New York Mets 2016 Season Thread

[nmigliore]

Losing Duda for a significant amount of time would be very hurtful. He may not be a fan favorite here but he's at worst a league average player, so dropping down from him to a replacement level scrub like Flores or Campbell is a like 2- or 3-win loss over a full season. The Mets would absolutely need a replacement from outside the organization. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by nmigliore

[nmigliore]

Kind of a random note here, but kudos to the bullpen so far. Familia, Reed, and Robles have all been excellent. Bastardo is doing his usual thing - lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, and outperforming his underlying numbers. Henderson and Blevins have been good. You probably wouldn't have guessed it, but the Mets' bullpen leads MLB in ERA and FIP. They're 4th in xFIP. 

The only change I would make right now is flipping Verrett for Gilmartin. It's not really a big deal since we're talking about a guy who is, by far, getting the lowest leverage innings in the 'pen, but Verrett's peripherals are trending in the wrong direction. Gilmartin, meanwhile, has 60+ very productive MLB innings to his name (with no platoon split) and has even pitched quite well as a starter in Vegas. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

3 hours ago, nmigliore said:

Losing Duda for a significant amount of time would be very hurtful. He may not be a fan favorite here but he's at worst a league average player, so dropping down from him to a replacement level scrub like Flores or Campbell is a like 2- or 3-win loss over a full season. The Mets would absolutely need a replacement from outside the organization. 

What I'd like to see is the Mets find a replacement for Duda that actually gets some hits (I could live with a lack of HR power at that position for the moment)...for one, the team is getting enough HRs throughout the lineup (and as we see, for all of the dingers this team hits, they don't score nearly enough).  For another, I've really had enough of the low-BA/high-K hitters that Sandy has collected.  Duda simply doesn't get enough base hits.  As some point, the only way the offensive dynamic around here is going to start to change is if the guys who struggle to hit .250 are replaced.  Duda is one of the big low-BA offenders and has been for a while...yes, I know he's been good at drawing walks in the past, but sometimes you need a guy to come up with a damned HIT.  The Mets don't have enough guys who do that, especially with this version of Wright in the lineup. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[nmigliore]

You may not like Duda's skillset but that's besides the point (right now). The problem is that the replacements behind him -- Flores, Campbell, and so forth -- are horrendous options at 1B. They are replacement level players or worse at that position. Duda isn't some star by any means, but like I said, he's at worst an average regular, and the drop down from that to replacement level is about 2 wins. If you value Duda more than that (he's been a +3 win player each of the last two seasons), then it's more like a 3-win downgrade. Either way, it's very problematic - the Mets can't afford to be giving away wins like that; the value of even a single win added or lost is significant to this team. This is why I hope the Mets aren't picky at the deadline, assuming things don't fall apart by then. There is a time and place to be aggressive in adding extra wins and the Mets are at that segment of the win curve.

Edited May 23, 2016 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

41 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

You may not like Duda's skillset but that's besides the point (right now). The problem is that the replacements behind him -- Flores, Campbell, and so forth -- are horrendous options at 1B. They are replacement level players or worse at that position. Duda isn't some star by any means, but like I said, he's at worst an average regular, and the drop down from that to replacement level is about 2 wins. If you value Duda more than that (he's been a +3 win player each of the last two seasons), then it's more like a 3-win downgrade. Either way, it's very problematic - the Mets can't afford to be giving away wins like that; the value of even a single win added or lost is significant to this team. This is why I hope the Mets aren't picky at the deadline, assuming things don't fall apart by then. There is a time and place to be aggressive in adding extra wins and the Mets are at that segment of the win curve.

Read what I wrote in previous posts.  I already said that Campbell or Wright would not be good options.  And agree on Flores being a lousy in-house option.  I didn't say that the current solution is any combination of in-house replacement trash.  My point was that Duda was just good enough at certain things that Sandy never seemed to be interested in upgrading (or finding a different type of hitter to play the position).  If he's out for a while, now there's some motivation to see what else is out there, even if the new guy won't be replicating or approximating exactly what Duda brought. 

Like I said, I'd like to see them go out and try to find someone who might not have the power expected for a first baseman, but can hit to the tune of .280+.  Maybe get on base 34-35% of the time.  Hit some doubles and an occasional home run, and not go into extended K-funks/looking overmatched the way Duda did.  Make some contact and productive outs.  Whoever Sandy might find won't check all of these boxes, but I don't necessarily believe that it's either Duda or replacement chum. 

 

EDIT:  Yikes.

I'll give you this...after looking around, there's not much out there.  One thing I'll point out is that the Mets will have to replace 2016 Duda, who may not have been able to reach 2014 and 2015 Duda levels (no way to know for sure of course).  But yeah, it's a little bleak right now at first base.  I can't really argue that.

Edited May 23, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

33 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Read what I wrote in previous posts.  I already said that Campbell or Wright would not be good options.  And agree on Flores being a lousy in-house option.  I didn't say that the current solution is any combination of in-house replacement trash.  My point was that Duda was just good enough at certain things that Sandy never seemed to be interested in upgrading (or finding a different type of hitter to play the position).  If he's out for a while, now there's some motivation to see what else is out there, even if the new guy won't be replicating or approximating exactly what Duda brought. 

Like I said, I'd like to see them go out and try to find someone who might not have the power expected for a first baseman, but can hit to the tune of .280+.  Maybe get on base 34-35% of the time.  Hit some doubles and an occasional home run, and not go into extended K-funks/looking overmatched the way Duda did.  Make some contact and productive outs.  Whoever Sandy might find won't check all of these boxes, but I don't necessarily believe that it's either Duda or replacement chum. 

 

EDIT:  Yikes.

I'll give you this...after looking around, there's not much out there.  One thing I'll point out is that the Mets will have to replace 2016 Duda, who may not have been able to reach 2014 and 2015 Duda levels (no way to know for sure of course).  But yeah, it's a little bleak right now at first base.  I can't really argue that.

James Loney would probably check most or all of those boxes and he's available (currently on a minor league deal in the San Diego organization but can leave if he gets a ML offer).

And it seems like Duda has a stress fracture in his back and is out 4-6 weeks MINIMUM...apparently they are going to go in-house first though with Conforto starting to take grounders there...and yet are maintaining Wilmer will get the first crack there when he gets off the DL Friday.  In the meantime it's Eric Campbell/Ty Kelly/whomever for this crucial series

fwiw Wright offered to take grounders at first but Terry isn't considering it atm.

Edited May 23, 2016 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Almost makes one wonder if the Mets would even dream of doing the unthinkable and giving clearly-not-yet-ready Dominic Smith a look.  Doubtful (and I can't say that I would support Smith getting a call-up...just saying that the in-house options are that limited). 

So the Mets wouldn't even have to move a body to get Loney?  The SLG%s the past couple of years are a bit scary-low (we know he's currently not in the majors for a reason), but at least he does gets some base hits.  If there's not much cost involved, guess you could give him a few weeks. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

2 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Almost makes one wonder if the Mets would even dream of doing the unthinkable and giving clearly-not-yet-ready Dominic Smith a look.  Doubtful (and I can't say that I would support Smith getting a call-up...just saying that the in-house options are that limited). 

So the Mets wouldn't even have to move a body to get Loney?  The SLG%s the past couple of years are a bit scary-low (we know he's currently not in the majors for a reason), but at least he does gets some base hits.  If there's not much cost involved, guess you could give him a few weeks. 

Well they'd probably have to DFA someone to make room on the 40-man roster but that's it.

They already ruled out Dom Smith for the moment:

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN  8m8 minutes ago

Terry Collins added that Dominic Smith is not a short-term option at first base.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

4 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

Well they'd probably have to DFA someone to make room on the 40-man roster but that's it.

They already ruled out Dom Smith for the moment:

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN  8m8 minutes ago

Terry Collins added that Dominic Smith is not a short-term option at first base.

Better that way, re:  Smith.  One of those moves that would seem a little intriguing...until he got here and struggled mightily.  If he's not really rocking AA pitching (and he isn't), kind of hard to imagine he'd take the majors by storm.  Let him develop. 

['7']

Not sure of Dom Smith will ever develop the power that we're looking for from 1b, but I think he'll be pretty good.

Interesting you mentioned Loney as I think Smith's upside will essentially be Loney at his peak,

It's too early. 20 and barely a body of work even in AA. Maybe late next year we'll see him.

[nmigliore]

I actually like the idea of Conforto at 1B with de Aza/Lagares in CF (Cespedes and Grandy on the corners). He has no experience there, but hell, that's probably the optimal offensive (and arguably defensive) unit you can run out there with this current group.

Smith shouldn't even be in the conversation. He's barely holding his own in AA right now. 

Edited May 23, 2016 by nmigliore

['7']

So Duda has a stress fracture in his back and was put on the 15 day DL.

Metsblog is saying 4-6 week injury. Honestly I'm shocked this wasn't worse. ASB is probably when we'll see him next.

[nmigliore]

1 hour ago, NJDevs4978 said:

James Loney would probably check most or all of those boxes and he's available (currently on a minor league deal in the San Diego organization but can leave if he gets a ML offer).

A few folks on Twitter have brought him up and I (very sadly) agree. I think he'll be a Met shortly. I much rather stick it out with the above Conforto idea, but it's probably not realistic.

Dario Alvarez was DFA'd to make room for Ty Kelly, who is coming up in Duda's roster place.

Edited May 23, 2016 by nmigliore

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Terry for the love of God I know you're not the brightest bulb in the batch but you could not bat Loser third please?  It's not fvcking 2008 anymore.  The guy is about as guaranteed to fail as it gets.  And of course he sets his loser tone by yet again K-ing with runners on.  It's not fair to anyone, and it shows absolutely zero creativity on your part.  Take five friggin' seconds to realize he's awful now.  Goddamn.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Well it worked in that AB.  Nice knock David. 

Wow...bats are going...Gio is definitely due for some regression though...he's not as good as he's been so far this season.

Edited May 24, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

['7']

God damn Wright killed that inning with the strikeo....

3 run HR Wright

*edit post...delete* 

Bartolo has to get us into the 7th at least 5-3. He doesnt have to be perfect but no implosions.

['7']

I have no idea how Murphy continues to do this. Someone tell me this is unsustainable, but it's been like two months and he's the white Tony Gwynn.

At 31 years old no less? How did he get this good this fast this "late" in his career?

Guy is pure hitter. And it's not like it's been some endless tear sincen the Dodger series...he didnt hit a lick during the World Series.

 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

And man has Cespedes made me eat some serious crow to date.  Guy is having a hell of a season. 

Now Walker.  Sweet!

['7']

31 home runs in only 96 regular season games as a Met. That's insane.

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 minutes ago, '7' said:

31 home runs in only 96 regular season games as a Met. That's insane.

32 in 97 now.

Coming into tonight, he's put up a .980 OB+SLG as a Met.  Nowhere near that in his prior stops.  Something about the Mets really seems to click with him. 

Gio's ERA went up a full run tonight...from 1.86 to 2.87. 

Edited May 24, 2016 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[NJDevs4978]

1 hour ago, '7' said:

31 home runs in only 96 regular season games as a Met. That's insane.

Too bad we're gonna face the same ???'s about Cespedes opting out and coming back after this season too...but with how badly he wanted to stay here last offseason maybe he doesn't opt out after all.  Of course if he does I think someone's gonna give him too much money to turn down and it won't be us.

['7']

Impressed with the effort tonight. Neat and tidy win. Bart in control start to finish. Offense has a nice breakout. Always good to win handily when you're undermanned.

Now Harvey tomorrow (with the 7 line in the building) a poor outing means a near certain DL trip.

Something about the Nats just doesnt scare me. Murph cannot possibly keep this up, Werth is a .220 hitter at this point. Wilson Ramos can be great but an injury prone catcher will not hit .337 forever. Zimmerman is not a threat.

I just look at them and see 85 wins tops. If they ever hit any sort of injury bump in the road they can be derailed rather quickly

Phillies should be coming back to earth shortly.

[NJDevs4978]

The Nats' pitching worries me on balance but there's always Dusty around to overwork them.

And it amazes me just how much people were dying for Plawecki to win the catcher job and noodle bat's still straddling the mendoza line.  How long before they just say fvck it and play Rivera?

Also apparently Colon's dealing with a stiff back....at least he put up a good start tonight.

Edited May 24, 2016 by NJDevs4978

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

7 hours ago, '7' said:

Impressed with the effort tonight. Neat and tidy win. Bart in control start to finish. Offense has a nice breakout. Always good to win handily when you're undermanned.

Now Harvey tomorrow (with the 7 line in the building) a poor outing means a near certain DL trip.

Something about the Nats just doesnt scare me. Murph cannot possibly keep this up, Werth is a .220 hitter at this point. Wilson Ramos can be great but an injury prone catcher will not hit .337 forever. Zimmerman is not a threat.

I just look at them and see 85 wins tops. If they ever hit any sort of injury bump in the road they can be derailed rather quickly

Phillies should be coming back to earth shortly.

Outside of Murph and Ramos, no one on that team is really hitting.  The rest of the team is batting .213.  I get the feeling they'll make a move to bring in a bat at some point (probably sooner than later, though with the Mets having their own flaws, they don't really have to rush unless they go into a deep funk)...there's a reason Harper isn't being pitched to. 

Both the Mets and Nats look like 90-win teams right now.  Obviously good but not great.  Nats' rotation has been mostly terrific, and when four starters are all pitching to ERAs under 3.00 (with Scherzer getting it going as of late), you're going to put up a solid record. 

If you're a sabes guy, you'll take note that all but Strasburg in the Nats' rotation has outpitched their FIP (though Scherzer's xFIP is considerably better than his FIP and ERA).  So it's not that surprising that Gio had a regression-type game last night...that rotation is probably due for a bit of a regression all-around.  I can't see everyone not names Murph and Ramos continuing to hit .213 as a group though.  They'll do better than that. 

By comparison, FIP and xFIP are kinder to the Mets.  I brought it up before, but considering how bad Harvey's ERA is, his FIP and xFIP are quite good...his xFIP (3.83) is actually better than both deGrom and Colon (currently at 3.93).  I still find this way of measuring pitchers a little iffy...Harvey has mostly looked every bit as bad as his ERA suggests.  But if you do subscribe to those numbers, they at least indicate that Syndergaard and Matz have been just as terrific as their ERAs show, and that the Met staff has been much more good than lucky...and that includes the pen, which looks like it's due for mild regression overall at best. 

re:  Murph...yeah, he's not finishing the season with a .389 BA (.410 BABIP), but he doesn't have to do that much to finish over .300...if he hits in the .270s from here on out, he'll finish around .310...and if he hits around his career avg (.293), he'll be around .325 or better, depending on how many ABs he gets.  Really feels like it's going to be a career year for Murph, even if he turns back into the same ol Murph from here on out. 

re:  the Phils...my opinion of them won't chance until they start scoring.  They play in a bandbox and they don't hit home runs (34, 14th in the NL) or doubles (60, dead last in the NL).  They're in the bottom three in the NL in just about every offensive category (14th in runs scored, 3.24 RPG, just barely above Atlanta's 3.19 RPG).  And the run differential continues to be fugly at -32. 

If you're a subscriber to this formula, then the Phillies have been almost comically lucky to date:

What is pythagorean winning percentage?

Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

               (Runs Scored)^1.83
---------------------------------------------------------
 (Runs Scored)^1.83 +  (Runs Allowed)^1.83

According to this formula, the Phillies should be 18-27 at this point.  If they finish with 80+ wins, they'll have done a hell of a job.  But I can't see them pulling it off unless the offense miraculously improves, and significantly at that. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

8 hours ago, NJDevs4978 said:

The Nats' pitching worries me on balance but there's always Dusty around to overwork them.

And it amazes me just how much people were dying for Plawecki to win the catcher job and noodle bat's still straddling the mendoza line.  How long before they just say fvck it and play Rivera?

Also apparently Colon's dealing with a stiff back....at least he put up a good start tonight.

A lot of people are tired of TDA's injuries and poor behind-the-plate defense...of course they were hoping for an in-house option to step up.  Plaw was the classic back-up QB scenario...he's interesting mostly by virtue of being not-TDA.  Well, we've gotten another extended look at him, and unfortunately it's not looking good.  He was starting to hit there for a little bit, and he's still young, but it's hard to get terribly excited about his 100 GP, 318 AB sample so far. 

Still, TDA's early work was about as rough...doesn't mean that I think Plaw will be much better than he is now, but sometimes guys who look overmatched initially (TDA definitely did) figure it out enough to at least be decent at the plate.