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Daniel

All purpose general trade speculation thread

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Posted (edited)

I don’t consider myself all that super organized, but the way we kind of squish our own trade ideas into various threads kind of bothers me for whatever reason.  For example, talking about what it would take to land Karlsson in a thread about Max Pacioretty rumors, and so on.  So I propose putting all trade ideas, speculation or rumors into one thread so all the discussion is one place.  Maybe if there are reports of the Devils being in talks for a specific player those can get their own thread.

Mods can delete this thread if no one seems to be into the idea.

Otherwise, I’ll start by saying I think the Devils are a very plausible candidate for a Karlsson trade that won’t completely gut the organization’s prospect depth.

Edited by Daniel
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Said in another thread, I don’t want the Devils trading 4/5 prospects and picks to get Karlsson. 

That being said, I also don’t think the Devils are prime candidates to make any deadline acquisitions UNLESS it’s a top-flight defenseman. Acquiring a 2nd pairing defenseman does very little for this team; it’s worth remembering that Lovejoy is a serviceable #7 and we’ll soon get Mueller back — someone who I was quite impressed with during his short healthy stint at the beginning of the year. 

Our top-6 is also set, for my liking. 

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45 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Said in another thread, I don’t want the Devils trading 4/5 prospects and picks to get Karlsson. 

That being said, I also don’t think the Devils are prime candidates to make any deadline acquisitions UNLESS it’s a top-flight defenseman. Acquiring a 2nd pairing defenseman does very little for this team; it’s worth remembering that Lovejoy is a serviceable #7 and we’ll soon get Mueller back — someone who I was quite impressed with during his short healthy stint at the beginning of the year. 

Our top-6 is also set, for my liking. 

I see your point, but I think we would still be better off acquiring another D especially as the season wears on. We have a pretty inexperienced d corps that will struggle as we continue and if we make the playoffs.

 

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Mike Hoffman is being shopped out of Ottawa, too. He's on the books for over $5m/year but when he tries, he's got speed and scoring ability. The cap hit is the only real drawback in my opinion

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2 hours ago, Daniel said:

 

Otherwise, I’ll start by saying I think the Devils are a very plausible candidate for a Karlsson trade that won’t completely gut the organization’s prospect depth.

Thoughts on who  we give up to make this happen?

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I’ll restate my position on Karlsson.  Assuming we’re not trading Hall, Nico and/or Corey to get him, he makes the Devils a legit Cup contender for the next two years.  I believe the success thus far is not a mirage, and you would have to give me nice odds to bet against not making the playoffs and comfortably so.  You add arguably the best defenseman in the league, it’s a team that can win the Cup.  If Corey performs to his career average in the playoffs, i.e. doesn’t sh!t the bed, the Devils are almost guaranteed to get to the Conference finals against Tampa if Karlsson is on the team.

As to the cost, I would assume that Severson would be going the other way, which is not really a loss at all considering the upgrade you’re getting.  Losing McLeod, who I assume would be in the deal, would not be an enormous loss.  Then it comes down to whether you’d be willing to part with Zacha, or Bratt if Ottawa insists on him (Bratt might be the deal breaker).  A low first round pick added on top is also not the end of the world.  

So if the package resembles something like this, you haven’t completely decimated your prospect pool, which will still consist of Zetterlund, Anderson, Walsh, Studenic, Davies, Rykov and Zaitsev.  It’s also possible that Bastian and Quenneville become useful NHLers, or might exceed expectations, although you obviously count that as being found money if it ever happens.  

Otherwise, the team as is is young and good.  Yeah, you might have difficulty replacing Zajac when he really can’t hack it anymore, but it’s a chance you take if you think you can legitimately win a Cup in the near future.

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Posted (edited)

I think replacing Zajac is a very minimal problem at this point. 

If Severson, McLeod and Zacha brought back Karlsson, I’d say go for it. But I don’t think they’d do it. 

Edited by mfitz804

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7 minutes ago, Daniel said:

I’ll restate my position on Karlsson.  Assuming we’re not trading Hall, Nico and/or Corey to get him, he makes the Devils a legit Cup contender for the next two years.  I believe the success thus far is not a mirage, and you would have to give me nice odds to bet against not making the playoffs and comfortably so.  You add arguably the best defenseman in the league, it’s a team that can win the Cup.  If Corey performs to his career average in the playoffs, i.e. doesn’t sh!t the bed, the Devils are almost guaranteed to get to the Conference finals against Tampa if Karlsson is on the team.

As to the cost, I would assume that Severson would be going the other way, which is not really a loss at all considering the upgrade you’re getting.  Losing McLeod, who I assume would be in the deal, would not be an enormous loss.  Then it comes down to whether you’d be willing to part with Zacha, or Bratt if Ottawa insists on him (Bratt might be the deal breaker).  A low first round pick added on top is also not the end of the world.  

So if the package resembles something like this, you haven’t completely decimated your prospect pool, which will still consist of Zetterlund, Anderson, Walsh, Studenic, Davies, Rykov and Zaitsev.  It’s also possible that Bastian and Quenneville become useful NHLers, or might exceed expectations, although you obviously count that as being found money if it ever happens.  

Otherwise, the team as is is young and good.  Yeah, you might have difficulty replacing Zajac when he really can’t hack it anymore, but it’s a chance you take if you think you can legitimately win a Cup in the near future.

Thanks.  I just don't see them being one dman away from being a cup contender for the next two years before you even remove anyone of value.   I don't know if he magically becomes  a stud by switching sweaters ( he certainly might) nor if he would even want to come here.  Ultimately he'll make the final call where he gets moved to with his NTC if he gets moved at all.

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3 minutes ago, titans04 said:

Thanks.  I just don't see them being one dman away from being a cup contender for the next two years before you even remove anyone of value.   I don't know if he magically becomes  a stud by switching sweaters ( he certainly might) nor if he would even want to come here.  Ultimately he'll make the final call where he gets moved to with his NTC if he gets moved at all.

Karlsson is at worst, the third best defenseman in the league and probably one of the top ten players in the league.  So it’s not like we’re talking about adding Martin Skoula.  He almost single handedly brought Ottawa to the conference finals last year, and our team already is much much better than Ottawa last year, 

He has a 10 team no trade list that he has submitted (supposedly because the bankers wanted to know it, haha).  It’s possible the Devils are on it, but he can always waive it if asked.  If the Devils are in the standings where they are now, it’s very likely he will. That’s especially the case since the Devils will almost certainly have the most cap space of all the places he might get dealt to.

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16 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Karlsson is at worst, the third best defenseman in the league and probably one of the top ten players in the league.  So it’s not like we’re talking about adding Martin Skoula.  He almost single handedly brought Ottawa to the conference finals last year, and our team already is much much better than Ottawa last year, 

He has a 10 team no trade list that he has submitted (supposedly because the bankers wanted to know it, haha).  It’s possible the Devils are on it, but he can always waive it if asked.  If the Devils are in the standings where they are now, it’s very likely he will. That’s especially the case since the Devils will almost certainly have the most cap space of all the places he might get dealt to.

all good, I'll take the under.  I think you're drastically underestimating the cost for a true top ten player especially if Bratt is off the table, which he should be.  

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17 minutes ago, titans04 said:

all good, I'll take the under.  I think you're drastically underestimating the cost for a true top ten player especially if Bratt is off the table, which he should be.  

If I’m Shero, I’m not necessarily saying Bratt is off the table.  I would try really hard to not include him, but if Ottawa insisted on having him, I’d demand that something else be taken off the table.  For example, Bratt, Severson and a first, and no Zacha or McLeod.  

I really like Bratt though, so it might be a deal breaker.  

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Posted (edited)

Bratt has looked like a 2nd or 3rd year player from day one of his rookie year. I’d really like him to stick around so I can watch that develop. 

Edited by mfitz804
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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Bratt has looked like a 2nd or 3rd year player from day one of his rookie year. I’d really like him to stick around so I can watch that develop. 

Same here.

 

I don't think the other possible pieces outside of Bratt especially Severson and Zacha add up to all that much.  I would do that and a pick in a heartbeat looking through my Devils glasses. Are the Devils really a team that's gonna extend the guy for what would probably be the biggest dman contract to date?  Basing that on his comments earlier about it's all about getting paid when he gets to the table.

Edited by titans04

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1 hour ago, Daniel said:

Karlsson is at worst, the third best defenseman in the league and probably one of the top ten players in the league.  So it’s not like we’re talking about adding Martin Skoula.  He almost single handedly brought Ottawa to the conference finals last year, and our team already is much much better than Ottawa last year, 

He has a 10 team no trade list that he has submitted (supposedly because the bankers wanted to know it, haha).  It’s possible the Devils are on it, but he can always waive it if asked.  If the Devils are in the standings where they are now, it’s very likely he will. That’s especially the case since the Devils will almost certainly have the most cap space of all the places he might get dealt to.

So he's more of a Niclas Havelid or Kurtis Foster?

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Okay, so let’s say I’m allowed to make decisions and I entertain the prospect of trading for Karlsson.

immediately, 3 players come off the table: Nico, Bratt and Hall. 

It’s my honest opinion that Ottawa hangs the phone up. 

So yes, I’ll  agree that adding 1.5 years of Karlsson would be spectacular, I will say that I would be shocked (more shocked than I was at Kovalchuk’s acquisition) if it happens.

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I don't think Karlsson makes a ton of sense for NJ right now, but I don't think Ottawa is going to get a huge haul for him.  He's UFA in 2019 so that reduces the price.  Ottawa wants to cut salary so they won't be able to take back much salary in order to increase the payment.  And he's going to get a huge contract so certain teams will have trouble adding him.

When star players get traded it tends to be for not all that much relatively, and I won't even include Taylor Hall in this - look at what Boston dealt Tyler Seguin for, Eriksson was a 1st line forward who was UFA soon-ish and Smith was a 2nd line forward and the rest were throw-ins.  So I think Severson Zacha Clowe 2018 1st Boqvist conditional 1st for Karlsson + bad Ottawa salary (Smith?)  would be close to the right value.  But I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense for NJ.

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1 minute ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Okay, so let’s say I’m allowed to make decisions and I entertain the prospect of trading for Karlsson.

immediately, 3 players come off the table: Nico, Bratt and Hall. 

It’s my honest opinion that Ottawa hangs the phone up. 

So yes, I’ll  agree that adding 1.5 years of Karlsson would be spectacular, I will say that I would be shocked (more shocked than I was at Kovalchuk’s acquisition) if it happens.

The thing is, is Ottawa’s hands are kind of tied.  Karlsson’s an amazing player, but Ottawa is a really crappy team with severe money problems.  Karlsson is a wasting asset to Ottawa in that  he’s almost certainly gone in a year and half.  So he has a something more in trade value than Kovalchuk had, but not a huge amount more.  Add to the fact that the Devils are one of the few good teams that could give Karlsson the extension he’ll demand.  

I mean, if the Rangers offered Andersson, Sjkei and Chytll that would be better than anything we would want to offer, but I doubt the Rangers do something like that.

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3 minutes ago, Triumph said:

I don't think Karlsson makes a ton of sense for NJ right now, but I don't think Ottawa is going to get a huge haul for him.  He's UFA in 2019 so that reduces the price.  Ottawa wants to cut salary so they won't be able to take back much salary in order to increase the payment.  And he's going to get a huge contract so certain teams will have trouble adding him.

When star players get traded it tends to be for not all that much relatively, and I won't even include Taylor Hall in this - look at what Boston dealt Tyler Seguin for, Eriksson was a 1st line forward who was UFA soon-ish and Smith was a 2nd line forward and the rest were throw-ins.  So I think Severson Zacha Clowe 2018 1st Boqvist conditional 1st for Karlsson + bad Ottawa salary (Smith?)  would be close to the right value.  But I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense for NJ.

The thing that I’ve wondered is if you could get the price for Karlsson reduced significantly if you agreed to take Bobby Ryan’s contract, which is absolutely brutal. I haven’t run the numbers (I went to law school because I was told there would be no math) but maybe you could take that on and not be too worse for wear.

The Bobby Ryan quagmire aside, Karlsson makes a ton of sense.  This is a good team right now, that’s only getting better.  You put Karlsson on this team for two Cup runs, there is a plausible chance you’re coming away with at least one Cup before the end of Karlsson’s current deal.  

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The thing about Kovalchuk is that a lot of the league was capped out that year because of how the salary cap shook out.  That won't be the case at the end of this season or this off-season.  I'm still having trouble coming up with teams that have comparable asset packages that aren't in the Atlantic Division - and I doubt Melnyk would even entertain trading Karlsson to Toronto.

The Flyers would be one.  Patrick's gotten out to a rough start, I wonder if something like Patrick Morin Lehtera MacDonald for Karlsson Ryan Burrows wouldn't intrigue both sides.  Would be crazy but so will a lot of Karlsson deals.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

The thing that I’ve wondered is if you could get the price for Karlsson reduced significantly if you agreed to take Bobby Ryan’s contract, which is absolutely brutal. I haven’t run the numbers (I went to law school because I was told there would be no math) but maybe you could take that on and not be too worse for wear.

The Bobby Ryan quagmire aside, Karlsson makes a ton of sense.  This is a good team right now, that’s only getting better.  You put Karlsson on this team for two Cup runs, there is a plausible chance you’re coming away with at least one Cup before the end of Karlsson’s current deal.  

Ryan's contract is brutal but according to capfriendly his no-trade clause is just a 10 team no-trade list.  So NJ might be on there, they might not.  I don't think Karlsson puts this team into Cup contention this season or probably even next season, though.  

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Severson, Zacha, Boqvist+ is a lot easier for me to swallow than Severson, Zacha, McLeod+. 

But I’m with Triumph, I don’t necessarily think it’s in NJ’s best interest and I’m not ready to sell on Zacha yet. 

Intrigued by the idea of Karlsson+Ryan to drive down the price. It certainly wouldn’t be a cap concern, even with a (hopeful) Karlsson extension. Zajac is off the books soon, as is Greene and Lovejoy (and Clowe). Nico/Butcher/Bratt will likely be bridge deals, the cap will hopefully increase pretty significantly between now and then and I’d assume there will be yet another pot-lockout get-outta-jail-free card if any non expiring contract doesn’t look all that pretty.

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5 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The thing about Kovalchuk is that a lot of the league was capped out that year because of how the salary cap shook out.  That won't be the case at the end of this season or this off-season.  I'm still having trouble coming up with teams that have comparable asset packages that aren't in the Atlantic Division - and I doubt Melnyk would even entertain trading Karlsson to Toronto.

The Flyers would be one.  Patrick's gotten out to a rough start, I wonder if something like Patrick Morin Lehtera MacDonald for Karlsson Ryan Burrows wouldn't intrigue both sides.  Would be crazy but so will a lot of Karlsson deals.

Patrick+Morin is so much significantly and ridiculously higher than the expected package you just suggested for us. Patrick is a 2nd overall pick who’s played most of his injury-plagued season on the third and fourth line. There is absolutely zero chance the Flyers are ready to trade him. 

A deal like you proposed implies Philly is in a win-now or at least win-soon mode; something they obviously aren’t in. 

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8 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Patrick+Morin is so much significantly and ridiculously higher than the expected package you just suggested for us. Patrick is a 2nd overall pick who’s played most of his injury-plagued season on the third and fourth line. There is absolutely zero chance the Flyers are ready to trade him. 

A deal like you proposed implies Philly is in a win-now or at least win-soon mode; something they obviously aren’t in. 

In this version of the deal, Ottawa gets rid of Bobby Ryan, which would be huge for them.  They do take back 2 salaries in Lehtera and MacDonald but they can easily buy both guys out.

Morin has very little value.  He's in his 3rd pro season and has played 3 NHL games, there aren't a whole lot of high draft picks with that sort of resume who turn out well.

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33 minutes ago, Triumph said:

 I don't think Karlsson puts this team into Cup contention this season or probably even next season, though.  

So are you saying that you don’t think the team as currently situated is for real?  Like they could easily miss the playoffs by a healthy margin this year and/or that they could just as easily regress to being a crappy team next year?  If that’s not the case, I don’t see how adding someone as good as Karlsson does not make the Devils a plausible Cup contender.  

Regarding the Flyers, Hextall does not seem like the type who will sacrifice young players or draft picks unless he’s certain there will be a strong playoff run in the immediate future. That’s fortunate for us if Karlsson is really in the cards, since Nolan Patrick and not a ton more would be better than anything the Devils could offer.  

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Posted (edited)

I guess if we look at the group we could have in the next 2 years (when Karlsson could potentially hit the market)

Hall Nico Bratt
Mojo* Zacha Palmieri
Wood McLeod Noesen*
Coleman* Queneville Gibbons*

Moore* Vatanen
Greene Santini
Butcher Severson

* players we need to re-sign by then

Players that i'd consider a lock

It's a pretty damn solid core so i doubt Shero will try to improve our forward group through free agency unless he can somehow get a Tavares or something. Carlson would be an obvious one to go after if he's available. So it could make guys like Boqvist, Lappin or the other kids expandable and even our 1st round pick expandable if we'd really want to make a move. I don't really see them beating many guys for a job and we'd have a pretty solid and young forward core.

Plus we might have a surprise with a guy like Jacob Macdonald who's tearing it up in the AHL at the moment and "could" maybe become an asset or make one of our dman expendable.

 

Edited by SterioDesign

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