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Kinkyisth3b3st

PLAYOFFS: The "Don't Jinx It" Thread

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There are a few other threads from a little while ago, but none seem to focus specifically deal with: What do the boys need to do to get into the playoffs? 

The Metro is (obviously) a gauntlet. Barring a big run from an Atlantic team, 5 of the following teams will make the playoffs this year (with their corresponding chances, according to playoffstatus.net)

  1. Capitals (95%)
  2. Devils (67%)
  3. Flyers (65%)
  4. Blue Jackets (71%)
  5. Penguins (60%)
  6. Islanders (49%)
  7. Rangers (36%)
  8. Hurricanes (33%)

Obviously, these teams will sort it out down the stretch. Here's what needs to happen for the Devils to see playoff hockey for the first time since Bernier's 5-minute-major penalty.

  1. If the Devils finish with 88 points (finishing 16-19-0): The Devils have a 72% chance at making the playoffs
  2. If the Devils finish with 92 points (finishing 18-17-0): The Devils have a 98% chance at making the playoffs
  3. If the Devils keep up their current season-long pace and finish with 98 points (Finishing 21-14-0), The Devils have a 100% chance at the playoffs and 52% chance at the 2nd Metro spot

It doesn't seem likely that the Devils will win the Metro, unless there's a pretty big collapse by Caps. The Devils currently have an 11% chance at finishing the season in 1st. 

I'll do my best to keep this as updated as possible. The recent slide has hurt their chances, no doubt, but it isn't looking nearly as grim as many of you would think. 

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NHL 500 and they should be in.

I think that should be the team’s goal to close out the season: .500 hockey or better. If you miss the playoffs oh well, but at least that clearly indicates the first third wasn’t just a fluke.

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Agree that this 2-6-3 run wasn't going to be enough to sink the Devils, and that right now things really aren't that grim.  Teams slump, and the Devils have enough flaws that it wasn't crazy to expect a stretch like this at some point (though at 22-9-5 we were all obviously hoping against one). 

Not so sure that they can afford a similar run later though.  If they can tread water the rest of the way to the tune of 36-38 points in their remaining games, I'll take it...that least would mean that they didn't fall off a cliff. 

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1 hour ago, Crisis said:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This site has us at 83.5% to make the playoffs.  Does anyone know why these two sources have such a large discrepancy?  I'm not one for researching these things.

I do not know that answer. I've always used playoffstatus, out of habit and no other reason whatsoever.

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Agree that this 2-6-3 run wasn't going to be enough to sink the Devils, and that right now things really aren't that grim.  Teams slump, and the Devils have enough flaws that it wasn't crazy to expect a stretch like this at some point (though at 22-9-5 we were all obviously hoping against one). 

Not so sure that they can afford a similar run later though.  If they can tread water the rest of the way to the tune of 36-38 points in their remaining games, I'll take it...that least would mean that they didn't fall off a cliff. 

They also got lucky in the fact that most metro teams (besides caps and flyers) are in slumps and haven't been winning much

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2 hours ago, jagknife said:

NHL 500 and they should be in.

I think that should be the team’s goal to close out the season: .500 hockey or better. If you miss the playoffs oh well, but at least that clearly indicates the first third wasn’t just a fluke.

Our injuries will be the difference...  esp to the goalies.  Idk what corys is, but if it's a groin pull it can take a while to return.  Kk prob won't be ready for a while.  Applebee has looked good so far, let's hope he's got a bunch of good games in him

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On HF Boards, someone brought up the idea of trading for Mrazek if the injuries to KK and Cory are worse than expected.  Probably wouldn’t take a whole lot.  Otherwise, maybe Antti Raanta for someone like Quenneville or like a second or third rounder?

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5 minutes ago, Daniel said:

On HF Boards, someone brought up the idea of trading for Mrazek if the injuries to KK and Cory are worse than expected.  Probably wouldn’t take a whole lot.  Otherwise, maybe Antti Raanta for someone like Quenneville or like a second or third rounder?

Well if how Mrazek played against us was any indication of his talent, go get him. 

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Team Make Playoffs Make 2nd Round Make 3rd Round Make Final Win Cup Points Win Division 2nd in Divison 3rd in Divison WC 1   WC 2   Win Draft Lottery
Tampa Bay LightningTBL 99.99% 63.4% 35.1% 19.5% 10.6% 112.4 65.1% 34.2% 0.7% 0% 0% 0%
Vegas Golden KnightsVGK 99.95% 60.2% 35.5% 18.1% 9.4% 112.6 95.7% 3.6% 0.6% 0% 0% 0%
Boston BruinsBOS 99.92% 60.4% 32.3% 18% 9.6% 109.5 34.8% 62.6% 2.5% 0% 0% 0%
Winnipeg JetsWPG 98.1% 54.9% 30.4% 16.7% 8.8% 106.4 42.1% 28.5% 15.6% 8.3% 3.5% 0%
Nashville PredatorsNSH 96.68% 39.9% 15.9% 6.9% 2.9% 105.8 37% 27.9% 16.9% 9.8% 5.1% 0%
Dallas StarsDAL 89.24% 49.2% 27.6% 15.7% 8.6% 100.3 10.8% 20.1% 25.8% 20.2% 12.4% 0.1%
Washington CapitalsWSH 87.54% 36.2% 14.9% 5.9% 2.3% 97.3 29.4% 21.6% 17% 11.3% 8.3% 0.4%
Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT 84.09% 47.5% 27% 14.1% 7.6% 95.6 21.4% 20.9% 18.2% 13.7% 9.8% 0.5%
New Jersey DevilsNJD 83.04% 39.7% 19% 8.5% 3.8% 96.3 22% 20.5% 17.1% 13.3% 10.1% 0.5%
Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ 79.33% 40.4% 20.7% 10.1% 5% 95.3 17.8% 18.1% 17.7% 14.6% 11.3% 0.7%
St. Louis BluesSTL 78.63% 38.4% 19.5% 10.1% 5.1% 98.2 5.9% 12.5% 19.7% 21.8% 18.8% 0.3%
Toronto Maple LeafsTOR 77.39% 32.7% 14.3% 7.1% 3.3% 92 0.1% 2.9% 69% 2.5% 2.9% 1%
San Jose SharksSJS 72.21% 34.4% 15.1% 6.5% 2.9% 95.5 1.9% 38.3% 27.7% 1.3% 3% 0.7%
Calgary FlamesCGY 69.14% 37.5% 18% 8.8% 4.3% 94.4 1.8% 34.3% 28.5% 1.3% 3.2% 0.8%
Colorado AvalancheCOL 68.75% 29.6% 13.4% 6.2% 2.8% 96.2 3.6% 8.6% 15.3% 20.4% 20.9% 0.5%
Los Angeles KingsLAK 45.47% 19.8% 7.9% 3.1% 1.3% 91.1 0.5% 15.5% 23.8% 1.7% 4.1% 1.7%
Philadelphia FlyersPHI 45.17% 18.4% 8% 3.3% 1.4% 89.1 3.8% 6.8% 9.6% 11.6% 13.3% 2.4%
Carolina HurricanesCAR 42.65% 21.6% 11.8% 6% 3.2% 89 2.8% 5.9% 9.3% 11.2% 13.4% 2.5%
New York IslandersNYI 31.3% 11.7% 4.8% 2% 0.8% 87.1 1.7% 3.7% 6.1% 8.4% 11.5% 3.3%
Minnesota WildMIN 28.38% 11% 4.8% 2.1% 1% 90.3 0.3% 1.5% 4.3% 8.3% 13.8% 2%
New York RangersNYR 25.6% 9.9% 4.2% 1.8% 0.7% 86 1% 2.6% 5% 7.1% 9.9% 3.9%

This is from another playoff prediction simulator.  Take it for what it's worth, but last season at Christmas they had all of the teams in the playoffs correct except for the Kings.

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24 minutes ago, EdgeControl said:

who's not loving that 25.6% :evil:

That's why I specifically copied the chart and stopped it after that row :D

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The Devils will be fine.  They just need to get better goaltending.

DUo0EcaVwAAGJMc.jpg:large

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1 hour ago, Mike Brown said:

The Devils will be fine.  They just need to get better goaltending.

DUo0EcaVwAAGJMc.jpg:large

if we had some finishers, that chart may mean something

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1 hour ago, EdgeControl said:

if we had some finishers, that chart may mean something

I agree, but we've been a top 10 offensive team all year.  Goaltending is the biggest issue right now,

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19 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

I agree, but we've been a top 10 offensive team all year.  Goaltending is the biggest issue right now,

Aside from that lovely chart, isn’t it suffice to say you cannot give up 4 goals a game expect to win? Best team in the league only averages 3.5 goals for....

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4 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

The Devils will be fine.  They just need to get better goaltending.

DUo0EcaVwAAGJMc.jpg:large

I don’t understand these fancy schmancy stats, but that chart seems to have a complete inverse relationship to our Win/Loss record (huge dip in the early part of the season and our best hockey as of late) which probably fuels the “corsi literally means fvckin nothing” argument a tad, eh?

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That chart means fvck all. Pittsburgh just made a playoff spot yet they're in one spot ahead of us. I'm also not buying the 25.6% the Rags have.

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41 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Aside from that lovely chart, isn’t it suffice to say you cannot give up 4 goals a game expect to win? Best team in the league only averages 3.5 goals for....

The goaltending needs to be better.  We're one of the best teams at suppressing HD chances.  But our goalies have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November.

Edited by Mike Brown

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33 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

I don’t understand these fancy schmancy stats, but that chart seems to have a complete inverse relationship to our Win/Loss record (huge dip in the early part of the season and our best hockey as of late) which probably fuels the “corsi literally means fvckin nothing” argument a tad, eh?

The goaltending has let the team down since the middle of November, and that's why the wins and losses haven't been good.  We literally have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November.

Edited by Mike Brown

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32 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

The goaltending needs to be better.  We're one of the best teams at suppressing HD chances.  But our goalies have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November.

Make me understand why that stat makes a difference when one can simply look at the goals against and see the same thing. 

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7 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Make me understand why that stat makes a difference when one can simply look at the goals against and see the same thing. 

Because his has more letters

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I almost vomited the other day when I realized how real the possibility is that we'll be in the playoffs. Do you guys remember what it feels like? 

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On 2018-01-24 at 9:02 PM, Crisis said:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This site has us at 83.5% to make the playoffs.  Does anyone know why these two sources have such a large discrepancy?  I'm not one for researching these things.

Because they don't look at the same input data and don't value it the same way. Sportsclubstats looks primarily at goals while others also look at other metrics, schedule, injuries etc.

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