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CommonDreads

2019 NHL Draft Thread

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

I'd be very nervous picking Podkolzin... 

the Russian thing is not as much of a worry for me than... too often you can get burned by small sample results... he really didnt play many games this year and it was through 3 different leagues... his numbers are not insane either. Sure it's fair that his numbers are good based on the situation he was in... being a younger guy buried in an older league etc etc.... but still...

You hear too often "his numbers are not great but he has all the tools to succeed in the NHL bla bla bla"

Any pick is obviously a gamble... but when you gamble between "this guy numbers are amazing, let's see if it will translate to the NHL" and "he doesnt have great numbers but it's only because of a situation.. let's see if he can get better numbers in the NHL" is a bit different.

Yeah I kind of agree...Not sure I would take the boom or bust risk of Podkolzin with the 3/4 overall or really at any spot after 2 if Byram (who has really become the consensus top D in the class) is available..now if we end up at 5/6 and he slides....I'd have more appetite to gamble there. 

Edited by Steadevils

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1 hour ago, SterioDesign said:

I'd be very nervous picking Podkolzin... 

the Russian thing is not as much of a worry for me than... too often you can get burned by small sample results... he really didnt play many games this year and it was through 3 different leagues... his numbers are not insane either. Sure it's fair that his numbers are good based on the situation he was in... being a younger guy buried in an older league etc etc.... but still...

You hear too often "his numbers are not great but he has all the tools to succeed in the NHL bla bla bla"

Any pick is obviously a gamble... but when you gamble between "this guy numbers are amazing, let's see if it will translate to the NHL" and "he doesnt have great numbers but it's only because of a situation.. let's see if he can get better numbers in the NHL" is a bit different.

I'd pick him if we were in LA's draft spot, but not ours. 

;) 

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2 minutes ago, Steadevils said:

Yeah I kind of agree...Not sure I would take the boom or bust risk of Podkolzin with the 3/4 overall or really at any spot after 2 if Byram (who has really become the consensus top D in the class) is available..now if we end up at 5/6 and he slides....I'd have more appetite to gamble there. 

Well that's the thing with Byram tho... he's the top D in this class for suuuuure. But it's debatable if he's THAT good and if his stock is not overrated cause he's so far from the rest... ive seen some mock draft having him close to 10 so thats worrying me a bit

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Just now, SterioDesign said:

Well that's the thing with Byram tho... he's the top D in this class for suuuuure. But it's debatable if he's THAT good and if his stock is not overrated cause he's so far from the rest... ive seen some mock draft having him close to 10 so thats worrying me a bit

Yeah, but I see so much parity from 3-10 in the mocks and Byram is rarely outside the top 6, which I can't say for Podkolzhin who is either #3 or falls far in the mocks I've seen. Byram should fill the production box that Podkolzin doesn't for you too since he has produced at a similar level as the top forwards Krebs/Dach/Cozens did in the WHL this year.

Told myself to stop thinking about prospects until we knew where we were picking...needless to say that has not happened!

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Just now, Steadevils said:

Yeah, but I see so much parity from 3-10 in the mocks and Byram is rarely outside the top 6, which I can't say for Podkolzhin who is either #3 or falls far in the mocks I've seen. Byram should fill the production box that Podkolzin doesn't for you too since he has produced at a similar level as the top forwards Krebs/Dach/Cozens did in the WHL this year.

Told myself to stop thinking about prospects until we knew where we were picking...needless to say that has not happened!

that's the thing... i'm in the mindset that we'll pick 3-6... and even there... i truly don't know who i'd pick between byram, dash, zegras, turcotte, cozens... i dunnno

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Posted (edited)

Podkolzin's production is a lot more nuanced than just looking at his totals on the year. For starters, It's so hard for U20 players to get ice time in the Russian pro leagues, let alone a U18 player, so I find Points per 60 to be a much better indicator of success compared to just raw totals.

I thought Podkolzin was awesome in the VHL playoffs, but his raw totals only stack up at 2 goals and 3 points in 8 games, which is underwhelming until you consider that he only played an average of 7:48 per game. Podkolzin's Points/60 in the playoffs stood at 2.88; Airat Ziazov, who led the VHL playoffs in scoring, finished with a Points/60 of 2.64. That's why I say it's so hard to gauge raw production in the Russian leagues, because not only does scoring run low over there league-wide, but younger players are severely under-utilized and their production can suffer due to lack of ice time. Podkolzin has the skill set of a Top 3 pick, and his production should boom with a lot more ice time in Russia. When he's been given the reigns of an international team, he's dominated, every single time.

EDIT: For a reference point for Points/60 in the NHL, Taylor Hall put up a 2.60 this season. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 3.31 Points/60.

Edited by CommonDreads
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I’m surprised to hear scoring is low in KHL. Don’t they play on the bigger ice over there? 

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7 minutes ago, Nicomo said:

I’m surprised to hear scoring is low in KHL. Don’t they play on the bigger ice over there? 

The KHL and it's lower leagues are the lowest scoring leagues in the world, the KHL had 11 goalies (17 if you include goalies that played under 10 games) post a GAA under 2.00, with Shestyorkin putting up a 1.11 GAA to lead the league. That 1.11 GAA also wasn't an outlier, as Lars Johansson and Ilya Sorokin finished right behind him with a 1.15 and 1.16 respectively. The VHL is even more extreme, as 21 goalies (32 if you include those who played under 10 games) posted a GAA under 2.00 with Eduard Reizvikh leading the way with a 1.17. Honestly couldn't tell you why scoring runs so low when they use the same ice the other European leagues do, it's really just a systematic thing over there I would assume with coaching staffs, but that's why I place a lot more weight on the eye test than numbers when I'm looking at players from Russia.

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20 minutes ago, CommonDreads said:

The KHL and it's lower leagues are the lowest scoring leagues in the world, the KHL had 11 goalies (17 if you include goalies that played under 10 games) post a GAA under 2.00, with Shestyorkin putting up a 1.11 GAA to lead the league. That 1.11 GAA also wasn't an outlier, as Lars Johansson and Ilya Sorokin finished right behind him with a 1.15 and 1.16 respectively. The VHL is even more extreme, as 21 goalies (32 if you include those who played under 10 games) posted a GAA under 2.00 with Eduard Reizvikh leading the way with a 1.17. Honestly couldn't tell you why scoring runs so low when they use the same ice the other European leagues do, it's really just a systematic thing over there I would assume with coaching staffs, but that's why I place a lot more weight on the eye test than numbers when I'm looking at players from Russia.

Thanks for this insight! Very helpful. You have plans to update your "Riding Pine" blog with updated rankings/mocks etc? 

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1 minute ago, Steadevils said:

Thanks for this insight! Very helpful. You have plans to update your "Riding Pine" blog with updated rankings/mocks etc? 

For sure, I've been working on getting my final rankings finalized (which nailing down my Top 10 has been really hard this year) and I'll also be posting my yearly draft guide before the draft.

I'm also writing for DobberProspects now as well, so my writing time has kind of been split between those two platforms as well :cheers:

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2 hours ago, CommonDreads said:

Podkolzin's production is a lot more nuanced than just looking at his totals on the year. For starters, It's so hard for U20 players to get ice time in the Russian pro leagues, let alone a U18 player, so I find Points per 60 to be a much better indicator of success compared to just raw totals.

I thought Podkolzin was awesome in the VHL playoffs, but his raw totals only stack up at 2 goals and 3 points in 8 games, which is underwhelming until you consider that he only played an average of 7:48 per game. Podkolzin's Points/60 in the playoffs stood at 2.88; Airat Ziazov, who led the VHL playoffs in scoring, finished with a Points/60 of 2.64. That's why I say it's so hard to gauge raw production in the Russian leagues, because not only does scoring run low over there league-wide, but younger players are severely under-utilized and their production can suffer due to lack of ice time. Podkolzin has the skill set of a Top 3 pick, and his production should boom with a lot more ice time in Russia. When he's been given the reigns of an international team, he's dominated, every single time.

EDIT: For a reference point for Points/60 in the NHL, Taylor Hall put up a 2.60 this season. Nikita Kucherov led the league with 3.31 Points/60.

Yeah for sure and i get all that. But you still need to project a lot. You also don't know how those guys pace themselves through a full season playing 50+ games. It's not to say they can't do it or wtv. Rantanen was in a similar situation and not showing great numbers and we all know he turned out great. It's just worrying me that you need to project to imagine a result rather than already seeing the guy can and already did it

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Posted (edited)

If it hasn't been said yet, I hope teams have finally learned their lesson when it comes to size in today's NHL. Because I'm pretty sure Cole Caufield is going to be a prolific NHL scorer. If he drops in the draft, it'll be awfully dumb.

There was no excuse that DeBrincat slid, he tore up the OHL as a teenager, hopefully the same doesn't happen to Cole.

Edited by Neb00rs

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56 minutes ago, Neb00rs said:

If it hasn't been said yet, I hope teams have finally learned their lesson when it comes to size in today's NHL. Because I'm pretty sure Cole Caufield is going to be a prolific NHL scorer. If he drops in the draft, it'll be awfully dumb.

There was no excuse that DeBrincat slid, he tore up the OHL as a teenager, hopefully the same doesn't happen to Cole.

well actually i hope they didnt learn that and that he falls to us at #34 lol

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3 minutes ago, SterioDesign said:

well actually i hope they didnt learn that and that he falls to us at #34 lol

I was thinking the same thing. 

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What a difference winning the #1 pick makes. 

 

The talk earlier was about Byram, Cozens, Zegras, and others...

 

Now the focus has shifted to Pick #34 of the 2nd round since the first round has been taken care of. 

 

Love it!

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4 hours ago, glenwo2 said:

What a difference winning the #1 pick makes. 

 

The talk earlier was about Byram, Cozens, Zegras, and others...

 

Now the focus has shifted to Pick #34 of the 2nd round since the first round has been taken care of. 

 

Love it!

It's good to be us!

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According to Masisak of the athletic, if Boston loses to CBJ, the Devils would have picks #1, #34, #54 and #55. Options range from:

1. Taking 4 of the top 55 prospects in one draft class

2. Trading one or two picks for a current NHl'er

3. Trading two picks to move up into the mid-late first round after picking at #1

Not too shabby.

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2 hours ago, NLinfante said:

According to Masisak of the athletic, if Boston loses to CBJ, the Devils would have picks #1, #34, #54 and #55. Options range from:

1. Taking 4 of the top 55 prospects in one draft class

2. Trading one or two picks for a current NHl'er

3. Trading two picks to move up into the mid-late first round after picking at #1

Not too shabby.

Damn this is like me playing NHL 2019 Be A GM Mode.

We're loaded.

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2 hours ago, NLinfante said:

According to Masisak of the athletic, if Boston loses to CBJ, the Devils would have picks #1, #34, #54 and #55. Options range from:

1. Taking 4 of the top 55 prospects in one draft class

2. Trading one or two picks for a current NHl'er

3. Trading two picks to move up into the mid-late first round after picking at #1

Not too shabby.

 

Hmmm.....

 

#1 would be the safe choice.   Stock up on more young talent and go from there.

 

#2 is kind of risky as it depends on what NHL'er we are going for and how much IN ADDITION the Devils would have to add in order to get that player ('cause I doubt anyone of actual QUALITY would be had for just draft picks)

 

#3 is intriguing but only if Boston loses to CBJ.   Having back to back picks like that (54 and 55) is an interesting package to offer another team looking to trade down.   Don't think the Devils will have enough to trade up back into the 1st round unless they give up ALL their picks, though. 

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Interesting info from this guy who posts on HF Boards who occasionally gets inside information from the team, although less than he used to:

So we might also see a small trade down with one of those bottom second rounders in exchange for draft picks in 2021 or 22. 

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23 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Interesting info from this guy who posts on HF Boards who occasionally gets inside information from the team, although less than he used to:

So we might also see a small trade down with one of those bottom second rounders in exchange for draft picks in 2021 or 22. 

Very interesting.   Shero is always many steps ahead of the game here.   

 

He obviously wants to be in control of who he would have to give up to Seattle.

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1 hour ago, glenwo2 said:

 

Hmmm.....

 

#1 would be the safe choice.   Stock up on more young talent and go from there.

 

#2 is kind of risky as it depends on what NHL'er we are going for and how much IN ADDITION the Devils would have to add in order to get that player ('cause I doubt anyone of actual QUALITY would be had for just draft picks)

 

#3 is intriguing but only if Boston loses to CBJ.   Having back to back picks like that (54 and 55) is an interesting package to offer another team looking to trade down.   Don't think the Devils will have enough to trade up back into the 1st round unless they give up ALL their picks, though. 

Both Palms and MoJo were acquired for picks only.  Palms is clearly a quality player.  MoJo was coming off a 58-point season when Shero dealt for him.  He didn’t work out, but he definitely was a quality player prior to things not working out for him here.

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3 minutes ago, Colorado Rockies 1976 said:

Both Palms and MoJo were acquired for picks only.  Palms is clearly a quality player.  MoJo was coming off a 58-point season when Shero dealt for him.  He didn’t work out, but he definitely was a quality player prior to things not working out for him here.

This is why I trust in Shero's judgement and why I am not a GM while he is.

 

We were not supposed to end up with Quality NHL'ers for basically Peanuts (Draft picks) and yet we did.

 

If he decides to go the #2 route, maybe he can work some of his magic again and get us another quality player....but I would rather he consider #1 or #3.  

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2 minutes ago, glenwo2 said:

This is why I trust in Shero's judgement and why I am not a GM while he is.

 

We were not supposed to end up with Quality NHL'ers for basically Peanuts (Draft picks) and yet we did.

 

If he decides to go the #2 route, maybe he can work some of his magic again and get us another quality player....but I would rather he consider #1 or #3.  

What’s nice is when you’re in the position that the Devils are (lots of picks and loads of cap space), you can sometimes make a good deal with a team struggling with the cap, who simply don’t want to dole out extensions to certain players (or keep existing money)...Palms was a RFA-to-be, and MoJo was a UFA-to-be with two seasons left.  I’d have to see what kind of players are out there like that on cap-strapped teams, that Shero might be willing to deal picks for.

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