Race To The Bottom Thread

[Lateralous]

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-potential-trades-for-deadlines-3-biggest-names/

Whoa, no way am I sending Severson, Quenneville, a 2nd and a 3rd to the Blues for a signed Shattenkirk.   It's not even so much the overall price as much as I don't see how upgrading Severson to Shattenkirk makes us all that much better.  We need both so I would rather overpay if possible on July 1st.    

[CommonDreads]

3 hours ago, Lateralous said:

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-potential-trades-for-deadlines-3-biggest-names/

Whoa, no way am I sending Severson, Quenneville, a 2nd and a 3rd to the Blues for a signed Shattenkirk.   It's not even so much the overall price as much as I don't see how upgrading Severson to Shattenkirk makes us all that much better.  We need both so I would rather overpay if possible on July 1st.    

Think the guy who wrote this article is undervaluing Severson. Going off the wording in the article, he thinks of Severson in the same ilk as Beaulieu, and Seve is way better than Beaulieu. Don't think I would make that trade either, but really in general I wouldn't want to trade Severson in a package for Shattenkirk. If we were to get Shattenkirk, I would like for the goal to be to solidify our right side for the next 5-7 years as Shattenkirk, Severson, and Santini.

[mfitz804]

8 hours ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Seen a lot of talk about Quincy being moved. Wonder what sort of return he would get?

Addition by subtraction. 

[Nicomo]

9 hours ago, Chimaira_Devil_#9 said:

Seen a lot of talk about Quincy being moved. Wonder what sort of return he would get?

Bag of pucks.

7 hours ago, Lateralous said:

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-potential-trades-for-deadlines-3-biggest-names/

Whoa, no way am I sending Severson, Quenneville, a 2nd and a 3rd to the Blues for a signed Shattenkirk.   It's not even so much the overall price as much as I don't see how upgrading Severson to Shattenkirk makes us all that much better.  We need both so I would rather overpay if possible on July 1st.    

HELL NO!

[vadvlfan]

19 hours ago, Lateralous said:

http://thehockeywriters.com/5-potential-trades-for-deadlines-3-biggest-names/

Whoa, no way am I sending Severson, Quenneville, a 2nd and a 3rd to the Blues for a signed Shattenkirk.   It's not even so much the overall price as much as I don't see how upgrading Severson to Shattenkirk makes us all that much better.  We need both so I would rather overpay if possible on July 1st.    

This is like one of those old AOL trades

[Triumph]

The Devils are still .500.  Where's everyone else (expressed in points above or below .500)?

LAK:  +3

TBL:  +2

PHI:  +2

CAR:  +1

BUF:  +1

24th:  NJD:  0

WIN:  -1

DET:  -2

VAN:  -2

DAL:  -3

 

[Derlique]

Was hoping if NJ lost yesterday, it would've been in regulation. Gotta start worrying about Philly

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

A minor injury to Schneider would bump NJ down a few spots. 

[Daniel]

You see Nolan Patrick starting to fall in a few peoples prospect rankings, some of which have him as low as five.  I know nothing about prospects other than what I read, but it seems that a team could find themselves win a steal getting a player who was the consensus number 1 pick at five or six.  

Although I think the last time that happened was when Larsson and  Courturier were the preseason consensus one and two, and neither has really blown the doors off in the NHL, so who knows.  

[Jas0nMacIsaac]

6 minutes ago, Daniel said:

You see Nolan Patrick starting to fall in a few peoples prospect rankings, some of which have him as low as five.  I know nothing about prospects other than what I read, but it seems that a team could find themselves win a steal getting a player who was the consensus number 1 pick at five or six.  

Although I think the last time that happened was when Larsson and  Courturier were the preseason consensus one and two, and neither has really blown the doors off in the NHL, so who knows.  

Couturier was rushed then developed the same way Staal was in anticipation that an elite 3rd line center is worth more than a soft 2nd line center. The last 8 years a lot of top WHL draft picks have been missing, it could be coincidence or there may not be the creativity in that league that other leagues possess.

Edited February 26, 2017 by Jas0nMacIsaac

[Triumph]

I don't think Couturier was rushed.  He absolutely crushed the Q the season before he left and he played fine in the NHL in his first season.  He's not a better player because he's a bad skater and it's hard to be a top-line player as a bad skater.

Regardless, I can't imagine Patrick falling that far unless teams have health concerns.   

[Derlique]

1 hour ago, Triumph said:

I don't think Couturier was rushed.  He absolutely crushed the Q the season before he left and he played fine in the NHL in his first season.  He's not a better player because he's a bad skater and it's hard to be a top-line player as a bad skater.

Regardless, I can't imagine Patrick falling that far unless teams have health concerns.   

Couturier also has stone hands, which is interesting since he lit up the Q as a 17 and 18 y/o

[CommonDreads]

Re: This year's draft, I think if Patrick is falling in some rankings it's because of the combination of him missing a lot of time earlier in the season and Hischier blowing the doors off of the QMJHL in his absence, but in my mind Patrick should still be the consensus #1, he's been nothing short of lights out since he got back from his injury.

I'm ready to lock down my Top 5 already as:

1. Nolan Patrick, C, Brandon (WHL)
2. Nico Hischier, C, Halifax (QMJHL)
3. Casey Mittelstadt, C/LW, Eden Prairie (USHS)
4. Elias Pettersson, C, Timra (SWE-2)
5. Gabriel Vilardi, C, Windsor (OHL)

I think that's the first talent plateau there, and then there's another plateau between 6-13 I'd say where players are pretty bunched together, although honestly based on where I have some players ranked versus other writers and scouts that plateau I'm speaking of could reach all the way back to around 17. It's a weird draft, I don't necessarily buy into the idea that there's no top tier talent, because I think most of the players in that 2nd plateau should pan out to be 2nd line forwards or 2nd pairing defensemen at least, but there aren't a ton of players that really separate themselves from the pack. The talent level in the mid-range of the 1st round this year is pretty flat I'd say, and I think you're going to see teams pick based on position rather than BPA a lot earlier than normal this year because of that.

[Derlique]

Yesterday was a good night:

We lost

Philly won

Buffalo won

Could've used a Dallas or Vancouver win

[Lateralous]

1 hour ago, SMantzas said:

Yesterday was a good night:

We lost

Philly won

Buffalo won

Could've used a Dallas or Vancouver win

The Hurricanes have a home and home with the Coyotes this weekend.  That's a good opportunity for them to pass us.    Also, the Jets get a Blues team that has lost 4 in a row tonight and the Avalanche tomorrow.   

[Derlique]

Coyotes and Avs are gone. I think we're better than Detroit and Vancouver, so I doubt they pass us. Dallas is 3 games worse in the loss column. I'm assuming Vegas will draft ahead of us, so as long as we can get into the top 5, I'd be happy.

Vegas enters the lottery with the 3rd best odds, right?

[Triumph]

It's going to be hard for the Devils to go up much.  Tampa, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles are now 4 points above .500 and the Devils are a point below.  Basically unless one of those teams implodes it's going to be hard for the Devils to finish anywhere above 22nd.  On the other side, Dallas couldn't even manage one point out of a game they led 3-1 late in the 2nd.

 

22nd:  BUF +1

23rd:  CAR 0

24th:  NJD -1

25th:  DET -1

26th:  WIN -2

27th:  DAL -4

28th:  VAN -4

 

[Devilsfan118]

Wow I don't follow the west too closely admittedly - but what the hell happened to Dallas?  How can you be that bad with Seguin and Benn?
 

So if things go "well" for us, we could finish as low (high) as maybe 26th (5th)?

Edited March 3, 2017 by Devilsfan118

[Triumph]

Sportsclubstats tells us this today:

NJ has a 20% chance of finishing 22nd or higher.

11% chance of finishing 23rd

13% chance of finishing 24th

15% chance of finishing 25th

16% chance of finishing 26th

14% chance of finishing 27th

10% chance of finishing 28th

1% chance of finishing 29th

['7']

There just seems something flawed about this. The Devils go out and play hard every game. If they play terribly down the stretch and sink to the bottom then yes, we'll get a higher pick but doesn't the losing now indicate that we're perhaps further away from contending than we thought we were? And I do understand that the quality of players in the top 5 is usually better than being in the 10-15 block. And that you don't want to be that bubble team forever, never bad enough to draft a franchise changer 
 

But constant losing down the stretch may point to potential goaltending problems down the road, Severson and Merrill not developing well, Miles Wood not growing up. So duff gardens hurrah we collapsed and got the 3 pick but in the process revealed we have 4-5 holes or uncertainties in areas that we were expecting growth and improvement.

Edited March 3, 2017 by '7'

[Triumph]

22 minutes ago, '7' said:

There just seems something flawed about this. The Devils go out and play hard every game. If they play terribly down the stretch and sink to the bottom then yes, we'll get a higher pick but doesn't the losing now indicate that we're perhaps further away from contending than we thought we were? And I do understand that the quality of players in the top 5 is usually better than being in the 10-15 block. And that you don't want to be that bubble team forever, never bad enough to draft a franchise changer 
 

But constant losing down the stretch may point to potential goaltending problems down the road, Severson and Merrill not developing well, Miles Wood not growing up. So duff gardens hurrah we collapsed and got the 3 pick but in the process revealed we have 4-5 holes or uncertainties in areas that we were expecting growth and improvement.

To an extent, sure.  But I don't expect them to collapse down the stretch.  They've been losing all these one-goal games - they'll start winning some of them, too.  They're not really playing any worse or better than they have in the last 40 games.  With 20 games left in the season, it's really not going to matter a whole lot.  Like, it doesn't matter to me if Taylor Hall scores 2 or 10 goals down the stretch, he's the same player either way.

[Antiquated Colorado Rockie]

6 hours ago, '7' said:

There just seems something flawed about this. The Devils go out and play hard every game. If they play terribly down the stretch and sink to the bottom then yes, we'll get a higher pick but doesn't the losing now indicate that we're perhaps further away from contending than we thought we were? And I do understand that the quality of players in the top 5 is usually better than being in the 10-15 block. And that you don't want to be that bubble team forever, never bad enough to draft a franchise changer 
 

But constant losing down the stretch may point to potential goaltending problems down the road, Severson and Merrill not developing well, Miles Wood not growing up. So duff gardens hurrah we collapsed and got the 3 pick but in the process revealed we have 4-5 holes or uncertainties in areas that we were expecting growth and improvement.

I guess that's why I don't root for my team to lose. Sure I am aware that there is a correlation between drafting high and drafting a really good player in the first round but the counter is that losing constantly is indicative of deep problems perhaps in addition to talent: coaching culture, poor development of the organization and of the younger players you have already. I want us to be good on and off the ice, make sensible decisions and make good draft picks when its your turn to draft. If you are well run you could be good for your on end, Lou proved that. That and emotionally I just always cheer for my team.  

[Triumph]

2 hours ago, Antiquated Colorado Rockie said:

I guess that's why I don't root for my team to lose. Sure I am aware that there is a correlation between drafting high and drafting a really good player in the first round but the counter is that losing constantly is indicative of deep problems perhaps in addition to talent: coaching culture, poor development of the organization and of the younger players you have already. I want us to be good on and off the ice, make sensible decisions and make good draft picks when its your turn to draft. If you are well run you could be good for your on end, Lou proved that. That and emotionally I just always cheer for my team.  

Lou built an excellent organization and is deservedly in the Hall of Fame, but just look at all the top picks that led to the Devils' 1st Stanley Cup:

Muller was drafted 2nd overall and was traded for Stephane Richer

MacLean was drafted 6th overall

Brendan Shanahan was drafted 2nd overall and the Devils got Scott Stevens as compensation when he signed with the Blues.

Niedermayer was drafted 3rd overall

Guerin was drafted 5th overall

The Devils became shrewd at finding talent in the lower 1st round or 2nd round, but it's really hard to build a championship team that way, as the Devils found out when those players drafted high either left or retired.  Do I think this team should bottom out? Absolutely not, it's got too much talent for that.  But the draft lottery means that the Devils are 2 and a half times more likely to pick in the top 3 if they finish 27th worst than if they finish 21st worst.  It's a big jump, and all it's going to take is a few extra losses down the stretch here.

 

[Antiquated Colorado Rockie]

1 hour ago, Triumph said:

Lou built an excellent organization and is deservedly in the Hall of Fame, but just look at all the top picks that led to the Devils' 1st Stanley Cup:

Muller was drafted 2nd overall and was traded for Stephane Richer

MacLean was drafted 6th overall

Brendan Shanahan was drafted 2nd overall and the Devils got Scott Stevens as compensation when he signed with the Blues.

Niedermayer was drafted 3rd overall

Guerin was drafted 5th overall

The Devils became shrewd at finding talent in the lower 1st round or 2nd round, but it's really hard to build a championship team that way, as the Devils found out when those players drafted high either left or retired.  Do I think this team should bottom out? Absolutely not, it's got too much talent for that.  But the draft lottery means that the Devils are 2 and a half times more likely to pick in the top 3 if they finish 27th worst than if they finish 21st worst.  It's a big jump, and all it's going to take is a few extra losses down the stretch here.

 

They didn't tank for Neidermayer, they acquired that pick from Toronto, which is much more an example of savvy management. They didn't need to tank for Martin Brodeur (20th) or Danyeko (18th) or Elias (51st) and they sustained a good team for 20 years without drafting high.

I don't disagree with you that high picks give you a better chance of improving, though they aren't a guarantee, they also mean you suck. Zacha was 6th overall and he is the best prospect we have had probably since Parise, so I am not really disagreeing (and it was also a signal that changes were needed and it was about there where Lou was ushered out). My wish is that they first and foremost manage well and develop their players well. Also, it isn't totally a rational thing, I just can't cheer for losses.

[Steven M.]

I still think some are missing the point of the thread. He's not cheering for losses or advocating that we tank. It's just a thread documenting the lower standings. You don't have to root for them to lose to lose. They do it well enough on their own unfortunately.