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How Taylor Hall affects the Plan


Triumph
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I've been very vocal here that the Devils should go into this season using their excessive cap space to buy future draft picks or prospects and should generally sit out from free agency.   The Devils did so with Marc Savard earlier this summer, picking up a 2018 2nd.  Then they traded a shutdown D for one of the top offensive players in the game.  I think they've made themselves 2-3 wins better with that trade, maybe even more given what Hall might do for lower lines.  This ruins the whole 'tanking' plan - the Devils aren't quite a playoff team, but they're making strides in that direction, and with some shrewd moves perhaps they can sneak into the playoffs.

The good news is that Taylor Hall is what I've been talking about this franchise needing - an offensive dynamo who lifts everyone who plays with him.  The bad news is that the Devils' days of being cap space champions will soon be over - they're going to need to get expensive players to patch the holes on the roster.  The biggest hole is the one left by Adam Larsson, and I'm really not sure how many good options there are.

Kevin Shattenkirk - I don't see NJ having the pieces to get him.  St. Louis's window is now, they don't want next year's 1st (nor should NJ be trading 1st round picks).  This would be the best addition, but I can't see how he gets here.

A Cap Casualty - I don't really see any RHD available that would be of interest.  Dennis Wideman is a body and is probably available, but he's also not very good on defense and is loathed by every official in the league now. 

A Free Agent - Jason Demers, Luke Schenn, Roman Polak, Marek Zidlicky - the dropoff is pretty steep here.

So yeah, the first pairing of Greene-Severson, that sounds good.  The second pairing of whatever and whatever - not good.  There's good options for the 3rd pairing - Moore, Merrill, maybe they re-sign Schlemko, and on the right side, I like Mozik and the team seems pretty high on Santini as well.   At left D, there's some trade options available - I like Jason Garrison - and some free agents who might be of interest.  

At forward, it's hard to know what to do - the team still needs a center, preferably one better than Zajac, but I don't see where that's coming from - free agency doesn't have many good options.  Obviously no one's trading that sort of center as a salary cap problem.  

So yeah, the plan, such as it is, means going forward - no more hunting for the franchise forward in the draft; we found him.  It's just hard to know exactly what the next steps are to getting better.

 

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15 minutes ago, sundstrom said:

Shattenkirk for Boucher & 2017 1st. 

 

NJ can give that up for him

Why do they want a 2017 1st round pick?  Their window is now.

14 minutes ago, pattyelias said:

what sort of contract do you think schenn will get?

Not sure, but as a former high pick he's bound to get a lot of offers - I'd guess $2.5M/season at a minimum, maybe $3M.  I don't think he's very good and don't see a reason for NJ to be interested.

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I'm sure the Devils will sign a defenseman who can fill their bottom pair. They have good prospects too as Hasan pointed out in his post. Santini and Jacobs. Zacha and Quennevile up front.

Looking at the current roster, I believe they're a playoff team. I rank them 3rd in the division behind the Pens and Caps. They should be able to score enough goals to win those games now. A great goalie and a better offense should be enough.

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I can't help but feel this just sped up the process. NO ONE (maybe not even Shero 6-7 days ago) accounted for us getting a player like Taylor Hall. We're still below the cap floor, maybe we sign a few shrewd pieces (below 28 years old) here and there to be competitive? To be a strong team and make a run while Andy Greene and Schneider are still at their best? I don't even know anymore, it's so confusing; in a good way. 

24 hours ago, we were still on the track of hoping just ANY ONE of our forward prospects pans out to be 3/4 the player Taylor Hall is in a few years, but even that was an unrealistic pipe dream. And yet, BOOM, here we are; we have a truly elite forward.

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Tri, would you target Okposo to sure up the RW spot? We can rely on our wingers and not centers. Rangers managed to be a cup contender for a few years without a true #1 center.

LW: Hall Cammalleri

RW: Okposo Palmieri

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1 hour ago, sundstrom said:

Shattenkirk for Boucher & 2017 1st. 

 

NJ can give that up for him

In a minute.

I just hope we get him because "Shattenkirk" sounds like a borderline curse word/insult. Like Clutterbuck. 

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there was talk of Emd & Minny for Matt Dumba.  Do we have the pieces to make that happen? Dumba is no Shattenkirk,  but pp man, great wheels, and loves to shoot. we obviously have an abundance on left side.

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I wouldn't rush to overpay any of those UFA D men, and all of them WILL probably be overpaid.

My guess would be that the trade market for mid-tier defensemen is actually going to be good for buyers this upcoming year. With the the expansion draft looming, teams might be willing to lower the asking price on 2nd pairing guys in the worry that they'd lose them for nothing in the expansion draft.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Triumph said:

I've been very vocal here that the Devils should go into this season using their excessive cap space to buy future draft picks or prospects and should generally sit out from free agency.   The Devils did so with Marc Savard earlier this summer, picking up a 2018 2nd.  Then they traded a shutdown D for one of the top offensive players in the game.  I think they've made themselves 2-3 wins better with that trade, maybe even more given what Hall might do for lower lines.  This ruins the whole 'tanking' plan - the Devils aren't quite a playoff team, but they're making strides in that direction, and with some shrewd moves perhaps they can sneak into the playoffs.

The good news is that Taylor Hall is what I've been talking about this franchise needing - an offensive dynamo who lifts everyone who plays with him.  The bad news is that the Devils' days of being cap space champions will soon be over - they're going to need to get expensive players to patch the holes on the roster.  The biggest hole is the one left by Adam Larsson, and I'm really not sure how many good options there are. 

So yeah, the plan, such as it is, means going forward - no more hunting for the franchise forward in the draft; we found him.  It's just hard to know exactly what the next steps are to getting better.

 

In my opinion, your first sentence should still be the direction.  I've never been on the tank bandwagon but I also think there shouldn't be any pressure to win now or make win now type moves for at least another year.   Shero has done an amazing job seizing opportunities to add young top line players in Palmieri and Hall as well as other assets for $.60 on the dollar the last two offseasons while also allowing us to keep our picks to re-stock the cup board that Lou left barren.  I imagine next offseason will be just as crazy with the expansion draft so there shouldn't be any rush to patch the remaining roster holes permanently until then.  Hopefully we can maintain a lot of cap flexibility for another offseason unless there is something we can't pass up.   

Personally, I would like to see Shero make a few shrewd short term UFA signings like Stempniak and Schlemko last year as temporary patches and continue to collect assets where possible using our cap flexibility.  I'm still holding out hope for a Matt Carle + Namestnikov/pick for short term cap space type deal yet this offseason.  I also think you need to see specifically how Zacha and Severson progress this season before you really have any idea how to best fill out the rest of the roster long term.

    

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45 minutes ago, dmann422 said:

I wouldn't rush to overpay any of those UFA D men, and all of them WILL probably be overpaid.

That's my fear.

If the price on Larsson is any indication, there are going to be a lot of teams after the top guys and the bidding war will be insane.

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2 hours ago, Triumph said:

Why do they want a 2017 1st round pick?  Their window is now.

Not sure, but as a former high pick he's bound to get a lot of offers - I'd guess $2.5M/season at a minimum, maybe $3M.  I don't think he's very good and don't see a reason for NJ to be interested.

2017 is next year's draft.  By "their window", you're limiting it to 1 year, saying if they don't win the Cup this year, it's never going to happen? lol no offense but that's insanely narrow-minded.  When people use that term of "window of opportunity" in sports, they're usually referring to a period of like 3-5 years.  Maybe 2-4, but definitely way more than 1 lol

It just makes no sense to say that, especially when they just basically handed the reigns over to Jake Allen, who is a young goalie with a whole career ahead of him

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37 minutes ago, Lateralous said:

 

In my opinion, your first sentence should still be the direction.  I've never been on the tank bandwagon but I also think there shouldn't be any pressure to win now or make win now type moves for at least another year.   Shero has done an amazing job seizing opportunities to add young top line players in Palmieri and Hall as well as other assets for $.60 on the dollar the last two offseasons while also allowing us to keep our picks to re-stock the cup board that Lou left barren.  I imagine next offseason will be just as crazy with the expansion draft so there shouldn't be any rush to patch the remaining roster holes permanently until then.  Hopefully we can maintain a lot of cap flexibility for another offseason unless there is something we can't pass up.   

Personally, I would like to see Shero make a few shrewd short term UFA signings like Stempniak and Schlemko last year as temporary patches and continue to collect assets where possible using our cap flexibility.  I'm still holding out hope for a Matt Carle + Namestnikov/pick for short term cap space type deal yet this offseason.  I also think you need to see specifically how Zacha and Severson progress this season before you really have any idea how to best fill out the rest of the roster long term.

    

It looks like the time for those sorts of deals has passed - teams bought out a lot of guys today and I think most of the major horrible contracts are bought out or traded.

I'm not saying NJ should sign a bunch of 30+ guys or trade their 1st round pick - there's no way they should trade their 1st round pick, this team could easily suck - but that the door is open for them to sign one 30+ guy, or sign a long-term contract.  They can't blow out all their cap space in one season anyway - they're still $24M under the cap and theoretically they have $8M more of space after that.  I just can't see them staying the course and finishing 11th worst or so again.

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How does the expansion draft affect the rebuild? Teams are going to have extra holes in their rosters to fill (and extra cap space to do it) which is going to push up the price of free agents surely? So isn't it better to try and sign players this off season?

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12 minutes ago, Aitchmack said:

How does the expansion draft affect the rebuild? Teams are going to have extra holes in their rosters to fill (and extra cap space to do it) which is going to push up the price of free agents surely? So isn't it better to try and sign players this off season?

The cap won't be affected by expansion.  That's free money for teams - none of it goes to the players.  Now the Canadian dollar, which bottomed out at around $.70, is back up to around $.80, so that helps the cap expand.  Still, it's hard to see it going up a ton, especially if Canadian teams keep missing the playoffs.

To me the expansion draft only helps NJ because they do not have hard decisions.  Who to protect will be easy to figure out.  

The value of players who just started their pro careers should go up.  Vancouver didn't realize this when it traded Jared McCann.

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28 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The cap won't be affected by expansion.  That's free money for teams - none of it goes to the players.  Now the Canadian dollar, which bottomed out at around $.70, is back up to around $.80, so that helps the cap expand.  Still, it's hard to see it going up a ton, especially if Canadian teams keep missing the playoffs.

To me the expansion draft only helps NJ because they do not have hard decisions.  Who to protect will be easy to figure out.  

The value of players who just started their pro careers should go up.  Vancouver didn't realize this when it traded Jared McCann.

I don't think I explained myself very well there. What I meant was that teams losing players to Vegas lose those players salaries from their cap. Thereby giving them cap room, potentially, to pursue FAs that Shero might be hoping to sign and driving up the salary they'll get.

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1 hour ago, Aitchmack said:

I don't think I explained myself very well there. What I meant was that teams losing players to Vegas lose those players salaries from their cap. Thereby giving them cap room, potentially, to pursue FAs that Shero might be hoping to sign and driving up the salary they'll get.

That's a good point.  The Vegas team has to make it to the $59M threshold, which will be challenging.  That will open up free agency some for sure, yeah.

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I think the Taylor Hall trade does mean that Shero has some faith in what Mozik, Severson, and Santini bring to the table.  I think they provide great balance on the right side as in a good mix of play styles and such.  

Greene-Severson
Merrill-Mozik

Moore-Santini
Schlemko

Larsson's minute crunching will be missed, so even if the Devil were to stand pat on defense.  I think we'll be fine.  Let them sink or swim, Schneider will allow us to really scrutinize who gets those minutes.  

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1 minute ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Mozik on the second pairing scares me. Too much uncertainty for a guy who'll be getting pretty significant minutes.

 

Edit: And Merrill + Mozik is slightly terrifying

Oh I understand that the defense pairings I posted are by no means perfect.  Mozik with Moore is equally scary.  Santini is an unknown but I posted the pairing to give a view on what the defense might look like if we stood pat.  (Off of the top of my head.)  

Main point being Shero must have faith in at least some of those bottom 4 guys in the pairing posted.

 

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they should resign schlemko  even if he is another lefty

the hall move pushes talent down, which is exactly what we needed

smith-pelly really is  the unknown and must have a good year for us to make a playoff push

Edited by EdgeControl
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