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Based on how everyone in hockey told us the lead up to the expansion draft was going to be one of the craziest offseason events we've ever witnessed, sure it's disappointing that we're not at least si

Two days ago, this was a pathetic draft class that we wanted no part of other than Shattenkirk. Now, the sky is falling because we lost out on him since he's going to realize his 15 year old wet dream

So... Detroit... 

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Yeah, in the end, this is still a rebuild, and not terribly far into it, as Lou was Band-Aiding.  I love that Shero dumped Cam and DSP.  I can take a bad team that has a collection of young developing players with upside a lot more than I can one full of overpaid declining deadwood...obviously, it's not like all of the young players the Devils have are guarantees, but better some of them get a chance, than pumping dry wells, or signing seen-better-days vets.

Unfortunately, the only really worthwhile big-time juicy UFA move would've been signing Shattenkirk (I would've sucked up the final two seasons of a seven-year deal as the painful cost of doing biz in UFA, but that didn't matter; Shattenkirk wanted the Rangers and vice-versa...just nothing that could be done about it).  No one else worth overpaying for in a sh!tty UFA market, for the sake of making a move.  Just to throw a name out there, I want no part of Radulov at the money and term he's supposedly asking for...he's never been anywhere near as good in the NHL as he's been in the KHL.  I can't get on Shero for not making something big happen if it's just not there right this second.  At the very least, Shero has a possible chip in Kovy...let me see what he does with it.

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57 minutes ago, Chuck the Duck said:

Don't get me wrong.  I agree that Shero should not be blamed as I'm glad he didn't overreact when we lost out on Shattenkirk by signing someone just for the sake of it.  Other than Shatty, there is basically nobody on the market worth the money.  The thing I found interesting was that the Devils valued him much less then everyone expected.  They clearly didn't see him as a long term #1 or 2, otherwise they would have made the 7 year offer and basically forced his hand into leaving $20 million on the table to play with the Rags.  In the end, Shero refused to make the mistake that could have come back to haunt us 4 or 5 years from now.  

However, he made numerous statements since the season ended about upgrading the D and, specifically, discussed using his draft picks to upgrade the position.  By him failing to do that in any meaningful way, when combined with what happened yesterday, I see where some of the frustration comes from.  That said, I like the fact he is looking at this with a long term perspective.  He's not forcing things the way Lou did towards the end of his tenure here.  we all knew this was going to be a lengthy rebuild in order to have it done right.  Getting the #1 pick helps it along, but it doesn't alter the timeframe that significantly.  Hopefully Shero can figure out a way to get Kovy to CBJ in exchange for Murray.  

I think what it boils down to is that Shero (and the rest of the league) anticipated there to by far much more movement prior to and following the expansion draft. The reality is that there really wasn't much movement at all. Most of the teams we thought would have to move a defenseman or two stayed pat. There's been a couple deals where I've been like dang, wish we were in on that, but nothing too crazy.

As far as free agency goes... there was a VERY telling quote from Ray on breakup day. I actually listened to his exit interview with media as I drove in to work today because I wanted to find it.

https://www.nhl.com/devils/video/njd-breakup-day-2017-shero/t-277437418/c-51407003 go to the 10:30, 11ish minute mark if interested.

Paraphrasing here, but essentially he is talking about with regards to free agency, how he wants to do it right and how there are no shortcuts. He specifically mentions last year's top FA's were Yandle and Goligoski, yet Florida and Arizona are "having the same meetings today as I am."  Essentially, back in April we could have predicted that Shero didn't exactly view Shattenkirk as being worthy of dumping all of the cash onto. Certainly there was interest, but not enough interest to make a ludicrous deal that we'd all hate halfway through it.

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I wouldn't go that far since I don't know how much he really could have done on the whole due to a variety of factors, but he certainly did a sell job on being in great shape to make moves this offseason with the cap space and double-digit draft picks that wound up (respectively) gathering dust and being used on prospects only and now that's blown up in his face.  For whatever reason they haven't been able to make moves so far and wound up overpromising and underdelivering. I doubt he's ducking the media though, this isn't exactly Toronto.  The so-called media is Gross, the lacrosse writer from NJ.com, angry Larry at the Post and goofball Stan Fischler.   

 

As a fan, if I had a chance to ask Shero a question, I wouldn't mince words: 'You talked a big game about moves in the offseason and have done nothing. Why?' Too bad no one will actually ask that question like they would in a place like Toronto.   

 

 

 

 

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Another question I'd ask: 'Are you planning on just wasting Taylor Hall's prime years here before you either have to flip him for pennies on the dollar, or he leaves to go somewhere where he may actually sniff the playoffs?' Because if the plan is to suck for two more years and accumulate a couple of more high picks, I would've just kept Adam Larsson.

 

 

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I think there's something else in the works to be honest.

I'm as disappointed as anyone about Shattenkirk, but I've gotta respect that Shero stood his ground on the term I guess.

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37 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

As a fan, if I had a chance to ask Shero a question, I wouldn't mince words: 'You talked a big game about moves in the offseason and have done nothing. Why?' Too bad no one will actually ask that question like they would in a place like Toronto.   

C'mon man, you're better than this.  The offseason still has a ways to go.  And if there were multiple big-time "makes sense" UFAs that went off the board that the Devils didn't try to sign, I'd be with you from a frustration standpoint.  But this is a crappy UFA class.  Let's see if Shero can make a deal or two.

I don't think the plan is to suck.  I think it's to not sign meh players for the sake of doing something.  Shero is being patient.  The offseason doesn't start and end on 7/1.

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24 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

Another question I'd ask: 'Are you planning on just wasting Taylor Hall's prime years here before you either have to flip him for pennies on the dollar, or he leaves to go somewhere where he may actually sniff the playoffs?' Because if the plan is to suck for two more years and accumulate a couple of more high picks, I would've just kept Adam Larsson.

 

 

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I think that's a concern, but Larsson is only a year younger than Hall, and becomes a UFA just one summer after with the current deals in place. Maybe there would've been more optimism with Larsson re-signing down the road, but if Hall wants to leave to win, why wouldn't Larsson?

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34 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

If Shattenkirk took less money to play for the rangers, it is fundamentally stupid to blame him for not signing Shattenkirk.

He took less money but not from us.  We were only offering 4-5 years max too.

14 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

C'mon man, you're better than this.  The offseason still has a ways to go.  And if there were multiple big-time "makes sense" UFAs that went off the board that the Devils didn't try to sign, I'd be with you from a frustration standpoint.  But this is a crappy UFA class.  Let's see if Shero can make a deal or two.

I don't think the plan is to suck.  I think it's to not sign meh players for the sake of doing something.  Shero is being patient.  The offseason doesn't start and end on 7/1.

It's not that people wanted to sign ten UFA's yesterday, it's that yesterday was a bit of a straw that broke the camel's back in regards to being promised big changes all offseason and the organization underdelivering.  Yes they can theoretically do a trade later this offseason (there isn't a needle-moving UFA left I'd really care to sign), but after all we've gotten are excuses and rationalizations over why they can't do stuff I don't exactly have a lot of faith that big move is coming.  Especially now that the Russian Hamlet's going to **** us over one last time because he probably wants to go to the Rangers too.

56 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

As a fan, if I had a chance to ask Shero a question, I wouldn't mince words: 'You talked a big game about moves in the offseason and have done nothing. Why?' Too bad no one will actually ask that question like they would in a place like Toronto.  

My question would be how are you ever planning to improve the defense if you're not going to risk paying above market value in trade, in FA or using high draft picks on D?  The Woolworth's signings and seventh round draft picks aren't a model for improving the D long-term, and in fact the D's actually gotten worse under Shero.  If you're going to improve the D from within fine, use picks there...the highest draft pick we've used on a D in three years was the kid from Harvard this year in the late third round, who's likely going to be in college for three more seasons.  

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4 minutes ago, OldThingBack said:

I think that's a concern, but Larsson is only a year younger than Hall, and becomes a UFA just one summer after with the current deals in place. Maybe there would've been more optimism with Larsson re-signing down the road, but if Hall wants to leave to win, why wouldn't Larsson?

That extra year could be huge. That's when they might turn the corner. The minute you make the hall trade you're on the clock to turn this thing around in 3 years otherwise what looked like a good trade could set them back even more.

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No need to cry about FA folks.

For the Devils to be contenders again, McLeod and Hischier have to be the franchise cornerstones. And if they are, all bets are on from there.

Have to remain patience. Hopefully the growing pains of Severson and Santini will pay off as well.

Hockey really is a long, difficult rebuilding process when you are down.

Smart trades are also helpful in speeding up the rebuilding process, not FA signings. 

Let's see what Shero has up his sleeve, trade wise, before we jump off a cliff.

Once again, it's really all about the one-two punch of McLeod and Hischier at C. If they bomb, the Devils will be stuck in the mud.

We shall see.

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I know we were "promised" moves, but you can't make a move if one isn't there. I don't believe the narrative that Shero isn't trying or lied. He tried for Shattenkirk but wanted to be smart. We have no idea what other moves he tried. We also have no idea what picks he tried to unload at the draft. If teams don't want the pick, you can't force them to take it

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I think that's a concern, but Larsson is only a year younger than Hall, and becomes a UFA just one summer after with the current deals in place. Maybe there would've been more optimism with Larsson re-signing down the road, but if Hall wants to leave to win, why wouldn't Larsson?

Larsson was drafted here, developed here, and really liked it here. He also got a taste of playoff hockey here in 2012 (Hall still hasn't had a taste of playoff hockey). Hall was sent here involuntarily (and seemed, quite frankly, put out, that he had to come here) and has absolutely no loyalty or reason to stay with the organization unless and until they give him a reason to. So yeah, I'd have been MUCH more optimistic about resigning Larsson then I am about Hall.


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My question would be how are you ever planning to improve the defense if you're not going to risk paying above market value in trade, in FA or using high draft picks on D?  The Woolworth's signings and seventh round draft picks aren't a model for improving the D long-term, and in fact the D's actually gotten worse under Shero.  If you're going to improve the D from within fine, use picks there...the highest draft pick we've used on a D in three years was the kid from Harvard this year in the late third round, who's likely going to be in college for three more seasons.  

This. Exactly this. I was just about to reply to CR's post when I saw yours, and you beat me to the punch lol. It wasn't us as fans mythically hyping up some big offseason without any basis or knowledge of whether such offseason possibilities existed- Shero himself went on and on about the draft picks, the expansion draft, blah blah blah- what do we have to show for it? Brian Boyle and Mirco Mueller. Sorry- not really gonna cut it when you have the GM himself out there hyping up the offseason. And honestly, between what he's done here and in Pittsburgh, I'm beginning to get the idea Shero ain't great at evaluating defenseman.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, devils744 said:

That extra year could be huge. That's when they might turn the corner. The minute you make the hall trade you're on the clock to turn this thing around in 3 years otherwise what looked like a good trade could set them back even more.

It's way too difficult to say that 2021 is the year the Devils become true cup contenders, but not before or after, and Adam Larsson would put them over the top. There's still plenty of moves to be made in that time. If trading for Hall puts them on the clock at 3 years, than keeping Larsson puts them on the clock at 4 years. Both players could very well leave/have left the Devils, or they could stay. It's not fair to judge that trade based on what a player might do in 3 years.

1 minute ago, MadDog2020 said:


Larsson was drafted here, developed here, and really liked it here. He also got a taste of playoff hockey here in 2012 (Hall still hasn't had a taste of playoff hockey). Hall was sent here involuntarily (and seemed, quite frankly, put out, that he had to come here) and has absolutely no loyalty or reason to stay with the organization unless and until they give him a reason to. So yeah, I'd have been MUCH more optimistic about resigning Larsson then I am about Hall.


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I know, and I don't disagree that we would've probably been more likely to re-sign him down the road. But remember how badly we needed NHL-ready, top-end forwards last season (and still do)? Passing up a Hall for Larsson swap because one might be more likely to re-sign in 5 years can't be justified unless the chances of one re-signing versus the other are wildly different. Larsson may have been more likely to re-sign, but not by that much - money talks in UFA. Bad performances last year from all the D and losing Merrill haven't helped that trade in hindsight, though, I agree.

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This pattern of bringing aboard former Penguins bugs me. I was never keen on the Hynes signing particularly because you had an AHL coach making the jump to coach a rebuilding team. Would have rather seen someone with a few NHL coaching years under their belt.

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This pattern of bringing aboard former Penguins bugs me. I was never keen on the Hynes signing particularly because you had an AHL coach making the jump to coach a rebuilding team. Would have rather seen someone with a few NHL coaching years under their belt.

Not one change to the coaching staff annoys me. I knew Hynes wasn't getting fired, but I was at least hoping for perhaps bringing in a new assistant or two. Nothing. Same AHL crew.


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2 hours ago, mackchi said:

Ok there really wasn't much in this years UFA class. I'll give Shero a pass on that. I am also very glad to see a lot of the dead wood clearing out ( e.g. DSP, Camals, josephson, Bennett ...). 

Its good that more younger guys will have roster spots BUT we will still be mired in hockey hell for a Long time. I just hope the franchise can hang on long enough... Shero is really starting from scratch..

its like the very early days back in the 80's

lets Go Devils. 

Awhile back I did a comparison, for my own edification, and compared the number of players drafted between 2000 and 2008 by LL who had managed to play 200 and 400 NHL games.* I compared this with the eight years of drafting by the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies.  It wasn't even close.  The Scouts and Rockies had a MUCH better draft record than LL did from 2000 on.  Think about that for a minute.  So yes, it is just like we were in the '80s except I would argue that back then this was a franchise that had started to build up some tradeable assets.  We have fewer assets today than LL had when he took over.

*- I think 200 and 400 was the base line I used at the time.  This was three or four years ago.  Long enough that some of the players drafts toward the end of this period might not have cleared this hurdle because of injury or slow development.  I tried to factor that in, but I don't recall how.  It isn't matter--it was still horribly lopsided.  Given that the Scouts and Rockies had a pretty sad drafting record, this really was an indicator of how far LL and staff had fallen.  And I never bother to follow that up with their subsequent drafts....  those were just as bad.

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7 minutes ago, CarpathianForest said:

This pattern of bringing aboard former Penguins bugs me. I was never keen on the Hynes signing particularly because you had an AHL coach making the jump to coach a rebuilding team. Would have rather seen someone with a few NHL coaching years under their belt.

so what's more annoying? lou's retreads or shero's penguin player fetish?

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7 minutes ago, AEWHistory said:

Awhile back I did a comparison, for my own edification, and compared the number of players drafted between 2000 and 2008 by LL who had managed to play 200 and 400 NHL games.* I compared this with the eight years of drafting by the Kansas City Scouts and Colorado Rockies.  It wasn't even close.  The Scouts and Rockies had a MUCH better draft record than LL did from 2000 on.  Think about that for a minute.  So yes, it is just like we were in the '80s except I would argue that back then this was a franchise that had started to build up some tradeable assets.  We have fewer assets today than LL had when he took over.

*- I think 200 and 400 was the base line I used at the time.  This was three or four years ago.  Long enough that some of the players drafts toward the end of this period might not have cleared this hurdle because of injury or slow development.  I tried to factor that in, but I don't recall how.  It isn't matter--it was still horribly lopsided.  Given that the Scouts and Rockies had a pretty sad drafting record, this really was an indicator of how far LL and staff had fallen.  And I never bother to follow that up with their subsequent drafts....  those were just as bad.

That's slightly unfair given both the Scouts/Rockies had much higher picks and a lot more room for guys to play at the NHL level.  

Yes Lou was terrible at drafting forwards toward the end, though even at the end he was fine drafting defensemen.  Shero/Castron have been drafting forwards up the wazoo but haven't allocated any time or energy to the D yet, it's basically the inverse of Lou drafting.

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20 minutes ago, NJDevs4978 said:

That's slightly unfair given both the Scouts/Rockies had higher picks and more room for guys to play at the NHL level.  

Yes Lou was terrible at drafting forwards toward the end, though even at the end he was fine drafting defensemen.  Shero/Castron have been drafting forwards up the wazoo but haven't allocated any time or energy to the D yet.

That's a good point and something I considered as well, although perhaps not enough.  I also wrestled with how to figure the balance of talent.  There were fewer teams back then, but then again the Europeans were just starting to show up and the Russians weren't in the picture. In the end I decided that the overall talent pool in the mid- to late-70s was probably roughly equal on a team to team basis as it is today now that talent scouting is world wide.  Admittedly this is a fudge.

I need to redo this analysis and update it.  Perhaps given a little more time LL's picks will look a bit better, or factoring in pick position more fully will make a difference.  I'm just not so sure.  While you're right that LL's picks weren't as high as the Scouts and Rockies, those earlier teams made horrific moves of their own and traded away some good picks. For his part, LL allowed Neidermeyer to walk for nothing after sending him to arbitration twice.  If there was any chance Neidermeyer was going to resign in NJ over his brother does anyone think dragging him thru arbitration helped that?  And I feel he was going to drag him through arbitration then LL should have used that opportunity to get a return for someone who was sending signals that he was angry and likely not to come back.  The same applies to Parise.

One last point: I looked at these players entire careers, or lack thereof.  So while the Devils may have had fewer NHL slots (at least in the earlier part of this period, later on less so) there are many more total NHL slots in total.  It is telling that no one in the league wanted the talent LL drafted.  In the '90s the talent LL drafted populated the league.  The the '00s these guys played for no one.  Was it because the Devils never gave them a shot?  Perhaps, but I doubt the entire league will have passed on 8 years of draft picks because the Devils didn't give them a shot.  Other teams must have looked at our talent and decided to pass, and pass, and pass.  That's really bad.

If I get a chance I will update this analysis and make a thread about it.  I'd like to see if my analysis holds water, but it is hard to argue without actually posting what I did and I have in idea where I put this info.

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I'm too lazy to find the post, but a couple years ago Triumph did an in depth analysis of like 10 years of Lou/Conte drafts to see what other guys the Devils could've drafted instead of who they did and it actually showed there were very few "should have done that instead" moves. 

One thing also not brought up is player development. Teams can make more or less out of a guy a lot of ways and that's terribly difficult to quantify. Yeah, there's GP but team needs/ quality can dictate a lot of that too. If your team sucks for a long stretch, Steven Gionta can play a lot of games. 

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