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CommonDreads

2019 NHL Draft Thread

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On 3/24/2019 at 2:04 AM, Satans Hockey said:

Maybe you could change it to the NBA system where the worst three teams have the same odds, and perhaps add something where the same team can't have the first pick or maybe pick within the top 3 within a certain period of years.  Something that could make it really interesting is that a team that's picking first in a particular year can intentionally let the clock run out on making the first pick to avoid the consequences of the rule that you can't pick there within the next 2 or 3 years. 

Otherwise I hate these ideas that always pop up about fundamentally altering how the draft works.  It's funny how the usual suspects weren't talkinga about it when the Leafs got Matthews.

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3 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

This likely is the best U18 USA team of all-time, I can't recall any other year that has this many legitimate top 15 and 1st round talents on just one team, so it is somewhat unprecedented. I would be surprised if less than four of those kids go in the Top 10. Alex Turcotte has been getting a lot of love lately for 3rd or 4th overall, but I still don't think I can put him over Cozens, Byram, Dach, or Zegras in my mind.

Turcotte is definitely rising fast on these mock drafts. I mean he does have pretty impressive PPG rates (1.77 vs Hughes 2.10). 1.77 PPG this season is one of the best ever for the USDP it looks like according to this: https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/usdp/stats/all-time-season?sort=ppg

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Is there much truth to the reports of Podkolzin not wanting to play in the NHL? He seems like the best forward after the top 2, and could be a good target for the Devils if he is likely to come over to North America soon.

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4 minutes ago, nessus said:

Is there much truth to the reports of Podkolzin not wanting to play in the NHL? He seems like the best forward after the top 2, and could be a good target for the Devils if he is likely to come over to North America soon.

If we pick 3rd, no way am I picking that kid with those rumors. Give me Byram at 3 all day if we pick there. 

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22 minutes ago, nessus said:

Is there much truth to the reports of Podkolzin not wanting to play in the NHL? He seems like the best forward after the top 2, and could be a good target for the Devils if he is likely to come over to North America soon.

Teams will know going into the draft.  If that’s the message he gives, he could very well fall out of the top ten.

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34 minutes ago, nessus said:

Is there much truth to the reports of Podkolzin not wanting to play in the NHL? He seems like the best forward after the top 2, and could be a good target for the Devils if he is likely to come over to North America soon.

He doesn't want to come over until he's ready to play in the NHL, so it's more so he doesn't have much of a desire to play in the CHL or AHL. In truth, I think he could use another year in the KHL before he's ready to slot into an NHL top six, but I think he's worth the wait. I'm not sure anyone after Hughes or Kakko are ready for the NHL in 2019-20, so I don't really have any reservations taking him 3rd. In my opinion, he's definitely the best player in the draft behind the big two, even if you need to wait a year or two, I think you're getting a legitimate superstar with him.

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47 minutes ago, Steadevils said:

Turcotte is definitely rising fast on these mock drafts. I mean he does have pretty impressive PPG rates (1.77 vs Hughes 2.10). 1.77 PPG this season is one of the best ever for the USDP it looks like according to this: https://www.eliteprospects.com/league/usdp/stats/all-time-season?sort=ppg

That's the thing, his production has been excellent this year but when I watch him play he just doesn't stand out as much as the other four guys I mentioned do, and those other four have impressive production as well. Cozens and Dach each lead their teams in scoring rate, Zegras is second in scoring only behind Hughes on the US team, and Byram's production as a 17-year-old in the WHL is excellent as well, so the production angle doesn't mean as much to me. This is a very good 1st round this year though, I have a hard time widdling down my list.

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11 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

He doesn't want to come over until he's ready to play in the NHL, so it's more so he doesn't have much of a desire to play in the CHL or AHL. In truth, I think he could use another year in the KHL before he's ready to slot into an NHL top six, but I think he's worth the wait. I'm not sure anyone after Hughes or Kakko are ready for the NHL in 2019-20, so I don't really have any reservations taking him 3rd. In my opinion, he's definitely the best player in the draft behind the big two, even if you need to wait a year or two, I think you're getting a legitimate superstar with him.

I guess you just have to see him play, cause I don’t see what’s there that says he’s a future superstar.  He has barely cracked the KHL and doesn’t really seem to be crushing the lower level leagues there.  Didn’t even seem like he dominated at the World Juniors.  

Dunno, sounds like a case of people trying to get the next Kucharov-type unicorn.

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13 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

That's the thing, his production has been excellent this year but when I watch him play he just doesn't stand out as much as the other four guys I mentioned do, and those other four have impressive production as well. Cozens and Dach each lead their teams in scoring rate, Zegras is second in scoring only behind Hughes on the US team, and Byram's production as a 17-year-old in the WHL is excellent as well, so the production angle doesn't mean as much to me. This is a very good 1st round this year though, I have a hard time widdling down my list.

I get a similar feeling about Turcotte. I slightly prefer Zegras, but Turcotte is just all over the ice. You rarely see those plays that really blow you away, and things like that make me wonder about how it'll translate to the NHL level. But his compete level is really impressive, and he's definitely got some nice tools.

3 minutes ago, Daniel said:

I guess you just have to see him play, cause I don’t see what’s there that says he’s a future superstar.  He has barely cracked the KHL and doesn’t really seem to be crushing the lower level leagues there.  Didn’t even seem like he dominated at the World Juniors.  

Dunno, sounds like a case of people trying to get the next Kucharov-type unicorn.

This is a good point, but if you watch him play, you see what a great player he can be. Great shot, amazing hands, really powerful skater, and he's pretty physical. I think he would be a great fit to play alongside Nico. He can score a lot of goals.

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1 hour ago, nessus said:

Is there much truth to the reports of Podkolzin not wanting to play in the NHL? He seems like the best forward after the top 2, and could be a good target for the Devils if he is likely to come over to North America soon.

Yeah, let’s waste a top pick on a guy not committed to staying in the US. Let’s give him a 17 year contract too!!!

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2 hours ago, MadDog2020 said:

If we pick 3rd, no way am I picking that kid with those rumors. Give me Byram at 3 all day if we pick there. 

Agree with this. He’s got 2 more years on his KHL contract so he’s not coming over anytime soon. His numbers are nothing exciting either. 

If we can’t get Hughes or Kakko, take Byram and start building the defense up. 

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Posted (edited)

its really scary cause any mock draft or rankings you look at... it's basically Hughes and Kakko 1 and 2... then from 3 to 10 it's completely random and all over... some have a dude #3 and he's #9 somewhere else... there's no clear #3

so basically i'd really appreciate if we could get #1 or #2 so we don't have to go through all that exercise of analyzing them all

 

Edited by SterioDesign
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40 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

its really scary cause any mock draft or rankings you look at... it's basically Hughes and Kakko 1 and 2... then from 3 to 10 it's completely random and all over... some have a dude #3 and he's #9 somewhere else... there's no clear #3

so basically i'd really appreciate if we could get #1 or #2 so we don't have to go through all that exercise of analyzing them all

 

#2 would be just fine with me. We take whoever doesn’t go 1OA, and we don’t have to second guess the pick. 

Thankfully we haven’t had to do that with Nico/Patrick. 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/2/2019 at 5:43 PM, Daniel said:

I guess you just have to see him play, cause I don’t see what’s there that says he’s a future superstar.  He has barely cracked the KHL and doesn’t really seem to be crushing the lower level leagues there.  Didn’t even seem like he dominated at the World Juniors.  

Dunno, sounds like a case of people trying to get the next Kucharov-type unicorn.

At the U20's this year his role was somewhat limited, he was mostly on the 3rd line and didn't get much PP time behind Kostin, Denisenko, and Kravtsov, so I think the fact he was able to get three points on that team is actually very commendable and when he was on the ice I thought he was one of Russia's best players. From a production angle though, he had the best Hlinka tournament in history with 8 goals and 11 points in 5 games. He was so show-stoppingly good at that tournament, and he's been at minimum a point-per-game guy at every other international tournament he's played in. The KHL and it's lower leagues make it a little harder to gauge production because scoring is so low over there, but I think he's looked really good in the VHL and has even scored a few highlight reelers while in that league, which is basically the KHL's version of the AHL. I really believe in that kid, I'm willing to wait the two years for him to come over if that's what it takes.

Also, these are his highlights from the Hlinka. So, so good. 

EDIT: 11 points*, not assists

Edited by CommonDreads
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I want Kakko.

Whether we pick 1 or 2 - I'd love it if we got him.

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I just posted this in another thread, deleted it, and moved it here -- it's a better fit.

 

For whatever it's worth, a friend of mine rubbed elbows with someone in Devils management about a week ago. When talk of the draft came up, my friend was told, "We'll take the Russian kid."

(And please, resist the temptation to assassinate my character for posting a rumor. Yep, it's second-hand that I'm hearing this... yep, I trust my friend really was told this (he sent me a photo of the guy he spoke with)... but I ain't Ecklund, throwing sh*t at the wall to see what sticks. Maybe the Devils pick him, maybe they pick someone else... but this is what's cooking as of a week ago. Thanks.)

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7 minutes ago, insanity_gallops said:

I just posted this in another thread, deleted it, and moved it here -- it's a better fit.

 

For whatever it's worth, a friend of mine rubbed elbows with someone in Devils management about a week ago. When talk of the draft came up, my friend was told, "We'll take the Russian kid."

(And please, resist the temptation to assassinate my character for posting a rumor. Yep, it's second-hand that I'm hearing this... yep, I trust my friend really was told this (he sent me a photo of the guy he spoke with)... but I ain't Ecklund, throwing sh*t at the wall to see what sticks. Maybe the Devils pick him, maybe they pick someone else... but this is what's cooking as of a week ago. Thanks.)

I’m assuming whoever said this was talking about if the Devils picked third....

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1 minute ago, MadDog2020 said:

I’m assuming whoever said this was talking about if the Devils picked third....

...and was comfortable passing out draft information to random dudes they “rubbed elbows” with. 

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If the Devils are picking third, it won't be an easy selection for Castron. There's Bowen Byram, who is good enough to go third, but I can imagine there being some hesitancy to take a defenseman that early, given how unpredictable they can be. Then Podkolzin, who in my opinion is much closer to Hughes and Kakko than to the next tier of forwards, but has some rumors surrounding him that he isn't looking to come over to America yet. But I think going with a "safer" choice with someone like Cozens or Turcotte is the wrong move to make. 

I would be really happy with the Devils going with Podkolzin or Byram any time after pick 2. Right now, I think Podkolzin is the guy. I'll try not to feel too confident about the Devils choosing him based on that rumor, but I'll take anything at this point!

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1 hour ago, insanity_gallops said:

I just posted this in another thread, deleted it, and moved it here -- it's a better fit.

 

For whatever it's worth, a friend of mine rubbed elbows with someone in Devils management about a week ago. When talk of the draft came up, my friend was told, "We'll take the Russian kid."

(And please, resist the temptation to assassinate my character for posting a rumor. Yep, it's second-hand that I'm hearing this... yep, I trust my friend really was told this (he sent me a photo of the guy he spoke with)... but I ain't Ecklund, throwing sh*t at the wall to see what sticks. Maybe the Devils pick him, maybe they pick someone else... but this is what's cooking as of a week ago. Thanks.)

Ray made the call to select Nico and was very specific that he didn't make up his mind until just before the Draft and only told Castron right before who he had in mind. So even if your pal was speaking with Castron, it still means diddly. No offense. And if he was speaking with Ray, then Ray was just yankin his chain. 

No one knows right now since no one even knows where we're picking in round 1. 

Maybe he was talking about some Russian kid they're picking in round 5/6... another Maltsev/Rykov/Zeitsev/Sharangovich/Poppy. 

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honestly if we pick anywhere between 3 and 6 there's a good chance that we could potentially land the actual 3rd player we had on our list after Hughes and Kakko cause it's really all over from 3 to 10. So very possible that say we pick 5 that other teams just had their eyes on other players that were ranked lower on our list. There's really no consensus top 3,4,5 either, it's really all over

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8 hours ago, SterioDesign said:

honestly if we pick anywhere between 3 and 6 there's a good chance that we could potentially land the actual 3rd player we had on our list after Hughes and Kakko cause it's really all over from 3 to 10. So very possible that say we pick 5 that other teams just had their eyes on other players that were ranked lower on our list. There's really no consensus top 3,4,5 either, it's really all over

We're going to get a really good potential player. Maybe even someone that makes the team 1st go-round. Been reading about Turcotte/Zegras, Cozens,Dach etc. Watched  Sas/PA last night, Dach had a nice goal (end to end rush) Big boy. If you stay with these NA guys, no need to worry about Russian factor. A player getting drafted at 18 yrs old will tell you what you want to hear. Yes, I'd love to play in N.A.! until his agent gets him better deal/promises from KHL> Just looked over previous NJD drafts, we made really sh!tty choices. D. Conte (AND STAFF) weren't very good.

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It's nice to know that we're likely going to get an impact player no matter where we pick.  Very reassuring.

That said.. boy do I want #1 or #2. 

 

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Found this in an article about Hughes by Cory Pronman. It is not concerning at all about Hughes specifically (he's a stud as known), but concerning about all of the USDP players projected to go in the top 15 of this draft: 

"The NTDP scoring numbers are very impressive but some context is required. First is the fact that, aside from Hughes, the 2001 age group he plays in is very strong, with several first-round, if not high first-round, candidates that all collaboratively prop up each other’s numbers.

Second is the lower quality of the USHL. Scouts around the NHL agree the quality of the league declined in recent years in part due to expansion. In the 2010 season, the USHL had 14 teams. They now have 17 teams. That may not seem like a lot, but it’s changed the league substantially."

 

Article is here and there is also an article about Kakko..Wish I had waited to read until we know where we are drafting at, because it is going to add to my disappointment if we don't end up in the top 2: https://theathletic.com/898571/2019/04/08/pronman-why-jack-hughes-is-an-elite-nhl-prospect/

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I'd be very nervous picking Podkolzin... 

the Russian thing is not as much of a worry for me than... too often you can get burned by small sample results... he really didnt play many games this year and it was through 3 different leagues... his numbers are not insane either. Sure it's fair that his numbers are good based on the situation he was in... being a younger guy buried in an older league etc etc.... but still...

You hear too often "his numbers are not great but he has all the tools to succeed in the NHL bla bla bla"

Any pick is obviously a gamble... but when you gamble between "this guy numbers are amazing, let's see if it will translate to the NHL" and "he doesnt have great numbers but it's only because of a situation.. let's see if he can get better numbers in the NHL" is a bit different.

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