GDT: Columbus @ Devils 7:00 PM

[Derlique]

I don't understand why tonight is the breaking point with Kinkaid for hynes.  He's had much worse games 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Derlique

[Triumph]

1 minute ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

Spectacular. As if watching Kinkaid isn’t insulting enough, we’ll have to watch him ruin Elias with a 6 spot against the best offense in the NHL.

Didn't you just get on a guy for being a pessimist?  Kinkaid's game tonight wasn't awful and he played pretty well last week.  

[Devils Pride 26]

1 minute ago, Triumph said:

Schneider has skated the last 2 days and with no setbacks he should return by next week.  The idea that Shero needs to be replaced because he won't go get a 4th goalie is ludicrous.  How happy would Mrazek be to sit on the bench here for all but back-to-backs?  That's what Kinkaid is going to be doing when Schneider returns.

I expect an NHL GM to have a little more foresight than a group of people on a message board and recognize a move needs to be made sooner. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Schneider has been out 21 games now. A quarter of the season. How big of a sample do you need? It shows 3 scenarios:

a) Shero and co. underestimate how long Schneider will be out.

 Shero and co. have the belief goaltending has not been a massive issue and we are getting decent performances 

c) Shero and co. are punting the year, completely unwilling to sacrifice anything for the future as we are a year ahead of schedule and it’s not worth gunning for.

For their sake I really hope it’s A. But even that screams unprepared. 

[Devs64]

11 minutes ago, Satans Hockey said:

I still don't like Kinkaid and that second goal sucked but we couldn't score in a brothel tonight. 

Not the day he can be proud of for sure. Should've stopped that shot. But you're right - Bob shut the door. 

[Devs64]

51 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

Deserves*

They’re still very much alive. 

Sure

[Nicomo]

At least they get Wood back Thursday. 

[mikepeluso8]

Better team lost. At some point, we will pull one of those out. Sucks.

[mikepeluso8]

48 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Well yeah Bob was good as usual. But i'd be decent too if players would constantly shoot directly at my chest lol 

That shot by a wide open Brian Boyle was HORRIBLE.  He put it directly on the logo.  Ugly

[SterioDesign]

5 minutes ago, Devils Pride 26 said:

I expect an NHL GM to have a little more foresight than a group of people on a message board and recognize a move needs to be made sooner. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Schneider has been out 21 games now. A quarter of the season. How big of a sample do you need? It shows 3 scenarios:

a) Shero and co. underestimate how long Schneider will be out.

 Shero and co. have the belief goaltending has not been a massive issue and we are getting decent performances 

c) Shero and co. are punting the year, completely unwilling to sacrifice anything for the future as we are a year ahead of schedule and it’s not worth gunning for.

For their sake I really hope it’s A. But even that screams unprepared. 

1

i hope it's   cause sunglasses are cool

[SterioDesign]

1 minute ago, mikepeluso8 said:

That shot by a wide open Brian Boyle was HORRIBLE.  He put it directly on the logo.  Ugly

that was one of many

[Triumph]

13 minutes ago, Devils Pride 26 said:

I expect an NHL GM to have a little more foresight than a group of people on a message board and recognize a move needs to be made sooner. Correct me if I’m wrong, but Schneider has been out 21 games now. A quarter of the season. How big of a sample do you need? It shows 3 scenarios:

a) Shero and co. underestimate how long Schneider will be out.

 Shero and co. have the belief goaltending has not been a massive issue and we are getting decent performances 

c) Shero and co. are punting the year, completely unwilling to sacrifice anything for the future as we are a year ahead of schedule and it’s not worth gunning for.

For their sake I really hope it’s A. But even that screams unprepared. 

I rarely hesitate to correct someone when they are wrong, and yes, you are wrong. Schneider got hurt in Game 47 of the season, so Game 48 was the first one he missed completely due to injury.  Tonight was Game 60, so that's 13 games, not 21 games.

Now let's ask some basic questions here, making some assumptions with numbers.  Petr Mrazek's career SV% is .912, Kinkaid's is .908.  The difference between the two, over 13 games assuming 30 shots against a game, is that Mrazek gives up 34 goals and Kinkaid gives up 36.  That's rounded up, and 2 goals is worth about 1 standings point difference.

Obviously you are screaming at me now that Kinkaid's gotten worse and his true talent isn't .908.  Well we don't know that, but even if his true talent is the .895 he's putting up now, the difference between Mrazek's theoretical competence and Kinkaid is still 7 goals, or a little over one win in the standings.  

Bad goaltending can definitely sewer a team, but if the Devils get .895 goaltending the rest of the way they should still be able to sneak into the playoffs if they get offense.  And there's just no guarantees that Mrazek would be good, and certainly trading him to Philadelphia makes more sense for Detroit.  And I think if Schneider is healthy down the stretch he can put up the .912 that we would expect out of Mrazek.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Triumph

[mikepeluso8]

29 minutes ago, Martyisth3b3st said:

While it’s not true to say we’re eliminated from the playoffs, we just had a 4-Point swing against a team who’s currently trying to push us out of the playoffs. 

Thats not “just one loss and everyone is losing their minds”. If you want to buy into the stats, most websites have this Home regulation loss as a -8% or greater hit to our playoff chances. It’s bad.

Agreed.  Needed that one BAD.

When is Schneider back? Jesus christ.  Did he lose a limb?

[Nicomo]

10 minutes ago, mikepeluso8 said:

Agreed.  Needed that one BAD.

When is Schneider back? Jesus christ.  Did he lose a limb?

He’s skating, so the best answer is probably soon. 

[Nicomo]

 

“How long until Kinkaid blocks Hynes on Twitter?”

Edited February 21, 2018 by Nicomo

[Steven M.]

They had 10 remaining metro games at the start of tonight. They weren't going to win them all. They have gone 7-5 since the ASG with no goaltending. If tonight's the end of the season then I'll go fvck myself but certainly doesn't seem like it.

[Devils Pride 26]

5 minutes ago, Triumph said:

I rarely hesitate to correct someone when they are wrong, and yes, you are wrong. Schneider got hurt in Game 47 of the season, so Game 48 was the first one he missed completely due to injury.  Tonight was Game 60, so that's 13 games, not 21 games.

Now let's ask some basic questions here, making some assumptions with numbers.  Petr Mrazek's career SV% is .912, Kinkaid's is .908.  The difference between the two, over 13 games assuming 30 shots against a game, is that Mrazek gives up 34 goals and Kinkaid gives up 36.  That's rounded up, and 2 goals is worth about 1 standings point difference.

Obviously you are screaming at me now that Kinkaid's gotten worse and his true talent isn't .908.  Well we don't know that, but even if his true talent is the .895 he's putting up now, the difference between Mrazek's theoretical competence and Kinkaid is still 7 goals, or a little over one win in the standings.  

Bad goaltending can definitely sewer a team, but if the Devils get .895 goaltending the rest of the way they should still be able to sneak into the playoffs if they get offense.  And there's just no guarantees that Mrazek would be good, and certainly trading him to Philadelphia makes more sense for Detroit.  And I think if Schneider is healthy down the stretch he can put up the .912 that we would expect out of Mrazek.

Ahh I screwed up a couple things on the calendar. Counted the games at the turn of the month twice, and counted from the day he missed the first game after being sick. Stupidity on my party. 

Look, you’ve got me beat on the statistical argument, I’ll give you that. But what I won’t concede is the effect coming from a move to show the team your all in. 

Goaltending has been putrid. I fundamentally disagree with the “the Devils COULD still sneak into the playoffs IF they get the offense. Too many “ifs”. “If” Schneider is healthy down the stretch. 

I respect the reasoning and logic you always bring to the table, but I have trouble rolling the dice and gambling with something that hasn’t been working for a few weeks. You can’t let the season die in the vine without taking some kind of action. There’s no guarantee the Devils are going to repeat the success again next year. 

 

[Triumph]

6 minutes ago, Devils Pride 26 said:

Ahh I screwed up a couple things on the calendar. Counted the games at the turn of the month twice, and counted from the day he missed the first game after being sick. Stupidity on my party. 

Look, you’ve got me beat on the statistical argument, I’ll give you that. But what I won’t concede is the effect coming from a move to show the team your all in. 

Goaltending has been putrid. I fundamentally disagree with the “the Devils COULD still sneak into the playoffs IF they get the offense. Too many “ifs”. “If” Schneider is healthy down the stretch. 

I respect the reasoning and logic you always bring to the table, but I have trouble rolling the dice and gambling with something that hasn’t been working for a few weeks. You can’t let the season die in the vine without taking some kind of action. There’s no guarantee the Devils are going to repeat the success again next year. 

 

There's no need to show the team is all in, because it's not all in.  There's just no sense in spending assets for something that may not even help the team - the way goaltending is, you just don't have many guarantees that what you're getting is better.  Having 3 goalies sucks; the 3rd goalie can't get ice time.  I assume you're just waiving Kinkaid when Schneider comes back, but someone might claim him on waivers - I know this place would celebrate, but that wouldn't be a great outcome either.

The Devils can't guarantee they will get into the playoffs no matter what they do.  It's a tight race and the team has obvious, unfixable flaws outside the net.  If Taylor Hall gets hurt for a long period it will be a big struggle.  And yeah, there's no guarantees that they make it next year, either.  But the ultimate goal isn't to make the playoffs, it's to win the Stanley Cup.  Acquiring a goalie probably puts the Devils farther away from that, however incrementally.

Note that this calculus changes if Schneider has a setback between now and next Tuesday - they maybe should consider it at that point.  But there just aren't a lot of reasonable options out there.  Mrazek was probably it and I don't think he was much of an option.

[Devs3cups]

35 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

 

“How long until Kinkaid blocks Hynes on Twitter?”

Damn, that says a lot. Hynes looked pissed. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFkjpXFm2bg

1:25

[SterioDesign]

15 minutes ago, Devs3cups said:

Damn, that says a lot. Hynes looked pissed. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFkjpXFm2bg

1:25

Well he has to be pissed at himself for putting him in

[SterioDesign]

1 hour ago, Triumph said:

I rarely hesitate to correct someone when they are wrong, and yes, you are wrong. Schneider got hurt in Game 47 of the season, so Game 48 was the first one he missed completely due to injury.  Tonight was Game 60, so that's 13 games, not 21 games.

Now let's ask some basic questions here, making some assumptions with numbers.  Petr Mrazek's career SV% is .912, Kinkaid's is .908.  The difference between the two, over 13 games assuming 30 shots against a game, is that Mrazek gives up 34 goals and Kinkaid gives up 36.  That's rounded up, and 2 goals is worth about 1 standings point difference.

Obviously you are screaming at me now that Kinkaid's gotten worse and his true talent isn't .908.  Well we don't know that, but even if his true talent is the .895 he's putting up now, the difference between Mrazek's theoretical competence and Kinkaid is still 7 goals, or a little over one win in the standings.  

Bad goaltending can definitely sewer a team, but if the Devils get .895 goaltending the rest of the way they should still be able to sneak into the playoffs if they get offense.  And there's just no guarantees that Mrazek would be good, and certainly trading him to Philadelphia makes more sense for Detroit.  And I think if Schneider is healthy down the stretch he can put up the .912 that we would expect out of Mrazek.

Well now that we have the stats portion covered. Would you mind now explaining how a goalie change could potentially change the results for the team going forward through psychology? Cause we obviously wouldn't want to simply look at numbers to make assumptions don't we.

Edited February 21, 2018 by SterioDesign

[Triumph]

4 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

Well now that we have the stats portion covered. Would you mind now explaining how a goalie change could potentially change the results for the team through psychology? Cause we obviously wouldn't want to simply look at numbers to make assumptions don't we.

I have absolutely no idea about that.  I believe bad goaltending can theoretically make teams play worse - they start overcommitting to shot blocks trying to prevent everything - but I also don't think the Devils' goaltending has been THAT awful.  All that is guessing.  What about the pressure a new goalie feels on a new team?  You can just tie yourself in circles with questions like this.

[SterioDesign]

Just now, Triumph said:

I have absolutely no idea about that.  I believe bad goaltending can theoretically make teams play worse - they start overcommitting to shot blocks trying to prevent everything - but I also don't think the Devils' goaltending has been THAT awful.  All that is guessing.  What about the pressure a new goalie feels on a new team?  You can just tie yourself in circles with questions like this.

Well it's certainly a thing. There's a reason if your .920 starter give up 3 goals on 6 shot early... the coach won't be like "well... he's been giving up 3 goals per 40 shots lately... so if we can keep the shots under 40, the other team technically shouldn't score another one and if we get some scoring we're still in this game. Also it wouldn't make sense to put my .902 goalie in net now cause his numbers suggest he'll let in at least 2 goals on 25 more shots so we're better off statistically with our starter"  (obviously the numbers i used won't work but it's just an example) Sports like hockey simply doesn't work like that, it's often about timing and how the team reacts to decisions and situations. So in this case he'll pull the goalie and it might jumpstart the team. Same thing as a fight. Numbers can't explain how a fight can affect the play of the team but we all saw it before, a goalie change or a fight that sparked the team. 

The most important thing in sports is the mindset, Hall is the perfect example of that right now. Hall is not... more skilled this year than he was last year, he just has a way better mindset. Players will play better in front of a goalie that gives them confidence (listen to any interviews with our boys back in 95 talking about how confident Marty made them and how it helped their play). And in other cases they'll play better once a goalie is pulled cause they feel the accountability or because it's a wake-up call. 

Also if a goalie let in 2 goals on 30 shots... statistically it's pretty good but it's gonna affect the team differently if one is scored on the very first shot of the game than if it's scored on the PP at the end of the 2nd period. If you make a mistake and know that it's going to end in the back of the net cause your goalie can't save your ass, you're going to play nervous and make bad decisions. Just as much as it might lit a fire under your ass and get you to play better.

That's not to say that i support that we should of traded for another goalie or wtv. I'm sure the guys love KK in the locker room and all. But deep down i truly don't think they trust him in net at this point, they see what we see. And seeing us going for another goalie or TRYING to do something may potentially bring a positive mindset to the guys depending on how they see the situation. Sometimes you just need a fresh start too... for example getting Mrazek and he gets an amazing first game and a fresh start + a chance of making the playoffs. Then has another great game. Then you're building on something new with no preconception of anything negative bringing you down psychologically as soon as you see a glimpse of a bad play. Like say KK having 2 good games in a row... the boys and the fans would still be like "well he had good games before but then sh!t the bed 4 games in a row bla bla bla".

All of that to say you can certainly tie yourself in circles with questions like this just as much as with numbers cause nothing will predict any guaranteed results. You can win a game 6-5 and your goalie had 16 shots and played like sh!t but you outscored them. Or you can lose a game 1-0 where you're goalie was insane but let in one unstoppable shot but the dude on the other end was perfect so... so knowing that how can we say that... we should be good if our goalie can keep an average of wtv save percentage.

[Devs64]

We'll make the playoffs. Go Devs.

Edited February 21, 2018 by Devs64

[Devs64]

1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

Well it's certainly a thing. There's a reason if your .920 starter give up 3 goals on 6 shot early... the coach won't be like "well... he's been giving up 3 goals per 40 shots lately... so if we can keep the shots under 40, the other team technically shouldn't score another one and if we get some scoring we're still in this game. Also it wouldn't make sense to put my .902 goalie in net now cause his numbers suggest he'll let in at least 2 goals on 25 more shots so we're better off statistically with our starter"  (obviously the numbers i used won't work but it's just an example) Sports like hockey simply doesn't work like that, it's often about timing and how the team reacts to decisions and situations. So in this case he'll pull the goalie and it might jumpstart the team. Same thing as a fight. Numbers can't explain how a fight can affect the play of the team but we all saw it before, a goalie change or a fight that sparked the team. 

The most important thing in sports is the mindset, Hall is the perfect example of that right now. Hall is not... more skilled this year than he was last year, he just has a way better mindset. Players will play better in front of a goalie that gives them confidence (listen to any interviews with our boys back in 95 talking about how confident Marty made them and how it helped their play). And in other cases they'll play better once a goalie is pulled cause they feel the accountability or because it's a wake-up call. 

Also if a goalie let in 2 goals on 30 shots... statistically it's pretty good but it's gonna affect the team differently if one is scored on the very first shot of the game than if it's scored on the PP at the end of the 2nd period. If you make a mistake and know that it's going to end in the back of the net cause your goalie can't save your ass, you're going to play nervous and make bad decisions. Just as much as it might lit a fire under your ass and get you to play better.

That's not to say that i support that we should of traded for another goalie or wtv. I'm sure the guys love KK in the locker room and all. But deep down i truly don't think they trust him in net at this point, they see what we see. And seeing us going for another goalie or TRYING to do something may potentially bring a positive mindset to the guys depending on how they see the situation. Sometimes you just need a fresh start too... for example getting Mrazek and he gets an amazing first game and a fresh start + a chance of making the playoffs. Then has another great game. Then you're building on something new with no preconception of anything negative bringing you down psychologically as soon as you see a glimpse of a bad play. Like say KK having 2 good games in a row... the boys and the fans would still be like "well he had good games before but then sh!t the bed 4 games in a row bla bla bla".

All of that to say you can certainly tie yourself in circles with questions like this just as much as with numbers cause nothing will predict any guaranteed results. You can win a game 6-5 and your goalie had 16 shots and played like sh!t but you outscored them. Or you can lose a game 1-0 where you're goalie was insane but let in one unstoppable shot but the dude on the other end was perfect so... so knowing that how can we say that... we should be good if our goalie can keep an average of wtv save percentage.

Hope you guys don't mind my 2 cents. I truly believe it's mostly little things every player does which creates an overall good or bad impression of a team's game, rather than one guy (goaltender) with a huge responsibility that gives or destroys the team's confidence. There are exceptions of course like Taylor Hall on the Devils. But even a guy like him who commits every night can't provide success single handedly. We just came out of a 4 game winning streak. Was KK better in his 3 out of 4 wins than tonight? Subjective. I personally don't think so. However, Hynes who probably was pissed a bit at Kink during the post game, still picked him over Lack who literally stole for us the toughest of 4 games vs Tampa. I shouldn't say it, but if I was a Devil player I'd feel more comfortable playing in front of Lack. Again, KK played more, but Lack played better...in my opinion. On the other hand, when your offense is inconsistent and defense constantly fails to clear the zone, plays softer than the opposition, turns pucks over and allows 30+ SOG on a regular basis, then your only answer to the problem is Brodeur, Roy or Hasek...even Lundquist. 

I agree, there may even be no obvious answer for us fans, and I also think Hynes made some really poor decisions lately...but what do I know after all?

I watched a few Vegas games trying to understand what makes this team so successful. I didn't see anything special other than Fleury playing like a HOF. They don't squeeze the sticks and they have fun playing. Is it Fleury who makes them so confident? I don't know, but IMO many teams below them are more skilled and come playoffs, I won't be surprised to see them kicked out in the first round. 

Edited February 21, 2018 by Devs64

[Devils Pride 26]

5 hours ago, Triumph said:

There's no need to show the team is all in, because it's not all in.  There's just no sense in spending assets for something that may not even help the team - the way goaltending is, you just don't have many guarantees that what you're getting is better.  Having 3 goalies sucks; the 3rd goalie can't get ice time.  I assume you're just waiving Kinkaid when Schneider comes back, but someone might claim him on waivers - I know this place would celebrate, but that wouldn't be a great outcome either.

The Devils can't guarantee they will get into the playoffs no matter what they do.  It's a tight race and the team has obvious, unfixable flaws outside the net.  If Taylor Hall gets hurt for a long period it will be a big struggle.  And yeah, there's no guarantees that they make it next year, either.  But the ultimate goal isn't to make the playoffs, it's to win the Stanley Cup.  Acquiring a goalie probably puts the Devils farther away from that, however incrementally.

Note that this calculus changes if Schneider has a setback between now and next Tuesday - they maybe should consider it at that point.  But there just aren't a lot of reasonable options out there.  Mrazek was probably it and I don't think he was much of an option.

This team, this fan base needs real progress. What are the odds of a 3rd round pick becoming a 100 game player again, sub 10%? Flip a couple of 3rds for a goalie to make the playoffs. If it doesn’t work, at least they took the blinders off and tried, I’m fine with that. Make the dance. If they get bounced in the first round, so be it. This isn’t 2010 coming off 4 straight under achieving playoff duds. The perception of this franchise NEEDS this.