Things Ray Shero Must Not Be Fooled By

[Derlique]

I think we can all argue NJ has exceeded expectations tenfold. Everyone projected them to be a bottom five team but they surprised the masses and ended up being in the thick of things until March. Now that NJ basically has no shot at a playoff birth, it's time to do a little bit of reflecting. There have been some nice stories this year such as, DSP's play since coming over and the defense being one of the top shot suppressors but some of it is smoke and mirrors. Here is some amateur cautionary advice to Ray Shero (if he's listening!).

1) DSP does not belong anywhere near a top 6 role:

I think Shero absolutely robbed Montreal in this deal. Matteau doesnt appear to be a big leaguer while DSP clearly has some nice skills. However, I dont want Shero getting content in rolling with Palmieri and DSP on the right side. I know the guy has 11 pts in 12 games but he's shooting over 25% as a Devil. I like him on the third or fourth line with the ability to play up in a pinch.

2) The defense is all set:

I'm comfortable with 4 of the Devils dmen:

Greene-Larsson

x-Severson

Schlemko-x

John Moore has been garbage since a nice start and Merrill hasn't come close to repeating his solid performance from his rookie year. Whether they get a UFA d or two, or fill a spot internally with a guy like Santini, something has to give.

 

What's on your list?

[fsu1852]

Mike Hoffman, Mikkel Boedker, Kyle Okposo. I would take a look at these guys. I think he should also take a look at one of the forwards from the Oilers

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

I think 2017 is the big offseason, this offseason I want three moves.

Trade Ott 3rd pick to Detroit for Teemu Pulkkinen.

Sign Kris Versteeg.

Sign a play driving offensive defensmen. I still think Santini will step right in, he is better than David Hale for sure.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2016 by Jas0nMacIsaac

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

Not worried about Shero being "fooled" by anything.  We know the deal with non-offensive players who suddenly put up impressive goal totals in short samples based on unsustainable shooting%s, and Shero does too.  Cammalleri will be back in the Top 6 too...would love to see Shero find a way to move him, but who knows who'd be interested in a guy who sneezes and finds himself out four weeks with an upper body injury.  

I also think Shero knows that the Devils weren't quite as "good" as their record, and that Palms and Henrique may have just turned in career years from a pure goal-scoring standpoint.  

[Daniel]

My hope is that if he decides to make a run at landing one of Edmonton's forwards, that it isn't Jordan Eberle (unless of course, it's an absolute steal), although he's the guy that Shero apparently has coveted since his Pittsburgh days.  He just strikes me as one of those guys that if he isn't scoring goals, he isn't doing anything for you. 

['7']

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

My hope is that if he decides to make a run at landing one of Edmonton's forwards, that it isn't Jordan Eberle (unless of course, it's an absolute steal), although he's the guy that Shero apparently has coveted since his Pittsburgh days.  He just strikes me as one of those guys that if he isn't scoring goals, he isn't doing anything for you. 

Any Eberle deal will involve a first round pick and probably a 3rd as well. And perhaps even a prospect on top of that

['7']

Darren Helm for the bottom 6 could be someone we consider.

Okposo over Boedker. Though I have a feeling we're not landing either.

Maybe make a play at Yandle?

[Daniel]

26 minutes ago, '7' said:

Any Eberle deal will involve a first round pick and probably a 3rd as well. And perhaps even a prospect on top of that

Maybe I'm completely out to lunch on this, but I seriously doubt that.  For starters, Edmonton, and more specifically Chiarella if he wants to last more than a couple of more years, cannot be in the business of compiling draft picks.  Their blue-line is atrocious, and it looks like they really struck out badly on Griffin Reinhart, and there's cause for concern with Darnell Nurse already.  I also get the sense there is just this enormous stink on any Edmonton player not named McDavid or Draisatl.  Then you add to the whole mix that Edmonton is in a good spot to get another top-3 pick, where the top three players are all forwards, and two of them are right-wings, and it becomes absolutely clear that finally, something has to give with the forwards they've been stock-piling all this time.

So my guess is that you could get Eberle for Severson and something else the Devils could live without.  Edmonton has just forced themselves into having to sell low.  Is it any surprise that apparently Edmonton struck out on getting Seth Jones, even though they had an arguably better player to offer in RNH?

 

 

[Marshall]

44 minutes ago, '7' said:

Any Eberle deal will involve a first round pick and probably a 3rd as well. And perhaps even a prospect on top of that

 

If they deal with NJ they'll want a defenseman back. I suppose you can argue that they could deal with NJ for other assets, such as picks/prospects, that they can then use to get a defenseman (NJ really have none to give).

[Triumph]

The Devils don't have defensive depth anymore; they can't afford to trade Severson, and certainly not for Eberle.  Good lord that would be an awful trade.

[NJDfan1711]

13 hours ago, Jas0nMacIsaac said:

Sign a play driving offensive defensmen. .

 

 

You mean like Larsson is, and Severson should be?

You always want puck moving d-men, but I feel we have one/two already, and I think at this point we just need reliable stay at home defenseman.  Greene is pretty versatile and can do both, but when he retires that's one less solid d-man we will have back there.  Right now Merrill is turnover prone and too slow, and it doesn't look like Mozik/Warsofsky/Moore are stalwarts.  We need a couple big (but agile) bodies back there capable of clearing the crease and knocking guys off the puck. 

[Daniel]

46 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The Devils don't have defensive depth anymore; they can't afford to trade Severson, and certainly not for Eberle.  Good lord that would be an awful trade.

Just to be clear, I would not trade Severson for Eberle.  I really wouldn't want to trade for Eberle at all, unless it's a steal.  As you said though, unless Chiarelli has another Tyler Seguin moment, the only player on the Devils that makes sense would be Severson. 

[redruM]

Problem is signing UFAs is difficult, expensive and often getting players that have already played through their prime. 

 

I'd rather trade an asset and get RNH then try to sign a 2nd level UFA, because we are NOT getting Stamkos

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

24 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

I hate this line of thinking. I just had an argument with my friend about this the other day-- is there anything other than cynicism leading you to believe that a 25 and a 26 year old will regress? They both had good seasons, but I would argue that with Henrique has stayed healthy and is continuing to develop, and Palmieri is finally seeing top-line minutes. The whole "oh, they are each netting 30, it's gotta be a rabbit-in-a-hat" type thinking is so prevalent on this forum, and it confuses me. I'm not confusing either Rico or Palms with a superstar, but counting on them to get you 50 combined goals next season is reasonable. 

I don't mean this as an attack on you, I'm just curious why our entire forum seems to think Henrique and Palmieri will score 14 goals again next year. 

What I mean by the "career year" thing is that they may not exceed their totals of this season again.  Doesn't mean they can't come close in the years to come...it's more that I'd be careful in assuming that you can automatically pencil both of them in for 30+ each over the next few seasons.  I don't think either one is just going to flat-out disappear.

I'd say 50 or goals from the two of them combined is very reasonable.  60+, not so much.  

[Triumph]

32 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

When you say "any more", are you talking about the fact that they traded Gelinas? Because coming into the season, and not counting on Schlemko even being in the lineup (let alone playing the majority of the year rather well), I'm not quite sure our defensive depth is anywhere remotely as dire as our offensive depth. Sure, it would hurt to lose Severson, but it would hurt even more to go into next season hoping DSP is a top-6 forward and a 19 year old will provide an answer to the team that has been one of the worst offenses in the league for a better part of the last decade. 

You seem to regard offense and defense as totally separate things - they're not, not in hockey.  Regardless, coming into the season the Devils had a bunch of young defensemen who could've shown improvement, and really only one did (Larsson).  Everyone else had a poor season - Gelinas got traded, Merrill looks bad, Moore has been a disaster except in 3 on 3, and Severson hasn't looked better than how he was at the end of last season.  On the minor league front, while guys like Mozik were good, Hraberenka had a lost season.  In a world where Gelinas and Merrill have good seasons and improve considerably and both look like decent NHL defenders, then NJ has defensive depth and can afford to trade one of those guys for something decent.  That's not what happened. 

[Daniel]

5 minutes ago, Triumph said:

You seem to regard offense and defense as totally separate things - they're not, not in hockey.  Regardless, coming into the season the Devils had a bunch of young defensemen who could've shown improvement, and really only one did (Larsson).  Everyone else had a poor season - Gelinas got traded, Merrill looks bad, Moore has been a disaster except in 3 on 3, and Severson hasn't looked better than how he was at the end of last season.  On the minor league front, while guys like Mozik were good, Hraberenka had a lost season.  In a world where Gelinas and Merrill have good seasons and improve considerably and both look like decent NHL defenders, then NJ has defensive depth and can afford to trade one of those guys for something decent.  That's not what happened. 

The one thing to keep in mind is that there are defensemen that will be available in free agency, a few of whom are really good, and enough of whom are adequate. 

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

Steven Santini and Josh Jacobs join the fray next season, Jacobs most likely starting in Albany and Santini, in my opinion, stating in the nHL. I agree, NJ has had trouble the past few years having defensmen get over the hump and evolve into good top 4 defensmen. Does NJ have an offensive puck driving defesmen? No, they haven't had one in years, Matt Taormina was the last real shot NJ took at one. They aren't drafting small defensmen at all. I can't remember the last small all offense defensmen they drafted.

[redruM]

2 hours ago, Jas0nMacIsaac said:

Steven Santini and Josh Jacobs join the fray next season,

I hope this is true

[Derlique]

Here's a question: Let's say NJ ends up picking 11-13, does that pick absolutely have to be a forward? The Devils are in desperate need of LD help in their pipeline as Santini, Jacobs and Mozik are all right handed. If one of the big 3 (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachyov) fall could NJ pick one up and use other assets for a RNH or similar forward?

[Daniel]

3 minutes ago, SMantzas said:

Here's a question: Let's say NJ ends up picking 11-13, does that pick absolutely have to be a forward? The Devils are in desperate need of LD help in their pipeline as Santini, Jacobs and Mozik are all right handed. If one of the big 3 (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachyov) fall could NJ pick one up and use other assets for a RNH or similar forward?

If it's not a BPA strategy, my guess is that the idea is to use the first pick on a forward unless the defenseman is too good to pass up.  Based on reputation, I think Chychrun would probably fall into that category assuming the Devils don't land one of the top three picks, which means they're drafting somewhere between 9 and 12.  Not sure about the other ones you mentioned.

[Derlique]

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

If it's not a BPA strategy, my guess is that the idea is to use the first pick on a forward unless the defenseman is too good to pass up.  Based on reputation, I think Chychrun would probably fall into that category assuming the Devils don't land one of the top three picks, which means they're drafting somewhere between 9 and 12.  Not sure about the other ones you mentioned.

Sergyachov seems to be a late riser a la Provorov and Julovevi has been very good with London all season and played a major role in the Finnish WJC win. I'll be happy with BPA EXCEPT if it's another LW. Would be thrilled with Jost, McLeod or Nylander

[MantaRay]

Aside from Merril, I like our defense - A lot.   It's Moore and Schlemko's first season as starters and they both have great potential.    I think Moore is going to develop into something special.    If we get some offensive help, we won;t have to rely on Schneids having to win every game for us.   We need support upfront in a major way.

[RizzMB30]

Steven Santini and Josh Jacobs join the fray next season, Jacobs most likely starting in Albany and Santini, in my opinion, stating in the nHL. I agree, NJ has had trouble the past few years having defensmen get over the hump and evolve into good top 4 defensmen. Does NJ have an offensive puck driving defesmen? No, they haven't had one in years, Matt Taormina was the last real shot NJ took at one. They aren't drafting small defensmen at all. I can't remember the last small all offense defensmen they drafted.

Marek Zidlicky? I'm not sure why you're equating small to being an all offense defenseman.

All offense defenseman would also describe Eric Gelinas.

If we're going to make small size a requirement for when drafting for defenseman, that just sounds silly. There's excellent defensemen out there who just happen to be undersized.

That being said, I think I understand where you're coming from when you say you'd like a pure offense defenseman, but I don't know if that equates to a puck-moving defenseman. I remember Taormina and actually liked his offense and I think he and Zidlicky were pretty close to pure offense dmen, but were rather liabilities in the d-zone

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[DJ Eco]

This thread really went down a "future moves" rabbit hole haha.. I'll bring it back to the OP's theme; things Shero should not be fooled by:

1) Although it hurts me to say this, I hope he is able to understand that Elias is finished. I can't see him being re-signed, or any reason too unfortunately, and Elias has been one of my favorite Devils of all time. Bringing him back next year will just cloud things up as to how Hynes constructs his lines. I hope Elias understands this and steps away from the game gracefully and into a management role.

2) Bobby Farnham has done everything asked of him and more. But I hope that doesn't cloud anyone's judgment into pencilling him anywhere higher than the 4th line. He's a great piece to build a strong 4th line around. The Islanders' 4th line combined for 55 points so far this season. That's the golden standard and we should aim to build a line that can produce at least half of that; BUT not confuse that with upgrading those players into a 2nd or 3rd role line, like we have in the past (mostly out of necessity/lack of depth).

3) He shouldn't be fooled by Kalinin's low numbers. The kid has done a lot of good things all year and should be brought back next year in a 3rd line role. I think he can be taught and coached into becoming a strong young Devil that'll get better and better each year, he has the tools. I'd like to see him used more on the penalty kill, so we can stop thinking we need to hold onto guys like Gionta for the PK.

4) I hope he's not fooled by Tyler Kennedy's good month last month. I don't think he offers our team anything in the long term, and our energy/attention this offseason would be better served finding one of the dime-a-dozen replacements we can grab for the 3rd/4th line role he occupied this season.

Edited March 30, 2016 by DJ Eco

['7']

Gionta needs to go. Even on the PK he's awful