Why Travis Zajac is so important to this team, and why goaltending has been the bigger problem than defense since he came back

[titans04]

11 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

I’ll let someone who’s better at stats deal with your first question. For your second question; not that I think this should be an end-all for the discussion but typically EASports will rate the players and the casual-and-above fans tend to agree with their ratings. They have Schneider as the 4th best goalie in this year’s game. https://www.easports.com/nhl/news/2017/nhl-18-player-ratings-top-10-goalies

and if you don’t want to use that for any evidence I don’t blame you, but I’m an active poster on reddit r/hockey, which has fans of all teams, and it’s my opinion that the majority of those users (some 100k +) see Cory as a borderline top-5 and bonifide top-10 goalie. 

yeah as for stats I'll stick with the standard Sav% and GAA from places like espn and other places like that until one of the resident stat guru finds a way to twist the numbers.  Bottom line, happy to have Cory as our goalie and he certainly is handicapped by a relatively weak defense (eye test) not gonna bother looking up numbers to back that up.

Edited January 17, 2018 by titans04

[bobilly45]

1 hour ago, Devs3cups said:

He is a top 7 goalie in this league. He’s not been good lately. I’m confident he’ll find his form again. He’s a great goaltender who’s having a bad stretch, like Price had in MTL, Rinne in NSH, etc. have had. I agree he has to be better though, no doubt about it, and I think he knows it too.

He's an average to slightly above average goalie..  idc what stats say,  a post on the 1st page is dead on about shots a goalie face and how They re all counted the same, even though they're easy ones and very hard ones. Stats for a goalie don't tell the whole story.  

Price is much better then cory will ever be, he's actually clutch, and shows it time and time again (minus his slump he's in).  Cory doesn't string enough of those games together to be considered top 7, yet alone elite. 

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 hour ago, bobilly45 said:

He's an average to slightly above average goalie..  idc what stats say,  a post on the 1st page is dead on about shots a goalie face and how They re all counted the same, even though they're easy ones and very hard ones. Stats for a goalie don't tell the whole story.  

Price is much better then cory will ever be, he's actually clutch, and shows it time and time again (minus his slump he's in).  Cory doesn't string enough of those games together to be considered top 7, yet alone elite. 

You just don't like him, it's obvious.  

You never say a peep about this "average" crap unless he's in a slump.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Colorado Rockies 1976

[Triumph]

 

1 hour ago, titans04 said:

yeah as for stats I'll stick with the standard Sav% and GAA from places like espn and other places like that until one of the resident stat guru finds a way to twist the numbers.  Bottom line, happy to have Cory as our goalie and he certainly is handicapped by a relatively weak defense (eye test) not gonna bother looking up numbers to back that up.

GAA is garbage and worth nothing when it comes to evaluating goalies. All it's doing is evaluating the team defense along with the save percentage. Is Schneider top 7?  I can't say that he is, but it's also fatuous to think that he should be one of the 7 best goalies in the league because of that - Vasilevsky is not paid what he worth, and neither is Gibson.  I think Schneider is still top 10 but there's a lot of hockey left to play this season.

50 minutes ago, bobilly45 said:

He's an average to slightly above average goalie..  idc what stats say,  a post on the 1st page is dead on about shots a goalie face and how They re all counted the same, even though they're easy ones and very hard ones. Stats for a goalie don't tell the whole story.  

Price is much better then cory will ever be, he's actually clutch, and shows it time and time again (minus his slump he's in).  Cory doesn't string enough of those games together to be considered top 7, yet alone elite. 

And yet Price's career save percentage is lower.  Maybe the team a goalie is on has something to do with this kind of thing.  I don't think Schneider has had a better career than Price, but I think they're pretty even, and let's see what happens when Montreal is terrible.  It's a shame that the Devils and Canucks both wasted Schneider's prime.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Triumph

[mfitz804]

47 minutes ago, bobilly45 said:

He's an average to slightly above average goalie.. 

Tied for 3rd overall in save percentage for goalies with 200 games played. In the history of hockey. Small sample size, yes. But still, not so average. 

 

[Mike Brown]

23 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Zajac re-joined the lineup on 11/16.  From 11/16 - 12/27, Cory put up a .924 save%.  KK in five starts since Travis' return has been up-and-down...he has an .897 save% overall in those five games, but in three of them he was fine stopping the puck (Devs went 2-0-1 in the three).  Cory hasn't been his best as of late. 

Anyway, my point is that the goaltending hasn't been a problem until recently, and sometimes guys just slump.  It's not like goaltending's been an issue the entire time since Travis has been back...your metrics have been skewed by the recent winless streak. 

The league average SV% when goalies face 30 or more shots is .925.  When Schneider had a .924, that's when the team was allowing close to 35 shots a game.  So in essence he was league average at best.

FTR, when goalies face fewer than 30 shots (and play 50+ minutes), the league average SV% is .904.

So if the Devils were playing strong defense from the start, a .924 would have been excellent.  But because the team was allowing close to 35 shots a game, the .924 makes him league average at best, but in actuality it makes him below league average because the league average SV% at 35 shots is actually gonna be even higher.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Mike Brown

[NJDfan1711]

14 hours ago, titans04 said:

not sure anybody around the league would see him as a top 7 goalie.  Not sure there's enough numbers out there to manipulate to show he is, is there?

Guys I could see the average NHL fan putting ahead of Schneider (as a whole, not just specifically this season)... Holtby, Rinne, Price, probably Lundqvist and Quick, maybe even Bobrovsky and Murray or Fleury.   Other guys probably on his level are Bishop, Dubynk, Vasilevsky, etc.  I think it's safe to safe Cory should be in and around the top 10.  I think it's also pretty clear he's not top 5.  There's certainly gray area from 5-15.  Where he slots in there is anyone's guess, and mostly a matter of opinion.

[Nicomo]

22 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Guys I could see the average NHL fan putting ahead of Schneider (as a whole, not just specifically this season)... Holtby, Rinne, Price, probably Lundqvist and Quick, maybe even Bobrovsky and Murray or Fleury.   Other guys probably on his level are Bishop, Dubynk, Vasilevsky, etc.  I think it's safe to safe Cory should be in and around the top 10.  I think it's also pretty clear he's not top 5.  There's certainly gray area from 5-15.  Where he slots in there is anyone's guess, and mostly a matter of opinion.

Maybe Bobrovsky? Guy has won 2 Vezina’s...

[Colorado Rockies 1976]

1 hour ago, Mike Brown said:

The league average SV% when goalies face 30 or more shots is .925.  When Schneider had a .924, that's when the team was allowing close to 35 shots a game.  So in essence he was league average at best.

FTR, when goalies face fewer than 30 shots (and play 50+ minutes), the league average SV% is .904.

So if the Devils were playing strong defense from the start, a .924 would have been excellent.  But because the team was allowing close to 35 shots a game, the .924 makes him league average at best, but in actuality it makes him below league average because the league average SV% at 35 shots is actually gonna be even higher.

Not really sure if I'm buying fully into this argument, as far as you trying to downplay Schneider's save% for that stretch.  He had a .923 save% for the season before this slump, and if you look at the leaderboard and compare him to guys with a similar workload to this point, that compares pretty favorably with those goalies' overall save%s.

Overall, I think that THIS season, Cory's been inconsistent, and there's definitely been games where the big save has eluded him...and these last five games have really killed his season numbers, which like I noted, were looking quite good prior...but regardless, those five games DID happen, so the overall season numbers are what they are.  By his own admission, he needs to be better (especially better than he's been lately), and I'd have to agree with him. 

The one knock I have on Cory, who I still think is a very good goalie until I see him not be one for another one or two full seasons...when he goes cold, he goes COLD.  He's had some sensational stretches here (especially considering that he was on some lousy teams), but he's also had some stretches where you can't believe that it's Cory out there...sure, everyone slumps and can look bad when in one, but I guess since Cory can be a brick wall for extended runs when he's on, it's pretty jarring when it goes completely the other way.     

[Devilsfan118]

Eh for me, I think Zajac has an incredibly long leash with our fanbase (and coaching staff, to be honest).  He's a long-timer who's been around forever and that's granted him some protection from criticism, it seems.

He's useful in defensive situations.  That's it.  If you want to call it 50% of the game, then he's good for about only half of the average game (let's not dive too deep into that, I'm speaking in generalities).  He's an offensive black-hole, and, from the eye test, appears to bring down whatever line he's on.

Him and Boyle on the PP together is just hilariously bad - I truly do not understand the thought process behind that.  If you wanted to have them out there on the 2nd PP as a "grind it out in the corners, throw it to the point, and hope for a tip" type of setup I could maybe see it.  But having those two out there on the #1 PP with Hall is an absolute joke imo.

I was really hoping Zacha would emerge as the #2C this year and force Zajac into a lesser role.

[NJDfan1711]

2 hours ago, Nicomo said:

Maybe Bobrovsky? Guy has won 2 Vezina’s...

True.  I'd consider him above Schneider, but I feel like Bobrovsky doesn't get the same recognition from other people.

[Jerzey]

1 hour ago, Devilsfan118 said:

Eh for me, I think Zajac has an incredibly long leash with our fanbase (and coaching staff, to be honest).  He's a long-timer who's been around forever and that's granted him some protection from criticism, it seems.

He's useful in defensive situations.  That's it.  If you want to call it 50% of the game, then he's good for about only half of the average game (let's not dive too deep into that, I'm speaking in generalities).  He's an offensive black-hole, and, from the eye test, appears to bring down whatever line he's on.

Him and Boyle on the PP together is just hilariously bad - I truly do not understand the thought process behind that.  If you wanted to have them out there on the 2nd PP as a "grind it out in the corners, throw it to the point, and hope for a tip" type of setup I could maybe see it.  But having those two out there on the #1 PP with Hall is an absolute joke imo.

I was really hoping Zacha would emerge as the #2C this year and force Zajac into a lesser role.

I like having Boyle in front of the net on the power play (and Wood on pp2) to get those garbage goals but I agree abiut Zajac. Especially when he’s already used in the pk. Let the young guys like Bratt and Hischier take on those double responsibilities.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Jerzey

[Mike Brown]

2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Not really sure if I'm buying fully into this argument, as far as you trying to downplay Schneider's save% for that stretch.  He had a .923 save% for the season before this slump, and if you look at the leaderboard and compare him to guys with a similar workload to this point, that compares pretty favorably with those goalies' overall save%s.

Overall, I think that THIS season, Cory's been inconsistent, and there's definitely been games where the big save has eluded him...and these last five games have really killed his season numbers, which like I noted, were looking quite good prior...but regardless, those five games DID happen, so the overall season numbers are what they are.  By his own admission, he needs to be better (especially better than he's been lately), and I'd have to agree with him. 

The one knock I have on Cory, who I still think is a very good goalie until I see him not be one for another one or two full seasons...when he goes cold, he goes COLD.  He's had some sensational stretches here (especially considering that he was on some lousy teams), but he's also had some stretches where you can't believe that it's Cory out there...sure, everyone slumps and can look bad when in one, but I guess since Cory can be a brick wall for extended runs when he's on, it's pretty jarring when it goes completely the other way.     

I'm not trying to downplay Cory at all.  I'm just making aware of the fact that as a result of him facing a lot of shots, his SV% was inflated due to higher shot volume.  When separating the higher shot volume games (I use 30 or more) from the lower shot volume games (29 or fewer), every goalie in the past 30 seasons has a higher cumulative SV% in those higher shot volume games.

• 29 or fewer shots: .899. 
• 30 or more shots: .917.

Now that's going back 30 years which crosses over different eras and whatnot.  To break it down even more and going strictly with more recent data, the past 10 years breaks down like this.

• 29 or fewer shots: .906
• 30 or more shots: .926

Since we're talking Cory, here's just his splits in his career.

• 29 or fewer shots: .918
• 30 or more shots: .933

I must emphasize that all of this data only includes games where the goalie plays 50 minutes or more which means relief appearances and games where the goalie gets pulled due to bad play are omitted from the above data.

I still believe Cory is an elite goalie.  He just hasn't shown it these past 2 seasons.

[titans04]

3 hours ago, NJDfan1711 said:

Guys I could see the average NHL fan putting ahead of Schneider (as a whole, not just specifically this season)... Holtby, Rinne, Price, probably Lundqvist and Quick, maybe even Bobrovsky and Murray or Fleury.   Other guys probably on his level are Bishop, Dubynk, Vasilevsky, etc.  I think it's safe to safe Cory should be in and around the top 10.  I think it's also pretty clear he's not top 5.  There's certainly gray area from 5-15.  Where he slots in there is anyone's guess, and mostly a matter of opinion.

maybe Quick, Lundqvist and Bobrovsky?  Um yeah all day every day outside of NJ. 

Edited January 18, 2018 by titans04

[NJDfan1711]

1 hour ago, titans04 said:

maybe Quick, Lundqvist and Bobrovsky?  Um yeah all day every day outside of NJ. 

I know.  I meant it as a generalization to whoever I quoted - they were saying that Cory was a top 5 goalie, so I was just trying to list off the top of my head goalies that I thought would be rated higher if polled in a league-wide consensus.  Didn't mean it to be taken so literally lol.

[titans04]

1 hour ago, NJDfan1711 said:

I know.  I meant it as a generalization to whoever I quoted - they were saying that Cory was a top 5 goalie, so I was just trying to list off the top of my head goalies that I thought would be rated higher if polled in a league-wide consensus.  Didn't mean it to be taken so literally lol.

my bad - all good.

[thecoffeecake]

On 1/17/2018 at 9:34 AM, SterioDesign said:

Analytics will always be flawed as hockey is not a black and white sport like baseball or football where it's a bit more cut & dry about what will happen during a play. 

Analytics can predict tendencies and that's about it. Way way wayyy too much stuff in a hockey play cannot be quantified as it's hard to put a number on quality and situations.

Here are a few scenarios that are quantified the same way. Cause a shot is a shot. 

• A wrister from the blueline in the goalie's chest = shot

• A one-timer from the point with a screened goalie = shot

• A wrister that hits a stick and a leg before going in while the goalie was screened = shot

• A wrister that hits a stick and a leg while the goalie had great visibility of the puck = shot

• A player pushing a puck already in the slot in an empty net while the goalie is stuck on the other side = shot

• A player breaking the puck out of his zone and taking a weak wrister to the goalie just to get a faceoff in the offensive zone or make a line change = shot

• Deflections = Shot

Then we need to talk about identical shots that were blocked or simply went wide. Then they don't the same while if they would have went 1-2 inches aside would have been a shot. It's also not taking into consideration if the player made a good play at all.

You can control the play 100% for literally 2 minutes in the offensive zone, having the craziest possession / tic-tac-toe play in hockey history. If your shot is blocked or go wide and miss the net it's not quantified within that stat. While again, a goon skating the puck up and shooting the puck at the goalie with zero chance of going in will.

Then we're not talking about quality and precision of the shots. If you have Andy Greene or Ovechkin taking a shot. It's also quite different but it's not quantified into those stats.

And also you can have players who gets tons of shots per game cause they take mindless shots from anywhere and you can have guys taking lots of shots cause they always put themselves in the right position or create their own chances, same thing you can't quantify that with shots.

It's not that different from the dumb +/- stat in which it totally depends on if someone else on the ice is scoring or if you're getting scored on, that it's your fault or not. You can make the most insane play and your teammate may miss the net or the goalie may make the save of the year. Or you may take a sharp angle shot and it hits 4 legs and go in. Nobody else on the ice deserves to be + or - after a play like that lol 

 

There have been metrics created to account for some of those issues, like home plate shot attempts. And don't forget when corsi was first gaining steam, it was often used alongside Fenwick, which, as far as I remember was Corsi minus blocked shots, essentially making blocked shots another controlled skill, making up for one of the issues you mentioned. You could allow tic-tac-toe passes all day, but if you have strong shot blocking, it's not as much of a liability. 

[SterioDesign]

Just now, thecoffeecake said:

There have been metrics created to account for some of those issues, like home plate shot attempts. And don't forget when corsi was first gaining steam, it was often used alongside Fenwick, which, as far as I remember was Corsi minus blocked shots, essentially making blocked shots another controlled skill, making up for one of the issues you mentioned. You could allow tic-tac-toe passes all day, but if you have strong shot blocking, it's not as much of a liability. 

Well of course but then you still need to look at a few of them together to get the big picture. I mean look at it as if shots are apples... You get a bucket of 20 apples and they are all big, red and juicy. Let's call those the Ovechkin apples... then you get another bucket where you get maybe 5 decents apples and the rest are rotten and small. Let's call that bucket the Andy Greene bucket.

You can say there's 20 apples in each buckets obviously. But the quality of the apple / shot will make a huge difference. You can't use those metrics as if all shots are the same quality and weight the same. Right there it's skewing the stat cause not all units are equal.

[NJDevs4978]

On 1/17/2018 at 5:37 PM, Martyisth3b3st said:

On the contrary I think the majority of NHL fans - myself included - think he’s without question a top-7 goalie.

When he's never so much as made the playoffs as a Devil?  I think this is looking through homeristic glasses.  Two years ago?  Maybe.  But not coming off a poor season last year and a wildly inconsistent one this year where he's blown more late leads than the Met bullpen.

To be fair though I'm not sure there actually ARE seven goalies you could say no doubt are top seven.  There's a lot of sameness and inconsistent mediocrity to the position these days.

Edited January 22, 2018 by NJDevs4978

[mfitz804]

Why on earth are we still talking about how Cory is not a top 7 goalie without people posting their list of the 7 guys they think are better than him? I’m not saying he is or isn’t, but if you are going to say he’s not, back it up with “these are the top 7 guys”. 

[Muevelos]

I like Cory but he is to inconsistent. Latter end of top 10. Also wonder if his first season with us was more of an anomaly. 

[thecoffeecake]

15 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Well of course but then you still need to look at a few of them together to get the big picture. I mean look at it as if shots are apples... You get a bucket of 20 apples and they are all big, red and juicy. Let's call those the Ovechkin apples... then you get another bucket where you get maybe 5 decents apples and the rest are rotten and small. Let's call that bucket the Andy Greene bucket.

You can say there's 20 apples in each buckets obviously. But the quality of the apple / shot will make a huge difference. You can't use those metrics as if all shots are the same quality and weight the same. Right there it's skewing the stat cause not all units are equal.

 Well, shot percentage. 

[SterioDesign]

5 minutes ago, thecoffeecake said:

 Well, shot percentage. 

Well that's a shot based on results (based on if the puck went in or not) which is not really what we're talking about here. sh!tty shots can go in and precise shots can be stopped, it's kind of like +/-. The number doesnt tell the whole story.

 

[thecoffeecake]

8 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

Well that's a shot based on results (based on if the puck went in or not) which is not really what we're talking about here. sh!tty shots can go in and precise shots can be stopped, it's kind of like +/-. The number doesnt tell the whole story.

 

Yea but that evens out. Good shooters are going to score more than bad shooters. At this point you're saying the game is totally random and skill has nothing to do with it. 

[SterioDesign]

Just now, thecoffeecake said:

Yea but that evens out. Good shooters are going to score more than bad shooters. At this point you're saying the game is totally random and skill has nothing to do with it. 

That's not at all what i'm saying. All i'm saying is that stats based on shots are not necessarily telling the whole story, there's more to it than that