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New York Mets 2016 Season Thread


Colorado Rockies 1976
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Whoopie.  Too little too late.  Flores and/or Reyes will be a big downgrade defensively. 

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Yunel Escobar can play 3B and SS. This makes so so much sense right now.

Anyway...we're playing the Yankees tomorrow. If the Mets want to crawl back into any sort of race they have to sweep them.

Least buzz for a Yankees/Mets series maybe ever. Yankees have lost 4 in a row and are selling off. Doubt we'll see Beltran tomorrow

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I give the Yankees credit...they're 100% right to do what they're doing.  Eventually EVERY franchise needs to take a step back. 

I don't think Sandy does anything of note.  Get the feeling he's punting on 2016 now.

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3 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I give the Yankees credit...they're 100% right to do what they're doing.  Eventually EVERY franchise needs to take a step back. 

I don't think Sandy does anything of note.  Get the feeling he's punting on 2016 now.

I'm impressed at how committed they were to selling and selling hard. Not too long ago they had one 8 of 10, nearly swept the Orioles. They were hovering around the division and wild card and not too far out really.

Heck even after 4 straight losses they're still only 7 out of the division (though falling fast in the WC, 5.5 out there). The normal Steinbrenner approach is to go for it if there is even a small chance.

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Also the Mets have supposedly made a trade involving a minor leaguer, Wally Backman tweeted.

If this was a promotion obviously it wouldn't be so dour. I guess we'll find out soon enough

 

 

Saying goodbye to a player is the toughest part of my job.

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Happy to see Gsellman have three straight solid starts after a rough start in AAA.  The numbers:  19.1 IP, 16 H, 6 ER, 4 HR, 4 BB, 18 K.  Of course, other arms have had some small samples of success in the PCL within bad years (Bowman, Pill, etc), so it's hard to say if this will continue...but between the guy getting both rocked AND injured upon being promoted, it's just nice to see him putting something together.  Especially since it's inevitable that someone will get hurt next season (as it seems like anyone not named Colon is a long-term injury waiting to happen).  This is the kind of guy that no one's really thinking of right now, but chances are you'll be seeing him at some point during the 2017 season. 

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19 hours ago, '7' said:

It's absolutely time for Walker to go. I see now why it only took Niese to get him. Not that Walker is a whiner and somebody that doesn't battle like Niese...but he's a guy who cannot be any sort of impact big pressure player. Deal him somewhere and let Herrera have the keys to 2nd for the rest of the season.  

I don't even care much about what he's doing in Vegas. He has over 1000 combined AA and AAA at bats already. Let him start learning about Major League pitching.

I know you kind of hate Walker (and it's some of his fielding gaffes that I find have been annoying lately), but he's basically been Neil Walker overall this year.  Career slash of .271/.336/.431, with a .259/.325/.435 mark this season.  Lifetime .767 OB+SLG, with a .760 mark in 2016. 

And here's the big surprise, as far as his 2016 numbers go:

No one on:  .229/.291/.376

Runners on:  .304/.374/.526

RISP:  .265/.338/.441 

The fact that the numbers are surprising go to show that his season doesn't feel as good as some of the numbers suggest.  I'm not going to tell you that I get the warm and fuzzies when I see him coming up, and it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the above was buoyed by April.  And the guy was pretty much MIA for about six weeks until recently breaking out, but that probably shouldn't have come as a shock...on June 4 he was slashing .285/.354/.516, which was leaps and bounds over any previous single season numbers...it simply wasn't going to be sustainable (not everyone can have an off-the-charts season like Murph). 

Anyway, at least Walker was pretty much been what he is (and he'll probably be within his typical career norms...if he plays the same exact number of games this season that he did last year, and maintains the same RBI pace, he'll even finish with the same number of RBI that he has last season, at 71), and if anything, is a little guilty by association due to this team's abundant lack of clutch...also, he's supposed to a complementary, pitch-in guy who had a little power...he was never supposed to be a guy the Mets absolutely had to rely on for production.  At least he hasn't been the positional equivalent of Niese, who lost his job and is now kind of in little-used limbo.  Mets still got the better end of that deal by far. 

 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I know you kind of hate Walker (and it's some of his fielding gaffes that I find have been annoying lately), but he's basically been Neil Walker overall this year.  Career slash of .271/.336/.431, with a .259/.325/.435 mark this season.  Lifetime .767 OB+SLG, with a .760 mark in 2016. 

And here's the big surprise, as far as his 2016 numbers go:

No one on:  .229/.291/.376

Runners on:  .304/.374/.526

RISP:  .265/.338/.441 

The fact that the numbers are surprising go to show that his season doesn't feel as good as some of the numbers suggest.  I'm not going to tell you that I get the warm and fuzzies when I see him coming up, and it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of the above was buoyed by April.  And the guy was pretty much MIA for about six weeks until recently breaking out, but that probably shouldn't have come as a shock...on June 4 he was slashing .285/.354/.516, which was leaps and bounds over any previous single season numbers...it simply wasn't going to be sustainable (not everyone can have an off-the-charts season like Murph). 

Anyway, at least Walker was pretty much been what he is (and he'll probably be within his typical career norms...if he plays the same exact number of games this season that he did last year, and maintains the same RBI pace, he'll even finish with the same number of RBI that he has last season, at 71), and if anything, is a little guilty by association due to this team's abundant lack of clutch...also, he's supposed to a complementary, pitch-in guy who had a little power...he was never supposed to be a guy the Mets absolutely had to rely on for production.  At least he hasn't been the positional equivalent of Niese, who lost his job and is now kind of in little-used limbo.  Mets still got the better end of that deal by far. 

 

Strange that he's at .265 risp...seems like it was worse. I suppose it also could be because he just got less opportunities with men on than we think...or perhaps had some base cloggers in front of him where a single with a man on 2b didn't result in an RBI. His RBI totals are lower than I'd like them to be, but I also can't get Murphy and his Ruthian stats out of my head. It is unfair to compare the two at this point. Walkers recent tear have bolstered things a bit, but up until like a week ago he sunk down into the .230's IIRC

I will say Walker is far down the line of 2016 goats. Harvey and Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, Granderson, Conforto d'Arnaud, Terry...here are your culprits

And by the way, Murphy is dinged up now. Missed the last two games vs San Fran, and we promptly saw what the no-Murph Nationals are as a team. Two meek losses

Told #Mets are cautiously optimistic about deal for Bruce. Feeling is trade will happen.

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So the Mets are back in on Bruce. 

He's not perfect, and certainly Ces had his warts coming here and has proven to be much better at the plate than we expected.

Bruce seems to me a guy that would thrive on a team better than the dumpster fire apathetic Reds. He also seems like a guy whose WAR doesn't quite tell the whole story. 80 rbi on August 1 and a 0.7 WAR? Something doesn't compute there

He was just coming off a 9 game stretch where he hit 7 HR and drove in 16 RBI. I mean that's pretty incredible. Murphian numbers. We couldn't use that kind of production? 

I realize we don't play in the great American Launching Pad, however right and right center field certainly isn't as daunting as it once was. I think he'd do well here. Heck he could absolutely feast at Yankee Stadium later this week.

He also rarely misses any games. There is something to be said for that with what we've seen this year.

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1 minute ago, NJDevs4978 said:

According to Joel Sherman it would be Nimmo and two lower level prospects. If that's the trade there better not be an 11th hour snag now...

That's an absolute steal, if we deal for Bruce and Nimmo is the centerpiece of such a deal? That would be amazing.

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38 minutes ago, '7' said:

Strange that he's at .265 risp...seems like it was worse. I suppose it also could be because he just got less opportunities with men on than we think...or perhaps had some base cloggers in front of him where a single with a man on 2b didn't result in an RBI. His RBI totals are lower than I'd like them to be, but I also can't get Murphy and his Ruthian stats out of my head. It is unfair to compare the two at this point. Walkers recent tear have bolstered things a bit, but up until like a week ago he sunk down into the .230's IIRC

I will say Walker is far down the line of 2016 goats. Harvey and Duda, Asdrubal Cabrera, Granderson, Conforto d'Arnaud, Terry...here are your culprits

And by the way, Murphy is dinged up now. Missed the last two games vs San Fran, and we promptly saw what the no-Murph Nationals are as a team. Two meek losses

Told #Mets are cautiously optimistic about deal for Bruce. Feeling is trade will happen.

That's part of what comes with Murph...he's not as injury-prone as guys like d'Arnaud, but he does miss some games. 

Yeah, re:  Walker's recent sub-.240 BA...he was in one hell of a slump.  I think he'll be right around what his career numbers dictate by season's end.  I'd even consider bringing him back, as long as his contract demands weren't outrageous (I'm kinda iffy on Herrera, but he'll get the job next season because he's cheap...which probably renders the rest of this post moot).  Maybe a 3-4 year deal (or 3 with an option) around $9-10 million or so...he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to get overpaid by other suitors, and what's interesting is that Murph is going to make it hard for Walker-types to think they're getting a big payday.  Walker isn't spectacular by any means, but you at least know what you're getting with him...if he's not being asked to do too much, he's a good fit. 

But I don't think you get into anything remotely resembling a bidding war with him...if someone wants to go over $10 million per season for him, or gets too long with the term, soyonara. 

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This is the lineup we could be putting out there in 2 weeks or so...

3B - Reyes

2B - Walker

LF - Cespedes

RF - Bruce

1B - Duda

CF - Conforto

SS - Flores (depends on Cabrera's standing

C - d'Arnaud

Pitcher

This lineup will score runs. They will butcher in the field except for Walker...but they'll score runs.

But at least you'll be able to bring in Loney late game for defense for Duda once he returns. I'm hoping Lagares can return this year too to provide late game defense as well.

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On ‎7‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 3:01 PM, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Sandy should take a good look at Bruce's 2014 and 2015 seasons: 

2014:  .217/.281/.373

2015:  .226/.294/.434

And that was "accomplished" with a lot of games being played in Great American Bandbox.

But low average, very high-K guys with some power (and remember where Bruce plays his home games) seem to be Sandy's cup of tea. 

To be fair, Bruce IS having a career-year, for whatever that's worth (.895 OB+SLG this season, .791 OB+SLG for his career), and he's only signed through next season if his option is picked up, so it's not like he's on a terrible or expensive deal.  And he'll be playing for a contract in 2017 if the Mets keep him. 

It all depends on the asking price.  I really don't want Rosario to be a part of this deal.  Big difference between Great American and CitiField.  I guess you can pray Bruce can be Cespedes 2.0...a guy who suddenly kicks it into a higher level as a Met.  But this is the kind of player the Mets will look into...like Lucroy, he's not expensive and not signed long-term.

 

On ‎7‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 4:28 PM, nmigliore said:

Bruce's WAR is basically 0 (aka replacement level) over the last three seasons combined. In two of those seasons he sucked at hitting and in all three he's been a horrendous defender. The projection systems also aren't really buying the sudden bounceback at the plate - they forecast him to be only slightly above average at the plate ROS. The Mets can probably get that kind of offense (or better) out of Conforto with much better defense.

I know folks may not believe much in the defense metrics, but really, the last thing this team needs is another plodding outfielder to slot in somewhere between Granderson and Cespedes.

 

Bruce makes me nervous...if he reverts backs to 2014-15 form (and that cannot be ruled out), this is going to be a disaster...not because of the price (Nimmo plus a couple of meh-ish prospects isn't terrible...Nimmo clearly wasn't going to fetch much more unless he was dealt with a higher-rated prospect, as many seem to doubt his ability to be a full-time starter as a major-leaguer).  But this will be yet another low BA, high-K, all-or-nothing, too-reliant on the long-ball kind of hitter...I'm really getting sick of this kind of hitter, and Sandy can't seem to stockpile enough of them.  I'm guessing they're not picking up his $13 million option for 2017, so he's likely a rental.  This deal makes a ton of sense for the Reds, in that they're getting something back for a guy they probably didn't want to pay in 2017 anyway...the two other prospects better be longshots.

I'll admit it...if this somehow falls through, I won't be that heartbroken.  But since it seems like this is it (man I would've SO much been happier with Lucroy), hopefully he continues to have a career year, and doesn't become the latest bat to disappear in the Mets Offensive Revocation Program. 

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re: Bruce's WAR - it's low this season because of the defense. Both UZR and DRS say he's been more than 1 full win below average (in simpler terms - with average defense in RF this year, his WAR would be about 1 win higher right now).

We'll see who else is part of this deal but I don't like the fit at all. I mean really, what's the outfield configuration now? There's no combo of Bruce/Cespedes/Grandy that's going to look pretty out there; that's probably the worst defensive outfield in the Majors by a mile. I guess Bruce is insurance for when Cespedes walks this winter, but even then, I don't like this fit. 

For our sake, we better hope for 2 things: 1) Bruce's 2016 defensive metrics are a blip and he's more of an average or slightly below average defender, and 2) the bounceback at the plate is real. Bruce is a sub-replacement level player if he hits like he did in 2014 and 2015, regardless of where his defense goes.

 

Edited by nmigliore
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5 minutes ago, nmigliore said:

re: Bruce's WAR - it's low this season because of the defense. Both UZR and DRS say he's been more than 1 full win below average (in simpler terms - with average defense in RF this year, his WAR would be about 1 win higher right now).

We'll see who else is part of this deal but I don't like the fit at all. I mean really, what's the outfield configuration now? There's no combo of Bruce/Cespedes/Grandy that's going to look pretty out there; that's probably the worst defensive outfield in the Majors by a mile. I guess Bruce is insurance for when Cespedes walks this winter, but even then, I don't like this fit. 

For our sake, we better hope for 2 things: 1) Bruce's 2016 defensive metrics are a blip and he's more of an average or slightly below average defender, and 2) the bounceback at the plate is real. Bruce is a sub-replacement level player if he hits like he did in 2014 and 2015, regardless of where his defense goes.

 

I'd rather they just rent Bruce.  The idea of him being "insurance" for Cespedes really doesn't sit well with me at all (and sadly I do think this is what the Met thinking is).  And yeah, this reminds me so much of the Gregg Jeffries-era "defense-schmefense, let's just stick a bat wherever" mentality of the late 80s-early 90s Met brass...these pitchers already labor enough as it is.   

We're pretty much in agreement on Bruce.   

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Ken Rosenthal tweeting that the Brew want Herrera in any deal for Lucroy.  Basically means the Mets would probably have to bring back Walker on a multi-year deal, unless they go in an entirely different direction.  Very tough call, but I really can't stand d'Arnaud anymore. 

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Guess it's official now:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/17193260/new-york-mets-acquire-jay-bruce-cincinnati-reds

Would like to know who the other two bodies are.  Good for Nimmo, in that he probably gets the rest of the season in Cincinnati to show that he can he be an everyday player.  That ballpark won't hurt his offense any. 

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3 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Ken Rosenthal tweeting that the Brew want Herrera in any deal for Lucroy.  Basically means the Mets would probably have to bring back Walker on a multi-year deal, unless they go in an entirely different direction.  Very tough call, but I really can't stand d'Arnaud anymore. 

If they want Herrera...give 'em Herrera. Honestly let the kid go somewhere he can play. Nobody knows if he was really in our long term plans anyway and it is really perplexing how he became such a buried/forgotten man. d'Arnaud...all we know is he can't throw, the pitchers hate throwing to him, he gets hurt all the time. He's wildly inconsistent with the bat, he's not even a kid anymore. 

Lucroy + Bruce really helps this offense a lot. It changes everything.

And if these two are not enough to make a run this year, then I'm all for trading one or the other, or both, either this winter or sometime next year to recoup prospects. Both are movable assets 

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