can't get on anyone for a Coors outing...but this is the EXACT SAME pattern that's happened in all of Harvey's starts, fine first time around the order then dies in the middle innings.

He's an average pitcher now until further notice. 

Bye bye Matt. 

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Never know what you're going to get at good ol' Coors.  We'll see if these dipsh!ts can stop striking out long enough to put a rally together...provided Loser doesn't have an AB in the middle of one.

Two more Ks, of course. 

And Loser starts off the 8th with one.  He has enough trouble getting around on 90 mph fastballs...probably shouldn't expect him to get around on ones approaching 100. 

Hard to get on Cespedes, but yet another unproductive out.  Duda will K.

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