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PLAYOFFS: The "Don't Jinx It" Thread


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7 hours ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

I don’t understand these fancy schmancy stats, but that chart seems to have a complete inverse relationship to our Win/Loss record (huge dip in the early part of the season and our best hockey as of late) which probably fuels the “corsi literally means fvckin nothing” argument a tad, eh?

The strength and reason people used shot based metrics is because they do a better job of predicting future goaldifferential than past goaldifferential at a certain point. That's it. Comparing it to the W/L record is flawed since that brings in goals from strengths (PP, PK etc) that the above chart doesn't measure. And then you have goaltending, finishing talent quality of shot on top of that which you need to account for. It's not that great for single games or smaller samples, but still has value. 

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I'll bet you $5 that if Hall signs an extension, you'll complain about the color of ink in the pen. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hall said he adores the system here, its the first time he's feeling chemistry with other players, first time he's treated the way he is with the GM and coach etc etc the guy knows more than all of us

The Devils currently have a 100% chance at making the playoffs.

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13 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Make me understand why that stat makes a difference when one can simply look at the goals against and see the same thing. 

Because goals only happen 6 times a game.  Corsi happens close to 100 times a game.  It's a lot easier to gather conclusions from Corsi than goals, because goals are a lot more random of an event than Corsi.

The Devils have the lowest HDSV% since the middle of November despite the fact they're 8th in high danger chances against.  Everything is pointing to our goalies needing to be better in order for this team to succeed.  The Devils have been a top 10 defensive team for the past 2.5 months.  Goaltending has been the biggest culprit for the goals against problem.  Goaltending has been the achilles heel for practically the entire year.

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1 hour ago, Mike Brown said:

Because goals only happen 6 times a game.  Corsi happens close to 100 times a game.  It's a lot easier to gather conclusions from Corsi than goals, because goals are a lot more random of an event than Corsi.

I still don't get it. Unless you are drawing a distinction between goals that are the goalie's fault, and goals that are the defense's fault, is that it?

I'm going to go by goals. 4+ goals a game, while scoring 2.9 goals a game, is too many fvcking goals to give up.  

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3 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I still don't get it. Unless you are drawing a distinction between goals that are the goalie's fault, and goals that are the defense's fault, is that it?

I'm going to go by goals. 4+ goals a game, while scoring 2.9 goals a game, is too many fvcking goals to give up.  

Our goalies have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November while the team is allowing the 8th fewest HD chances per 60 minutes.

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52 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

Our goalies have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November while the team is allowing the 8th fewest HD chances per 60 minutes.

I have a theory that certain people who hold themselves out to be human are actually robots, and eventually they will destroy us all.

I'm watching you. 

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3 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

I have a theory that certain people who hold themselves out to be human are actually robots, and eventually they will destroy us all.

I'm watching you. 

Huh?  Is it that hard to understand that when you have one of the best defensive teams in the league, and are still allowing too many goals that it's the goalies' that's causing it?

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1 minute ago, Mike Brown said:

Huh?  Is it that hard to understand that when you have one of the best defensive teams in the league, and are still allowing too many goals that it's the goalies' that's causing it?

Look at the question I asked you and your android response. 

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On 1/29/2018 at 11:13 AM, mfitz804 said:

 Unless you are drawing a distinction between goals that are the goalie's fault, and goals that are the defense's fault, is that it?

 

2 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

Your question wasn't very clear.

Really?

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28 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

I don't see a problem with my answer.  I explained why the goalies are at fault more than the defense quite clearly.

I am 100% sure you do not see a problem. Maybe after they upgrade your operating system. 

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10 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

Again, if my response didn't answer your question, then you need to make your question more clear.

Again, my question could not have been more clear and only required a yes or no answer. But instead you responded:

On 1/29/2018 at 2:38 PM, Mike Brown said:

Our goalies have the worst HDSV% since the middle of November while the team is allowing the 8th fewest HD chances per 60 minutes.

Because you can't help spitting out stats. 

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

Again, my question could not have been more clear and only required a yes or no answer. But instead you responded:

Because you can't help spitting out stats. 

Well I don't understand your question.  So can you find a way to rephrase it so I can?

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Sammy Semantics is at it again.  Good lord.  It was so much better when you just posted your cringe-inducing recaps and called it a day. 

As for this for HDSV% crap...you don't really need that stat to see that the Devils haven't been getting great goaltending for a while...and it seems like breaking out that "8th is HDSV chances against since mid-Nov" stat is a way to try make the defense sound better than it's really been.  Cory was fine through 12/27, whatever his HDSV% was...he was at .923 for the season to that point...stopping over 92% of the shots overall coming his way was good enough for me.  He was at .871 in the seven starts after, giving up at least 3+ in all of them...yeah, that's not good...some of that was due to bad luck and some due to defensive issues, but Cory himself would tell you that he needs to be better.  KK has been pretty good in four out of his last five (he was very good last night), but it's still too hard to tell what you're going to get from him from start to start.  mfitz made it pretty simple...if Devils ever get to a point where it's a constant struggle to give up less than three goals most nights, they'll be in trouble.     

 

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2 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

Well I don't understand your question.  So can you find a way to rephrase it so I can?

Let me see. 

01010101 01101110 01101100 01100101 01110011 01110011 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01100100 01110010 01100001 01110111 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100100 01101001 01110011 01110100 01101001 01101110 01100011 01110100 01101001 01101111 01101110 00100000 01100010 01100101 01110100 01110111 01100101 01100101 01101110 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01101001 01100101 00100111 01110011 00100000 01100110 01100001 01110101 01101100 01110100 00101100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100100 01100101 01100110 01100101 01101110 01110011 01100101 00100111 01110011 00100000 01100110 01100001 01110101 01101100 01110100 00101100 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01101001 01110100 00111111

Is that better?

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Sammy Semantics is at it again.  Good lord.  It was so much better when you just posted your cringe-inducing recaps and called it a day. 

As for this for HDSV% crap...you don't really need that stat to see that the Devils haven't been getting great goaltending for a while...and it seems like breaking out that "8th is HDSV chances against since mid-Nov" stat is a way to try make the defense sound better than it's really been.  Cory was fine through 12/27, whatever his HDSV% was...he was at .923 for the season to that point...stopping over 92% of the shots overall coming his way was good enough for me.  He was at .871 in the seven starts after, giving up at least 3+ in all of them...yeah, that's not good...some of that was due to bad luck and some due to defensive issues, but Cory himself would tell you that he needs to be better.  KK has been pretty good in four out of his last five (he was very good last night), but it's still too hard to tell what you're going to get from him from start to start.  mfitz made it pretty simple...if Devils ever get to a point where it's a constant struggle to give up less than three goals most nights, they'll be in trouble.     

 

What I will say in MB’s defense is that teams themselves actually look more at HDSV% or some kind of proprietary version of it more than straight save percentage. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Daniel said:

What I will say in MB’s defense is that teams themselves actually look more at HDSV% or some kind of proprietary version of it more than straight save percentage. 

I wouldn't doubt it, but I was more saying that we really don't need that number to assess the Devils' overall goalie performance as of late.  We can all see that it hasn't been good enough, especially over the last month or so.  But I don't think the D has been quite as good as he's trying to prop it up to be (with metrics) either. 

And of course, in the GDT, MB had to point out that the Devils should be trying to take away low-danger chances as well, in reference to the bang-bang goal (sometimes sh!t happens, an uber-clean faceoff loss in your own zone leads to a quick goal for the opposition)...so I guess that means medium-danger chances are OK, heh heh. 

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2 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Let me see. 

01010101 01101110 01101100 01100101 01110011 01110011 00100000 01111001 01101111 01110101 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01100100 01110010 01100001 01110111 01101001 01101110 01100111 00100000 01100001 00100000 01100100 01101001 01110011 01110100 01101001 01101110 01100011 01110100 01101001 01101111 01101110 00100000 01100010 01100101 01110100 01110111 01100101 01100101 01101110 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01101001 01100101 00100111 01110011 00100000 01100110 01100001 01110101 01101100 01110100 00101100 00100000 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01100111 01101111 01100001 01101100 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01110010 01100101 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100101 00100000 01100100 01100101 01100110 01100101 01101110 01110011 01100101 00100111 01110011 00100000 01100110 01100001 01110101 01101100 01110100 00101100 00100000 01101001 01110011 00100000 01110100 01101000 01100001 01110100 00100000 01101001 01110100 00111111

Is that better?

:lol: You're slaying 'em today man.  

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2 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I wouldn't doubt it, but I was more saying that we really don't need that number to assess the Devils' overall goalie performance as of late.  We can all see that it hasn't been good enough, especially over the last month or so.  But I don't think the D has been quite as good as he's trying to prop it up to be (with metrics) either. 

And of course, in the GDT, MB had to point out that the Devils should be trying to take away low-danger chances as well, in reference to the bang-bang goal (sometimes sh!t happens, an uber-clean faceoff loss in your own zone leads to a quick goal for the opposition)...so I guess that means medium-danger chances are OK, heh heh. 

It took me five minutes to realize that I wasn't "MB" in this post and was wondering what the hell you were talking about. 

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