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Jerzey

Sophomore Slumps

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Assuming there is some truth behind the Sophomore Slump theory, we might be in for another long season next year. I hate to pessimistic after such a great and surprising season but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried about next year. 

We got incredible seasons out of Hischier, Butcher, Bratt, and Coleman. All but Bratt continued their exceptional play pretty much all season. Can they all keep up their pace from this season?

On top of that I’m guessing we’ll be adding a couple of more rookies to the line up next year. McLeod should be NHL ready, Joey Anderson might make the team, Blake Speers is a long shot to make it. Adding in more youth to a pretty young team that potentially could be struggling might make things worse. 

Trades will probably be made, hopefully a UFA signing or two also happen,  but the sophomore slump scares me. 

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The sophomore slump is a myth. Just another made up thing to worry about. Just let the offseason play out.


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I feel like Severson is still in a sophomore slump. 

The good news is we finally have some good young trade bait so I expect some significant offseason moves.

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I feel like Severson is still in a sophomore slump. 
The good news is we finally have some good young trade bait so I expect some significant offseason moves.

In Ray we Trust. Hopefully he’s very active this summer.


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I can't name a single 1OA pick that had a sophomore slump. Literally I can not name a single one. Yakupov, I guess, but he wasn't lights out in his rookie year either. 

Nico's going to get bigger, stronger, more confident. He'll get more mustard on his shot, he'll develop more chemistry with Hall, and he will fvcking tear the NHL up next year. 

If he plays 75+ games, I would bet my house that he surpasses his point total from this year. 

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Yeah I’m not as worried about Nick as I am the rest. I just hope they put him in the gym all summer to work on his strength and conditioning. I think that will play a huge factor in his season next year.

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21 minutes ago, MadDog2020 said:

The sophomore slump is a myth. Just another made up thing to worry about. Just let the offseason play out.
 

Agreed. 

Also this thread is a total jinx and should be immediately deleted. 

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10 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

I can't name a single 1OA pick that had a sophomore slump. Literally I can not name a single one. Yakupov, I guess, but he wasn't lights out in his rookie year either. 

Nico's going to get bigger, stronger, more confident. He'll get more mustard on his shot, he'll develop more chemistry with Hall, and he will fvcking tear the NHL up next year. 

If he plays 75+ games, I would bet my house that he surpasses his point total from this year. 

MacKinnon was pretty brutal in his second season. 

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3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

MacKinnon was pretty brutal in his second season. 

Fair argument, but I remember him being injured. 

Regardless; if Nico follows a similar trajectory to MacK I think we'll be pretty okay :) 

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1 minute ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Fair argument, but I remember him being injured. 

Regardless; if Nico follows a similar trajectory to MacK I think we'll be pretty okay :) 

Only thing I'm kind of worried about with Nico is when he'll be able to anchor a line on his own, i.e. without Hall.  Hopefully the only reason we'll be finding out is because Tavares will be centering a line with Hall.

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26 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

Agreed. 

Also this thread is a total jinx and should be immediately deleted. 

If the playoff thread didn’t jinx us then I’d say sophomore slumps are more real then jinxes.

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Compare rookie seasons to 2nd year seasons and you will find that sophomore slumps are a myth; sophomore seasons crush rookie seasons overall.

If we want to look at the Devils vis a vis sophomore slumps, I do think Nico will not have as many ES points per 60 minutes, that Butcher will not have as many assists, and that Bratt will not shoot 13% again.  But I think it's better than even money that all 3 guys will increase their shots on goal and their shots/60 at ES.

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I'm very interested in how Hynes and Co. will handle Will Butcher's sophomore season. He played in a pretty sheltered role this season, and I'm curious if they go, "Alright kid you did good, now here's something bigger for you to handle," or if they keep him in the status quo and go with what worked for him in his rookie season. I'd like to see the former because I want to know we got a real building block here in Butcher, but again it'l be interesting to see how the coaching staff manages that next season. Obviously personal is going to play a role in that, if we cut ties with Moore (please god), I'd bet Butcher sees tougher 5v5 matchups in 2019.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Vic Rattlehead18 said:

Bratt already hit his sophmore slump in the middle of the season

Again, so many people say this as if he was just a flash in the pan. So this isn't directed at you, so much as those people who think Bratt is suddenly some gigantic question mark:

The longest season Jesper Bratt has ever played professionally is 48 games. He hit a wall after that; his body wasn't ready for the grueling 82 game stretch. 

  • First 48 games played: 12 Goals, 19 Assists, 31 points (.65 Points/Game)
  • Last 26 games played: 1G, 3A, 4 Points (.15 Points/Game)
Edited by Kinkyisth3b3st
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8 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

I'm very interested in how Hynes and Co. will handle Will Butcher's sophomore season. He played in a pretty sheltered role this season, and I'm curious if they go, "Alright kid you did good, now here's something bigger for you to handle," or if they keep him in the status quo and go with what worked for him in his rookie season. I'd like to see the former because I want to know we got a real building block here in Butcher, but again it'l be interesting to see how the coaching staff manages that next season. Obviously personal is going to play a role in that, if we cut ties with Moore (please god), I'd bet Butcher sees tougher 5v5 matchups in 2019.

How do you figure he played a sheltered role?  Guy was in the lineup all the time, and also got substantial PP time.  For a rookie, I don't think they held back on seeing what he was capable of.  Especially considering who his linemates were.  If he were playing next to a stud like Hedman or Doughty or someone of that caliber perhaps you could make the argument that he was coddled a little bit, but I think overall he was tested pretty well and exceeded expectations.  

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18 minutes ago, Kinkyisth3b3st said:

Again, so many people say this as if he was just a flash in the pan. So this isn't directed at you, so much as those people who think Bratt is suddenly some gigantic question mark:

The longest season Jesper Bratt has ever played professionally is 48 games. He hit a wall after that; his body wasn't ready for the grueling 82 game stretch. 

  • First 48 games played: 12 Goals, 19 Assists, 31 points (.65 Points/Game)
  • Last 26 games played: 1G, 3A, 4 Points (.15 Points/Game)

I've mentioned the 48 GP cutoff a bunch of times.  Yeah, too early to consider Bratt a flash in the pan...it will be interesting to see how he holds up next year (and if he can start strong again). 

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Just now, NJDfan1711 said:

How do you figure he played a sheltered role?  Guy was in the lineup all the time, and also got substantial PP time.  For a rookie, I don't think they held back on seeing what he was capable of.  Especially considering who his linemates were.  If he were playing next to a stud like Hedman or Doughty or someone of that caliber perhaps you could make the argument that he was coddled a little bit, but I think overall he was tested pretty well and exceeded expectations.  

Butcher received the most favorable zone starts at 5v5 with 39.88% of his starts coming in the offensive zone and just 25.47% coming in the defensive zone, and in turn was also one of the least used defensemen on the Devils at 5v5. Most his of starts at 5v5 came in the offensive zone, and a large chunk of his ice-time came on the powerplay. I'd like to see the coaching staff give him some more challenging starts and quality of competition to see how he handles an expanded role on our defense, but in terms of how he was used at 5v5 this year he was quite sheltered.

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9 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

I've mentioned the 48 GP cutoff a bunch of times.  Yeah, too early to consider Bratt a flash in the pan...it will be interesting to see how he holds up next year (and if he can start strong again). 

I don't even need to break it down to the first 48 to say Jesper exceeded all expectations this year. Based on his age, draft position, and the fact that nobody even expected him to make the team going into training camp, 13G, 22A is not a bad rookie season. Its so "not bad" that the kid walked in here and was 5th on the team in goals (tied with a bunch of guys, but still), 5th in assists (by himself), and 5th in points. 

Sure, his numbers were front loaded, and getting tired probably had something to do with it. Let's not forget also, he started out the season on a line with Hall and Hischier, then was moved down, and being with those guys likely helped those numbers too. 

But I don't expect a guy who was a 6th round pick to do much better than he did as a 19 year old. 

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13 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I don't even need to break it down to the first 48 to say Jesper exceeded all expectations this year. Based on his age, draft position, and the fact that nobody even expected him to make the team going into training camp, 13G, 22A is not a bad rookie season. Its so "not bad" that the kid walked in here and was 5th on the team in goals (tied with a bunch of guys, but still), 5th in assists (by himself), and 5th in points. 

Sure, his numbers were front loaded, and getting tired probably had something to do with it. Let's not forget also, he started out the season on a line with Hall and Hischier, then was moved down, and being with those guys likely helped those numbers too. 

But I don't expect a guy who was a 6th round pick to do much better than he did as a 19 year old. 

Bratt was moved down out of necessity, once his production dried up...Palms was simply a much better fit once he was able to stay in the lineup and get into a groove. 

Yeah, overall the fact that he was able to play in 72 NHL games in his first season as a 19-year-old was great...I remember when some of the "experts" were sure that both Bratt AND Hischier wouldn't be here past the 9-game cutoff.  I don't really make too big of a deal out of Bratt's dropoff, mostly because the drop in production past 48 games was so pronounced.  I expect he'll be more consistent throughout the season next year. 

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22 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Bratt was moved down out of necessity, once his production dried up...Palms was simply a much better fit once he was able to stay in the lineup and get into a groove. 

Yeah, overall the fact that he was able to play in 72 NHL games in his first season as a 19-year-old was great...I remember when some of the "experts" were sure that both Bratt AND Hischier wouldn't be here past the 9-game cutoff.  I don't really make too big of a deal out of Bratt's dropoff, mostly because the drop in production past 48 games was so pronounced.  I expect he'll be more consistent throughout the season next year. 

Yes, he was. But I imagine that had he stayed on that line, just by accident he probably picks up another 5-7 points. 

I totally forgot how everyone expected Bratt to only be here for the 9 games. I never felt Hischier would be and I don't recall that thought being as prevalent as it was about Bratt. But the guy came out of the chute with like 6 points in 3 games, I guess at that point you keep the guy around and see what he can do. 

 

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It's not really a thing. You have guys riding extreme percentages in their first year that make them seem better than they are and their improvement doesn't catch up to the regression in year 2. Like Tri said, year 2 crushes year 1 in more cases. 

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