The NJ Offseason Thread

[DevsMan84]

16 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Lmfao. Advanced stats- the most overrated bullsh!t in sports.


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And the people who constantly use them hold onto them like a security blanket.

[MadDog2020]

And the people who constantly use them hold onto them like a security blanket.

If you could put me in charge of all levels of hockey for one day and told me I could do anything I wanted, but whatever I did would be irreversible, the first thing I'd do is get rid of the advanced stat bullsh!t. Out. Goodbye. No longer a factor. It's overrated, and it does nothing but lead to paralysis by analysis (And for the record, the next thing I'd do is ban that asshat offsides challenge that all the idiot GM's seem intent on doubling down on).


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[mfitz804]

2 hours ago, '7' said:

Yep I'm sure he's better than 54.5% of other C's as a play driver who has less than 40% of his zone starts in the eastern hemisphere while the moon is in retrograde. So it's just bad shooting luck. Clearly it won't continue.

Mike Brown can probably give us a stat that disproves this.

Just kidding, brotha

[Triumph]

If there were an advanced stat that predicted how morons would react to them, it'd get the idiotic impressions right 100% of the time.

[Daniel]

6 hours ago, MadDog2020 said:

Yeah Stevens wasn't 'rah rah' by any means. He was 'do your job right or I'll fvcking kill you'.


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Probably had more to do with Stevens being one of the best ever at his position. 

Goes to my belief that the captain should be one of your best two or three players, depending on various circumstances.

Of course, it doesn't really matter all that much.  I think the Oilers would still have made the playoffs and had the same record if Lucic, instead of McDavid were the captain.

[nessus]

The thing with "advanced stats" is that they aren't supposed to be a gold standard. Things like Corsi can be a good predictor of players that perform well, but lots of other factors need to be taken into account. Josefson is proof of that. Maybe there will be a time where he puts it all together, who knows; but it really isn't looking like that.

IMO, here's an analogy: looking at a player who has good speed, passing, shooting accuracy, and strength - looks like many of the pieces needed to be a good player. But without hockey sense, you've got nothing more than Nail Yakupov.

I feel like with Josefson, he excels in certain areas of the game that are reflected in advanced stats. But with a guy who has had trouble finishing, whether due to low confidence or whatever it is, the advanced stats aren't consistent with the level of performance.

[CarpathianForest]

Advanced stats?!?! Take that stuff elsewhere, College Boy! BTW Shero will just sign more former Pens and WBS guys. It's pretty evident.

[Nicomo]

31 minutes ago, CarpathianForest said:

Advanced stats?!?! Take that stuff elsewhere, College Boy! BTW Shero will just sign more former Pens and WBS guys. It's pretty evident.

When's Malkin's contract up?

[vadvlfan]

Maybe there was merit to Lou having a "stoolie" in the locker room (old Devils trainer that was canned). i have a feeling a couple/few of our players are not liked by teammates. They sure as hell weren't playing for each other out there!

[DevsMan84]

18 hours ago, nessus said:

The thing with "advanced stats" is that they aren't supposed to be a gold standard. Things like Corsi can be a good predictor of players that perform well, but lots of other factors need to be taken into account. Josefson is proof of that. Maybe there will be a time where he puts it all together, who knows; but it really isn't looking like that.

IMO, here's an analogy: looking at a player who has good speed, passing, shooting accuracy, and strength - looks like many of the pieces needed to be a good player. But without hockey sense, you've got nothing more than Nail Yakupov.

I feel like with Josefson, he excels in certain areas of the game that are reflected in advanced stats. But with a guy who has had trouble finishing, whether due to low confidence or whatever it is, the advanced stats aren't consistent with the level of performance.

The thing is a lot of the advanced stats people tend to live or die by them and make bold statements/predictions off of them.

Of course when the actual results differ from that they always seem to blame it either on the player being "lucky" or "unlucky."

[Daniel]

34 minutes ago, DevsMan84 said:

The thing is a lot of the advanced stats people tend to live or die by them and make bold statements/predictions off of them.

Of course when the actual results differ from that they always seem to blame it either on the player being "lucky" or "unlucky."

Either that, or they use them to make claims that any fan who watches the sport somewhat regularly can figure out: Crosby, Malkin and McDavid are really good or David Clarkson won't come close to repeating his 30 goal performance.  They also make unprovable and ultimately useless points like Erik Karlsson deserved to win the Norris over Doughty.

That said, they can be useful when gauging a player's trade value or contract/dollar value, or at least you would want as much information as possible when making important moves like that.  So yeah, I'd want to know as much as I could about Shattenkiirk before deciding to offer him an obscene amount of money.  The same way, I'd want to know if Taylor Hall is more than a guy who puts up a lot of points before trading for him. 

And even though it isn't really "advanced stats," but more of an observation that conventional wisdom denied for a long time, the league seems to have come around to the idea that the only defenseman you draft in the first or second rounds are those that have put up a lot of points at the amateur level, especially in the CHL (point totals seem to be lower for the US Development Team).  Basically, you can attribute the Rangers not winning a Cup in the past five or six years on their scouts drafting a defenseman for "toughness" in the first round (Dylan McIlrath) instead of someone like Fowler or Tarasanko.  These days, McIlrath wouldn't sniff the late second round.

Similarly, the only teams that draft goalies in the first round now are those that otherwise have a pretty complete roster and set of prospects and are willing to gamble.

[Satans Hockey]

I don't knock them or the people who like advanced stats but I personally don't care about them. I don't think there is anything wrong with teams using a combination of the old fashion eye test and some advanced stats though. 

[Jerzey]

As far as advanced stats go I think it's good to have all options available. Every bit of information helps whether you use them or not.

[Satans Hockey]

On Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 6:18 PM, mfitz804 said:

Mike Brown can probably give us a stat that disproves this.

Just kidding, brotha

To be fair, he is probably the reason half the board hates advanced stats lol

Edited April 13, 2017 by Satans Hockey

[Jersey Sure]

There has been so much focus on the draft..where we pick, who we should pick, will we win the lottery.  Sometimes it seems that people forget that Ray Shero went out and traded for a #1 overall pick who is really good, needs no learning curve, and you know what you have.

If Ray Shero doesn't get some players in here to give him support while he is still in his prime and has 3 years left on his contract that's just bad.  Because if this team is heading in some direction next year it wouldn't shock me if Hall very quietly asks to be moved.  And that 3 years is really 2 because if he isn't signed going into his final year then what's the point.

We have a #1 overall pick on our roster and everyone seems more interested in this year's pick in what is considered a meh draft.  Get this guy some support.  

[Jersey Sure]

10 minutes ago, Jersey Sure said:

There has been so much focus on the draft..where we pick, who we should pick, will we win the lottery.  Sometimes it seems that people forget that Ray Shero went out and traded for a #1 overall pick who is really good, needs no learning curve, and you know what you have.

If Ray Shero doesn't get some players in here to give him support while he is still in his prime and has 3 years left on his contract that's just bad.  Because if this team is heading in some direction next year it wouldn't shock me if Hall very quietly asks to be moved.  And that 3 years is really 2 because if he isn't signed going into his final year then what's the point.

We have a #1 overall pick on our roster and everyone seems more interested in this year's pick in what is considered a meh draft.  Get this guy some support.  

Typo--if this team isn't heading in some direction next year.

[Nicomo]

11 minutes ago, Jersey Sure said:

There has been so much focus on the draft..where we pick, who we should pick, will we win the lottery.  Sometimes it seems that people forget that Ray Shero went out and traded for a #1 overall pick who is really good, needs no learning curve, and you know what you have.

If Ray Shero doesn't get some players in here to give him support while he is still in his prime and has 3 years left on his contract that's just bad.  Because if this team is heading in some direction next year it wouldn't shock me if Hall very quietly asks to be moved.  And that 3 years is really 2 because if he isn't signed going into his final year then what's the point.

We have a #1 overall pick on our roster and everyone seems more interested in this year's pick in what is considered a meh draft.  Get this guy some support.  

Easier said than done. Other than Shattenkirk, who do you propose Shero go after this summer? Who on the Devils would you be willing to move to bring back anything decent? 

[Jersey Sure]

Just now, Nicomo said:

Easier said than done. Other than Shattenkirk, who do you propose Shero go after this summer? Who on the Devils would you be willing to move to bring back anything decent? 

I'm hoping that the expansion draft is able to do some things or cherry picking a Cap Strapped team.  Maybe a trade that we don't see.  But I don't get paid to improve the team, Shero does.

But I would ask why would you trade for this player if you don't have a plan to improve the on ice product while improving your prospects?  You only have him for a finite time and he wasn't drafted by this organization.

[mfitz804]

2 hours ago, Satans Hockey said:

To be fair, he is probably the reason half the board hates advanced stats lol

Oh I agree, its hogwash. But it's fun to read along with people's reactions.

What I enjoy about him is, he don't care. He likes his stats, he posts them, he believes in them, and he doesn't care who disagrees.

Way to be an individual my man. 

[Devilsfan118]

3 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Easier said than done. Other than Shattenkirk, who do you propose Shero go after this summer? Who on the Devils would you be willing to move to bring back anything decent? 

Henrique.

The more I think about it the more it makes sense.

[Nicomo]

11 minutes ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Henrique.

The more I think about it the more it makes sense.

Depends what he'd bring back. I personally would like to keep him unless it's too good a deal to pass up. 

[2ELIAS6]

1 minute ago, Nicomo said:

Depends what he'd bring back. I personally would like to keep him unless it's too good a deal to pass up. 

I don't think we can just afford to be moving out the few only goal scorers we actually have, if he went he would have to be part of a package that would bring back something better in return..we are not moving him for picks thats for sure.

[CommonDreads]

If we were to move Henrique, I wonder if Nashville would be interested in a swap for Ellis or Ekholm if they're worried about keeping their defense for the expansion draft. That's the kind of trade I'd want for Rico - similar aged #3 or #4 defenseman.

[Nicomo]

9 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

If we were to move Henrique, I wonder if Nashville would be interested in a swap for Ellis or Ekholm if they're worried about keeping their defense for the expansion draft. That's the kind of trade I'd want for Rico - similar aged #3 or #4 defenseman.

Ellis played a great game tonight. 

[Daniel]

24 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

If we were to move Henrique, I wonder if Nashville would be interested in a swap for Ellis or Ekholm if they're worried about keeping their defense for the expansion draft. That's the kind of trade I'd want for Rico - similar aged #3 or #4 defenseman.

You gotta do what you gotta do, and there were plenty of times where Henrique drove me nuts this season, but I'd rather not trade him unless it's a lopsided return.    For a team that needs to score more goals in the worst way, I don't love the idea of parting with someone who's a pretty good bet for around 20 goals a year.