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2018 NHL Draft Thread

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14 minutes ago, Daniel said:

I imagine there are teams who are picking ahead of us who passed on Charlie McAvoy because of his size (he's 6' now) who won't make the same mistake again.

I don't think the Devils will trade up in the first round because they would have to part with a roster player or NHL ready prospect to do it (unless it's to move up between two or three spots, in which case you could probably give up someone like Speers or Quenneville to do it).  That's not something that playoff teams tend to do. 

I think Q's value is next to nil right now.  Feels like he's going to be making his way into non-prospect/pretty good AHLer territory very quickly if he doesn't start showing something more soon (it also wouldn't hurt if he showed up in decent shape come preseason). 

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12 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I think Q's value is next to nil right now.  Feels like he's going to be making his way into non-prospect/pretty good AHLer territory very quickly if he doesn't start showing something more soon (it also wouldn't hurt if he showed up in decent shape come preseason). 

He put up good AHL numbers as a 20-21 year old former first round pick who I believe is waiver exempt for another year.  I imagine there are some teams out there who believe he could fill a bottom six role at worst, and might have more upside than that.  If Beau Bennett as an older reclamation project could get a third, Quenneville on his own might get you a second from a team that has a lot of picks, or might help the Devils move up a couple of spots in the first. 

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11 hours ago, Daniel said:

He put up good AHL numbers as a 20-21 year old former first round pick who I believe is waiver exempt for another year.  I imagine there are some teams out there who believe he could fill a bottom six role at worst, and might have more upside than that.  If Beau Bennett as an older reclamation project could get a third, Quenneville on his own might get you a second from a team that has a lot of picks, or might help the Devils move up a couple of spots in the first. 

I really don't think the Bennett trade happens unless it's the guy who drafted him that trades for him. So I guess let's hope Lou gets a new gig soon! Or maybe Conte in Vegas...

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6 hours ago, Marshall said:

I really don't think the Bennett trade happens unless it's the guy who drafted him that trades for him. So I guess let's hope Lou gets a new gig soon! Or maybe Conte in Vegas...

Or Mirco Mueller bringing back a second if that helps.  And apparently there was at least another team trying to trade for him.

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I don't think Quenneville gets a 2nd round pick back, though I would take it for him.  I certainly don't think he helps you move up in the draft - trades like that almost never happen.  A 3rd, maybe, and that I don't think I would take.  He has fine AHL numbers but I don't see what he is at the NHL level, there's just not a lot about his game that stands out.

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1 hour ago, Triumph said:

I don't think Quenneville gets a 2nd round pick back, though I would take it for him.  I certainly don't think he helps you move up in the draft - trades like that almost never happen.  A 3rd, maybe, and that I don't think I would take.  He has fine AHL numbers but I don't see what he is at the NHL level, there's just not a lot about his game that stands out.

By move up in the first, I mean two spots at the most.  The fact that Ryan Reaves helped the Blues move up more spots, means its conceivable that Quenneville can do the same if the right team likes him.

I would take a third for him if there's some player sitting there that's fallen and who the Devils really want.  There's a certain player who has been great for Tampa who was in such a situation, who should be playing for us, but a certain imbecile who worked for us thought that the future of the league was big slow guys that don't score that much.

Edited by Daniel

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22 minutes ago, EdgeControl said:

Does Binghamton record shots as a Stat?   How many shots did quenninville Have? S%?

Quenneville averaged 2.74 Shots per game (118 total over 43 games) and shot 11.9% for 14 goals. For comparison, here's the shot rates of other top prospects in the AHL this season:

Daniel Sprong (PIT): 3.7 Shots per game (214 over 65 games), 14.9%, 32 Goals
Andreas Johnsson (TOR): 2.4 Shots per game (132 over 54 games), 19.6%, 26 Goals
Valentin Zykov (CAR): 1.8 Shots per game (112 over 63), 29.5% (wtf), 33 Goals
Dylan Strome (ARZ): 2.9 Shots per game (144 over 50), 15.3%, 22 Goals

So, Quenneville shot rate was pretty consistent with some of the other top prospects in the A, just cherry picked a few names I recognize with NHL potential but there's likely some career AHLers with better numbers as well. He shoots at a rate consistent with guys like Johnsson and Strome but didn't produce at the elite level like Sprong did. Quenneville was the unluckiest with his shooting percentage in this group. Zykov is an extreme outlier with those goal totals with a very low shot rate and an unbelievably unsustainable scoring rate.

EDIT: Just want to point out as well that Q is a year younger than Zykov and Johnsson, and a year older than both Sprong and Strome.

Edited by CommonDreads

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On 5/2/2018 at 1:48 PM, Triumph said:

I don't think Quenneville gets a 2nd round pick back, though I would take it for him.  I certainly don't think he helps you move up in the draft - trades like that almost never happen.  A 3rd, maybe, and that I don't think I would take.  He has fine AHL numbers but I don't see what he is at the NHL level, there's just not a lot about his game that stands out.

Wonder how much what round/position a player is drafted counts towards his trade value? probably nada. Q was a 1st rounder.  I just wish he'd come to camp fit and ready to earn a job. Even Blandisi nearly made the team out of camp. 

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If you have an Athletic sub, Corey Pronman put out a great article today on how Draft Boards work for NHL teams and scouts:

https://theathletic.com/367378/2018/05/29/pronman-how-nhl-draft-boards-work/

Using the simulation he did to determine how his drafts could have gone (give yourself the 16th pick in every round, pick your best available off your list), I went back and looked over how the 2014 Draft would have gone using my rankings. Fvck off Lou and Conte.

Round - Player - My Rank:
1st Round: Kasperi Kapanen, RW (8)
2nd Round: Roland McKeown, D (27)
3rd Round: Brayden Point, C (29)
4th Round: Spencer Watson, RW (40)
5th Round: Ondrej Kase, LW (54)
6th Round: Adam Ollas Mattsson, D (56)
7th Round: Vladimir Tkachev, LW (57)

The only player there that I would consider a complete miss would be Ollas Mattsson, just goes to show how tone deaf Lou and Conte were going into that draft, always infuriates me. I'll never forget how angry I was after the 2nd day of the draft that year.

Edited by CommonDreads
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1 hour ago, CommonDreads said:

If you have an Athletic sub, Corey Pronman put out a great article today on how Draft Boards work for NHL teams and scouts:

https://theathletic.com/367378/2018/05/29/pronman-how-nhl-draft-boards-work/

Using the simulation he did to determine how his drafts could have gone (give yourself the 16th pick in every round, pick your best available off your list), I went back and looked over how the 2014 Draft would have gone using my rankings. Fvck off Lou and Conte.

Round - Player - My Rank:
1st Round: Kasperi Kapanen, RW (8)
2nd Round: Roland McKeown, D (27)
3rd Round: Brayden Point, C (29)
4th Round: Spencer Watson (40)
5th Round: Ondrej Kase, LW (54)
6th Round: Adam Ollas Mattsson (56)
7th Round: Vladimir Tkachev (57)

The only player there that I would consider a complete miss would be Ollas Mattsson, just goes to show how tone deaf Lou and Conte were going into that draft, always infuriates me. I'll never forget how angry I was after the 2nd day of the draft that year.

"New Jersey needed skill, yet Conte and his staff didn't exactly get that with their first two picks and went more for grit beyond the the first two rounds."

 

This was the epitome of Lou's drafting for the Devils.  Size and grit over talent and ability to score. 

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23 hours ago, vadvlfan said:

Wonder how much what round/position a player is drafted counts towards his trade value? probably nada. Q was a 1st rounder.  I just wish he'd come to camp fit and ready to earn a job. Even Blandisi nearly made the team out of camp. 

I'm sure it means nothing to GMs of other teams, and everything to the GM who drafted him.  GMs are like anyone else, they have egos, and they hate to give up on a guy they drafted and give him away for peanuts.  It takes a level-headed GM to swallow his pride, accept the player for who/what he is, and deal him for actual fair market value, rather than some inner perceived potential that may never be realized.  Easier said than done though of course, which is why I believe there's lots of guys on lots of teams that are considered 'favorites' by management and have some sentimental value behind them which keeps them employed.

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15 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

If you have an Athletic sub, Corey Pronman put out a great article today on how Draft Boards work for NHL teams and scouts:

https://theathletic.com/367378/2018/05/29/pronman-how-nhl-draft-boards-work/

Using the simulation he did to determine how his drafts could have gone (give yourself the 16th pick in every round, pick your best available off your list), I went back and looked over how the 2014 Draft would have gone using my rankings. Fvck off Lou and Conte.

Round - Player - My Rank:
1st Round: Kasperi Kapanen, RW (8)
2nd Round: Roland McKeown, D (27)
3rd Round: Brayden Point, C (29)
4th Round: Spencer Watson, RW (40)
5th Round: Ondrej Kase, LW (54)
6th Round: Adam Ollas Mattsson, D (56)
7th Round: Vladimir Tkachev, LW (57)

The only player there that I would consider a complete miss would be Ollas Mattsson, just goes to show how tone deaf Lou and Conte were going into that draft, always infuriates me. I'll never forget how angry I was after the 2nd day of the draft that year.

We could've easily had 2 NHLers from that draft. We also had a horrible coach named Pete Deboer. I know a lot of people like him and will point out his successes, but after he leaves, teams have to rebuild as he develops no new players.

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15 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

If you have an Athletic sub, Corey Pronman put out a great article today on how Draft Boards work for NHL teams and scouts:

https://theathletic.com/367378/2018/05/29/pronman-how-nhl-draft-boards-work/

Using the simulation he did to determine how his drafts could have gone (give yourself the 16th pick in every round, pick your best available off your list), I went back and looked over how the 2014 Draft would have gone using my rankings. Fvck off Lou and Conte.

Round - Player - My Rank:
1st Round: Kasperi Kapanen, RW (8)
2nd Round: Roland McKeown, D (27)
3rd Round: Brayden Point, C (29)
4th Round: Spencer Watson, RW (40)
5th Round: Ondrej Kase, LW (54)
6th Round: Adam Ollas Mattsson, D (56)
7th Round: Vladimir Tkachev, LW (57)

The only player there that I would consider a complete miss would be Ollas Mattsson, just goes to show how tone deaf Lou and Conte were going into that draft, always infuriates me. I'll never forget how angry I was after the 2nd day of the draft that year.

Lou and Conte passed on Point three times. Just total incompetence. I can't wait to see what Lou does to the Islanders now that he has full control of their draft. 

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35 minutes ago, slasher72 said:

Lou and Conte passed on Point three times. Just total incompetence. I can't wait to see what Lou does to the Islanders now that he has full control of their draft. 

It also looks like the Leafs better draft picks in recent years were because of Mark Hunter and Kyle Dubas rather than because of Lou, in fact their drafting got significantly worse under Lou by the way I'd project their 2016 and 2017 drafts compared to the 2015 draft. Throw out the 1st round picks, and the 2015 draft run by Dubas and Hunter was a draft so by my heart I thought the Leafs stole my draft guide: Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, Andrew Nielsen, Jesper Lindgren, Dima Timashov – all players with speed and skill that have likely NHL careers (maybe Lindgren the least so of that group, but I liked him a lot). Compare that to the drafting from 2016 and 2017 and it's all size over skill: Yegor Korshkov over Alex DeBrincat, the drafting of immobile 6'4"+ defenders in Rasanen, Gordeev, Middleton, and Mattinen, and just complete swings and misses on two-way CHL players. Lou is a trash new-age NHL talent evaluator at the draft, love the fact he'll be in charge for the Islanders this summer at the draft.

Edited by CommonDreads

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1 hour ago, CommonDreads said:

It also looks like the Leafs better draft picks in recent years were because of Mark Hunter and Kyle Dubas rather than because of Lou, in fact their drafting got significantly worse under Lou by the way I'd project their 2016 and 2017 drafts compared to the 2015 draft. Throw out the 1st round picks, and the 2015 draft run by Dubas and Hunter was a draft so by my heart I thought the Leafs stole my draft guide: Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, Andrew Nielsen, Jesper Lindgren, Dima Timashov – all players with speed and skill that have likely NHL careers (maybe Lindgren the least so of that group, but I liked him a lot). Compare that to the drafting from 2016 and 2017 and it's all size over skill: Yegor Korshkov over Alex DeBrincat, the drafting of immobile 6'4"+ defenders in Rasanen, Gordeev, Middleton, and Mattinen, and just complete swings and misses on two-way CHL players. Lou is a trash new-age NHL talent evaluator at the draft, love the fact he'll be in charge for the Islanders this summer at the draft.

Is it possible that's just a coincidence in that the GM, and especially someone like Lou under the circumstances he went to Toronto, usually doesn't have that much say at the draft?  It's usually your head of scouting, although the GM might veto a certain pick like Shero is reported to have done with Brandon Saad?  Or, this year I can imagine a GM overriding his scouts when it comes to drafting or not drafting Ryan Merkely.

Also, here's a link to a Talking Red podcast where they interview Steve Kournianos about possibilities for the Devils at #17.  He's very high on Bode Wilde. 

http://talkingred.com/2018/05/266-offseason-talk/

 

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1 hour ago, CommonDreads said:

It also looks like the Leafs better draft picks in recent years were because of Mark Hunter and Kyle Dubas rather than because of Lou, in fact their drafting got significantly worse under Lou by the way I'd project their 2016 and 2017 drafts compared to the 2015 draft. Throw out the 1st round picks, and the 2015 draft run by Dubas and Hunter was a draft so by my heart I thought the Leafs stole my draft guide: Travis Dermott, Jeremy Bracco, Andrew Nielsen, Jesper Lindgren, Dima Timashov – all players with speed and skill that have likely NHL careers (maybe Lindgren the least so of that group, but I liked him a lot). Compare that to the drafting from 2016 and 2017 and it's all size over skill: Yegor Korshkov over Alex DeBrincat, the drafting of immobile 6'4"+ defenders in Rasanen, Gordeev, Middleton, and Mattinen, and just complete swings and misses on two-way CHL players. Lou is a trash new-age NHL talent evaluator at the draft, love the fact he'll be in charge for the Islanders this summer at the draft.

Agreed. His job is revamping a team that has talent but lacks "culture". Let him trade away Ho-Sang and pursue low-skill, high-character players in the draft. 

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3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Is it possible that's just a coincidence in that the GM, and especially someone like Lou under the circumstances he went to Toronto, usually doesn't have that much say at the draft?  It's usually your head of scouting, although the GM might veto a certain pick like Shero is reported to have done with Brandon Saad?  Or, this year I can imagine a GM overriding his scouts when it comes to drafting or not drafting Ryan Merkely.

Also, here's a link to a Talking Red podcast where they interview Steve Kournianos about possibilities for the Devils at #17.  He's very high on Bode Wilde. 

http://talkingred.com/2018/05/266-offseason-talk/

 

Normally I would say yes, but there was a very clear shift in drafting philosophy between 2015 and 2016 in Toronto even though the scouting staff went largely unchanged, the only real change in management came in the form of Lou being named the GM in July of 2015. The drafting philosophy under Dubas and Hunter was skating ability and skill, and then in 2016 and 2017 under Lou the philosophy seemed to shift to size, which leads me to believe it was largely a Lou M.O.

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6 minutes ago, Derlique said:

Agreed. His job is revamping a team that has talent but lacks "culture". Let him trade away Ho-Sang and pursue low-skill, high-character players in the draft. 

Above all, the Isles brought Lou in to restore credibility and as an attempt to get Tavares to re-sign.  Things had gotten so bad under Snow that it must have been clear to ownership that Tavares didn't believe in him. I think the idea was just to bring in someone with a good reputation without that much thought on what exactly he plans on doing except that he planned on making a real pitch to Tavares to stay.

And assuming you get something useful for him, trading Ho Sang would not be a terrible idea.  He actually has not been anything special at the pro level -- AHL or NHL.  And his reputation for poor character is not just a "bad interview" at the combine.  Apparently he was involved in a hazing incident aimed at McDavid among other things.  I wouldn't want him on the Devils if Lou were going to give him to us for free, and I'm usually not the type of guy who cares that much about that stuff.

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Boqvist has fallen all the way down to 12 in Button's latest rankings,  if he's there after 10 you'd have to assume Shero would do what it took to move up. Would you offer next years' 2nd round pick in addition to #17 to jump up to the Islanders pick at #11 or #12 to grab Jesper's brother? Seems like he was a consensus top-5 pick not too long ago, wonder why he's fallen? 

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3 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Boqvist has fallen all the way down to 12 in Button's latest rankings,  if he's there after 10 you'd have to assume Shero would do what it took to move up. Would you offer next years' 2nd round pick in addition to #17 to jump up to the Islanders pick at #11 or #12 to grab Jesper's brother? Seems like he was a consensus top-5 pick not too long ago, wonder why he's fallen? 

He's had a bad season. Also not a lock to play top-6 mins on D next season in the SHL (his club is pretty deep), which is very rare for a guy ranked at that spot.

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As long as we don't take Serron Noel or some low-upside D, I'm cool. I hope one of Smith, Kupari, Bokk, Denisenko, Merkley, Kravstov or Farabee are ours. I'd be ok with Miller or Thomas, too, but prefer a trade down in those cases.

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3 hours ago, Marshall said:

He's had a bad season. Also not a lock to play top-6 mins on D next season in the SHL (his club is pretty deep), which is very rare for a guy ranked at that spot.

My usual disclaimer is that I know nothing about evaluating prospects, but there strikes me as something of a cargo cult behind Boqvist.  He’s a fast Swedish defenseman who hasn’t really produced in his draft year, just like Erik Karlsson!

It seems like that archetype is the new elusive “next Milan Lucic” that everyone was looking for about five years ago.

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