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Race To The Bottom Thread


Triumph
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The All-Star Break is coming up, and while it appears that the Devils have a chance to make the playoffs, they really don't.  Sportsclubstats gives them a 2.0% chance with their coinflip model and hockey-reference gives them 7.7% before tonight's game.  To that end, losing isn't the worst thing for the team this year.  Currently they sit 5th from the bottom of the NHL and would be 6th in the draft lottery this off-season.  

Here's the bottom of the NHL right now:

nhlstandings124.png

Courtesy of NHL.com.  

Now you can see how bunched up everyone is, but the Devils can realistically finish as low as 28th overall.  They can also go on a run and finish 18th overall, given all the teams who are so close to them in points- that would be a disaster, given what happened last year.  This thread is just for keeping track of losses - while I'm not embracing tanking, I'm not that upset if the Devils lose, either.  

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6 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The All-Star Break is coming up, and while it appears that the Devils have a chance to make the playoffs, they really don't.  Sportsclubstats gives them a 2.0% chance with their coinflip model and hockey-reference gives them 7.7% before tonight's game.  To that end, losing isn't the worst thing for the team this year.  Currently they sit 5th from the bottom of the NHL and would be 6th in the draft lottery this off-season.  

Here's the bottom of the NHL right now:

nhlstandings124.png

Courtesy of NHL.com.  

Now you can see how bunched up everyone is, but the Devils can realistically finish as low as 28th overall.  They can also go on a run and finish 18th overall, given all the teams who are so close to them in points- that would be a disaster, given what happened last year.  This thread is just for keeping track of losses - while I'm not embracing tanking, I'm not that upset if the Devils lose, either.  

I never route for them to lose either and am irritated when they lose like on nights like tonight. Always want them to be progressing and executing within their system.

That said, I would be lying to say that the draft position hasn't been crossing my mind. I have never been convinced that this is a playoff caliber team. I think there are some positives but we really do need more high end, top of the roster talent.

 

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11 hours ago, Chuck the Duck said:

Pretty much.  Leave it to us to pick a year to fall apart and get a top 5 when the draft is considered weak and there is no top end #1. 

Isn't Patrick pretty much a lock for the #1 pick? Certainly not a McDavid or a Matthews though. 

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I've been reading (of course this is early on) that this draft is not very strong. Don't be shocked to see teams give up there 1st rounders for someone like shattenkirk?Hell, Rangers give up 2 for MSL. And another for Keith Yandle. 

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3 hours ago, vadvlfan said:

I've been reading (of course this is early on) that this draft is not very strong. Don't be shocked to see teams give up there 1st rounders for someone like shattenkirk?Hell, Rangers give up 2 for MSL. And another for Keith Yandle. 

Instead of drafting the Rangers just get college free agent drafted by other teams. Which pisses me off.

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The notion that there isn't any top talent in this draft is incorrect, there just isn't anyone on the levels of McDavid, Eichel, Matthews or Laine. I think Patrick, Hischier, and Mittelstadt all have the potential to be 70 point NHL players, maybe Vilardi as well, but the thing that makes this a weak draft is the lack of depth. We have some legitimate studs in the top 10 or so, and then there's a lot of differing opinions. You're not gonna find a consensus 11-30 anywhere because the players in that area are kind of lumped together in the same skill level imo, but if you finish Top 5 or even somewhere around 7 you can still get a very good player in this draft.

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2 hours ago, Antiquated Colorado Rockie said:

Instead of drafting the Rangers just get college free agent drafted by other teams. Which pisses me off.

Don't even get me started...  I'm still pissed that the League gave them a compensatory pick when Cherepanov passed away - they lobbied the League and it gave in, even thought there was no rule saying they were owed anything.  Who does that?  Certainly not the Devils - Lou didn't go crying to the League when we lost Vasyunov (R.I.P.).   Just scummy.  

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1 hour ago, LittleBallofHate said:

Don't even get me started...  I'm still pissed that the League gave them a compensatory pick when Cherepanov passed away - they lobbied the League and it gave in, even thought there was no rule saying they were owed anything.  Who does that?  Certainly not the Devils - Lou didn't go crying to the League when we lost Vasyunov (R.I.P.).   Just scummy.  

I think the league's rationale was that Vasyunov actually played a few games for the Devils, while Cherepanov never played any for the Rangers.  I also think the league also held a vote for the replacement pick for Cherepanov and that there were no objectors.  Though I will admit there might have been some teams who would have, but didn't as they didn't want to appear to be a$$holes.

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19 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

I think the league's rationale was that Vasyunov actually played a few games for the Devils, while Cherepanov never played any for the Rangers.  I also think the league also held a vote for the replacement pick for Cherepanov and that there were no objectors.  Though I will admit there might have been some teams who would have, but didn't as they didn't want to appear to be a$$holes.

Completely retarded, but this is a league that decides games with a skills competition, so not unexpected. 

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6 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

The notion that there isn't any top talent in this draft is incorrect, there just isn't anyone on the levels of McDavid, Eichel, Matthews or Laine. I think Patrick, Hischier, and Mittelstadt all have the potential to be 70 point NHL players, maybe Vilardi as well, but the thing that makes this a weak draft is the lack of depth. We have some legitimate studs in the top 10 or so, and then there's a lot of differing opinions. You're not gonna find a consensus 11-30 anywhere because the players in that area are kind of lumped together in the same skill level imo, but if you finish Top 5 or even somewhere around 7 you can still get a very good player in this draft.

Also, it's still pretty early. It took quite a while before Laine separated himself (with Matthews) from the rest of the pack last year.

I do think Patrick is being underrated for the most part, but admittedly, I haven't followed many of the other prospects.

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7 hours ago, LittleBallofHate said:

Don't even get me started...  I'm still pissed that the League gave them a compensatory pick when Cherepanov passed away - they lobbied the League and it gave in, even thought there was no rule saying they were owed anything.  Who does that?  Certainly not the Devils - Lou didn't go crying to the League when we lost Vasyunov (R.I.P.).   Just scummy.  

That was 100% the right thing to do and being mad about it is very weird.

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The Devils aren't tanking, they just aren't very good.  They shouldn't lose this opportunity, because I think they will be better next year.  And the thing is that 3rd worst and 12th worst are really not separated by a ton right now and the Devils winning a few more games really won't make a difference going forward.

 

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Big night so far, Calgary won, Florida/Tampa Bay was a 3 point game, the Islanders won, and Dallas is ahead of Buffalo right now.  Carolina lost, but they lost to the Kings, who are still somehow within range of the Devils - they're 3 points up with a game in hand.  I'll post the standings when all the relevant action is finished.

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Okay, bad night for the Devils on the ice, but just fantastic for the loss column here.  nhlstandings127.png

 

I'm terrible at image manipulation so I left the Avalanche out of this but who cares, the Devils have zero chance at finishing below them anyway.  

Buffalo and Carolina lost, Winnipeg won, Dallas won, Tampa got an OT loss, the Islanders won, and Florida won.  

Right now sportsclubstats, which works on a coinflip model, I believe - i.e. it just assumes that the Devils are literally as good as their record and simulates the rest of the season as a series of coinflips weighted to how good the Devils are - gives the Devils a 21% chance of finishing 28th, a 16% chance of finishing 27th, and a 13% chance of finishing 26th.  I'd be fine with any of these results and they're basically saying the Devils are even money to finish in one of these spots.  I don't think that's quite true - sportsclubstats' model doesn't realize that Cory Schneider is actually pretty good - but yeah, while I see a lot of complaining that this isn't the year for this, the Devils very badly need one high pick before they swing out of this losing thing. 

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13 hours ago, Antiquated Colorado Rockie said:

Instead of drafting the Rangers just get college free agent drafted by other teams. Which pisses me off.

It's within the rules. I am not saying I agree with it. But if a team can't sign a player, then they become unrestricted. Not like Vesey has been ripping it up. He's been demoted to the fourth line and has been in a funk. 

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