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Race To The Bottom Thread


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13 minutes ago, Derek21 said:

It's within the rules. I am not saying I agree with it. But if a team can't sign a player, then they become unrestricted. Not like Vesey has been ripping it up. He's been demoted to the fourth line and has been in a funk. 

It is, I just personally disagree with it in principle that a good college player can end up with the almost the same rights as a UFA. And to top it off the Rangers seem to be the biggest benefactor. Frankly I am glad Vesey has fallen off but he does look to have some promise for them.

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6 hours ago, Triumph said:

Buffalo and Carolina lost, Winnipeg won, Dallas won, Tampa got an OT loss, the Islanders won, and Florida won.  

Right now sportsclubstats, which works on a coinflip model, I believe - i.e. it just assumes that the Devils are literally as good as their record and simulates the rest of the season as a series of coinflips weighted to how good the Devils are - gives the Devils a 21% chance of finishing 28th, a 16% chance of finishing 27th, and a 13% chance of finishing 26th.  I'd be fine with any of these results and they're basically saying the Devils are even money to finish in one of these spots.  I don't think that's quite true - sportsclubstats' model doesn't realize that Cory Schneider is actually pretty good - but yeah, while I see a lot of complaining that this isn't the year for this, the Devils very badly need one high pick before they swing out of this losing thing. 

After last night, though I won't actively root for every Devils' opponent to win, last night was a perfect example of why I can't root for them to overachieve down the stretch.  Last night, they tried.  They try in a lot of games...more than they're given credit for, really.  But they're just not good enough, and this group won't ever be.

So I don't need to see Palmieri and Henrique puck-luck their way into 30-goal seasons...they're perfectly average players who are what they are.  I know Cory can be terrific and often is, so if this is his season to turn in a down year where the guys in front of him aren't terribly good, so be it.  I don't need to see every last win and point squeezed out of this bunch.  They get smacked down a lot against better competition, and it's not going to change in 2016-17.  So yeah, I'm OK with the team racking up losses from here on out...it won't be fun to watch over the next 32 games if that's what happens, but 32 games will feel like nothing if an overall rotten season now helps this team improve for next season and beyond. 

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3 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

it won't be fun to watch over the next 32 games if that's what happens, but 32 games will feel like nothing if an overall rotten season now helps this team improve for next season and beyond. 

To me, the biggest thing is that, while 32 games may not feel like a lot when it's over, especially if we DO improve next year (still up in the air, of course), 32 games is still almost half a season, so you can look at it both ways and it can feel like an eternity.  Bottom line is, we shouldn't be in this position --having to give up on the season in late January.   And like others have said before, even if most of those next 32 games turn into losses, like others have pointed out, there's probably not a whole lot picking between #3 and #15 will do in terms of drastically altering out team.  I mean if you think about it, draft positioning really only matters, in any given year, int he first round.  Because once the first 30 picks are made, theoretically, well, actually, no, realistically, everyone has already had a chance to pick, and therefore in the 2nd round and later it's anyone guess or choice who they want to take.  Obviously in real simple terms being at the beginning of the round is a little better because you get to pick earlier than others, but the point remains that it means less and less as each round goes by.  Plus, it's extremely rare that you find a guy in the later rounds who is gonna immediately light it up the following year, so again I really don't see how picking earlier after losing most of the next 32 games is gonna somehow make it easier to swallow.  I'd rather see us try and be competitive in the next 32, because losing the majority of them isn't gonna change all much of what happens next.  Look at the Penguins for example.  It takes years and years of losing, and losing bad, for it to make a true impact.  Think the early-mid 2000s, when they were garbage and cellar dwellars.  They had high picks all the time and those picks finally and eventually materialized into a team full of talent.  But it's not like any one year put them over the hump and suddenly turned them around.

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18 hours ago, nessus said:

Also, it's still pretty early. It took quite a while before Laine separated himself (with Matthews) from the rest of the pack last year.

I do think Patrick is being underrated for the most part, but admittedly, I haven't followed many of the other prospects.

I think Hischier's season is trending a lot like Laine last year.  I also think that drafts get underrated a little bit in years when there are so few top end guys playing in the OHL (Tippet and Vilardi and maybe Hague?).  IMO people will be a lot more excited about this draft once we get to June.      

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1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

To me, the biggest thing is that, while 32 games may not feel like a lot when it's over, especially if we DO improve next year (still up in the air, of course), 32 games is still almost half a season, so you can look at it both ways and it can feel like an eternity.  Bottom line is, we shouldn't be in this position --having to give up on the season in late January.   And like others have said before, even if most of those next 32 games turn into losses, like others have pointed out, there's probably not a whole lot picking between #3 and #15 will do in terms of drastically altering out team.  I mean if you think about it, draft positioning really only matters, in any given year, int he first round.  Because once the first 30 picks are made, theoretically, well, actually, no, realistically, everyone has already had a chance to pick, and therefore in the 2nd round and later it's anyone guess or choice who they want to take.  Obviously in real simple terms being at the beginning of the round is a little better because you get to pick earlier than others, but the point remains that it means less and less as each round goes by.  Plus, it's extremely rare that you find a guy in the later rounds who is gonna immediately light it up the following year, so again I really don't see how picking earlier after losing most of the next 32 games is gonna somehow make it easier to swallow.  I'd rather see us try and be competitive in the next 32, because losing the majority of them isn't gonna change all much of what happens next.  Look at the Penguins for example.  It takes years and years of losing, and losing bad, for it to make a true impact.  Think the early-mid 2000s, when they were garbage and cellar dwellars.  They had high picks all the time and those picks finally and eventually materialized into a team full of talent.  But it's not like any one year put them over the hump and suddenly turned them around.

Draft positioning matters in every round.  It just makes it more likely that you get the guy that you want.  Teams rarely reveal their draft board and so you don't really have any idea whether a 'team's guy' got snapped up before they had a chance at him, or what.   

Drafting between #3 and #15 is a huge difference in terms of the expected value of the player you will get.  By Eric T's calculations here, you would need basically 2 #15 overall picks to equal the value of the #3 pick.  

The Devils don't have a lot of time here.  Schneider is 31 in two months.  Taylor Hall has 3 more years after this one before he is eligible to be an unrestricted free agent.  This off-season is enormous for Shero and having a top 5 pick would help things along quite a lot (probably).  It should've happened last year, not just because the draft board was better, but because the team was worse last year.  So be it.  This year's fine.  Then next year to turn towards the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

To me, the biggest thing is that, while 32 games may not feel like a lot when it's over, especially if we DO improve next year (still up in the air, of course), 32 games is still almost half a season, so you can look at it both ways and it can feel like an eternity.  Bottom line is, we shouldn't be in this position --having to give up on the season in late January.   And like others have said before, even if most of those next 32 games turn into losses, like others have pointed out, there's probably not a whole lot picking between #3 and #15 will do in terms of drastically altering out team.  I mean if you think about it, draft positioning really only matters, in any given year, int he first round.  Because once the first 30 picks are made, theoretically, well, actually, no, realistically, everyone has already had a chance to pick, and therefore in the 2nd round and later it's anyone guess or choice who they want to take.  Obviously in real simple terms being at the beginning of the round is a little better because you get to pick earlier than others, but the point remains that it means less and less as each round goes by.  Plus, it's extremely rare that you find a guy in the later rounds who is gonna immediately light it up the following year, so again I really don't see how picking earlier after losing most of the next 32 games is gonna somehow make it easier to swallow.  I'd rather see us try and be competitive in the next 32, because losing the majority of them isn't gonna change all much of what happens next.  Look at the Penguins for example.  It takes years and years of losing, and losing bad, for it to make a true impact.  Think the early-mid 2000s, when they were garbage and cellar dwellars.  They had high picks all the time and those picks finally and eventually materialized into a team full of talent.  But it's not like any one year put them over the hump and suddenly turned them around.

I'm not calling for an outright obvious tank-job, but I'm not going to be excited if the Devils go, say, 17-13-2 or something like that from here on out, based on puck luck and a couple guys overachieving wildly, to finish a few games over a .500 point%.  It's also fair to note that throughout the draft, at the least the Devils will be picking closer to the top of each round if they suck from here on out. 

Look, the Devils could strike out on every single pick they make in the upcoming draft, but right now I'm in "every little bit could help mode", and that starts with draft position. 

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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I'm not calling for an outright obvious tank-job, but I'm not going to be excited if the Devils go, say, 17-13-2 or something like that from here on out, based on puck luck and a couple guys overachieving wildly, to finish a few games over a .500 point%.  It's also fair to note that throughout the draft, at the least the Devils will be picking closer to the top of each round if they suck from here on out. 

Look, the Devils could strike out on every single pick they make in the upcoming draft, but right now I'm in "every little bit could help mode", and that starts with draft position. 

At least we're virtually guaranteed the first pick in the 3rd round- thanks for that Gelinas deal Colorado! [emoji1][emoji106]

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6 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

At least we're virtually guaranteed the first pick in the 3rd round- thanks for that Gelinas deal Colorado! emoji1.pngemoji106.png

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The positives aren't too many right now but one for me is that the Avs are worse than the Devils.

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20 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

At least we're virtually guaranteed the first pick in the 3rd round- thanks for that Gelinas deal Colorado! emoji1.pngemoji106.png

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Even better since NJ's own third-rounder was pissed away in the deal for Ruutu.  Two second-rounders this year for NJ...Boston's and the Devils'.

Two seconds in 2018 as well.

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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Even better since NJ's own third-rounder was pissed away in the deal for Ruutu.  Two second-rounders this year for NJ...Boston's and the Devils'.

Yep, good assets to have. Can use those picks or package one or two of them in a deal for a top-6 forward or a top-4 defenseman.

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23 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Yep, good assets to have. Can use those picks or package one or two of them in a deal for a top-6 forward or a top-4 defenseman.

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Ray's strong suit seems to be trading, I am really hoping he can pull off a deal like this towards the deadline.

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7 minutes ago, Antiquated Colorado Rockie said:

Ray's strong suit seems to be trading, I am really hoping he can pull off a deal like this towards the deadline.

Yup either that or at the end of the year leading up or at the draft.  There is no way the Devils will hang onto all those picks by the time the Devils make their picks.

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Ray's strong suit seems to be trading, I am really hoping he can pull off a deal like this towards the deadline.

I would think there aren't any major deals at the deadline, a deal for a big piece like a top 6 forward or top 4 D will most likely come in the offseason. I'm thinking probably at the draft.

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1 hour ago, MadDog2020 said:

I would think there aren't any major deals at the deadline, a deal for a big piece like a top 6 forward or top 4 D will most likely come in the offseason. I'm thinking probably at the draft.

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Yeah, you're probably right. I am just impatient for this team to get better I guess.

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On ‎1‎/‎28‎/‎2017 at 3:06 PM, NJDevils1214 said:

Its got to get worse before it gets better. I feel like the team has been postponing this downfall for some time now. It should have happened a while ago. If it did we might have ended up with Eichel...I'm a dreamer. 

I think Lou was postponing, more than anyone else...he still had two big members of the old guard there (Brodeur and Elias), and as long as those two were here, he was going to keep trying to make the playoffs...and it's been discussed before, but I think 2012 strongly influenced his approach...especially after a strong year-and-a-half of play (Devils went 76-38-9 after that 10-29-2 trainwreck of a 2010-11 first half, and then went to the SCF of course).  He probably saw that first half of 2010-11 as some kind of odd hiccup, more than a sign that the empire might indeed be starting to crumble. 

I don't think Shero is in the same mode at all...he hasn't really gone for any Band-Aid type signings...he's trying to get by with some low cost bodies (he clearly thought a little more of Lovejoy, who unfortunately isn't working), and trying to add some upper-round picks for flexibility.  It will be interesting to see how he handles Cory in the next couple of seasons, if the team isn't getting much better, but Cory is still playing well (I know this season overall hasn't been great, but I don't think he's on the decline).  Would he ever ask Cory to waive his NTC?  That's a question that's a least a couple of years away from getting asked though.   

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On 1/26/2017 at 8:25 AM, vadvlfan said:

I've been reading (of course this is early on) that this draft is not very strong. Don't be shocked to see teams give up there 1st rounders for someone like shattenkirk?Hell, Rangers give up 2 for MSL. And another for Keith Yandle. 

A playoff team might give up a low first rounder for him, but that's about it.  MSL and Yandle both had additional years on their current deals.  Shattenkirk is a two to three month rental.

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4 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I think Lou was postponing, more than anyone else...he still had two big members of the old guard there (Brodeur and Elias), and as long as those two were here, he was going to keep trying to make the playoffs...and it's been discussed before, but I think 2012 strongly influenced his approach...especially after a strong year-and-a-half of play (Devils went 76-38-9 after that 10-29-2 trainwreck of a 2010-11 first half, and then went to the SCF of course).  He probably saw that first half of 2010-11 as some kind of odd hiccup, more than a sign that the empire might indeed be starting to crumble. 

I don't think Shero is in the same mode at all...he hasn't really gone for any Band-Aid type signings...he's trying to get by with some low cost bodies (he clearly thought a little more of Lovejoy, who unfortunately isn't working), and trying to add some upper-round picks for flexibility.  It will be interesting to see how he handles Cory in the next couple of seasons, if the team isn't getting much better, but Cory is still playing well (I know this season overall hasn't been great, but I don't think he's on the decline).  Would he ever ask Cory to waive his NTC?  That's a question that's a least a couple of years away from getting asked though.   

Lou wasn't really postponing.  He just didn't really have anyone that another team was willing to give you for anything of significance.  But even if he did, the players/picks you get back in those deals tend not to be the steals people think they are at first.  So I'd have to go back and check, but the first round picks that Tampa got for MSL haven't turned into much thus far, and don't look like they're going to set the world on fire.  I don't think Arizona got anyone that great with the first rounder they got for Yandle, and Duclair was recently demoted to the AHL (it says a lot if you can't manage to keep a roster spot on a bad team).  

So yeah, I suppose that Lou could have traded Clarkson at the deadline, and could have decided not to give up that 4th/5tth? pick for Steve Sullivan.  The smart money says though that it wouldn't really change where the Devils currently stand.  (It's also pretty clear that Lou wanted to trade Marty, but wasn't being offered anything in return other than a bag of pucks).

It gives me another opportunity to say that the worst move that Lou made as Devils GM was keeping the first round pick in 2012. 

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44 minutes ago, Daniel said:

A playoff team might give up a low first rounder for him, but that's about it.  MSL and Yandle both had additional years on their current deals.  Shattenkirk is a two to three month rental.

He won't get as much as MSL or Yandle, but if he is dealt Shattenkirk will be the marquee trade deadline target. In the last 2 years the Hawks have given up a first and prospect each for Andrew Ladd and Antoine Vermette, I think it will take more than a first to get Shattenkirk, like a decent prospect as well.

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1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Lou wasn't really postponing.  He just didn't really have anyone that another team was willing to give you for anything of significance.  But even if he did, the players/picks you get back in those deals tend not to be the steals people think they are at first.  So I'd have to go back and check, but the first round picks that Tampa got for MSL haven't turned into much thus far, and don't look like they're going to set the world on fire.  I don't think Arizona got anyone that great with the first rounder they got for Yandle, and Duclair was recently demoted to the AHL (it says a lot if you can't manage to keep a roster spot on a bad team).  

So yeah, I suppose that Lou could have traded Clarkson at the deadline, and could have decided not to give up that 4th/5tth? pick for Steve Sullivan.  The smart money says though that it wouldn't really change where the Devils currently stand.  (It's also pretty clear that Lou wanted to trade Marty, but wasn't being offered anything in return other than a bag of pucks).

It gives me another opportunity to say that the worst move that Lou made as Devils GM was keeping the first round pick in 2012. 

Lou dealt a 7th for Sully, and it was the ultimate "What the hell, why not?" kind of deal.  No risk for what was going to amount to a handful of games, and that's what the Devils got.  I never had any problem with that deal.   

I was thinking more along the Jagr/Ryder (and later Havlat, among others) kinds of deals...Havlat was a potential bargain move who didn't cost the Devils much in terms of cash, but if Lou was ever thinking "OK, we're really going to take a step back because I've taken this as far as I can go with what's here", then maybe he doesn't sign those players.  But Lou was in a tough spot after Kovy bailed, even if he supposedly saw it coming. 

I'm not really knocking too many of Lou's moves, and I actually understood why he hung onto Clarkson (Devils were in the hunt at the time, though it very quickly went to sh!t).  I'm more saying that I think it would've taken a LOT for Lou to ever stop trying to add pieces to a declining team with an aging and shrinking nucleus.  There were never enough bad years after the "Only missed the playoffs three times since 1987-88" seasons for him to realize that there wasn't going to be any quick fixes out there to make up for the poor drafts and general lack of talent throughout the organization.  And I can understand that, in that he was probably thinking "We were a SC Finalist in 2012, we're not that far away!"  He was as used to the success (and to having the answers) as much as anyone.  A lot of the reason he just couldn't be here anymore.     

Edited by Colorado Rockies 1976
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3 minutes ago, Toasterleavins said:

Speaking of the bottom and the draft, anyone know a site where I can get a list of what draft picks NHL teams posess, including trades? Trying to find out how many picks we have and where we have them in 2017 and 2018.

Capfriendly.com will show you what draft picks each team has. I think after the Fiddler trade the Devils have either 9 or 10 picks 

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5 minutes ago, Toasterleavins said:

Speaking of the bottom and the draft, anyone know a site where I can get a list of what draft picks NHL teams posess, including trades? Trying to find out how many picks we have and where we have them in 2017 and 2018.

http://www.prosportstransactions.com/hockey/DraftTrades/Years/

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