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2018 Offseason Thread


LittleBallofHate

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Enjoyed this article where Mike Morreale interviews Ray Shero - among the topics: Cory (his surgery, expectations, etc.), other injuries/surgeries, (hard pass on) Kovy, the 17th (?) pick, Ward & the season opener in Switzerland:  https://www.nhl.com/news/new-jersey-devils-gm-ray-shero-open-to-trading-down-at-draft/c-298909450

Snippet: "There were a lot of positives from last season but there's always going to be change to your roster whether you win the Stanley Cup or not," Shero said. "We obviously want to be in position to sign Taylor Hall a year from now and that contract would kick in (2020-21), the same season Hischier becomes a restricted free agent. So we have to be careful what we're doing beyond two years."

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Enjoyed this article where Mike Morreale interviews Ray Shero - among the topics: Cory (his surgery, expectations, etc.), other injuries/surgeries, (hard pass on) Kovy, the 17th (?) pick, Ward & the season opener in Switzerland:  https://www.nhl.com/news/new-jersey-devils-gm-ray-shero-open-to-trading-down-at-draft/c-298909450

Snippet: "There were a lot of positives from last season but there's always going to be change to your roster whether you win the Stanley Cup or not," Shero said. "We obviously want to be in position to sign Taylor Hall a year from now and that contract would kick in (2020-21), the same season Hischier becomes a restricted free agent. So we have to be careful what we're doing beyond two years."

Good read, thanks for posting it.

 

 

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kind of sounds like Shero isn't looking to make an expensive splash in FA this year, a lot of speculation about Carlson and JT with us having the space. Wonder if Shero is just keeping his deal to himself by making statements kind of leading us to believe he won't be in on either.

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19 minutes ago, 2ELIAS6 said:

kind of sounds like Shero isn't looking to make an expensive splash in FA this year, a lot of speculation about Carlson and JT with us having the space. Wonder if Shero is just keeping his deal to himself by making statements kind of leading us to believe he won't be in on either.

I can't think of any benefit of coming out and saying that he's going to be super aggressive in courting JT or Carlsson.   While we would all like to see continued improvement, coming off the season we just had, there's really no pressure on Shero to promise the fans significant improvements will be coming, especially via free agency.     

My hope is that Shero is aggressive in going after one of the superstar types like JT or E Karlsson should he become available or otherwise just stay the course with the group he has.  I'm not overly comfortable with signing Carlsson long term given that this season seems to be the outlier, and I certainly don't want Shero eating up our cap space with long term commitments to the JVRs of the world.         

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have to also wonder if shero does go in deep for JT (not that I want to over spend to get him) but I would have to imagine that hall gets an equivalent contract and having two massive deals could end up jamming us later on. I do not want to give JT 12+Million dollars but I'm sure he will get something in that range.

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Hockey is pretty terrible at valuing stars. You could argue they're underpaid when you consider what the NBA and MLB gives their stars. I'm not talking raw dollars. For example, McDavid should be making 15+, Crosby is worth at least 13, Doughty and Karlsson are probably worth 13/14 on the open market. 

My point? I give JT 12 million without thinking twice. 

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8 minutes ago, 2ELIAS6 said:

have to also wonder if shero does go in deep for JT (not that I want to over spend to get him) but I would have to imagine that hall gets an equivalent contract and having two massive deals could end up jamming us later on. I do not want to give JT 12+Million dollars but I'm sure he will get something in that range.

Given that the salary cap is jumping up, we're going to probably have to go up into that 11.5 or 12 range to land JT.   I would still do it.  We would be landing a top 5 center in his prime without giving up any assets other than cap space.  If Shero makes Hall a fair offer when the time comes, I doubt he holds JT's UFA salary against him.  I'm sure Hall's biggest concern is being that much closer to a cup contender.       

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43 minutes ago, Derlique said:

Hockey is pretty terrible at valuing stars. You could argue they're underpaid when you consider what the NBA and MLB gives their stars. I'm not talking raw dollars. For example, McDavid should be making 15+, Crosby is worth at least 13, Doughty and Karlsson are probably worth 13/14 on the open market. 

My point? I give JT 12 million without thinking twice. 

MLB doesn't have a hard salary cap, and I believe the NBA doesn't either, so it's not a great comparison.  If you're a superstar in the NHL that's interested in winning a Cup, you'll take less in salary, or, in the past, you'd have signed up for a front loaded long term deal.  It's not that complicated.

As for what Hall would demand if Tavares signs a big deal here, I don't see why Shero wouldn't have discussed that issue with Hall already if he wants to make a big play for Tavares.  Hall could always change his mind of course, but I would think that he would ultimately try to be as accommodating as possible assuming the relationship doesn't go south for whatever reason.

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31 minutes ago, Daniel said:

MLB doesn't have a hard salary cap, and I believe the NBA doesn't either, so it's not a great comparison.  If you're a superstar in the NHL that's interested in winning a Cup, you'll take less in salary, or, in the past, you'd have signed up for a front loaded long term deal.  It's not that complicated.

As for what Hall would demand if Tavares signs a big deal here, I don't see why Shero wouldn't have discussed that issue with Hall already if he wants to make a big play for Tavares.  Hall could always change his mind of course, but I would think that he would ultimately try to be as accommodating as possible assuming the relationship doesn't go south for whatever reason.

The NHL has a player maximum salary - one player has signed such a contract.  The NBA has a player maximum salary that is hit constantly every off-season.

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On 6/2/2018 at 1:33 PM, MadDog2020 said:

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/ask-me-anything-predicting-john-carlson-s-landing-spot The Devils are an interesting fit. Financially, they’re set up better than any other team in the league to be major players in free agency. They’re my favorite landing spot for John Tavares and theoretically have room for Carlson should they want to go that route. But I spoke at length with GM Ray Shero about the philosophy of free agency just two weeks ago, and some of his musings made me wonder if he really wants to get aggressive after all. He said he doesn’t see free agency as the best way to build a team. More from Shero:

“Just speaking for myself, there’s a certain price you’ll pay. The cap could go up, and that could be very beneficial for some teams. It’s been a great thing for teams to remain competitive and be competitive, but at the same time, just because the cap goes up doesn’t mean everybody’s revenue has gone up and they’re going to spend that. Historically, is one player going to make that difference? I can think of one off the top of my head, one free agent signing that has really paid off (in the cap era), and that’s Zdeno Chara. How many others can you name?”

That sounds like a skeptic, not someone preparing to pursue the big fish. Unless, of course, Shero is playing coy and trying to throw us off the trail. He’s a smart man, so you never know.



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Hossa was an excellent UFA signing and you could argue was a difference maker. Yes, the Hawks had other big time talent but Hossa was a great signing and without him they don't win 3 cups. they very likely win one, but not 3.

The jury is still out, but I think the Suter signing will be a good one (even though they didn't win a cup).

The other thing - to be fair, is that guys like Tavares almost never make it to UFA so to say the signings haven't worked out isn't really fair. There are few opportunities for real difference makers to be had in UFA.

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18 minutes ago, Triumph said:

The NHL has a player maximum salary - one player has signed such a contract.  The NBA has a player maximum salary that is hit constantly every off-season.

I imagine that an NBA player signing the maximum has far less consequences for what a team can pay the rest of its players as opposed to the NHL. 

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1 hour ago, Triumph said:

You have to assume that if you sign Tavares for $X, you have to offer Hall that contract + a year.  If Hall chooses to take less that's on him, but I just don't see a way around this.

that is probably true but the assuming the devils can spend to the cap, this is doable and even doable with nico getting $8MM/year on contract 2 (he's not matthews, eichel or mcdavid so he shouldn't expect that number).

the question is what is JT's number? I think I would go to $10.5.

But in 20-21, they'll have one more year of palm and zajac and just severson and cory left on contracts.

sure nico will be getting money and so will hall but there will be plenty of room

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8 minutes ago, Daniel said:

I imagine that an NBA player signing the maximum has far less consequences for what a team can pay the rest of its players as opposed to the NHL. 

You'd be incorrect.  Now granted, NBA rosters are 12 men and 3 of them don't really matter a whole lot, but it's pretty easy to argue that there's 5 guys on NHL rosters who don't matter a whole lot too.  But maximum salaries are generally around 30% of the cap, leaving you 70% for 11 other players.  In the NHL, a maximum salary (which by the way no one's even close to - a max salary is ~$15M) leaves you 80% for 20-22 other players.

The thing about the NBA is that the best players are so valuable that they should be getting paid way more than the maximum.  In the NHL, I can't make that argument, but I can argue that superstars are way underpaid.

 

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6 minutes ago, Triumph said:

You'd be incorrect.  Now granted, NBA rosters are 12 men and 3 of them don't really matter a whole lot, but it's pretty easy to argue that there's 5 guys on NHL rosters who don't matter a whole lot too.  But maximum salaries are generally around 30% of the cap, leaving you 70% for 11 other players.  In the NHL, a maximum salary (which by the way no one's even close to - a max salary is ~$15M) leaves you 80% for 20-22 other players.

The thing about the NBA is that the best players are so valuable that they should be getting paid way more than the maximum.  In the NHL, I can't make that argument, but I can argue that superstars are way underpaid.

 

It seems that NBA teams can have at least two players that make the maximum, one of whom is the Warriors.  Last night, they had four players who got close to seventy percent of the playing time in a blowout.  That's the equivalent of your top two forward lines getting 35 minutes  of ice time,  and we're not even getting into your defensemen, pretty much none of whom on a good team will play less than 15 minutes, or your two goalies for that matter.  The NBA and NHL are two completely different animals.

Tavares is free to demand the maximum and someone might give it to him, but I doubt it.  It's just a fact though that his chances of winning a Cup will be greatly diminished as compared to him taking $4 million less a year, especially if it's a case where the team he's signing with has someone else who will be up for a new contract soon and will demand the same thing.

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I hate the entire concept of salary caps. If it makes some teams unable to compete, so be it. But if I have the top revenue team in the league and I have to pay my team what that the lowest revenue in the team can afford, that ain't right. 

Of course, it does give the owner the chance to say "sorry pal, we're at the cap limit" and stuff the rest of the profits under his mattress. 

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27 minutes ago, sundstrom said:

that is probably true but the assuming the devils can spend to the cap, this is doable and even doable with nico getting $8MM/year on contract 2 (he's not matthews, eichel or mcdavid so he shouldn't expect that number).

the question is what is JT's number? I think I would go to $10.5.

But in 20-21, they'll have one more year of palm and zajac and just severson and cory left on contracts.

sure nico will be getting money and so will hall but there will be plenty of room

The Devils can afford two 12 million dollar contracts to Hall and Tavares. Also, I'm not sure you have to offer them the same money. Hall will get the extra year and will be a year older when he hits UFA. Assume Nico gets 6 million per, Bratt 3, Zacha 3, etc. I don't think NJ will be in any medium-long term trouble. Especially if they get a compliance buyout.

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2 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I hate the entire concept of salary caps. If it makes some teams unable to compete, so be it. But if I have the top revenue team in the league and I have to pay my team what that the lowest revenue in the team can afford, that ain't right. 

Of course, it does give the owner the chance to say "sorry pal, we're at the cap limit" and stuff the rest of the profits under his mattress. 

I don't agree with your point at all. Teams like the Rangers, Leafs, Habs and Flyers will always spend near the cap, while the Coyotes, Panthers and Hurricanes will always be near the floor. It's not like all things are equal because of revenue sharing.

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8 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I hate the entire concept of salary caps. If it makes some teams unable to compete, so be it. But if I have the top revenue team in the league and I have to pay my team what that the lowest revenue in the team can afford, that ain't right. 

Of course, it does give the owner the chance to say "sorry pal, we're at the cap limit" and stuff the rest of the profits under his mattress. 

I feel the complete opposite.   It's not so much the bottom feeders that can't compete as opposed to putting a cap on the teams like the Rangers and Leafs who would just suck up every top free agent if there wasn't a limit.  Without a cap, Hall would pretty much be a goner next year IMO.   

Ironically, I think the cap has actually made the previously high spenders more appealing in some ways as well.   I think most Rangers fans probably enjoyed the homegrown group of Lundqvist, Staal, Callahan, etc more than the teams in the late 90's full of overpaid past their prime stars.   I don't remember Leafs fans ever being as pumped about their team as they are with this one built through the draft.     

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3 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

I hate the entire concept of salary caps. If it makes some teams unable to compete, so be it. But if I have the top revenue team in the league and I have to pay my team what that the lowest revenue in the team can afford, that ain't right. 

Of course, it does give the owner the chance to say "sorry pal, we're at the cap limit" and stuff the rest of the profits under his mattress. 

Even if there's not the type of salary cap you're thinking of, there has always been one in that there is an amateur draft, more recently a rookie wage scale and there is a certain amount of time before players can hit free agency, usually when they're about to go past their prime. 

From all accounts though, if you want a North American pro ice hockey league that can sustain 31 and soon 32 teams, you need a hard salary cap.

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4 hours ago, Lateralous said:

Given that the salary cap is jumping up, we're going to probably have to go up into that 11.5 or 12 range to land JT.   I would still do it.  We would be landing a top 5 center in his prime without giving up any assets other than cap space.  If Shero makes Hall a fair offer when the time comes, I doubt he holds JT's UFA salary against him.  I'm sure Hall's biggest concern is being that much closer to a cup contender.       

What's the one player maximum salary this year and/or next year?  I thought it was still like 9 or 10M.  Didn't Stamkos just re-up with the Bolts for like 8 yrs/8M or something like that?  I know he took a slight discount to stay with them, but I didn't think it was far off from the maximum.  I had no idea the max was already up into the 11/12s or beyond.  Damn.

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I thought the max contract was something like 20% of the cap but I’m only going off of my recollection of the Niedermayer offer over a decade ago.  That being said, the max is definitely much higher than just 9 or 10.  McDavid reportedly agreed to a deal higher than what he eventually signed and only backed off because he was worried he was taking too much for himself.   Toews and Kane signed at 10.5 two off seasons ago 

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I think 15 or 16 would be crazy but using McDavid's new deal at 12.5 as sort of a cap for an offer to Tavares wouldn't be out of line IMO.  I think it's the bloated contracts to mid level guys like Zajac and Greene that eventually kill you, not paying for the top end players.     

It was a little bit of a different situation back then given that the cap was bound to rise coming out of a year long strike but in the years afterwards, I never found myself saying "good thing Niedermayer didn't take our offer and isn't eating up 20% of our cap space" as Rafalski was getting eaten alive.     

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