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This Team Might Legitimately be Good


Derlique

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I am in no means saying this team is a cup contender, but there are some metrics that suggest the Devils are an above average team. 

We already know that NJ has banked a lot of points and have set themselves up nicely to make the playoffs. As long as there is no prolonged tailspin, we should be in. Over the first 20-25 games, we won a lot of games through hot shooting, timely goaltending and some nice bounces. However, over the last 15 or so games, NJ has really improved. Over the last week, NJ's expected goals for % climbed over 50%. That means that based on our play, the Devils should be expected to outscore their opponents. I can't help but to mention, how good the Henrique for Vatanen swap was for us. Our shots against totals have declined and Vatanen has helped with transitions. I think Hynes/Nasreddine can help the team out even more by giving Severson more minutes. He is 5th in toi for dmen and he's likely our best. 

Just look at last night's loss in St. Louis. We got absolutely throttled in the first period. Any version of the 2013-2017 did not have the skill or confidence to pull themselves back in the game. I'm not saying this team is perfect, but it certainly ain't bad, either- and that's saying something.

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21 minutes ago, Derlique said:

I can't help but to mention, how good the Henrique for Vatanen swap was for us. Our shots against totals have declined and Vatanen has helped with transitions.

It was good but somewhat diminished by demoting (within the team, not to the minors) Severson. I suspect acquiring Zajac from IR was even bigger - he's the best or one of the best shot suppression players on the team so far.

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6 minutes ago, Marshall said:

It was good but somewhat diminished by demoting (within the team, not to the minors) Severson. I suspect acquiring Zajac from IR was even bigger - he's the best or one of the best shot suppression players on the team so far.

The minutes he lost was basically 2 minutes of PP time per game. They need to ride him more at ES to make up the difference

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10 minutes ago, Marshall said:

It was good but somewhat diminished by demoting (within the team, not to the minors) Severson. I suspect acquiring Zajac from IR was even bigger - he's the best or one of the best shot suppression players on the team so far.

double post

Edited by Derlique
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Devils need 49 points in their last 43 games to finish the season with 100.  Seems pretty doable as long as they don't get slammed with injuries...and as long as they can keep consistently scoring 2+ goals per game (details below). 

One HUUUUUUGE difference from last season is that this team has been held to one goal or less just five times this season (they're 0-3-2).  Last year that happened to the Devils 26 times.  TWENTY SIX!  Their record in those games?  1-22-3 

Obviously circumstances were different..the 2016-17 Devils had nine one goal/no goal games at this point last season, with a number of them coming much later in the season, when everything went to sh!t.  And 2017-18 Cory has been much better than 2016-17 Cory...when the Devils scored exactly 2 goals last year, they went 8-14-2 (.360 point%). 

When you can avoid those one-goal/no-goal games, you can have some nice success.  Even just scoring two goals gives you a decent shot at banking some points, provided you're getting above-average goaltending often enough:  Devils have been held to two goals 11 times this season and have gone 3-5-3 in those games (.409 point%...better than last season).   

Of course, when the Devils score 3+ they're pretty beastly:  19-2-2. 

I think this team should remain productive through the rest of the season...though I guess it's fair to worry about not getting 12 more goals from Gibby in the second half of season (or 10 more from Boyle)...you hope the kids don't all hit a wall, and that Palms and MoJo have both healthy AND productive second halves.  Would be nice to see Travis somehow become more of a contributor offensively, but I just don't see it happening.

 

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1 hour ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

One HUUUUUUGE difference from last season is that this team has been held to one goal or less just five times this season (they're 0-3-2).  Last year that happened to the Devils 26 times.  TWENTY SIX!  Their record in those games?  1-22-3 

That is a sobering statistic and clarifies the kind of crap season we sat through last year. I don't remember it being as bad as it was, I clearly have blocked it out. 

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15 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

That is a sobering statistic and clarifies the kind of crap season we sat through last year. I don't remember it being as bad as it was, I clearly have blocked it out. 

Makes you realize just how awful last year's team really was...in 50 out of 82 games, they were held to two goals or less.  They went 9-36-5 in those.  That's about as unwatchable as it gets. 

As far as one-goal/no-goal games go, I'm guessing the Devils finish this season with 13, to throw a number out there.  That's mostly due to more "gassed" games coming in the second half...after the bye week, the schedule really gets compressed, especially once February rolls around.   

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It's quite encouraging. Plus our late 20's guys should keep a similar production to what they have but Nico and Bratt.... dear lord. How good will they be if they are already this good at 19 years old? Bratt may turn into some kind of Tarasenko for all we know. Plus the other kids pushing might make an impact too. My god it's a good time to be a fan at the moment, so exciting compared to a few years ago

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

When I saw you had the last post in this thread, I was 99.999% expecting FIRE HYNES. 

haha.  I said that one time, everyone got so angry, it was entertaining, so I kept saying it...this is the internet.  It exists SOLELY for my entertainment and as a mental vacation away from corporate america/the real world/reality.

 

Hence: FIRE HYNES!

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On 1/3/2018 at 10:59 AM, Jerzey said:

What is the deal with Severson? I thought he had been playing pretty good lately. Is he being shopped or are they just resting him? Or has he been bad and I just haven’t noticed? 

Not a popular opinion, but I think Sevs has been pretty bad lately. He earned a seat for a few games.

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The Devils are playing much better since Zajac came back into the lineup, since Zajac is super under-rated and just a complete beast in all situations. It is really a shame that he has such terrible puck luck, or else were talking about a player who resembles Kyle Turris. Also Severson took a huge step forward in his play this year, love what we're getting out of him

Edited by Mu6atu
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14 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Ok whoa. I have a Zajac Jersey, I absolutely love the guy and I defend him to the end but there comes a point in time where this production isn’t just “luck”, it’s  a complete lack of finish. 

Yeah, 4 points in 22 games is........not good. 

Only Mueller has less. 

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21 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Ok whoa. I have a Zajac Jersey, I absolutely love the guy and I defend him to the end but there comes a point in time where this production isn’t just “luck”, it’s  a complete lack of finish. 

Posts in another thread show he has a huge boner for Zajac. He can’t hang with the new, faster lineup. 

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