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CommonDreads

2019 NHL Draft Thread

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while im glad we picked someone that came close to do something with Boucher.... with hindsight 20/20 im still wondering why you pick him over Gaudreau if you're going to swing for the fences like that...

They were playing the same league during their draft year... Boucher had 20 pts in 24 gp... 5'10...  Gaudreau had 72 pts in 60 gp... 5'9 and his team won the championship with him being the top player

i know Gaudreau is really small and skills which is the opposite of what Conte was looking for but damn... 

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19 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

while im glad we picked someone that came close to do something with Boucher.... with hindsight 20/20 im still wondering why you pick him over Gaudreau if you're going to swing for the fences like that...

They were playing the same league during their draft year... Boucher had 20 pts in 24 gp... 5'10...  Gaudreau had 72 pts in 60 gp... 5'9 and his team won the championship with him being the top player

i know Gaudreau is really small and skills which is the opposite of what Conte was looking for but damn... 

Conte was so hopelessly out of touch from the mid-2000s until he was finally let go in 2015, I'll never forget yelling at my screen in a fit of rage in 2014 when they were passing on Brayden Point to take guys like Jacobs and Connor mother fvcking Chatham.

Their drafting has gotten much better under Castron and Shero, 2017 seems like it could be a major success and a lot of the players we drafted that year have me excited (Nico obv, Boqvist, Walsh, Talvitie, Zetterlund, Studenic, Popugaev is still interesting), and 2016 seems to have some major late round hits (Bratt, Davies, Maltsev, Anderson, Gignac). I'm hopeful for our future with the drafts we've had, but Conte really set this team back a long way with inexcusable drafting record he had for about a decade.

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Boucher was a 4th-rounder too...some people just got way too excited when he was putting up some decent numbers in the AHL to start off his pro career (did have a nice year in the OHL too).  In his stints with the Devils, he never showed enough to really hope for much.  As of now, he's a productive AHLer, but won't ever be more.

Boucher should basically be the poster boy for why skating should be one of the biggest factors when you're drafting. Boucher could always shoot and obviously had good offensive instincts, but his speed and skating wasn't good enough to adjust to the pace of the NHL and his strength on the puck wasn't enough to make up for it. Take the Gaudreau vs Boucher example Sterio just posted, you have two undersized players: one with high-end shooting ability but weak feet, and another with high-end skill with excellent skating ability, it shouldn't be a surprise that the guy that could skate is the one that found success in the NHL while the other topped out as a top line AHLer. That's also one of the reasons why Castron's drafts have been so much better so far, we're drafting guys that can skate.

Edited by CommonDreads
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2 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

Conte was so hopelessly out of touch from the mid-2000s until he was finally let go in 2015, I'll never forget yelling at my screen in a fit of rage in 2014 when they were passing on Brayden Point to take guys like Jacobs and Connor mother fvcking Chatham.

Their drafting has gotten much better under Castron and Shero, 2017 seems like it could be a major success and a lot of the players we drafted that year have me excited (Nico obv, Boqvist, Walsh, Talvitie, Zetterlund, Studenic, Popugaev is still interesting), and 2016 seems to have some major late round hits (Bratt, Davies, Maltsev, Anderson, Gignac). I'm hopeful for our future with the drafts we've had, but Conte really set this team back a long way with inexcusable drafting record he had for about a decade.

Bad drafting was a discussion in another thread, but this seems like the place to put this. The Athletic has a pretty good write up on teams drafting success over the last 16 years. Devil's are 2nd to last....https://theathletic.com/875265/2019/03/20/analyzing-16-years-of-nhl-draft-data-to-see-which-teams-have-done-it-the-best-and-worst/

Link is behind the paywall but here is the main chart listing drafted points. Now my problem with this is that it discounts defenders and doesn't include goalies at all since it is based on pts. The goalie thing I have less of a problem with because it seems like goalies come from everywhere (high to low in the draft, FA, college) more than other positions. 

 

Screen-Shot-2019-03-19-at-1.42.16-PM.png

 

 

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On 3/21/2019 at 12:28 PM, Steadevils said:

Bad drafting was a discussion in another thread, but this seems like the place to put this. The Athletic has a pretty good write up on teams drafting success over the last 16 years. Devil's are 2nd to last....https://theathletic.com/875265/2019/03/20/analyzing-16-years-of-nhl-draft-data-to-see-which-teams-have-done-it-the-best-and-worst/

Link is behind the paywall but here is the main chart listing drafted points. Now my problem with this is that it discounts defenders and doesn't include goalies at all since it is based on pts. The goalie thing I have less of a problem with because it seems like goalies come from everywhere (high to low in the draft, FA, college) more than other positions. 

 

Screen-Shot-2019-03-19-at-1.42.16-PM.png

 

 

To be fair with that list - the top of the charts were teams that were awful for many years that consistently drafted in the top 5 and got superstars out of those (Boston being the exception - they were never truly bad).

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1 hour ago, sundstrom said:

To be fair with that list - the top of the charts were teams that were awful for many years that consistently drafted in the top 5 and got superstars out of those (Boston being the exception - they were never truly bad).

its not as much about why the top teams are there but more about where we are, and we know why

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On 3/19/2019 at 6:30 PM, SterioDesign said:

why's that? Berfors, Tedenby, Urbom, Boucher, Josefson and all those guys became exactly the star players we all thought they'd become

Quenneville and Zacha are also destined to be a HOF'ers.

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3 minutes ago, titans04 said:

Quenneville and Zacha are also destined to be a HOF'ers.

I just wish Q would be traded. He'll always be the embodiment of Lou's stubbornness to me. And the state of the team is already a good enough reminder of that i dont need anything extra

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4 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

I just wish Q would be traded. He'll always be the embodiment of Lou's stubbornness to me. And the state of the team is already a good enough reminder of that i dont need anything extra

traded? he's worth nothing - you're talking an AHL trade like when we traded kapla for murray and I'm not even sure anyone wants him on their AHL team.

i'm not even sure they qualify him as an RFA. in fact, i'd be shocked if they did. he's worth a 2-way deal. maybe. nobody is giving him a 1 way NHL deal.

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10 hours ago, sundstrom said:

traded? he's worth nothing - you're talking an AHL trade like when we traded kapla for murray and I'm not even sure anyone wants him on their AHL team.

i'm not even sure they qualify him as an RFA. in fact, i'd be shocked if they did. he's worth a 2-way deal. maybe. nobody is giving him a 1 way NHL deal.

i just meant i'd rather not have him in the organization anymore somehow

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20 hours ago, sundstrom said:

traded? he's worth nothing - you're talking an AHL trade like when we traded kapla for murray and I'm not even sure anyone wants him on their AHL team.

i'm not even sure they qualify him as an RFA. in fact, i'd be shocked if they did. he's worth a 2-way deal. maybe. nobody is giving him a 1 way NHL deal.

 

10 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

i just meant i'd rather not have him in the organization anymore somehow

I would also take literally anything in return for him. 

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9 minutes ago, mfitz804 said:

 

I would also take literally anything in return for him. 

5th rd pick 2035!

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2 hours ago, Nicomo said:

5th rd pick 2035!

Perfect, draft pick that will be used on a kid who is in diapers today. 

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Finally having caught up with these draft prospects, I feel pretty good about the players the Devils will be in position to draft. I think both Hughes and Kakko seem like excellent prospects, but lately I have been leaning toward Kakko as the best player in this class. I know that every draft analyst has Hughes going first overall, but I see a truly elite player in Kakko. I also think Hughes will end up as a point per game player at the very least, so it is very close for me between the top two.

Outside of them, there are 3 players that are most interesting to me: Byram, Podkolzin, and Zegras. All three of these players are realistic options for the Devils if they stay put in the draft order or even slide back a bit. You could make an argument for two of them to be top 3 players in this draft. As great as it would be to win the draft lottery, this isn't the worst year to miss out on it either.

I see a future #1 D in Byram. He is having an excellent season, putting up points at a similar rate as Ty Smith this year. Not only is he great defensively, his transition game is so strong and quick that it really throws the other team off. Excellent passer, and great in the offensive zone. There really aren't any apparent weaknesses to his game at this point. Outside of Dahlin and Quinn Hughes, I see Byram as just as good of a defensive prospect as anyone since Seth Jones. Building the future of our D group around Smith and Byram would be huge for this franchise.

Podkolzin is exactly the type of player this team needs. He plays a typical power forward style, and has a great shot. You'll see him score goals by outworking opponents as he drives to the net, sniping from the circles, or cutting to the slot Ovechkin-style. He still seems a bit raw, but he's got great puck control and vision. He's one of those players who seems like he can do it all himself, but still has great playmaking abilities. This could be seen as a riskier pick for a few reasons, but the talent is undeniable.

As a pass first center, Zegras does not address a team need quite as much as some of the others, but he might be the best player available when the Devils draft. I think this is the most underrated player in the top 10 rankings, as he is living in Hughes's shadow on team USA. He could be a great 2nd line center under Nico for years to come. Similar to someone like Nick Backstrom, he'll thrive most with a good shooter on his wing. His excellent vision and passing skills should translate well at the NHL level. I would take Zegras over some of the other players who are ranked near him, including Cozens, Turcotte, and Dach. And I could see those guys and some others going earlier based on many of the rankings.

Looking at the talent in this group, it seems to me that there's a drop off after 2 (Hughes, Kakko) and 4 (Podkolzin, Byram), then a big group of forwards that would all be good additions, with Zegras being my favorite of the bunch.

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On 3/21/2019 at 9:46 AM, CommonDreads said:

Boucher should basically be the poster boy for why skating should be one of the biggest factors when you're drafting. Boucher could always shoot and obviously had good offensive instincts, but his speed and skating wasn't good enough to adjust to the pace of the NHL and his strength on the puck wasn't enough to make up for it. Take the Gaudreau vs Boucher example Sterio just posted, you have two undersized players: one with high-end shooting ability but weak feet, and another with high-end skill with excellent skating ability, it shouldn't be a surprise that the guy that could skate is the one that found success in the NHL while the other topped out as a top line AHLer. That's also one of the reasons why Castron's drafts have been so much better so far, we're drafting guys that can skate.

I think Boucher is hurt by his size more than his skating.. imo, his forward skating is fine.. he just has a handicap with a small defensive footprint.. kid has some nifty escape move with the puck.. he's a good "on puck" defender but is weak in the corners and in front of the net..

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Good skating is pretty much requisite for anyone that's going to break into the league. I don't attribute drafting better skaters to some deep insight from the current scouting department, just to them drafting players that fit the mold of the current NHL. Conte and Lou were never going to budge on their model here. 

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On 3/21/2019 at 9:37 AM, CommonDreads said:

Conte was so hopelessly out of touch from the mid-2000s until he was finally let go in 2015, I'll never forget yelling at my screen in a fit of rage in 2014 when they were passing on Brayden Point to take guys like Jacobs and Connor mother fvcking Chatham.

Their drafting has gotten much better under Castron and Shero, 2017 seems like it could be a major success and a lot of the players we drafted that year have me excited (Nico obv, Boqvist, Walsh, Talvitie, Zetterlund, Studenic, Popugaev is still interesting), and 2016 seems to have some major late round hits (Bratt, Davies, Maltsev, Anderson, Gignac). I'm hopeful for our future with the drafts we've had, but Conte really set this team back a long way with inexcusable drafting record he had for about a decade.

Conte & Lou destroyed the talent base of this team with all those idiotic drafts but hopefully things can recover soon or in due time.

I love it though when the Lou apologists use the excuse of  "we were always picking past 20 in the first round"  to justify the asinine selections. 

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On 3/23/2019 at 6:09 PM, nessus said:

Finally having caught up with these draft prospects, I feel pretty good about the players the Devils will be in position to draft. I think both Hughes and Kakko seem like excellent prospects, but lately I have been leaning toward Kakko as the best player in this class. I know that every draft analyst has Hughes going first overall, but I see a truly elite player in Kakko. I also think Hughes will end up as a point per game player at the very least, so it is very close for me between the top two.

Outside of them, there are 3 players that are most interesting to me: Byram, Podkolzin, and Zegras. All three of these players are realistic options for the Devils if they stay put in the draft order or even slide back a bit. You could make an argument for two of them to be top 3 players in this draft. As great as it would be to win the draft lottery, this isn't the worst year to miss out on it either.

I see a future #1 D in Byram. He is having an excellent season, putting up points at a similar rate as Ty Smith this year. Not only is he great defensively, his transition game is so strong and quick that it really throws the other team off. Excellent passer, and great in the offensive zone. There really aren't any apparent weaknesses to his game at this point. Outside of Dahlin and Quinn Hughes, I see Byram as just as good of a defensive prospect as anyone since Seth Jones. Building the future of our D group around Smith and Byram would be huge for this franchise.

Podkolzin is exactly the type of player this team needs. He plays a typical power forward style, and has a great shot. You'll see him score goals by outworking opponents as he drives to the net, sniping from the circles, or cutting to the slot Ovechkin-style. He still seems a bit raw, but he's got great puck control and vision. He's one of those players who seems like he can do it all himself, but still has great playmaking abilities. This could be seen as a riskier pick for a few reasons, but the talent is undeniable.

As a pass first center, Zegras does not address a team need quite as much as some of the others, but he might be the best player available when the Devils draft. I think this is the most underrated player in the top 10 rankings, as he is living in Hughes's shadow on team USA. He could be a great 2nd line center under Nico for years to come. Similar to someone like Nick Backstrom, he'll thrive most with a good shooter on his wing. His excellent vision and passing skills should translate well at the NHL level. I would take Zegras over some of the other players who are ranked near him, including Cozens, Turcotte, and Dach. And I could see those guys and some others going earlier based on many of the rankings.

Looking at the talent in this group, it seems to me that there's a drop off after 2 (Hughes, Kakko) and 4 (Podkolzin, Byram), then a big group of forwards that would all be good additions, with Zegras being my favorite of the bunch.

Todd Cordell with a little write up on the WHL bunch of forwards in Cozens, Dach and Krebs: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=98588

Excited to be locked in to a spot on 4/9, so that this discussion won't have to start off with % math on where we might pick. I think I am pretty set on 1. Hughes, 2. Kakko, 3. Podkolzin. But could really be talked in to lots of players if we end up in the 4-6 spot at this point. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Steadevils said:

Todd Cordell with a little write up on the WHL bunch of forwards in Cozens, Dach and Krebs: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=98588

Excited to be locked in to a spot on 4/9, so that this discussion won't have to start off with % math on where we might pick. I think I am pretty set on 1. Hughes, 2. Kakko, 3. Podkolzin. But could really be talked in to lots of players if we end up in the 4-6 spot at this point. 

 

 

I've been shuffling 4-7 around in my head so much lately, my personal preference changes almost every day. I'm really hoping we get one of the top 3 so that I don't have to do mental gymnastics with myself for two and a half months.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

I've been shuffling 4-7 around in my head so much lately, my personal preference changes almost every day. I'm really hoping we get one of the top 3 so that I don't have to do mental gymnastics with myself for two and a half months.

Agreed. My mind-set is if we fall out of the top 3 I would be happy drafting Byram in any of the spots from 4-6. Cozens and Dach scare me a bit just because they haven't really put up huge goal numbers in the WHL. Hell Byram is right with them in goals as a defender...

 

The other thing that kind of scares me is all of the USDP players in the top 15...I can't recall having seen that before. Is this just the best USDP ever or is there something funky going on with the schedule they played that has inflated their stats...I don't know enough to have the answer it just seems odd to see that many USDP players ranked this high. 

Edited by Steadevils

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On 3/24/2019 at 2:04 AM, Satans Hockey said:

Of course this comes form Brooksie, a bidding war for 18 yr. olds. 

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On 3/24/2019 at 2:04 AM, Satans Hockey said:

Shocker that a team in a very sexy big market with limitless money would want to do away with the draft and have teams bidding on prospects.

This would, more or less, ruin the NHL for me.  Not the sport, but rooting for a specific team.  I have no interest in the NHL becoming the NBA where it's two or three elite teams a year and then.. everyone else.

I mean we're already almost getting there with teams in states without state income tax abusing the cap system.

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Is the Rags being a top destination for free agents not enough of an advantage for Brooks? 

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5 hours ago, Steadevils said:

Agreed. My mind-set is if we fall out of the top 3 I would be happy drafting Byram in any of the spots from 4-6. Cozens and Dach scare me a bit just because they haven't really put up huge goal numbers in the WHL. Hell Byram is right with them in goals as a defender...

 

The other thing that kind of scares me is all of the USDP players in the top 15...I can't recall having seen that before. Is this just the best USDP ever or is there something funky going on with the schedule they played that has inflated their stats...I don't know enough to have the answer it just seems odd to see that many USDP players ranked this high. 

This likely is the best U18 USA team of all-time, I can't recall any other year that has this many legitimate top 15 and 1st round talents on just one team, so it is somewhat unprecedented. I would be surprised if less than four of those kids go in the Top 10. Alex Turcotte has been getting a lot of love lately for 3rd or 4th overall, but I still don't think I can put him over Cozens, Byram, Dach, or Zegras in my mind.

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