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PLAYOFFS: The "Don't Jinx It" Thread


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7 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

What I'm trying to tell you is that it's still way too early to worry about the standings.

Homie there’s like 30 games left. Last year in the eastern conference: weren’t 7 of the 8 Eastern Conference playoff teams in that playoff position by this time? 

There is time for a big run and there’s time for a big losing streak, but it is NOT too early to worry about the standings.

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I'll bet you $5 that if Hall signs an extension, you'll complain about the color of ink in the pen. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Hall said he adores the system here, its the first time he's feeling chemistry with other players, first time he's treated the way he is with the GM and coach etc etc the guy knows more than all of us

The Devils currently have a 100% chance at making the playoffs.

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59 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Homie there’s like 30 games left. Last year in the eastern conference: weren’t 7 of the 8 Eastern Conference playoff teams in that playoff position by this time? 

There is time for a big run and there’s time for a big losing streak, but it is NOT too early to worry about the standings.

30 games is a lot.

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Well, since Mike Brown did his best to kill this thread earlier, let's fire it back up. We've got 31 games to go. Buckle in, babes.

  • The Devils currently sit at a 92.1% chance to make the playoffs. This is higher than everyone behind us in the Metro by nearly 15%. Neat.
  • If something disastrous happens, it would take an 11-16-4 finish for the Devils to have a >50% chance at missing the playoffs. 
  • If the Devils do indeed limp to the finish, going 12-15-4 - they still have a 68% chance at the playoffs.
  • Should the Devils keep their current pace up and finish the season 16-12-3 - they will 100% make the playoffs, likely as the 2-seed in the Metro. 
  • It would take a stretch like 18-10-3 for the Devils to have a >50% chance at winning the Metro.

 

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15 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Well, since Mike Brown did his best to kill this thread earlier, let's fire it back up. We've got 31 games to go. Buckle in, babes.

  • The Devils currently sit at a 92.1% chance to make the playoffs. This is higher than everyone behind us in the Metro by nearly 15%. Neat.
  • If something disastrous happens, it would take an 11-16-4 finish for the Devils to have a >50% chance at missing the playoffs. 
  • If the Devils do indeed limp to the finish, going 12-15-4 - they still have a 68% chance at the playoffs.
  • Should the Devils keep their current pace up and finish the season 16-12-3 - they will 100% make the playoffs, likely as the 2-seed in the Metro. 
  • It would take a stretch like 18-10-3 for the Devils to have a >50% chance at winning the Metro.

 

Has anyone looked at the strength of the competition for the rest of the games?  Going by current points (We have 62) 

We play 1 team with less than 50 points (Ottawa);

3 games with teams that have 50 points (Florida, Montreal 2x);

10 games with teams having 55-58 points (all Metro Teams NYR, Car 4x, Philly, Col 2x, Isles 2x);

8 games with teams having 60-64 points (Calgary, Ducks, LA, Minn, Pitts 3x, SJ)

2 games with teams having 65-67 points ( Wash & Toronto)

7 games with teams having 70-75 points (Vegas 2x, Winnipeg, Nash, Boston, Tampa 2x)

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8 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

....oof ouch owie.

I mean if we win all 14 games where we play someone with currently 58 points or less we should be in.  Especially since they 10 game group is all against the Metro, Won't happen that way of course

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40 minutes ago, lucifer91 said:

Has anyone looked at the strength of the competition for the rest of the games?  Going by current points (We have 62) 

We play 1 team with less than 50 points (Ottawa);

3 games with teams that have 50 points (Florida, Montreal 2x);

10 games with teams having 55-58 points (all Metro Teams NYR, Car 4x, Philly, Col 2x, Isles 2x);

8 games with teams having 60-64 points (Calgary, Ducks, LA, Minn, Pitts 3x, SJ)

2 games with teams having 65-67 points ( Wash & Toronto)

7 games with teams having 70-75 points (Vegas 2x, Winnipeg, Nash, Boston, Tampa 2x)

Those games against Vegas are either going to be awesome to watch or awful, there wont be any middle ground, IMO.

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Guys I don't think I can handle this. What if they get swept and go on another 6 year drought? What if I have to work and miss a game 7? What if 09 happens? Someone help. This wasn't so hard when we were in the playoffs all the time. Besides jumping on the Eagles bandwagon, I haven't seen a playoff game since 2012. I was 19 years old, I didn't get how the world worked. HOW DO I HANDLE THIS NOW. No matter what happens, I'm gonna vomit. 

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12 hours ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Well, since Mike Brown did his best to kill this thread earlier, let's fire it back up. We've got 31 games to go. Buckle in, babes.

  • The Devils currently sit at a 92.1% chance to make the playoffs. This is higher than everyone behind us in the Metro by nearly 15%. Neat.
  • If something disastrous happens, it would take an 11-16-4 finish for the Devils to have a >50% chance at missing the playoffs. 
  • If the Devils do indeed limp to the finish, going 12-15-4 - they still have a 68% chance at the playoffs.
  • Should the Devils keep their current pace up and finish the season 16-12-3 - they will 100% make the playoffs, likely as the 2-seed in the Metro. 
  • It would take a stretch like 18-10-3 for the Devils to have a >50% chance at winning the Metro.

 

That is via moneypuck.com, right? I'm not too sold on that model although the per game methodology seems solid when I read through it. Dom Luschsysyzzsyn at the Athletic had us at 68% before the Sens game, which seems more reasonable to me. McCurdy at HockeyViz has us at 92.3 points going into the Sens game, which is almost the same as The Athletic's model (92.8). I'd take both those over the moneypuck.com one. I see people quoting Sportsclubstats here and there, and I'd advice against it (it is, or at least was, primarily a goalbased model), although soon it'll be as good as any because teams run out of time to regress towards the mean.

Either way - Devils are in a great spot. But it's gonna be a nervous stretch of games.

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With 30 games to go I'd figure I'd start showing the required record to make the playoffs.  I'll do this every 5 games for the remainder of the season.

AS OF 2/8/2018

  • 89 points = 53.8%
    • 13-16-1
    • 12-15-3
    • 11-14-5
  • 90 points = 72.0%
    • 14-16-0
    • 13-15-2
    • 12-14-4
  • 91 points = 85.9%
    • 14-15-1
    • 13-14-3
    • 12-13-5
  • 92 points = 94.2%
    • 15-15-0
    • 14-14-2
    • 13-13-4
  • 100 points = IN PLAYOFFS
    • 19-11-0
    • 18-10-2
    • 17-9-4
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6 hours ago, Mike Brown said:

With 30 games to go I'd figure I'd start showing the required record to make the playoffs.  I'll do this every 5 games for the remainder of the season.

AS OF 2/8/2018

  • 89 points = 53.8%
    • 13-16-1
    • 12-15-3
    • 11-14-5
  • 90 points = 72.0%
    • 14-16-0
    • 13-15-2
    • 12-14-4
  • 91 points = 85.9%
    • 14-15-1
    • 13-14-3
    • 12-13-5
  • 92 points = 94.2%
    • 15-15-0
    • 14-14-2
    • 13-13-4
  • 100 points = IN PLAYOFFS
    • 19-11-0
    • 18-10-2
    • 17-9-4

Weren't you the one who said 30 games is a lot...? :huh:

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1 hour ago, mfitz804 said:

Honestly, as number-centric as he is, is it far fetched to believe that 30 games means don't worry, but 29 games means start watching the standings?

Nope lol.  Hopefully we win tonight of course, but if we lose, watch him hit the panic button.

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5 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

That was before the last game. Obviously that was the dividing line.

 

5 hours ago, mfitz804 said:

Honestly, as number-centric as he is, is it far fetched to believe that 30 games means don't worry, but 29 games means start watching the standings?

Um what?  My whole point is to not look at the standings, and that it's dumb to scoreboard watch.  I stand pat to that stance.  Only thing that's important is the team getting to a certain point threshold to make the playoffs.  The Devils control their own destiny, so as long as they get to the required number of points, nothing else matters.  I'm just showing the records needed to get to those point thresholds.  So I'm not standings watching at all.  How did you make that conclusion?

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7 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

 

Um what?  My whole point is to not look at the standings, and that it's dumb to scoreboard watch.  I stand pat to that stance.  Only thing that's important is the team getting to a certain point threshold to make the playoffs.  The Devils control their own destiny, so as long as they get to the required number of points, nothing else matters.  I'm just showing the records needed to get to those point thresholds.  So I'm not standings watching at all.  How did you make that conclusion?

 

12 minutes ago, Mike Brown said:

Yes.  Your point?

If you're not watching the Standings then why the hell would you post a detailed breakdown of playoff chance percentages?  You're contradicting yourself. 

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15 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

How do you determine the “certain point threshold” without watching the number of points other teams have? 

 

11 minutes ago, NJDfan1711 said:

 

If you're not watching the Standings then why the hell would you post a detailed breakdown of playoff chance percentages?  You're contradicting yourself. 

For both of you, please take this advice:

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